News

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

DanielRiggs — Fri, 09 Jul 2021 12:15:00 +0000

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Regime Change Is Not an Option in China

2. Does “Deterrence” Work?

3. China’s Nuclear Silos and the Arms-Control Fantasy

4. Spy Agencies Turn to Scientists as They Wrestle With Mysteries

5. The world is a freer place thanks to Carl Gershman

6. Opinion | Could Ransomware Become a Geopolitical Weapon?

7. Pressure grows on Biden to curb ransomware attacks

8. How to Stop Political Division from Eroding Military-Academic Relations

9. Sandra Oudkirk Announced as Director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan

10. Hybrid war could replace ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan

11. How To Measure the Health of Civil-Military Relations

12. The 2021 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List

13. US gov’t extends medical aid to C-130 crash victims

14. An American Force Structure for the 21st Century

15. Cyberspace is an Analogy, Not a Domain: Rethinking Domains and Layers of Warfare for the Information Age

16. QAnon Pivots Its Exiled Online Movement to the Real World

17. Hal Brands - Afghanistan Was a Limited War With Limited Success

18. Opinion | Right-wing anti-vaccine hysteria is increasing. We’ll all pay the price.

19. Xinhua Commentary: Why Kissinger's secret China visit still matters 50 years later

20. Five years after South China Sea ruling, China's presence around Philippines growing

21. Afghan women carry guns in streets, protest Taliban as country struggles

1. Regime Change Is Not an Option in China

Foreign Affairs · by Evan S. Medeiros and Ashley J. Tellis · July 8, 2021

Conclusion: “Ultimately, what matters is not whether the United States can change China’s motivations but whether Washington can alter Beijing’s actions and conduct. Such an approach might make only tactical progress: neither the brutal character nor the revisionist impulses of the CCP are likely to change. But as long as Washington shifts how Beijing thinks about its interests and how it pursues them, the United States can protect the broader liberal international order—and that would be victory enough.

2. Does “Deterrence” Work?

Slate · by Fred Kaplan · July 7, 2021

Conclusion: “The point is this: In wars, big or small, sometimes it’s not clear how to deter adversaries from doing or not doing what you want them to do or stop doing. Figure out that problem before you start dropping the bombs. In any case, stop talking loosely about sending “deterrent messages”—because if you keep talking that way, and the militias aren’t deterred, our messages on myriad matters will be taken less and less seriously everywhere.

3. China’s Nuclear Silos and the Arms-Control Fantasy

WSJ · by Matthew Kroenig

As an aside I attended a conference today (Chatham House rules) and the speaker (a former senior government official and Asia hand) mentioned that we have proposed establishing a hotline with China. He said their response is that hotlines are a vestige of the Cold War and they do not want to be mired in Cold War thinking and establishing a hotline is illustrative of Cold War thinking. They were not interested in having a mechanism to coordinate, de-conflict, or de-escalate.

Conclusion: “Since the end of World War II, America’s nuclear forces have been the backbone of the U.S. alliance system and the rules-based international system. China is building new nuclear forces to tear those systems down. By strengthening its arsenal, the U.S. can fend off China’s challenge and provide the free world with continued peace and stability.

4. Spy Agencies Turn to Scientists as They Wrestle With Mysteries

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · July 8, 2021

I would not think this is anything new. I would think the IC would always be tapping into outside expertise. That said, I have heard that Langley has the highest number of PhDs per capita than anywhere in the world.

5. The world is a freer place thanks to Carl Gershman

The Hill · by Daniel F. Runde and William A. Schreyer · July 7, 2021

I am proud to serve on the board of directors of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea with Carl. His work and legacy is inspirational.

6. Opinion | Could Ransomware Become a Geopolitical Weapon?

Politico · by Jenny Jun · July 7, 2021

In a word, Yes.

Excerpts: “It may be several years before we see the first coercive encryption used in a geopolitical context. Ransomware was first used in the 1980s, but it wasn’t until a few years ago that it became a pervasive threat as criminals learned and fine-tuned their operations over time. The skyrocketing ransom demands and emergence of new tactics, such as encrypting backups and exploiting supply chains, indicate that in many ways this learning is still ongoing. Likewise, the first documented case of cyber espionage was in 1986, but it took years before states adopted this new means of conducting espionage in earnest.

Given these lengthy timelines, the idea that encryption could be another chess piece in the greater geopolitical game is still probably relatively obscure to national security practitioners more used to traditional forms of warfare. However, increasingly high-profile ransomware incidents like Kaseya and Colonial will get policymakers — as well as adversaries — thinking in this direction more and more.

As the source of wealth moves elsewhere — that is, as countries’ most valued assets move from the physical to the virtual realm — the weapons will also adapt accordingly. Encryption is one excellent tool to hold such connected assets at risk, and soon actors will learn to use this tool to extract more than money.

7. Pressure grows on Biden to curb ransomware attacks

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima · July 7, 2021

Excerpts: “Some lawmakers are urging the Biden administration to use military cyber-capabilities more aggressively against criminal hackers overseas. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) is among them.

“At the end of the day, I don’t think the American people really make these legalistic distinctions” between criminal and state-sponsored attacks, said Waltz, a member of the House Armed Services Committee. “An attack on our oil infrastructure or food supply is an attack, period, whether it’s from a saboteur planting a bomb, a plane dropping a bomb or a cyberattack.”

The federal government’s counter-ransomware efforts predate the Colonial Pipeline incident.

In January, for instance, the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency launched a campaign to prod private-sector organizations to adopt measures to reduce their risk of being victimized by ransomware attacks. And in 2019, the Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity division launched a similar initiative to encourage state and local officials to secure election infrastructure against ransomware attacks.

The Justice Department in April created a ransomware and digital extortion task force with a mission to investigate, disrupt and prosecute ransomware and digital extortion activity.

8. How to Stop Political Division from Eroding Military-Academic Relations

defenseone.com · by Rikki H. Sargent, Lucian Gideon Conway III, and Shannon Houck

Excerpts: “Social psychology research suggests four conditions can maximize collaboration between groups: common goals, institutional support, dedication to cooperation, and equality in status. The first two are fairly straightforward, but the latter pair deserves a bit of exploration.

...

Effective “dedication to collaboration” requires genuine buy-in from all stakeholders, not passive participation. Longer-term buy-in may be encouraged by training cross-institutional teams to develop practical skills to operate with a less biased, cooperative mindset.

...

Research also shows that teams work best when its members are treated with equal status. But as “status equality” in its literal sense would undermine the military’s important rank structure, we instead reframe this to emphasize equal value of team members’ unique contributions, skillsets, and expertise. While academics and military personnel might at first feel intimidated by one another’s expertise, appreciating and leaning on expertise diversity can lead to more successful collaboration.

9. Sandra Oudkirk Announced as Director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan

AIT

10. Hybrid war could replace ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan

asiatimes.com · by MK Bhadrakumar · July 8, 2021

I do not think we have a "hybrid warfare plan" in Syria and I do not think we are going to have one in Afghanistan.

We have used hybrid conflict or warfare to describe ways our adversaries may fight. I have not seen any directive for the US military to design hybrid warfare campaigns.

This excerpt from Frank Hoffman's 2018 article on the spectrum of conflicts is useful. I do not think we are planning on fighting this way: “A hybrid threat transcends a blend of regular and irregular tactics. More than a decade ago, it was defined as an adversary that “simultaneously and adaptively employs a fused mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, catastrophic terrorism, and criminal behavior in the battlespace to obtain desired political objectives.”54 The criminal, or more broadly “socially disruptive behavior,” and mass terrorism aspects should not be overlooked, but the fusion of advanced military capabilities with irregular forces and tactics is key, and has appeared repeatedly during the past decade from Hezbollah to the Russian campaigns in Georgia and Ukraine.55 Hezbollah’s method of fighting Israel as is described by its leader Hassan Nasrallah, is an organic response to its security dilemma and “not a conventional army and not a guerrilla force, it is something in between.”56 As lethal as Hezbollah has been in the past decade, we should be concerned about the lessons it is learning in Syria from the Russians.57

Hybrid threats can also be created by a state actor using a proxy force. A proxy force sponsored by a major power can generate hybrid threats readily using advanced military capabilities provided by the sponsor. Proxy wars, appealing to some as “warfare on the cheap” are historically ubiquitous but chronically understudied.58

The hybrid threat concept captures the ongoing implications of globalization, the diffusion of military-related technologies, and the information revolution. Hybrid threats are qualitatively different from less complex irregular or militia forces. They, by and large, cannot be defeated simply by Western counterterrorism tactics or protracted counterinsurgency techniques. Hybrid threats are more lethal than irregular forces conducting simple ambushes using crude improvised explosive devices, but they are not unfamiliar to Western forces and can be defeated with sufficient combat power.59 https://cco.ndu.edu/news/article/1680696/examining-complex-forms-of-conflict-gray-zone-and-hybrid-challenges/

11. How To Measure the Health of Civil-Military Relations

19fortyfive.com · by R. Jordan Prescott · July 7, 2021

Excerpts: ”For all the debate among decision-makers, academics, and experts, all Americans should recall the judgment of a lieutenant colonel only six years after America went to war. Finding American generals deficient in “creative intelligence and moral courage,” the officer lamented that the lack of accountability was the most dispiriting — “as matters stand now, a private who loses a rifle suffers far greater consequences than a general who loses a war.”

In that statement is the crux of civil-military relations. Trust is paramount, but accountability is the foundation.

The civilian is the conscientious principal and the military is the dutiful agent. The civilian trusts, but verifies; the military trusts but it also substantiates its trustworthiness.

Did Trump disregard prevailing norms? Absolutely.

Did he grasp the imbalance in the relationship better than his more “sophisticated” contemporaries? Yes.

After American forces withdraw completely from Afghanistan in September, the civil-military relationship will be unencumbered by war and informed by the lessons of undue deference – a new test awaits.

12. The 2021 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List

warontherocks.com · by WOTR Staff · July 9, 2021

13. US gov’t extends medical aid to C-130 crash victims

mindanews.com · by Frencie Carreon · July 6, 2021

The photo is not congruent with the tragic story of the PAF C-130 crash. Most 1st SFG personnel will recognize the team sergeant in the photo from many years ago.

The sentiments of all soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines who served in JSOTF-P are expressed by Tyler Wilson here. And all will also recall the author of this article who is a longtime friend of the JSOTF, Frencie Carreon. I think she was responsible for giving the US forces the nickname in 2002 of the "Balikatan Forces" whne we first deployed.

“I have many fond memories while working in Jolo from 2007-2012 with the US military and working along-side the Philippine military. The security on the island was a concern from Abu Sayyaf, but there were still so many people who were working to make a better life for the Tausug people. I continue to see so much potential in Jolo and look forward to returning someday to vacation and enjoy the beauty of the land and the people again,” Lt. Col. Tyler Wilson, then a civil-military operations officer of the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines.

14. An American Force Structure for the 21st Century

warontherocks.com · by Bruce Held and Brad Martin · July 8, 2021

Excerpts: “Once America entered World War II, it took almost a year to enable offensive operations in combat theaters, a year that was used by the country’s enemies to make victory much costlier. A similar timeline may be in effect today, particularly if the nation’s adversaries decide to contest U.S. deployments into theater and American sustainment activities once there, as they are likely to do. This means potential peer and near-peer adversaries may not be deterred if they think they can score an easy win. And, absent a direct attack on the United States, the “easy win” may not be challenged for fear of escalation and lack of political will. Rebalancing America’s military capabilities is required if the U.S. military is to have the resources needed to be relevant to major operations against its primary potential adversaries.

Addressing the imbalance will be a major undertaking that needs to start at the very top of the Defense Department. Clearly, the first step is to recognize the issue, and that should be done by the department’s leadership, accepted by the president, and made subject to congressional oversight and budget deliberations. Getting to this point will require realistic assessments, wargames, and simulations that account for the military, political, and diplomatic consequences of various balances between combat and supporting capabilities. As these reveal the balances that will be required in future contingencies, roles and responsibilities for managing support requirements should be established and enforced. Likewise, capabilities for force projection and theater sustainment should be moved out of the reserve component, otherwise the U.S. military will face constraints on the speed at which theaters may be opened and made ready for operations.

Once the decision to rebalance is recognized, established, and resourced, all the myriad details required for success will take substantial and ongoing attention. Perhaps attending to those details will be the most challenging aspect of all, but America’s political and military leaders should get to work now to lower the risk that history rhymes and to ensure it does not repeat.

