conflict termination

Post-2014 Afghanistan: Another King Upon an Ant Hill

Peter J. Munson — Fri, 05 Jul 2013 07:30:00 +0000

Post-2014 Afghanistan: Another King Upon an Ant Hill Peter J. Munson Fri, 07/05/2013 - 3:30am

Avoid the Charlie Wilson complex: guilt over the cries of ‘abandoning Afghanistan’ and deciding not to spend billions more of taxpayer’s money on a hop-scotch of social development programs.

Leaving Afghanistan: Base Closure at the Tactical Level

Peter J. Munson — Fri, 21 Jun 2013 07:30:00 +0000

Leaving Afghanistan: Base Closure at the Tactical Level Peter J. Munson Fri, 06/21/2013 - 3:30am

At present, for every US Soldier there is at least one 20-foot container of equipment in Afghanistan; a quantity that cannot be overemphasized as our military begins to face the challenges of retrograde in earnest.

Detour Needed: The 'New Silk Road' and a False Hope for a Troubled Afghanistan

Peter J. Munson — Thu, 20 Jun 2013 07:30:00 +0000

Detour Needed: The 'New Silk Road' and a False Hope for a Troubled Afghanistan Peter J. Munson Thu, 06/20/2013 - 3:30am

While impressive on paper, in practice the NSR is a hollow concept that will not translate into any substantial economic benefits for Central Asians, Afghans, or Pakistanis.

Cautious Optimism

Peter J. Munson — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 07:30:00 +0000

Cautious Optimism Peter J. Munson Wed, 06/05/2013 - 3:30am

Comparing the final days of the Communist Regime in Afghanistan with America’s drawdown.

Trial by Fire in Afghanistan

Peter J. Munson — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 19:00:00 +0000

Trial by Fire in Afghanistan

As the endgame in Afghanistan nears, debate over the pace of withdrawal has intensified. Commanders in Afghanistan worried about ground conditions have argued for a slow transition. Some officials in Congress and the White House have pushed for an accelerated withdrawal, citing political concerns about declining popular support for the war effort.

Few have argued for a faster withdrawal based on what is best for Afghanistan. The proponents of a more gradual transition argue that pulling out too quickly could lead to a split in the army, mass defections, or even the collapse of the government. These are real possibilities. What is certain is that at some point in the near future, western troops will depart and the Afghan army and police will face a trial by fire.

It would be better for Afghanistan to face that trial sooner rather than later, before the Taliban manage to recover from the surge of US forces and while there is still time for the government to adjust to independence. Continuing with the current gradualist effort will only delay the inevitable and give the Taliban time to prepare for another offensive.

There is little additional value to be gained from another year or two of advising and training at the tactical level. If after more than a decade the Afghan security forces cannot operate without foreign partners and embedded advisors, they will never be able to.

For years now, US and NATO forces have operated closely with their Afghan partners – patrolling alongside them, supporting them logistically, and helping them plan and execute operations. Afghan soldiers and police have taken heavy casualties and fought bravely and well.

Yet, rarely have Afghan units been truly tested in fully independent operations, for fear they might fail. With few exceptions, Afghans have operated only under the comfortable umbrella of western combat forces. They have come to expect that western troops will rescue them if they get into a bind and give them fuel and ammunition if they run out. In the words of one Afghan army officer in Helmand, "we like drinking the American milk."

The potential for the Afghans to stand on their own will remain in doubt until they have demonstrated their ability to do so. As long as large numbers of foreign troops remain embedded in the Afghan army and police, the perception that western forces are propping up the security forces will persist, as will the growing belief that they will collapse as soon as the bulk of US and NATO troops depart.

These perceptions are among the Taliban's main advantages. They are also a major obstacle to successful negotiations. The Taliban have little reason to come to the bargaining table as long as they believe the Kabul government will not survive the departure of western troops.

Commanders in Afghanistan are understandably cautious about pulling back too quickly. No one wants to see an Afghan army battalion or district police force fail, given the amount of blood, treasure, and sheer grit that has been devoted to raising them. So far, these fears have not been realized. Helmand, for example, where the number of US Marines has been cut by more than two thirds, remains stable.

Instead of causing chaos, the draw-down has forced the US and NATO to do things they should have done years ago – such as handing greater responsibility to Afghan forces, conducting fewer operations on their own, and refraining from pushing into remote areas that the Afghan government has no intention of securing on its own. Above all, the draw-down has compelled the US pursue a political solution after more than a decade of war.

As any good parent or teacher knows, the bird must leave the nest before it can learn how to fly. When ordinary Afghans see that their army and police can function with minimal foreign support, they will have greater confidence in the future and the Taliban will not seem so frightening.

It is time to pull US forces out of Afghanistan’s towns and villages and out of tactical army and police units. The US and NATO should continue to provide the Afghan security forces with whatever they need, in terms of material support and over-watch, but should no longer patrol or train with Afghan forces or live with them on small, remote bases.

Peter J. Munson Tue, 01/15/2013 - 2:00pm

Transition in Afghanistan: A War of Perceptions

Peter J. Munson — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 08:30:00 +0000

Transition in Afghanistan: A War of Perceptions Peter J. Munson Thu, 01/10/2013 - 3:30am

The war in Afghanistan is a war of perceptions on progress made thus far. A widening gap in perceptions will complicate the transition .

Philippines: Bangsamoro, A Triumph of Western Diplomacy?

Peter J. Munson — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 10:30:00 +0000

Philippines: Bangsamoro, A Triumph of Western Diplomacy? Peter J. Munson Thu, 01/03/2013 - 5:30am

This diplomatic triumph is due in large part to legal advances in international relations, peace processes, mediation and conflict resolution designed and applied by Western powers in other conflict-affected areas around the world.

Prestige, Escalation, and Conflict Termination

Peter J. Munson — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 09:27:32 +0000

Prestige, Escalation, and Conflict Termination Peter J. Munson Tue, 07/31/2012 - 5:27am

A look at decision-making in Vietnam.

USNI Debate on Afghanistan End Game: Stavridis Weighs In

Peter J. Munson — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 19:45:39 +0000

USNI Debate on Afghanistan End Game: Stavridis Weighs In

ADM James Stavridis weighs in at the USNI blog in response to CDR (Ret) John Kuehn's call in Proceedings to "Punch Them in the Nose and Leave" - calling for NATO/ISAF to conduct a fighting withdrawal in the vein of the Soviets' exit from Afghanistan. ADM Stavridis points out ISAF successes and states that a responsible and managed transition is already underway. Most of the commenters seem unconvinced. Make sure to scroll down to see their counters and you'll find some useful links as well.

You'll note several references to prestige or saving face. On this topic, I highly recommend reading Gordon M. Goldstein's Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam (New York: Holt, 2008).

Peter J. Munson Sun, 07/29/2012 - 3:45pm

Does Design Help or Hurt Military Planning: How NTM-A Designed a Plausible Afghan Security Force in an Uncertain Future, Part I

Peter J. Munson — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 09:44:46 +0000

Does Design Help or Hurt Military Planning: How NTM-A Designed a Plausible Afghan Security Force in an Uncertain Future, Part I Peter J. Munson Mon, 07/09/2012 - 5:44am

How "Design" was used in shaping a the way ahead in Afghanistan.