15. Cyberspace is an Analogy, Not a Domain: Rethinking Domains and Layers of Warfare for the Information Age

thestrategybridge.org · by Michael P. Kreuzer · July 8, 2021

Conclusion: “It is tempting to draw attention to new concepts by either attaching new terms to them or trying to categorize them with other important concepts. This has the short-term effect of drawing attention in a more familiar, established way, but in the long-term confuses implementers. When it comes to the terms themselves, the label is less important than the meaning. This article has identified domains of warfare as being the four physical domains of land, maritime, air, and space, and the dimensions of war as natural environmental factors of the battlespace that cross and affect all domains, the physical, electromagnetic, information, and cognitive layers. By standardizing this typology, the U.S. joint force and its partners will be better positioned to operationalize cyber power, to understand the need for and purpose of independent military services, and to better integrate multi-domain operations.

16. QAnon Pivots Its Exiled Online Movement to the Real World

Wired · by Condé Nast

We need a public campaign (but not government run or led) to discredit QAnon. Local municipalities need to defeat these wackos at the polls. And one of the organizers for resistance to the QAnon cult should be Christian churches. We need to mobilize opposition to it and we need a non-governmental information and influence activities campaign to challenge, counter, and undermine the narrative and the legitimacy of the QAnon cult, This cult is a danger to America.

17. Hal Brands - Afghanistan Was a Limited War With Limited Success

english.aawsat.com · by Hal Brands

Excerpts: “Limited wars are typically kept limited for sensible purposes: To avoid catastrophic escalation, to prevent an out-of-the-way conflict from monopolizing America’s power and attention, to avoid using tactics that would shock the conscience of a democratic society. And simply abstaining from limited uses of force would leave the US unable to defend its interests against an array of violent challenges.

Admittedly, some of America’s limited wars (most notably, Vietnam) were strategic failures by any reckoning. But others, such as Korea, resulted in more success than failure, by stymying communist aggression that could have seriously destabilized a fragile postwar world. Still others, such as Afghanistan, sit somewhere between the two. All of which means that the careful exercise of strategic judgment, however imperfect, is a better prescription than some blanket prohibition.

For better and for worse, being a global superpower involves fighting conflicts that matter a great deal more to the enemy than they do to the US. The frustrations that America has encountered in Afghanistan aren’t a product of post-9/11 delusions: They are more normal than either critics or supporters of that mission might like to admit.

18. Opinion | Right-wing anti-vaccine hysteria is increasing. We’ll all pay the price.

The Washington Post · by Paul Waldman · July 8, 2021

The Biden administration failed" influence 101." They should have named the vaccine after the former president and they certainly should have given him great credit for pushing the vaccination process to get these vaccinations out to the American people and the world. How could his supporters then not want to take his vaccine?

Excerpts: “Part of what’s so frustrating is that there is one person who could have averted this rolling disaster — and still could — but he won’t do it. That person is, of course, Donald Trump.

And he would even have been able to do it in a way that satisfied his boundless need for adulation. Amidst his catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic, one thing for which he deserves credit is that he essentially opened up a firehose of money to drug companies to develop vaccines.

So he could easily say, “I gave you these incredible vaccines. Me, all me. Call them the Trump Vaccines. Everybody get your Trump Vaccine, because I solved the pandemic.” Had he done that, his devoted followers would have stampeded to vaccination centers. But he didn’t.

Instead, he occasionally and grudgingly says something positive about vaccination, but refuses to put his considerable weight behind it. Instead of leading his followers, Trump is following them.

So is the rest of the Republican Party elite — except for those who are actively promoting anti-vaccine derangement. All of which means that the day we’re finally free of the pandemic recedes further and further into the future, while people are still dying.

19. Xinhua Commentary: Why Kissinger's secret China visit still matters 50 years later

xinhuanet.com

From a CCP propaganda mouthpiece.

Excerpts: “It is indeed a different age now. Ideological confrontation and you-win-I-lose geopolitical struggle belong to yesterday.

In an era of growing interdependence and rising global challenges, humanity has no future but a shared one. Countries worldwide, particularly major ones like China and the United States, have no other viable option than to work together for the common good.

If Washington's decision-makers continue to take China-U.S. relations as a zero-sum game in which they must win by taking China down, they will lead the United States further astray at the expense of both countries' interests as well as world peace and stability.

In late April, Kissinger warned at a forum that strains with China are "the biggest problem for America, the biggest problem for the world," as there is a potential for "a kind of Cold War" to develop between the two heavyweights.

Political leaders in Washington should recognize the trend of the times, pick up the extraordinary courage of their predecessors, and carry forward their political wisdom and foresight to work with their Chinese counterparts and navigate the two countries' relations through the current rough waters.

20. Five years after South China Sea ruling, China's presence around Philippines growing

Reuters · by Karen Lema

China believes in rule by law not the rule of law.

21. Afghan women carry guns in streets, protest Taliban as country struggles

foxnews.com · by Peter Aitken

----------------

Something to keep in mind in today's zero defect culture:

#OTD in 1908, Ensign Chester Nimitz ran the destroyer USS Decatur (DD-5) aground in the Philippines. He was court-martialed, found guilty of neglect of duty and issued a letter of reprimand. It was a different era, so he was still able to make fleet admiral despite the incident.

Quotes of the Day:

"The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead."

- Aristotle

"Once we have a war there is only one thing to do. It must be won. For defeat brings worse things than any that can ever happen in war."

-Ernest Miller Hemingway

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

DanielRiggs Fri, 07/09/2021 - 8:15am

Read more about 07/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

DanielRiggs — Fri, 09 Jul 2021 11:42:29 +0000

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. New USFK chief pays tribute to late Korean general in first public event

2. Desperate N.Korea Cracks down on S.Korean Influence

3. Pro-North Korea Paper Acknowledges “Food Crisis”

4. DPRK Complex crisis

5. North Korea bolsters its crackdown on remittance brokers

6. North Korea issues rare order to shorten sentences of "model" inmates at reeducation prison camps

7. Moon touts S. Korea-U.S. alliance as 'linchpin' of world peace

8. USFK to toughen COVID-19 quarantine rules amid 4th wave of pandemic

9. North Korea rejects AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine: think tank

10. Comrade, do you have a dissenting opinion?

11. North Korea's wacky exterior masks a calculating regime — and defectors like Park Yeonmi share a common story

12. Moon to Attend Tokyo Olympics' Opening Ceremony

13. Brother of late fisheries official asks N.K. diplomatic missions to deliver letter to leader Kim

14. Kim Jong Un Lost as Much as 44 Pounds, South Korean Spies Say

15. As Koreans drop their guards, Covid cases soar

16. The Pope going to Pyongyang: for what?

1. New USFK chief pays tribute to late Korean general in first public event

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 9, 2021

Excellent. There was no Korean who was more supportive of our alliance than General Paik. Perhaps General LaCamera has initiated a new tradition. All new US Commanders will pay respects to general Paik as their first event after taking command (ideally on the anniversary of his passing). Those who maintain continuity on the US side of the ROK/US CFC should flag this for the future.

I only wish the press had used his proper title, the Commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. This is the command that "co-owned" by the Koreans and responsible for deterring war and defending the ROK. The ROK media should always be referring to the alliance commander and only use USFK when it is specifically a US issue. I strongly recommend ROK and US public affairs officers try to influence the press to refer to the correct command and the correct title of the commander. Korea must publicly take ownership of the ROK/US CFC.

Minister Suh is walking the tightrope here - ensuring he shows deference to the Moon administration's peace agenda but reinforcing the importance of the alliance and the combined defense posture as the necessary foundation to support achieving peace (or the solution to the Korea questions).

Excerpt: “Calling Paik the "spiritual roots and symbol" of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, Defense Minister Suh Wook vowed to continue efforts to establish peace on the Korean Peninsula based on a firm combined defense posture.”

2. Desperate N.Korea Cracks down on S.Korean Influence

english.chosun.com

As we wrote in our Plan B recommendation for a strategy for north Korea:

“Any effective approach toward North Korea should be based on two new assumptions. The first recognizes that Kim will give up his nuclear program only when he concludes that the cost to him and his regime is too great – that is, when he believes possession of nuclear weapons threatens his survival. But external pressure alone, although important, will almost certainly fail to create the right cost-benefit ratio. It is the threat from the North Korean people that is most likely to cause Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.26 As former CIA analyst Jung Pak of the Brookings Institution has argued, “Kim fears his people more than he fears the United States. The people are his most proximate threat to the regime.”27 The ROK-U.S. alliance has yet to adopt a strategy with this in mind.

3. Pro-North Korea Paper Acknowledges “Food Crisis”

38 North · by Rachel Minyoung Lee · July 8, 2021

I am pretty sure the Chosun Sinbo is under the direction of the Propaganda and Agitation Department. Will the regime and its mouthpieces ever acknowledge the COVID outbreak?

Excerpt: Although Choson Sinbo technically is not a North Korean media source, it apparently has editorial ties to Pyongyang, and almost certainly got from it a green light to publish the name of the agenda–probably because, while North Korea’s official news reports on the plenum did not mention the “food crisis” agenda, North Korean state-run television’s documentary on the plenary meeting did. The article was penned by Choson Sinbo’s senior writer Kim Ji Young, who regularly explains North Korea’s key policies and issues that Pyongyang itself is reluctant to discuss.

4. DPRK Complex crisis

acaps.org · July 07, 2021

Current food and COVID 19 situation in north Korea: "ACAPS is an independent information provider that is free from the bias or vested interests of any specific enterprise, sector, or region. As independent specialists in humanitarian needs analysis and assessment, we are not affiliated with the UN or any other organisation. This helps guarantee that our analysis is objective and evidence-based."

5. North Korea bolsters its crackdown on remittance brokers

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 9, 2021

Excerpt: Remittance brokers take a 10% to 40% cut of the money sent by defectors, which has made it a popular way to earn money.

This is a way for escapees to get money to their families. It could also be a way to get money to any kind of nascent resistance. While the regime is cracking down in an attempt to control outside influence because it is a money maker it will likely continue. But if anyone was interested in supporting a resistance this would be one way to get funds into the north.

6. North Korea issues rare order to shorten sentences of "model" inmates at reeducation prison camps

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · July 9, 2021

I do not think we should jump to the conclusion that Kim is somehow turning into a benevolent dictator. Note this is only for re-education camps and not for political prison camps. The logic might be that if you are a model prisoner then you are fully accepting of the ideological training. The regime's priority is ideological training to solve problems so this would seem to be one line of effort in support of that.

Excerpts: “In accordance with the order, reeducation prison camps are preparing official documents to shorten sentences of selected inmates, the source said.

The ministry also ordered that, going forward, the prison camps must make “continuous efforts” to shorten the sentences of inmates who “set an example in production-related activities on the road to rehabilitation,” according to the source.

North Koreans familiar with the order have expressed surprise because it has been about a decade since the authorities have shortened the sentences of inmates – apart from special occasions such as national holidays. On the other hand, many people are skeptical whether the order will actually be carried out.

In fact, Daily NK’s source said many people are saying that the prison camps may use the order as an opportunity to take bribes in return for selecting candidates for shortened sentences.

The source added that the order only applies to inmates in correctional labor camps, not to inmates at political prison camps.

7. Moon touts S. Korea-U.S. alliance as 'linchpin' of world peace

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · July 9, 2021

Excerpt: “Moon hosted a reception for the visiting members of the U.S. Congressional Study Group on Korea (CSGK), a bipartisan study group on South Korea, at the presidential office. The CSGK, consisting of about 54 U.S. lawmakers, was launched in 2018 as part of diplomatic efforts to deepen ties between the two allies.

In the meeting, Moon assessed that Seoul-Washington relations were "opening up a new chapter of cooperation as a more comprehensive and mutually beneficial alliance" following his summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in late May.

8. USFK to toughen COVID-19 quarantine rules amid 4th wave of pandemic

The Korea Times · July 9, 2021

9. North Korea rejects AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine: think tank

The Korea Times · July 9, 2021

north Korea will look a gift horse in the mouth and bite the hand that feeds it.

Excerpts: “The North has been expected to receive around 2 million doses of coronavirus vaccines through COVAX, but they have not been delivered to the country yet.

A government official in Seoul earlier said that the delay might be in part because North Korea is not "fully ready" to receive vaccines, such as deciding on its national vaccination plans and the number of people who will get the shots.

North Korea has claimed to be coronavirus-free but has taken relatively swift and tough measures against the pandemic, such as imposing strict border controls since early last year.

10. Comrade, do you have a dissenting opinion?

The Korea Times · by Casey Lartigue Jr · July 8, 2021

Yeonmi Park is getting a lot of attention now outside the Korea watcher community. She is being embraced by US political groups for her outspoken comments against "wokeness." Casey Lartigue takes the opportunity to provide his views on wokeness and US universities.

11. North Korea's wacky exterior masks a calculating regime — and defectors like Park Yeonmi share a common story

ABC.net.au · July 8, 2021

Although it is counterintuitive, there is logic for north Korea to continue the state of war. It is the foundation for legitimacy of the regime and to demand the sacrifices necessary from the Korean people.

Excerpt: The Kim regime has seen off successive American presidents. Donald Trump — after belittling Kim as "little rocket man" — tried a one-on-one approach but despite much fanfare and theatrics it achieved little.

In recent weeks there has been renewed speculation that the North Korean regime is under strain, a new famine looming. Kim has warned people to prepare for the worst ever situation.

There is even speculation Kim may seek to reopen negations with the US.

President Joe Biden would well know the lessons of history. For the Kim regime, survival is everything even if that survival means an unending state of war.

12. Moon to Attend Tokyo Olympics' Opening Ceremony

english.chosun.com

13. Brother of late fisheries official asks N.K. diplomatic missions to deliver letter to leader Kim

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 8, 2021

Not that it will have any effect on north Korea but this is an interesting move.

15. As Koreans drop their guards, Covid cases soar

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 7, 2021

What can we learn from the South Korean experience?

16. The Pope going to Pyongyang: for what?

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 8, 2021

Excerpts: “President Donald J Trump and Republic of South Korea President Moon Jae-in bid farewell to Chairman of the Workers Party Kim Jong Un on June 30, 2019, at the demarcation line separating North and South Korea at the Korean Demilitarized Zone. Photo: AFP / EyePress News

“We’re to infer that a key driver of Moon’s interest in inter-Korean relations is his desire to bring together separated families,” another North Korea watcher, BR Myers, wrote recently in another context.

“It isn’t,” he said. Seventy-six years after the division of the peninsula, family reunions offer little appeal. The number of people still alive who await a turn to participate “is shrinking fast.”

Putting aside the left-nationalist pie in the sky, you have on the one hand a North Korean regime that has been steadfastly communist for more than three-quarters of a century while requiring total obedience to the absolute ruler.

Down south, on the other hand, you have a different Korean society that has been capitalist for all that time – and, since 1987, has enjoyed free democratic elections of its leaders.

Perhaps Kim Jong Un – once he ends his current, apparently Covid-avoidance-motivated total shutdown of the borders – would welcome a visit by Francis, just as he welcomed having Donald Trump show up for summits. That sort of thing can be good for his prestige.

As for Francis, he’s been recovering from surgery but, last we heard, he was up for a Pyongyang journey.

-----------------

Something to keep in mind in today's zero defect culture:

Quotes of the Day:

"The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead."

- Aristotle

"Once we have a war there is only one thing to do. It must be won. For defeat brings worse things than any that can ever happen in war."

-Ernest Miller Hemmingway

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

DanielRiggs Fri, 07/09/2021 - 7:42am

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

DanielRiggs — Fri, 09 Jul 2021 11:42:08 +0000

07/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. New USFK chief pays tribute to late Korean general in first public event

2. Desperate N.Korea Cracks down on S.Korean Influence

3. Pro-North Korea Paper Acknowledges “Food Crisis”

4. DPRK Complex crisis

5. North Korea bolsters its crackdown on remittance brokers

6. North Korea issues rare order to shorten sentences of "model" inmates at reeducation prison camps

7. Moon touts S. Korea-U.S. alliance as 'linchpin' of world peace

8. USFK to toughen COVID-19 quarantine rules amid 4th wave of pandemic

9. North Korea rejects AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine: think tank

10. Comrade, do you have a dissenting opinion?

11. North Korea's wacky exterior masks a calculating regime — and defectors like Park Yeonmi share a common story

12. Moon to Attend Tokyo Olympics' Opening Ceremony

13. Brother of late fisheries official asks N.K. diplomatic missions to deliver letter to leader Kim

14. Kim Jong Un Lost as Much as 44 Pounds, South Korean Spies Say

15. As Koreans drop their guards, Covid cases soar

16. The Pope going to Pyongyang: for what?

1. New USFK chief pays tribute to late Korean general in first public event

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 9, 2021

2. Desperate N.Korea Cracks down on S.Korean Influence

english.chosun.com

As we wrote in our Plan B recommendation for a strategy for north Korea:

3. Pro-North Korea Paper Acknowledges “Food Crisis”

38 North · by Rachel Minyoung Lee · July 8, 2021

I am pretty sure the Chosun Sinbo is under the direction of the Propaganda and Agitation Department. Will the regime and its mouthpieces ever acknowledge the COVID outbreak?

4. DPRK Complex crisis

acaps.org · July 07, 2021

5. North Korea bolsters its crackdown on remittance brokers

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 9, 2021

Excerpt: Remittance brokers take a 10% to 40% cut of the money sent by defectors, which has made it a popular way to earn money.

6. North Korea issues rare order to shorten sentences of "model" inmates at reeducation prison camps

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · July 9, 2021

Excerpts: “In accordance with the order, reeducation prison camps are preparing official documents to shorten sentences of selected inmates, the source said.

In fact, Daily NK’s source said many people are saying that the prison camps may use the order as an opportunity to take bribes in return for selecting candidates for shortened sentences.

The source added that the order only applies to inmates in correctional labor camps, not to inmates at political prison camps.

7. Moon touts S. Korea-U.S. alliance as 'linchpin' of world peace

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · July 9, 2021

8. USFK to toughen COVID-19 quarantine rules amid 4th wave of pandemic

The Korea Times · July 9, 2021

9. North Korea rejects AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine: think tank

The Korea Times · July 9, 2021

north Korea will look a gift horse in the mouth and bite the hand that feeds it.

Excerpts: “The North has been expected to receive around 2 million doses of coronavirus vaccines through COVAX, but they have not been delivered to the country yet.

North Korea has claimed to be coronavirus-free but has taken relatively swift and tough measures against the pandemic, such as imposing strict border controls since early last year.

10. Comrade, do you have a dissenting opinion?

The Korea Times · by Casey Lartigue Jr · July 8, 2021

11. North Korea's wacky exterior masks a calculating regime — and defectors like Park Yeonmi share a common story

ABC.net.au · July 8, 2021

In recent weeks there has been renewed speculation that the North Korean regime is under strain, a new famine looming. Kim has warned people to prepare for the worst ever situation.

There is even speculation Kim may seek to reopen negations with the US.

President Joe Biden would well know the lessons of history. For the Kim regime, survival is everything even if that survival means an unending state of war.

12. Moon to Attend Tokyo Olympics' Opening Ceremony

english.chosun.com

13. Brother of late fisheries official asks N.K. diplomatic missions to deliver letter to leader Kim

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 8, 2021

Not that it will have any effect on north Korea but this is an interesting move.

15. As Koreans drop their guards, Covid cases soar

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 7, 2021

What can we learn from the South Korean experience?

16. The Pope going to Pyongyang: for what?

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 8, 2021

Down south, on the other hand, you have a different Korean society that has been capitalist for all that time – and, since 1987, has enjoyed free democratic elections of its leaders.

As for Francis, he’s been recovering from surgery but, last we heard, he was up for a Pyongyang journey.

-----------------

Something to keep in mind in today's zero defect culture:

Quotes of the Day:

"The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead."

- Aristotle

"Once we have a war there is only one thing to do. It must be won. For defeat brings worse things than any that can ever happen in war."

-Ernest Miller Hemmingway

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

DanielRiggs Fri, 07/09/2021 - 7:42am

Read more about 07/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

DanielRiggs — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 12:52:19 +0000

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice

2. What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

3. A Generation of Afghan Professionals Flees Ahead of Taliban Advance

4. Joe Biden’s Russian Cyber Dilemma

5. New Book Hints at Biden’s Strategic Approach to China

6. Rhetoric Divorced from Reality: Deciphering Biden’s Foreign Policy Philosophy

7. Smith-Mundt as Counter-Political Warfare

8. Competition with China already requires Cold War era measures: U.S. intelligence officer

9. Chinese surveillance firm hires former top U.S. sanctions official as lobbyist

10. The 'Ferrari' of US special-operations helicopters may soon be headed out of service

11. New Material May Power Tomorrow’s Cyborg Soldiers

12. From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots

13. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

14. Afghanistan and U.S. Over the Horizon Capability

15. Green Beret’s Silver Star sheds light on US ground combat in Somalia

16. Thriving Synthetic-Drug Trade Threatens Governance in SE Asia

17. A Special Forces Officer Teaches You 5 Secrets To Overcoming Adversity

18. Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific

19. Sea Breeze 2021 - An Exercise in the Black Sea | SOF News

20. US does not support Taiwan independence: Kurt Campbell

21. The Tyranny of Battle Drill 6

1. The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice

The New York Times · by Alex W. Palmer · July 7, 2021

This is a very important read for all PSYOP/IO/ Public Diplomacy professionals. It is fascinating and seems to expose so much about China. Remember the Meme is the modern PSYOP leaflet and twitter the means for undermining legitimacy through the sensational transmission of disinformation. It may be the active measures tool of choice these days.

As Sun Tzu said, "what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy." I think we have to first expose the strategy and then attack it along with the means and methods of execution.

2. What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

Politico · by Carter Malkasian

There are few scholars who have studied this war up close and personally as Carter Malkasian.

Excerpts: “What we could have done is managed our strategy better. For too long, we set expectations that were too high given the difficulties of understanding Afghanistan and the obstacles we were confronting. Worse, we expended resources, especially in the 2009–2011 surge, attempting to attain massive goals within a few years. A thrifty, humble strategy that could be sustained over decades would have been better than heavy investment seeking wholesale change in a short amount of time. Such a strategy would have muddled through, deploying as few forces as possible, aware that trying to force decisive change would be a waste of resources. Obama basically arrived at this strategy by the end of 2015, having forced down U.S. troop levels from nearly 100,000 in 2011 to around 10,000. I think we could have gotten there much sooner. The end result may well have been the same: The terrorist threat would have receded, President Joe Biden would today be pulling out troops, and the Afghan government would be on the ropes. But in the meantime we would have spent less money and lost fewer lives. That would have been a better outcome, if far from a rousing victory.

For the United States, Afghanistan was a long war but also an experience. It feels wrong to cast the entire experience as bad or evil. Better, I think, to see the good as well as the bad. I would not want to forget the friendships Americans forged with thousands of Afghans who were genuinely trying to improve their country, whether a hard-working farmer, an idealistic technocrat, a heroic commando, an overburdened policeman or a pathbreaking young woman. And I certainly would not want to forget the kindness U.S. servicemen and women brought to many Afghan lives and their dedication to protecting Americans at home. For me, America’s Afghanistan experience is a dark, cloudy front with points of sunlight. The last thing I want to do is condemn it and all those involved.

3. A Generation of Afghan Professionals Flees Ahead of Taliban Advance

WSJ · by Yaroslav Trofimov

Why yes, on one hand this is brain drain. But if they stay many likely face certain death so there will be a brain drain with a different cause.

4. Joe Biden’s Russian Cyber Dilemma

The National Interest · by John Herbst · July 7, 2021

Excerpts: “Effective deterrence, of course, rests on a credible threat of suffering a highly damaging response to any provocation. Nakasone has the authorization that he needs to target a range of Russian entities. He could go after every single GRU hacker and proxy group hacker (taking them offline for a prolonged period and sanctioning them), major Russian firms operating in rogue states (such as Rosneft in Venezuela), key Russian energy and transport infrastructure, and sizable business firms vital to Russia’s trade balance.

The United States may further wish to take advantage of another key Kremlin vulnerability: corruption and a taste at high levels for the “good life” in the West. America’s intelligence community undoubtedly has good information on the holdings of Putin and his senior associates in the West. Why not release a portion of this information as a warning (with a threat to release the rest should a single additional major cyber-attack occur)?

Biden remembers well the hit President Barack Obama and American credibility took when his Syria redline was crossed without an American response. The stakes now are even higher.

Some analysts believe that the White House has been weak in responding to Kremlin mischief because it would like to “park” the relationship with Moscow in order to concentrate on China. This dubious approach is much like appeasing Benito Mussolini in order to wean him from Adolf Hitler. It does not take into account that China has been watching closely the U.S. reaction to serial Kremlin challenges. Letting Putin cross Biden’s redline with impunity would only encourage the China hawks anxious to move on Taiwan. A strong response to this latest provocation will put Putin in his place and solidify U.S. credibility across the world.

5. New Book Hints at Biden’s Strategic Approach to China

The National Interest · by Paul Heer · July 7, 2021

Excerpts: “Given the Biden administration’s mantra—as stated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken—that the U.S.-China relationship “will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, and adversarial where it must be,” Doshi’s discussion of the prospects for bilateral cooperation merits attention. As noted earlier, he says “in many places, but not all, [the US-China competition] is a zero-sum game.” But he adds that “in other places, there may be room for mutual adjustment, particularly over the kind of order that results, as well as collaboration on transnational issues.” Moreover, he acknowledges that U.S. strategic objectives “also require maintaining some space for transnational cooperation.” But Doshi warns that “Chinese leaders have sometimes recognized that Washington’s desire to cooperate on these issues provides leverage for Beijing, and they have therefore linked progress on shared global interests to concessions in the US-China bilateral relationship.” He thus advises that Washington “will need to delink the two and hold fast to the rule that there will be two tracks in US-China ties: one focused on cooperation and one on competition.” It is not clear whether and how such a rule can be upheld in practice. Nor is it clear what room Doshi and his colleagues in the Biden administration will allow for “mutual adjustment” with Beijing “over the kind of order that results.”

Much will depend on the leverage the United States brings to the table. Doshi acknowledges that China “may be able to devote more resources to [displacing the US] than the US can devote to preserving its own order.” He also observes that Chinese assessments of U.S. strategic decline are based in part on America’s current political dysfunction and structural weaknesses. Many Chinese observers share “a belief that the US has entered a decline so pronounced that its status as the sole superpower is now in doubt. . . . Many see this Western institutional decline as largely intractable and believe the West is unlikely to resolve it promptly. . . . Some believe dysfunction will prove long-term.” Unfortunately, these views are not uniquely Chinese: they are shared globally, including and especially in the United States itself. Doshi, however, concludes his book by affirming that “a descent into fatalism is likely premature” because “American declinism” has been arrested several times before. Indeed, he speculates that the vehicle for arresting it now could be a collective American “rise to the China challenge.”

6. Rhetoric Divorced from Reality: Deciphering Biden’s Foreign Policy Philosophy

The National Interest · by Amanda J. Rothschild · July 7, 2021

Conclusion: “During a press conference following his 2018 summit in Helsinki with President Putin, President Trump touched on a central theme of his own trip in remarking: “I would rather take a political risk in pursuit of peace than to risk peace in pursuit of politics.” American leadership is at its best when it puts domestic politics aside, effectively marshals coalitions of diverse nations that otherwise would not cooperate, and delivers tough, but necessary messages to our partners. Leadership in this sense is no different from leadership in any other context. It is measured not by the strength of one’s popularity, but by the integrity of one’s convictions. As the Biden administration develops its national security doctrine, it may benefit from considering this definition of leadership, taking concrete actions in support of its three thematic priorities, and ensuring that the President’s words do not inadvertently undermine his policies and strategy.

7. Smith-Mundt as Counter-Political Warfare

carryingthegun.com · by DG · July 7, 2021

It is very much worth listening to Matt Armstrong on this podcast.

8. Competition with China already requires Cold War era measures: U.S. intelligence officer

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 8, 2021

War is politics by other means and politics is war by other means. Or as Mao said - war is politics with bloodshed and politics is war without bloodshed.

9. Chinese surveillance firm hires former top U.S. sanctions official as lobbyist

Axios · by Lachlan Markay

10. The 'Ferrari' of US special-operations helicopters may soon be headed out of service

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

But what can replace it?

11. New Material May Power Tomorrow’s Cyborg Soldiers

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

12. From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots

The Washington Post · by Shawn Boburg · July 7, 2021

Another bizarre story. It is difficult to believe that any person with any common sense and ability to think critically could "self radicalize" the way this man did.

13. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

WSJ · by Ian Talley

Someone asked me what this might mean for our sanctions on north Korea.

I have been thinking about this for some time. It seems to me that the Administration's priority is on diplomacy with Iran. I think the national security professionals in the administration think they can still deal with Iran and come to a successful resolution on its nuclear (and missile) program. Or at that is their hope.

I think the administration would also like to make a deal with north Korea as well but it will be much harder.

My sense is this. It will not remove sanctions on north Korea for two main strategic reasons: One is that it will want to demonstrate its strength and resolve toward north Korea to counter the criticism it will receive (and is receiving) about lifting sanctions on Iran. It will want to be able to show it is strong and does not easily make concessions. The second strategic reason is to both influence Iran that it will to impose sanctions and is just not going to lift sanctions across the board. It is designed to send a signal to Iran. But the second part of this is that the administration wants to have success with Iran to set an example for north Korea. If Iran does shut down its nuclear and missile programs and agrees to inspections in return for sanctions relief then the US will want to try the same argument on north Korea and use the example of Iran to demonstrate US sincerity and that an acceptable deal can be made.

We also want to keep sanctions in place to try to prevent access to dual use material and to try to hinder the north's nuclear and missile programs by denying it access to resources. Due to the amount of illicit activities being conducted by the north the administration cannot justify lifting sanctions until there is substantive progress toward a deal.

So the bottom line is I do not think sanctions will be lifted on north Korea any time soon regardless of what happens with Iran or any other situation. I think the administration will hold the line on sanctions on north Korea.

14. Afghanistan and U.S. Over the Horizon Capability

sof.news · by John Friberg · July 7, 2021

Conclusion: “Certainly the United States has the capability to conduct over the horizon counterterrorism missions in Afghanistan to hit targets that pose a threat to the the homeland. It won’t be as effective and responsive as operating from a base within Afghanistan; especially consider the loss of intelligence capability. But it can be done.

The advise and train mission can also be done. However, it appears that the political climate will offer a lot of lip service to this OTH training mission but the assets needed (money, people, organization, political will) is most likely lacking. Thus far – it is not apparent that much planning or preparation has occurred on conducting an OTH assistance mission for the Afghan military.

Even if the U.S. got its act together on conducting an effective OTH training mission – there is another significant factor to consider. After twenty years of the U.S. and the international community providing billions of dollars and thousands of military personnel to first fight the Taliban and then provide training and assistance – the Afghan government and military have not been able to defeat the Taliban. The likelihood of the Afghans defeating the Taliban now – even with US and international over the horizon assistance is bleak.

15. Green Beret’s Silver Star sheds light on US ground combat in Somalia

Stars and Stripes · by Chad Garland · July 7, 2021

Another little known story of heroism in combat.

16. Thriving Synthetic-Drug Trade Threatens Governance in SE Asia

rfa.org · by Zachary Abuza

17. A Special Forces Officer Teaches You 5 Secrets To Overcoming Adversity

bakadesuyo.com · by Eric Barker

I served with Mike in the Philippines.

18. Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific

Foreign Policy · by Craig Singleton · July 7, 2021

A wise conclusion: “The ultimate success or failure of the Pentagon’s counter-basing mission rests on any number of factors. Falling victim to institutional inertia or poor planning should not be among them.”

19. Sea Breeze 2021 - An Exercise in the Black Sea | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · July 8, 2021

20. US does not support Taiwan independence: Kurt Campbell

asia.nikkei.com

21. The Tyranny of Battle Drill 6

mwi.usma.edu · by Richard D. Hooker · July 8, 2021

Some important tactical food for thought. Rich Hooker provides us with an example of how SOF TTPs proliferated to the conventional force.

-------------

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

- F. Scott Fitzgerald

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

- Aristotle

"I am wiser than this man, for neither of us appears to know anything great and good; but he fancies he knows something, although he knows nothing; whereas I, as I do not know anything, so I do not fancy I do. In this trifling particular, then, I appear to be wiser than he, because I do not fancy I know what I do not know."

-Socrates

DanielRiggs Thu, 07/08/2021 - 8:52am

Read more about 07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

DanielRiggs — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 12:51:49 +0000

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice

2. What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

3. A Generation of Afghan Professionals Flees Ahead of Taliban Advance

4. Joe Biden’s Russian Cyber Dilemma

5. New Book Hints at Biden’s Strategic Approach to China

6. Rhetoric Divorced from Reality: Deciphering Biden’s Foreign Policy Philosophy

7. Smith-Mundt as Counter-Political Warfare

8. Competition with China already requires Cold War era measures: U.S. intelligence officer

9. Chinese surveillance firm hires former top U.S. sanctions official as lobbyist

10. The 'Ferrari' of US special-operations helicopters may soon be headed out of service

11. New Material May Power Tomorrow’s Cyborg Soldiers

12. From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots

13. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

14. Afghanistan and U.S. Over the Horizon Capability

15. Green Beret’s Silver Star sheds light on US ground combat in Somalia

16. Thriving Synthetic-Drug Trade Threatens Governance in SE Asia

17. A Special Forces Officer Teaches You 5 Secrets To Overcoming Adversity

18. Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific

19. Sea Breeze 2021 - An Exercise in the Black Sea | SOF News

20. US does not support Taiwan independence: Kurt Campbell

21. The Tyranny of Battle Drill 6

1. The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice

The New York Times · by Alex W. Palmer · July 7, 2021

As Sun Tzu said, "what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy." I think we have to first expose the strategy and then attack it along with the means and methods of execution.

2. What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

Politico · by Carter Malkasian

There are few scholars who have studied this war up close and personally as Carter Malkasian.

3. A Generation of Afghan Professionals Flees Ahead of Taliban Advance

WSJ · by Yaroslav Trofimov

Why yes, on one hand this is brain drain. But if they stay many likely face certain death so there will be a brain drain with a different cause.

4. Joe Biden’s Russian Cyber Dilemma

The National Interest · by John Herbst · July 7, 2021

Biden remembers well the hit President Barack Obama and American credibility took when his Syria redline was crossed without an American response. The stakes now are even higher.

5. New Book Hints at Biden’s Strategic Approach to China

The National Interest · by Paul Heer · July 7, 2021

6. Rhetoric Divorced from Reality: Deciphering Biden’s Foreign Policy Philosophy

The National Interest · by Amanda J. Rothschild · July 7, 2021

7. Smith-Mundt as Counter-Political Warfare

carryingthegun.com · by DG · July 7, 2021

It is very much worth listening to Matt Armstrong on this podcast.

8. Competition with China already requires Cold War era measures: U.S. intelligence officer

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 8, 2021

War is politics by other means and politics is war by other means. Or as Mao said - war is politics with bloodshed and politics is war without bloodshed.

9. Chinese surveillance firm hires former top U.S. sanctions official as lobbyist

Axios · by Lachlan Markay

10. The 'Ferrari' of US special-operations helicopters may soon be headed out of service

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

But what can replace it?

11. New Material May Power Tomorrow’s Cyborg Soldiers

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

12. From corporate America to conspiracy theory promotion: How a Minnesota man made a career out of anonymously amplifying dark plots

The Washington Post · by Shawn Boburg · July 7, 2021

Another bizarre story. It is difficult to believe that any person with any common sense and ability to think critically could "self radicalize" the way this man did.

13. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

WSJ · by Ian Talley

Someone asked me what this might mean for our sanctions on north Korea.

I think the administration would also like to make a deal with north Korea as well but it will be much harder.

14. Afghanistan and U.S. Over the Horizon Capability

sof.news · by John Friberg · July 7, 2021

15. Green Beret’s Silver Star sheds light on US ground combat in Somalia

Stars and Stripes · by Chad Garland · July 7, 2021

Another little known story of heroism in combat.

16. Thriving Synthetic-Drug Trade Threatens Governance in SE Asia

rfa.org · by Zachary Abuza

17. A Special Forces Officer Teaches You 5 Secrets To Overcoming Adversity

bakadesuyo.com · by Eric Barker

I served with Mike in the Philippines.

18. Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific

Foreign Policy · by Craig Singleton · July 7, 2021

19. Sea Breeze 2021 - An Exercise in the Black Sea | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · July 8, 2021

20. US does not support Taiwan independence: Kurt Campbell

asia.nikkei.com

21. The Tyranny of Battle Drill 6

mwi.usma.edu · by Richard D. Hooker · July 8, 2021

Some important tactical food for thought. Rich Hooker provides us with an example of how SOF TTPs proliferated to the conventional force.

-------------

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

- F. Scott Fitzgerald

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

- Aristotle

-Socrates

DanielRiggs Thu, 07/08/2021 - 8:51am

Read more about 07/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

DanielRiggs — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 12:36:35 +0000

07/08/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

2. UN: ECOSOC High-level Segment Statement submitted by organizations in consultative status with the Economic and Social Council

3. China stresses support for North Korea after special envoys’ phone conversation

4. China stands by mutual defense treaty with North Korea after 60 years

5. North Koreas are Hungry and Thirsty

6. China’s Strategic Competition Addiction Influences Negotiations With North Korea

7. Widening the unbridgeable gap in South Korea: between anti-China sentiments and pro-China interests

8. North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America

9. Critics dismiss ruling party’s olive branch to North Korea

10. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

11. Brother of official killed by N. Korea calls for punishment of Coast Guard

12. N. Korea's paper reports on coronavirus situations in S. Korea

13. North Korea fails to shoot off its mouth

14. Kim Jong-un's annual mourning proves he's alive

15. Nuclear research institute hacked by North for 12 days

16. Trial balloons galore over Moon, Suga and Tokyo Olympics

17. Analysis: N.Korea reshuffle signals military policy not top priority now, analysts say

18. Armistice issues (and a peace agreement)

19. Asleep at the wheel (recent hack)

20. North Korea orders border walls and fences to be completed by October 10

21. The reason why the president of Kim Il Sung University was replaced recently

1. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 8, 2021

When north Korea finally goes away and we can have access to whatever archives they have (hopefully) I would like to know what was really going on inside Pyongyang at the time of his death through October and the conclusion of the Agreed Framework. Would like to know if Kim Il-sung gave guidance to complete the agreement (as some speculate). Was there disagreement within the upper ranks of the party? Did Kim Jong-il want to complete the agreement or not? Was he boxed in by his late father? Or did they make the agreement knowing full well that they were going to cheat on it?

2. UN: ECOSOC High-level Segment Statement submitted by organizations in consultative status with the Economic and Social Council

There are 396 statements from organizations and individuals in the 582 page report at this link.

Statement number 365 is from the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. This is another opportunity for north Korea to repent, change its ways, and become a responsible member of the international community.

365. US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

The US Committee for Human Rights in North Korea wishes to highlight opportunities for sustainable and resilient recovery in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea after the COVID19 pandemic, particularly relevant to the good health and well-being of North Korean women and children in line with Sustainable Development Goal 3.

The good health and well-being of North Korean women and children are critical under the COVID-19 pandemic and after. North Korean women and children are one of the most vulnerable populations. Both face a lack of healthcare and proper nutrition. Women lack adequate reproductive care and face sexual and gender-based violence as human trafficking victims and as prisoners. Their food insecurity may have been exacerbated by COVID-19-related restrictions. As such, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the international community should prioritize North Korean women and children in their efforts to conduct sustainable development and achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In particular, women and children in detention are often victims of trafficking. Prior to and during their detention, they often lack access to medical care and proper nutrition. The provision of medicine, healthcare services, food and micronutrients should focus on such vulnerable groups.

We respectfully urge both the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China to accept visits by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and representatives of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Their visits would be opportunities to assess the impact of COVID-19 on aspects focused on human security in general, including the nutritional and health insecurity of vulnerable groups in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Such visits could serve as a precursor to conceptualizing and designing a comprehensive, sustainable, and inclusive approach to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. We also urge the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to include human rights non-governmental organizations and humanitarian aid organizations in these visits, perhaps beginning with civil society organizations in United Nations consultative status. This would facilitate a more comprehensive dialogue, cognizant of both the human security needs of the people of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and a United Nations Human Rights up Front approach, with the aim of achieving the 2030 Agenda in the country.

3. China stresses support for North Korea after special envoys’ phone conversation

SCMP · by Shi Jiangtao · July 7, 2021

This should not be a surprise and I think these are expected public comments. China wants to maintain the status quo, e.g., stability. But it would be interesting to know what really transpired in the conversation. Was it cordial or contentious? What kinds of demands or offers were made, if any? But this is the stuff of diplomacy and we will not know until the histories are written some day in the future. :-)

Excerpts: “Liu largely echoed comments by Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week in which he called for the resumption of dialogue and consultation and “phased and synchronised” actions by both the US and North Korea.

He also urged Washington to address Pyongyang’s “legitimate and reasonable concerns”, in another indication of Beijing’s continued support for the North.

According to the Chinese statement, the US said it was committed to resolving the issue through diplomatic means and Washington hopes to resume dialogue and contact with North Korea as soon as possible.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed the call had taken place but declined to offer further details. Price said Washington would work with South Korea and Japan adding that China “has a role to play as well and obviously has influence with the regime”.

The Biden administration was “awaiting a constructive reply” from North Korea, Price added.

4. China stands by mutual defense treaty with North Korea after 60 years

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · July 7, 2021

Again, closer than lips and teeth. The only ally each country has.

5. North Koreas are Hungry and Thirsty

onekoreanetwork.com · by Joseph Kim · July 7, 2021

But not for food and drink alone.

Very interesting piece from Joseph Kim. He outlines an interesting information and influence activities campaign. Note the importance of VOA.

6. China’s Strategic Competition Addiction Influences Negotiations With North Korea

The National Interest · by Xu Tianran · July 7, 2021

I concur with the author. It is at least questionable whether Beijing is willing to invest the political capital necessary to influence the north Korean situation. (but it is more likely not to). I would make no plan or policy that depends on Chinese help.

Conclusion: A"s articulated by Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Washington’s relationship with Beijing under the Biden administration will be “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.” While it is possible that collaboration on North Korean issues could serve as a bargaining chip or a moderator in China-U.S. relations, it is questionable whether Beijing would be motivated to invest its political capital in bringing the DPRK back to the negotiating table under the current circumstances."

7. Widening the unbridgeable gap in South Korea: between anti-China sentiments and pro-China interests

onekoreanetwork.com · July 6, 2021

Conclusion: The Chinese Communist Party will further increase its operations on the united front against the Korean political and economic elite. The CCP will solidify its influence in Asia because South Korea is the number one strategic target that needs to be dominated geopolitically and geographically. And South Korea’s ruling elite is likely to further increase its pro-China drive. This is because China is already the only patron that leftist elites can lean on. But as a result, the gap between the public and the perception towards China will widen. And this will serve as one of the important factors that could affect the upcoming 2022 presidential election in South Korea.

8. North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · July 7, 2021

Well Mr. Bandow has the north Korean talking point down pat, starting right with the title.

It is all America's fault. We are the threat. And a "reflexive" embrace of alliances? Does Mr. Bandow really think we are better off without alliances?

Conclusion: “Despite Washington’s continued reflexive embrace of alliances, North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal highlights the downside of America’s security guarantee for the South. Absent unlikely denuclearization via diplomacy, continuing to protect South Korea will increasingly expose the U.S. homeland to possible nuclear attack. Nothing at stake in the peninsula warrants taking that risk.”

9. Critics dismiss ruling party’s olive branch to North Korea

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 7, 2021

I usually find little on which to agree with the ruling party in Korea. I am not sure how positive President Moon's legacy will be and if there can ever really be detente with north Korea.

What I agree with is that we do have to look at effects that take place beyond the single term of a president. Presidents should be thinking long term and setting the conditions for the next and future administrations. Not everything can be accomplished by a president in one or two terms (only in only one 5 year term in the ROK) . In fact trying to accomplish everything or too much will lead to strategic failures in some areas that by necessity will be neglected while in pursuit of short term objectives.

10. Biden to Temper U.S. Use of Sanctions Weapons, Officials Say

WSJ · by Ian Talley

Someone asked me what this might mean for our sanctions on north Korea.

I think the administration would also like to make a deal with north Korea as well but it will be much harder.

We also want to keep sanctions in place to try to prevent access to dual use material and to try to hinder the north’s nuclear and missile programs by denying it access to resources. Due to the amount of illicit activities being conducted by the north the administration cannot justify lifting sanctions until there is substantive progress toward a deal.

11. Brother of official killed by N. Korea calls for punishment of Coast Guard

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · July 8, 2021

Yes, so many failures but the fact is the north Korean People's Army brutally executed him.

12. N. Korea's paper reports on coronavirus situations in S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 8, 2021

I wonder if north Korea is preparing the information environment for the eventual release of information about an outbreak in the north when it can no longer cover it up. Or is it using the information about the South to further mobilize the people in the north to abide by all COVID mitigation measures and to justify Kim's policies that are crushing the economy and causing great suffering among the population? And of course with no COVID cases in the north (according to the regime) the Propaganda and Agitation Department is able to spin the message that the north is superior to the South.

13. North Korea fails to shoot off its mouth

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee and Park Hyun-Ju · July 8, 2021

Actually, North Korea gave General LaCamera a "gift" by not firing a missile over the 4th of July holiday and allowed him to take command without any provocation to impact the holiday weekend. (note attempt at humor): “In the past, Pyongyang has marked U.S. Independence Day on July 4 with missile test launches and strongly worded denunciations of Washington. This year, the U.S. holiday passed without comment.

In July 2017, the North first successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un described as “a gift” to “American bastards” on their national independence day, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

14. Kim Jong-un's annual mourning proves he's alive

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Michael Lee · July 8, 2021

Did we really need proof of life? The photo allows us to speculate about which members of the regime are in favor and which have fallen out of favor (though not enough to be exiled (yet)).

15. Nuclear research institute hacked by North for 12 days

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · July 8, 2021

The regime's all purpose sword is hard at work. I am always skeptical about such claims as "no technology data was leaked." And of course the "third country" from which the organizations are operating is likely China.

Excerpt: According to Ha, intelligence officials believe North Korea was behind the hacking attacks, which were conducted by organizations in a third country. However, they said that no technology data was leaked.

16. Trial balloons galore over Moon, Suga and Tokyo Olympics

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim and Jeong Jin-Woo · July 8, 2021

I am not optimistic that anything will come of this during the Olympics. But I hope I am wrong.

17. Analysis: N.Korea reshuffle signals military policy not top priority now, analysts say

Reuters · by Josh Smith

I am always taken aback by these headlines which I do not think matches the actual analysis in the article. We should not be lulled by these types of headlines. The military is, always has been, and always will be the priority for the regime. The regime cannot survive without the military. And we should look at the events of October 10th and January 14th to see how Kim has invested in his military.

Ken Gause makes the important point here: "The military dominates affairs in North Korea and there is no suggestion that will change in the long term, but the changes may signal that for the time being, Kim is unlikely to resume nuclear brinkmanship while he focuses on problems at home, Gause said."

Though I would further parse this and say the party dominates affairs and the party controls the military. I think it is a logical assessment that Kim is consumed with internal crises. However, we cannot know when he thinks it is time to resume blackmail diplomacy actions. It could be next year or next week.

And this is also important analysis: “Michael Madden, a leadership expert at 38 North, said that what looked like a demotion could often be part of a routine shuffle aimed at preventing any one official from building up too much of a power base, or an instance of reassigning a competent and trusted official to handle a particular problem in a more hands-on role.

"Demotions are very common things in North Korea politics," he said. "We need to keep in mind that things that look like demotions to us can in fact be something else."

18. Armistice issues (and a peace agreement)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Park Tae-gyun · July 8, 2021

This is the first OpEd or any article by a Korean scholar address paragraph 60 of the Armistice and the "Korea question:" The author references Article IV so here it is:

Article IV

Recommendations to the Governments Concerned on Both Sides

60. In order to insure the peaceful settlement of the Korean question, the military Commanders of both sides hereby recommend to the governments of the countries concerned on both sides that, within three (3) months after the Armistice Agreement is signed and becomes effective, a political conference of a higher level of both sides be held by representatives appointed respectively to settle through negotiation the questions of the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Korea, the peaceful settlement of the Korean question, etc.

The author makes an important argument as to the many reasons why a peace agreement is difficult ( in 1953 and now).

He concludes with this excellent analysis: "A peace agreement requires time for preparation. It needs to contain important details such as accountability and treatment of the war criminal states, reparations and territorial provisions."

19. Asleep at the wheel (recent hack)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· July 8, 2021

Strong criticism of the government for the recent hack from north Korea. We all need to be vigilant in cyber space.

20. North Korea orders border walls and fences to be completed by October 10

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 8, 2021

Another indicator of how the regime is trying to even further isolate itself and protect the north from the outside world both for COVID and information and influence purposes. If the regime can sustain effectively closing and controlling the border the markets in the north are going to wither and die.

But note this anecdote which illustrates how things are in north Korea right now: “In fact, one male member of a labor brigade in his mid-30s was arrested early last month in Kimjongsuk County (Sinpa County) for watching a music video by popular South Korean boy band BTS.

“This wouldn’t have happened if [the labor brigades] were working day and night, but since they are just hanging around three days out of five for lack of materials, he ended up buying a memory card,” said the source. “He was discovered by a coworker secretly watching the video. In the end, he was turned over to the judicial authorities.”

Later, in mid-June, the county branches of the Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security, along with local prosecutors, assembled military construction units and labor brigades in Sinpa Middle School’s field for a public “ideological struggle” meeting focused on the man’s infraction. Local residents also witnessed the event because it was held in such an open place.

While criticizing the actions of the man, one judicial official quipped that he had “come to build a bangtan [bulletproof] wall, but ended up watching bangtan material from the enemy,” a play on the Korean name of BTS, Bangtan Sonyeondan, which means “Bulletproof Boy Scouts.” By mistakenly making direct reference to BTS, the official reportedly sparked laughter among locals familiar with the band.

In the end, the offender was transported back to his place of residence and handed over to local Ministry of Social Security officials, according to the source.

And of course if I were to make a snarky comment when they get done with the wall in the north perhaps they could be hired for work in Texas.

21. The reason why the president of Kim Il Sung University was replaced recently

I guess not even north Korea is immune from college admissions scandals.

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 8, 2021

-------------

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

- F. Scott Fitzgerald

"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

- Aristotle

-Socrates

DanielRiggs Thu, 07/08/2021 - 8:36am

Read more about 07/08/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

07/07/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

DanielRiggs — Wed, 07 Jul 2021 13:49:50 +0000

07/07/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Military weighing mandatory COVID-19 vaccine after full FDA approval

2. ‘China’s military budget much bigger than what it reveals’

3. Biden’s Asia Czar Says the U.S.’s Standing in Asia Has ‘Slipped’

4. DoD Kills JEDI, Pivots To Multi-Cloud

5. Remembering the Geography in Geopolitics and Indo-Pacific Discourse

6. China trying to ‘cut Australia out of the herd’ with diplomatic freeze, US warns

7. The Convergence of Man and Machine, But Better

8. It's Too Easy to Troll Like a Russian

9. These Legacy Aircraft Are Draining the Pentagon Budget. Is It Time to Cut Them Loose?

10. Orphans at the Ready: Toward the Unification of Joint Enablers

11. China's Drive for Power and Influence Around the World

12. Why China Keeps Sending Warplanes to Fly Near Taiwan

13. Domestic terrorism today more complex than threat after 9/11, says DHS counterterrorism chief

14. FBI infiltrates group whose members wanted to test homemade bombs, surveil Capitol, secede from US, court records show

15. Tiny terror: Army’s new SMG packs a compact punch

16. Army investigates culture and climate at School of Advanced Military Studies

17. Female Vets in Congress Decry Proposal to Disband Pentagon’s Advisory Panel on Women

18. What Would Clausewitz Read? Professional Reading with a Purpose

1. Military weighing mandatory COVID-19 vaccine after full FDA approval

militarytimes.com · by Davis Winkie · July 7, 2021

This is a no brainer to me. If there is FDA approval it should be mandatory. And of course anyone who is committed to protecting the force would get vaccinated voluntarily now.

2. ‘China’s military budget much bigger than what it reveals’

sundayguardianlive.com · by Cleo Paskal · July 3, 2021

Bottom line: “Q: Is military expenditure a good way to gauge Chinese military development? If not, why not?

A: No. Never.

Annual Chinese military budget figures revealed at their annual People’s Consultative Congress (itself an oxymoron) are all fiction. The CCP and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) do not want us to understand the enormity of their budget, so they lie profusely.

3. Biden’s Asia Czar Says the U.S.’s Standing in Asia Has ‘Slipped’

Bloomberg · by Peter Martin and Philip J. Heijmans · July 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Some of the U.S.’s ability to compete with China will come from implementing its economic agenda at home and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, Campbell said. He added that the U.S. would provide more vaccines to the region in the months ahead and continue with “high level” diplomatic engagements.

“We had a terrible first half, and anyone who tells you that we didn’t is just not paying attention,” Campbell said, comparing the U.S. virus response last year to a sports game. “You will see the United States much more actively involved in the second phase, the second half.”

4. DoD Kills JEDI, Pivots To Multi-Cloud

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · July 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Greenwalt said the apparent lessens learned from JEDI entail inviting in multiple vendors, which gives DoD choices over time, access to the newest technological capabilities, and reduces the likelihood of timely and costly contract protests, as happened with JEDI. “To me, this has always been the way to do IT,” Greenwalt said. “Get the entire qualified US industrial base involved and have smaller awards until you figure out what you want to do.

”This is precisely the direction DoD seems to be moving with JWCC. “A single vendor cloud does not meet our requirements,” Sherman said.

As for the path forward, Sherman said direct awards for the October RFP will be announced in April 2022. JWCC contracts will not exceed five years, with a three-year base and two one-year optional extensions. Under the IDIQ, all qualified vendors will then compete for work on a task-order basis.

“What we’ve laid out here is a clear path to meet the mission needs of our warfighters,” Sherman said. “We’re determined to get there. Every day this waits is a day too long.”

5. Remembering the Geography in Geopolitics and Indo-Pacific Discourse

thestrategybridge.org · by Benjamin Mainardi · July 7, 2021

My thoughts: “Geography – one of the most overlooked and neglected subjects in PME today. "Military geography, one of several subsets within those broad confines, concentrates on the influence of physical and cultural environments over the political-military policies, plans, programs, and combat/support operations of all types in global, regional, and local contexts. Key factors directly (sometimes decisively) affect the full range of military activities: strategies, tactics, and doctrines, command, control, and organizational structures; the optimum mix of land, sea, air, and space forces; intelligence collection; targeting; research and development; the procurement and allocation of weapons, equipment, and clothing; plus supply, maintenance, construction, medical support, education, and training." (from Military Geography by John Collins, COL, US Army RET) The study of military geography is necessary to be able to bridge the civilian, cultural, physical and military divides in all forms of conflict. Geography is critical to understanding the human domain.

Excerpts: “While writers have long touched on the influences of physical geography, our modern understanding of geopolitics is largely rooted in nineteenth and early-twentieth century debates on interstate relations and grand strategy.[1] In the West, such debates were often influenced by the period’s pseudo-scientific and racist ideologies. Geopolitics’ intellectual poisoning by racist conclusions is prevalent in many contemporary works, perhaps none more notoriously than the idea of the Yellow Peril found throughout many of the period’s most popular works.[2] If one is able to separate the period’s racist conclusions from the fundamental aspects of how physical geography shapes interstate relations, there are some notable implications for modern policy.

...

As transportation by sea remains the primary means of shifting manpower and equipment abroad, it is primarily on the U.S. Navy that the burden of an American response to crisis or conflict abroad falls. The fact that, for example, the voyage by ship from San Francisco to the American military base at Okinawa may take anywhere from six to fourteen days is a significant factor in the ability of the United States to influence security shifts in the Indo-Pacific. It is for precisely this reason, contrary to a growing portion of the American public’s sentiments in recent years, that forward basing in allied countries such as Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea are of paramount importance to the United States’ ability to react to and influence regional affairs. This, in turn, serves to enhance the international credibility of American alliances and diplomatic guarantees. Nonetheless, the primacy of American sea power is eroding due to the emergence of China as a major contender in the naval arena as well as political neglect.

Thus—owing to its reliance on the navy as the primary means of maintaining its presence in the Indo-Pacific as well as growing competition for naval supremacy in the region—if the United States wants to retain its ability to influence and respond to events in the Indo-Pacific, it must reinvest in its navy whose force totals have reached a near-century low.[13] Doing so not only bolsters the great power competition capabilities of the United States in the region, but also furthers its ability to deepen security ties with regional partners and fulfill alliance commitments. Moreover, it is through such regional partners that the United States is able to maintain a sustained presence in the Indo-Pacific. In this way, it is essential to American security interests to maintain good relations with regional allies and continue to invest in international relationships.

6. China trying to ‘cut Australia out of the herd’ with diplomatic freeze, US warns

The Guardian · by Daniel Hurst · July 7, 2021

7. The Convergence of Man and Machine, But Better

defenseone.com · by Yi Se Gwon

The three parts: “One approach starts by breaking Convergence into three parts. First, get our main warfighting systems to autonomously exchange information. Second, use AI/ML to change how operational commands execute four types of decision cycles. Third, refocus Army corps and service component commands to use commercial technologies being considered by the military services.

The term “Convergence” is used to mean slightly different things across the service branches; let us define it here as the shift away from systems that depend on manual inputs, human-to-human distribution, and analog written procedures that help determine “who else needs to know.” These systems will be replaced by automated ones that continuously manage the data inputs, distribution, and exchanges in all of DOD’s realms: sensors, shooters, maneuver, sustainment, protection and information. Note that we are not talking about removing humans from decision loops, just changing their roles from inputting key strokes and assessing data entries to making decisions.

8. It's Too Easy to Troll Like a Russian

defenseone.com · by Ivana Stradner

Conclusion: "If open societies like that of the United States learn anything from the history of malicious actors interfering with democracies through the growing influence of social media, it is that the task of setting up an influence operation must be made more difficult. It is way past time for us to re-evaluate social-media platforms from a national security perspective and lay guidelines that will protect both user privacy and address national vulnerability to malicious foreign attacks."

My thoughts: We should understand that today's Memes are the traditional PSYOP leaflet of the old days. We need to empower our young PSYOP professionals to engage in and dominate the meme wars where appropriate (I say again, where appropriate) to support our US national security objectives.

9. These Legacy Aircraft Are Draining the Pentagon Budget. Is It Time to Cut Them Loose?

The National Interest · by Sebastien Roblin · July 6, 2021

A budget decision. But what about the capabilities? Are they still required and able to be accomplished by other platforms and systems?

10. Orphans at the Ready: Toward the Unification of Joint Enablers

warontherocks.com · by Sean Jenkins · July 7, 2021

I did not know we had a Joint Enabling Capabilities Command.

Conclusion: “From the establishment of the unified global command in the wake of World War II to the system of combatant commands as it exists today, organizational structures have been shaped by changing missions and priorities. Although Joint Forces Command ceased guiding this process a decade ago, its surviving “orphans” — specialized commands that comprised its “enablers” — continue to provide critical services when components of various branches should band together to achieve a common goal. Bringing them under a common command structure would improve their efficiency and responsiveness to their customers. It would also vastly improve coordination between the planners, communicators, analysts, and myriad specialists working for these commands currently scattered across the Department of Defense.

Some enjoy the challenge of finding just the right person to perform a needed service. Most don’t, particularly during an emergency. That’s why 911 came into being as a universal emergency number over 50 years ago. The Joint Enabling Capabilities Command, Joint Information Operations Warfare Center, Joint Personnel Recovery Agency, and Joint Warfare Analysis Center were created to help commanders to meet some of the most challenging problems they will face while responding to crises. But, like hospitals, fire services, and police departments, these specialized units respond more quickly when a single telephone number can reach them all. Consolidating these commands under a single organizational structure would help commanders to focus on meeting future challenges, rather than wasting precious time searching for those who can help them meet those challenges.

11. China's Drive for Power and Influence Around the World

rand.org · by Michael J. Mazarr

The 168 page paper can be downloaded here.

My personal summary of Chinese strategy: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

12. Why China Keeps Sending Warplanes to Fly Near Taiwan

Bloomberg · by Kari Soo Lindberg and Cindy Wang · July 7, 2021

Because they can?

13. Domestic terrorism today more complex than threat after 9/11, says DHS counterterrorism chief

Omaha.com · by Steve Liewer

Excerpt: “This is the most dynamic, complex and rapidly evolving threat I think we’ve faced,” said John Cohen, the Department of Homeland Security’s counterterrorism coordinator.

14. FBI infiltrates group whose members wanted to test homemade bombs, surveil Capitol, secede from US, court records show

CNN · by Hannah Rabinowitz and Katelyn Polantz

I hope we are not someday reading a Church Committee report Part II.

15. Tiny terror: Army’s new SMG packs a compact punch

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · July 6, 2021

A very interesting weapon.

16. Army investigates culture and climate at School of Advanced Military Studies

armytimes.com · by Davis Winkie · July 6, 2021

SAMS was the best school I attended in the US Army. It pains me to read this.

17. Female Vets in Congress Decry Proposal to Disband Pentagon’s Advisory Panel on Women

military.com · by Patricia Kime · July 6, 2021

It does not seem this committee was "targeted." It is part of a larger effort to look at all the boards and committees we have.

18. What Would Clausewitz Read? Professional Reading with a Purpose

mwi.usma.edu · by Matthew T. Archambault · July 7, 2021

Excellent essay with some good food for thought.

Here are some of my recommendations for professional reading with a purpose.

07/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

DanielRiggs — Wed, 07 Jul 2021 13:36:42 +0000

07/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Crooks to move from Pyongyang to Seoul

2. U.S., Chinese envoys for N. Korea hold phone talks: State Dept.

3. N. Korea in 'tug of war' with U.S. over policy direction: defense ministry

4. S. Korea's intelligence agency dismisses rumors over N.K. leader's health as 'groundless'

5. North Korea faces food shortage of 860,000 tons: UN agency

6. OPCON transfer requires stronger combined defense

7. Over 600 cyber attacks against unification ministry detected last year: data

8. South Korea’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ Dilemma

9. Xi, Kim, China and the North

10. Why does Moon praise Kim?

11. North Korea creates new nationwide organization to monitor and crack down on food hoarding and price gouging

12. North Korean leaders planning event to officially open Pyongyang General Hospital early next year

13. North Korea facing 'harsh lean period': UN food body

14. Can China Bring North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

15. South Korea reports highest daily COVID-19 caseload in months

16. Congressional delegation urges North for a 'sign'

17. NIS director is trying to get Pope Francis to visit Pyongyang

18. Kim Jong Un’s weight loss befuddles North Korea watchers

19. UNL professor: Marine killed in Frozen Chosin battle was starving, too

1. Crooks to move from Pyongyang to Seoul

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Esther Chung · July 7, 2021

You really have to love the title of this one. I could not resist leading with this today. Spoiler alert: they are talking about the new UK Ambassador to the ROK whose name is Colin James Crooks. He was previously the UK Ambassador to north Korea.

2. U.S., Chinese envoys for N. Korea hold phone talks: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 7, 2021

I think the administration is pursuing multiple diplomatic paths to give Kim Jong-un a chance to act as a responsible member of the international community. But despite the efforts of all the powers involved, the responsibility for the lack of diplomatic progress lies on Kim's shoulders.

3. N. Korea in 'tug of war' with U.S. over policy direction: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 7, 2021

An interesting assessment. I concur with the Minister that the regime is focused on internal unity and economic "development" (development is too strong a word - it is more likely the regime is focused on trying to rescue or resuscitate its failed economy - it is too soon to focus on development especially when there is so little to develop).

But my sense is that in terms of a "tug-of-war" with US policy, Kim is trying to create the conditions for sanctions relief in return for a promise of talks. He will continue his political warfare strategy and executing blackmail diplomacy in versions forms to include trying to exploit the humanitarian suffering and food shortages in the north to drive concessions and sanctions relief fmr the US and international community.

But here are some key statements from the ROK JCS. These should not be buried in such an article as they are newsworthy and important (at least for those concerned with ROK and alliance security). Rarely does the Korean press mention that the north conducts summer and winter training cycles. And yes "exercises and drills through diverse methods" could be interpreted as scaled down training but I think the JCS is walking the political tightrope between ensuring readiness and deterrence (which the professional military knows must be the priority) and the political guidance from ROK civilian leaders.

The JCS said no unusual military movements have been detected in North Korea recently, though it is closely watching them, particularly as the North is supposed to begin summertime military drills in July.

In order to deter such threats, the Seoul military vowed to further beef up defense capabilities by deploying such weapons as early warning radars against ballistic missiles and medium-range surface-to-air missiles as planned, and beef up security along the inter-Korean border.

"We will further strengthen the Korea-U.S. combined posture and will carry out joint exercises and drills through diverse methods," it said.

The commanders also decided to seek diverse discussion channels with neighboring countries to prevent accidental clashes and to ease tensions, as there has been a marked growth in military activities by countries in the region amid an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, according to the ministry.

4. S. Korea's intelligence agency dismisses rumors over N.K. leader's health as 'groundless'

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2021

I missed the rumors of a coup or that Kim "fell unconscious."

But these rumors should always give us pause and make us reflect on the question of if we learned today that Kim Jong-un was dead or no longer in power, what actions would we take? We need to think this through with some comprehensive war gaming to examine possible courses of action then develop the contingency plans so we can hopefully seize the initiative if and when something happens.

5. North Korea faces food shortage of 860,000 tons: UN agency

The Korea Times · July 7, 2021

Some might ask, is that all?

Someone asked me if I thought the US would provide food aid. I think we will probably make contributions through the WFP or other international organizations if those organizations will provide aid to the north. I believe we would certainly help if asked. But I very much doubt the regime will ask. And most importantly, if we do provide food aid (or any aid) it must be within international standards for transparency.

The problem is while there is likely very real suffering happening in north Korea and very real food shortages, the regime will not be asking for aid to help the people. The regime is using these conditions to try to coerce or co-opt sanctions relief which is the short term goal for the regime. While it might make a show of feeding some of the population, if it receives food aid it is likely some or most of it will be diverted for regime use and whatever does make it to the people will be described as a gift from Kim Jong-un and not from the US or the international community. This is why many escapees from the north recommend against providing any humanitarian aid to the north because it does not help the people, only the regime.

6. OPCON transfer requires stronger combined defense

donga.com · July 7, 2021

OPCON transition. There is no transfer. There will be a change of command from a US general ato a ROK general and like at present the new commander will answer equally to both national command and military authorities through the Military Committee. OPCON transfer is a myth. We need a new influence campaign to really educate the politicians, the press, the pundits, and the public in both countries about what will take place in terms of the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command. It is a lack of an effective IO plan that creates friction within the alliance and huge misunderstandings within the political leadership and the public.

But this OpEd gets to a deeper issue about the chain of command on the ROK side and resurrects the past arguments about dual hatting the ROK CJCS as the ROK/US CFC commander. I personally do not think that is acceptable for a combined command and I do not think it is feasible for the ROK CJCS to wear "two hats." (despite the US military commander in Korea currently wearing "four hats." The CJCS has a completely different set of responsibilities to the ROK military and the nation and commanding combined forces in wartime will be an all consuming task and he will not be able to conduct his CJCS duties.

And note the allusion to the mythical "Pershing rule" of the US in the concluding paragraph. This reinforces my argument on why we need a strong IO plan.

7. Over 600 cyber attacks against unification ministry detected last year: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 7, 2021

Only 600? Perhaps the north does not think the MOU is very important or has useful information. I think attacks against the military as well as businesses and infrastructure are far greater than the attacks against the MOU.

But we still must take the regime's "all-purpose sword" seriously.

8. South Korea’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ Dilemma

thediplomat.com · by Tam-Sang Huynh · July 6, 2021

A complex diplomatic and national security ballet for the ROK. But in the end I believe the ROK has no choice but to support a rules-based international order and must align with like-minded democracy and free market economies.

Excerpts: “Seoul’s balancing act between Washington and Beijing is unsteady. South Korea has been considering the possibility of presenting a united front with the United States and other middle-sized powers in the Quad. In the latest South Korea-U.S. bilateral joint statement, published in May 2021, both countries agreed to “align the ROK’s New Southern Policy and the United States’ vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific’’ and committed to “maintaining an inclusive, free, and open Indo-Pacific.” This statement echoed the Indo-Pacific language addressed by defense ministers from both sides in March, though there was virtually no commitment to embrace the U.S. FOIP construct from Seoul. South Korea has appeared to avoid bilateral dialogues on the possibility of South Korea’s participation in the U.S. strategy.

South Korea’s endorsement of Indo-Pacific multilateralism is a matter of debate, especially when President Moon Jae-in, delivering a video message to China’s 2021 Boao Forum for Asia in April, called for joint efforts to strengthen multilateral cooperation in Asia. The onus to act is on Moon’s ruling party, as anti-China sentiment in South Korea is peaking, reaching 75 percent in 2020 according to the results of a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center. However, formally joining a U.S.-led coalition to challenge China in the region may destabilize bilateral relations between Seoul and Beijing. The enduring question for the Moon administration is how far it can go to develop its multilateral commitments without antagonizing China, while at the same time leveraging its middle power status in the Indo-Pacific.

9. Xi, Kim, China and the North

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shin Kyung Jin · July 7, 2021

"Closer than lips and teeth." I am not sure of the point of this piece but it is interesting to note the press coverage of events and the parallels between the north and China. And yes I would like to know what Xi and Kim discussed but I doubt we will ever know.

10. Why does Moon praise Kim?

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Green · July 7, 2021

Mike Green outlines four possible reasons: “But he concluded with this important assessment: " Yet given the abysmal human rights picture in North Korea, the North’s continued expansion of missile and other dangerous capabilities, and even the transparently deceptive words Pyongyang uses to describe its intentions — it would be better to find a way to express a pragmatic hope for peace without investing so much hope in the personality of Kim Jong-un."

11. North Korea creates new nationwide organization to monitor and crack down on food hoarding and price gouging

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 7, 2021

Just another indicator of the dire situation within north Korea and how Kim is executing policies that are not designed to solve the problems for the Korean people but instead are focused solely on keeping himself in power.

12. North Korean leaders planning event to officially open Pyongyang General Hospital early next year

dailynk.com · July 7, 2021

Another example of regime failure. The grand opening was supposed to be last October 10th.

Here is an interesting anecdote. The regime does not think much of its only ally's medical equipment:

“Kim has fumed about delays in completing Pyongyang General Hospital in the presence of high-ranking party cadres, but nobody involved was punished. The source said no one was punished because Kim recognized that delays were inevitable given the circumstances.

Kim was furious, however, when he received reports from the Ministry of External Economic Relations in April of this year that officials tried to import Chinese, not European, medical equipment. Those involved in the import of this equipment were reportedly executed, based on the source’s account.

North Korean trade and diplomatic personnel stationed overseas are now doing all they can to send back European medical equipment.

Multiple Daily NK sources in North Korea believe, however, that given current budgetary limits and the broad deadline for the opening of the hospital, some Chinese-made medical equipment will ultimately be used in the facility.

13. North Korea facing 'harsh lean period': UN food body

channelnewsasia.com

So I guess this is why Kim is showing off his new lean hard body. He is one of the people now that his $12,000 wrist watch no longer fits. (note tongue in cheek)

14. Can China Bring North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

The National Interest · by James Hoare · July 6, 2021

In my opinion. No. China will not work to solve ROK and US security issues. And yes, north Korea marches to the beat of its own drummer.

15. South Korea reports highest daily COVID-19 caseload in months

thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post

16. Congressional delegation urges North for a 'sign'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · July 3, 2021

Lots of ideas for engagement and diplomatic relations in the region (as a wise former diplomat focusing on north Korea once said - just about everything that can be tried with Korea has been tried. There is nothing new under the sun). I doubt very much the north will accept COVID help from the US or the ROK.

And "letting Kim out of prison" (by providing concessions and sanctions relief) is not a feasible course action because it will only cause him to double down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

17. NIS director is trying to get Pope Francis to visit Pyongyang

Hani

With all due respect, this is a gimmick. What do we think a visit by the Pope will accomplish? I am open to all ideas but someone will have to explain to my simple mind how this will really influence the behavior and decision making of Kim Jong-un? Can the Pope change the nature, objective, and strategy of the Kim family regime?

And then, why is this an action for the intelligence chief?

18. Kim Jong Un’s weight loss befuddles North Korea watchers

Financial Times · by Edward White · July 3, 2021

But would it befuddle "Weight Watchers?" Maybe he went on one of their diets. (My daughter will chastise me for trying to make dad jokes).

But my crude attempt at humor aside, Dr. Terry is correct in discussing the succession plan (or lack thereof). And Soo Kim is exactly right. Kim is paranoid.

Excerpts: “Kim’s health is “the biggest wild card” in assessing stability in North Korea, said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed former US presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea and is now a senior fellow at the think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And with him not having any kind of succession plan, it is a high impact scenario . . . the interest is extremely high.”

...

“Kim probably fears that his adversaries may seek to exploit these as opportunities to weaken his power or, worse, manoeuvre for regime change,” said Soo Kim, an analyst at the Rand Corporation think-tank and a former CIA analyst, adding that he might be worried that any adverse change in his health could signal weakness to the outside world.

...

Some analysts cautioned against misreading North Korea. “It can . . . send a false alarm to policymakers, potentially leading to decisions that are irreversible or undermine our interests,” said Rand’s Soo Kim.

Further clouding the picture of Kim’s health was a photo released by state media this week that showed a packet of cigarettes and an ashtray on the leader’s desk. The image will also have been a blow to Ri Sol Ju, Kim’s wife, who complained to South Korean envoys in 2018 that “she couldn’t get him to give up smoking”, according to Fifield.

19. UNL professor: Marine killed in Frozen Chosin battle was starving, too

Omaha.com · by Steve Liewer

Remembering the hardships and sacrifice of those who came before us.

---------------

"So, let me state this clearly: From where I sit, I see US foreign policy-makers inadvertently committing political warfare against themselves in a gray zone of their own making."

-Anonymous

"German GO at the Global SOF Conference: "There is no such thing as hybrid war, just reasonably good campaign design."

-John le Carre in the Secret Pilgrim

DanielRiggs Wed, 07/07/2021 - 9:36am

Read more about 07/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

07/06/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

DanielRiggs — Tue, 06 Jul 2021 19:22:12 +0000

07/06/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Does the Pentagon Take China Seriously?

2. A professionalized military sexual assault and response program could be on the way

3. Explainer: When is the US war in Afghanistan really over?

4. Opinion | China Won’t Bury Us, Either

5. 2021 World Press Freedom Index | Reporters Without Borders

6. When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never

7. Don't let dictators grandstand with world leaders in Tokyo. Reclaim Olympics values.

8. Special Operations News Update - Tuesday, July 6, 2021 | SOF News

9. UK May Keep Special Forces in Afghanistan: Media

10. Can Taiwan Provide the Alternative to Digital Authoritarianism?

11. Imposing Costs: Unconventional Warfare in the Information Environment

12. Want to Understand Asian Geopolitics? Go Back to Genghis Khan

13. New Tools to Create Time and Information: “Building the Bike While We Ride It”

14. Spies Like Us- The Promise and Peril of Crowdsourced Intelligence

15. Closing the Davidson Window

16. Here's how we can save Afghanistan from ruin even as we withdraw American troops

17. Counterintelligence is as American as Apple Pie

18. Japan deputy PM says need to defend Taiwan with U.S. if invaded--media

1. Does the Pentagon Take China Seriously?

WSJ · by Elaine Luria

Is a budget number the only indicator? And is that the right indicator to assess the seriousness of the Pentagon toward China? And doesn't the Pentagon have to live within the budget guidance of the White House?

I am also sure that if Congress thinks more money is required for dealing with China the Pentagon will put it to good use. Congresswoman Luria can lead the effort to increase the budget.

2. A professionalized military sexual assault and response program could be on the way

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · July 2, 2021

Kind of an awkward title which seems to emphasize "professionalized military sexual assault." Not sure why the headline editor added the "and."

Excerpts: “Austin on Friday issued a memo to the department with a first wave of implementation instructions, including his sentiments that he believes the report’s recommendations should be implemented wherever possible.

“Our courage has to match in addressing this issue the courage and tenacity that survivors show every day when they work to rebuild their lives,” Rosenthal said. “That’s what this is all about.”

3. Explainer: When is the US war in Afghanistan really over?

militarytimes.com · by Robert Burns, Lolita Baldor · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “The U.S. troop withdrawal doesn’t mean the end of the war on terrorism. The U.S. has made it clear that it retains the authority to conduct strikes against al-Qaida or other terrorist groups in Afghanistan if they threaten the U.S. homeland.

Because the U.S. has pulled its fighter and surveillance aircraft out of the country, it must now rely on manned and unmanned flights from ships at sea and air bases in the Gulf region, such as al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates. The Pentagon is looking for basing alternatives for surveillance aircraft and other assets in countries closer to Afghanistan. As yet, no agreements have been reached.

4. Opinion | China Won’t Bury Us, Either

The New York Times · by Bret Stephens · July 5, 2021

Excerpts: “How Beijing’s own apparatus of lies will eventually bring the system down is impossible to predict. But there’s little question that it profoundly enfeebles the system as a whole. Truth, in the form of accurate information, is essential to good decision-making. Truth, in the form of political honesty, is essential to generating the social trust that is the basis of healthy societies. China’s regime lacks both.

The free world has its own huge problems with misinformation and dishonest politics. Yet we still have a sufficiently competitive marketplace of ideas that the truth soon finds its way in. And we still have sufficient regard for political honesty that we eventually threw the bum out. As for vaccines, we developed the most effective ones because we shared information openly, collaborated freely, competed fairly, tested honestly.

Xi Jinping may think that, one day, a disciplined and directed Chinese system will bury an aimless, unserious free world. Nikita Khrushchev once had a similar thought. Something to remember in this time of Western self-doubt.

5. 2021 World Press Freedom Index | Reporters Without Borders

rsf.org

The entire ranking is at this link (look to the right sidebar):

north Korea is only the penultimate despotic regime that restricts press freedom. Eritrea is dead last.

What I find really interesting is that South Korea is number 42 and the United States is number 44.

6. When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never

finance.yahoo.com · by Eric Zhu and Tom Orlik

Some interesting data and analysis. As a pundit once remarked (though in a different context: 'it's the economy, stupid."

7. Don't let dictators grandstand with world leaders in Tokyo. Reclaim Olympics values.

USA Today

From my fellow board member and the chairman of the board of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, Katrina Lantos Swett.

Don't let dictators grandstand with world leaders in Tokyo. Reclaim Olympics values.

8. Special Operations News Update - Tuesday, July 6, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · July 6, 2021

9. UK May Keep Special Forces in Afghanistan: Media

tolonews.com

10. Can Taiwan Provide the Alternative to Digital Authoritarianism?

thediplomat.com · by Melissa Newcomb · July 5, 2021

I hope so.

Conclusion: “This all begs the question: Can we call Taiwan a digital democracy yet? “People are aware of Audrey Tang and what she does, but most people don’t know what digital democracy is,” said Ttcat.

“Taiwan’s government would say yes, but personally we still have a lot to work on. It is from a grassroots level,” said Lim. Likewise, Hioe cautioned that “digital democracy [could put] a veneer of new paint on bureaucratic processes which are still slow to change or [hide] that while some elements of government modernize and are brought into the digital age, other elements lag behind.” Creating new apps to provide discreet services is not the same as comprehensive modernization.

The digitization of Taiwan’s democracy may not be complete, but the efforts of its government and civil society point to a viable alternative to digital authoritarianism. The digital tools and policies to reform its government can be applied in other democracies.

“For China, maybe only one thing is certain, that the propaganda narrative they ran for years— that democracy is not for Asia— is no longer appealing under Taiwan’s progress,” said Ttcat.

11. Imposing Costs: Unconventional Warfare in the Information Environment

mwi.usma.edu · by Otto C. Fiala · July 6, 2021

An excellent article that should stimulate some discussion. We need to write a China companion article.

I would go back to the 2016 NDAA and Sec 1097 and counter UW. Congress redefined UW to not require a guerrilla force (Congress chained the wording from "and" guerrilla force to "or" guerrilla force but DOD and the Joint Staff do not recognize this. Also the underground and auxiliary are not required for UW but the when UW is conducted the functions of an underground or auxiliary will be performed. It is the functions and not the organizations that are important. But this requires knowledge of UW deeper than the DOD definition.

Excerpt: “The annex also reaffirms irregular warfare–specific missions, like UW. Even though UW—as currently defined—requires underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla forces, a key UW objective is disruption, and we argue that disruption is the objective of Russian OIE. Additionally, in today’s interconnected world—where human perception is easily influenced—Russia’s use of witting and unwitting proxies (instead of underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla forces) to conduct its OIE achieves a similar effect. Indeed, disruption per UW is what Russian OIE accomplished during the 2020 US elections.

The authors make the very mistake of too narrowly defining UW.

2016 NDAA

SEC. 1097. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE STRATEGY FOR COUNTERING UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE.

(a) Strategy Required.—The Secretary of Defense shall, in consultation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the heads of other appropriate departments and agencies of the United States Government, develop a strategy for the Department of Defense to counter unconventional warfare threats posed by adversarial state and non-state actors.

(b) Elements.—The strategy required under subsection (a) shall include each of the following:

(1) An articulation of the activities that constitute unconventional warfare threats to the United States and allies.

(2) A clarification of the roles and responsibilities of the Department of Defense in providing indications and warning of, and protection against, acts of unconventional warfare.

(3) An analysis of the adequacy of current authorities and command structures necessary for countering unconventional warfare.

(4) An articulation of the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense with respect to countering unconventional warfare threats.

(5) An articulation of related or required interagency capabilities and whole-of-Government activities required by the Department of Defense to support a counter-unconventional warfare strategy.

(6) Recommendations for improving the counter-unconventional warfare capabilities, authorities, and command structures of the Department of Defense.

(7) Recommendations for improving interagency coordination and support mechanisms with respect to countering unconventional warfare threats.

(8) Recommendations for the establishment of joint doctrine to support counter-unconventional warfare capabilities within the Department of Defense.

(9) Any other matters the Secretary of Defense considers appropriate.

(c) Submittal To Congress.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the congressional defense committees the strategy required by subsection (a). The strategy shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.

(d) Unconventional Warfare Defined.—In this section, the term “unconventional warfare” means activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, or guerrilla force in a denied area.

In addition, our Congressmen have been very forward leaning (or in this case Former Congressman)

•In a 2016 interview with CQ Roll Call, new House Armed Services Chairman MacThornberry, R-Texas, said he planned to focus the committee on unconventional warfare by the likes of China, Russia and others.

•As part of a larger talk on his agenda and philosophy, Thornberry said he would hold hearings on that subject.

•“Another difficult topic I think we need to explore is, what are Russia, China, others doing in the way of unconventional warfare?” Thornberry said Tuesday. “Not troops in uniforms marching in formation across borders, but the subversion and other sorts of influence attempts.”

•http://blogs.rollcall.com/five-by-five/new-house-armed-services-chairman-plans-focus-on-unconventional-warfare/?dcz=

12. Want to Understand Asian Geopolitics? Go Back to Genghis Khan

The National Interest · by Steven M. Johnson · July 5, 2021

It is always important to study history. We can always learn from it.

Here is what I recall most from Mongol history:“When the hour of crisis comes, remember that 40 selected men can shake the world” Yasotay (Mongol Warlord)

13. New Tools to Create Time and Information: “Building the Bike While We Ride It”

warontherocks.com · by Glen D. VanHerck · July 6, 2021

From a combatant commander: “These cross-combatant command initiatives to create information dominance are critical to address conventional military threats to North America. Through the series of experiments, we are taking an approach focused on producing the elements most important to any decision maker: time and options. By integrating more information from a global network of sensors and sources, using the power of AI and machine-learning techniques to identify the important trends within the data, and making both current and predictive information available to commanders, NORAD and USNORTHCOM are creating time to make decisions and delivering the opportunity for senior leaders to choose better options.

The way the challenge is being solved is also important. Software-based solutions are allowing rapid and iterative development at a more affordable cost. Finally, the series of experiments, by actively including participation from every combatant command, is promoting adoption of the global perspective needed to compete in today’s strategic environment. The next experiment in the series, which will occur in July 2021, will build upon the framework and success of the two previous experiments with an even more complex strategic competition scenario using real-world live data. The experiment will also showcase how the software tools designed for cross-combatant command collaboration, assessment, and decision-making can be used to enable global logistics coordination in addition to intelligence sharing and operations planning.

The next step is to transfer the leadership for these efforts to an appropriate entity within the Department of Defense that will move beyond the combatant commanders and those that see the need, to one that can more effectively orchestrate and direct change across the entirety of the defense enterprise. With these efforts, the Department of Defense will close the gap between nuclear and conventional deterrence options and reduce the risk of strategic deterrence failure. The future credibility of the America’s deterrent hinges on whether or not this promising start can be turned into an enduring reality.

14. Spies Like Us: The Promise and Peril of Crowdsourced Intelligence

Foreign Affairs · by Amy Zegart · July 5, 2021

As you can probably tell I am a great believer in open source information. But I think there is more promise than peril though Dr. Zegert provides us with wise counsel.

Excerpts: “Maximizing the benefits and mitigating the risks of this open-source world requires action on three fronts. First, governments and nongovernmental actors need to develop closer partnerships to make it easier to collaborate and share open-source intelligence. Meanwhile, governments need to create intelligence agencies dedicated to open-source collection and analysis, which remains a peripheral activity in most intelligence bureaucracies. In the United States, the CIA, the National Security Agency, and other intelligence agencies have promising open-source initiatives underway. But these will not be enough: a new open-source intelligence agency is needed. Secret agencies will always favor secrets. Just as the U.S. Air Force was hobbled until it split from the army, open-source intelligence will remain underfunded, underpowered, and underutilized as long as it sits inside agencies whose missions, cultures, and capabilities are all designed for a classified world.

Finally, nongovernmental open-source groups such as Bellingcat have work to do. The ecosystem as a whole needs to codify and institutionalize best practices, create shared ethical norms, establish quality standards, and improve collection and analysis skills to reduce the risk of errors and other bad outcomes. Here, too, efforts are underway. Bellingcat is running training programs, and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security, a nonprofit, is convening international workshops with leaders in open-source intelligence to examine ethical challenges and develop recommendations for addressing them.

Today, open-source intelligence is dominated by Americans and the United States’ Western democratic allies. Many of the leading organizations are filled with experts who are driven by a sense of responsibility, who have exacting quality standards, and who work closely with government officials and international bodies. But the future is likely to bring more players from more countries with less expertise, less sense of responsibility, and less connectivity to U.S. and allied intelligence officials and policymakers. China already operates commercial satellites, and the internationalization of the commercial satellite business is expected to grow significantly in the next several years. The open-source world will soon be more crowded and less benign. Now is the time to prepare.

15. Closing the Davidson Window

realcleardefense.com · by Jerry Hendrix

Conclusion: The solution is rather straightforward and has already been discussed elsewhere. In late 2018 the bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission recommended a steady three to five percent increase in defense spending year over year for the foreseeable future to maximize the nation's ability to invest in new research and development while simultaneously adding ships and aircraft to the current force. From the perspective of growing the Navy in the near term to deter Chinese aggression, such funding would allow the sea service to add new ships while also extending the lives and modernizing older ships currently within its inventory. Such investments will enable the Navy to grow quickly even as it modernizes. Admiral Davidson did the nation a great service by being frank with his assessment of the Chinese threat timeline. We should heed his warning and grow both the defense budget and our Navy to meet China’s immediate and long-term challenges.

16. Here's how we can save Afghanistan from ruin even as we withdraw American troops

USA Today · by Michael O’Hanlon

Here's how we can save Afghanistan from ruin even as we withdraw American troops

17. Counterintelligence is as American as Apple Pie

topsecretumbra.substack.com · by John Schindler

Conclusion: Counterintelligence is as American as apple pie, indeed Patriots would have never prevailed against the British Empire had they not taken the business of rooting out enemy spies seriously. Vigilance about getting counterintelligence right by the Founding Fathers predated the birth of the United States itself and ensured that the Revolution prevailed. American patriots today should keep that in mind when they critique our Intelligence Community.

18. Japan deputy PM says need to defend Taiwan with U.S. if invaded--media

Asahi · July 6, 2021

-------------

“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”

- George Orwell

“In every human Breast, God has implanted a Principle, which we call Love of Freedom; it is impatient of Oppression, and pants for Deliverance.”

- Phillis Wheatley

“The sole end for which mankind are warranted, individually or collectively, in interfering with the liberty of action of any of their number is self-protection … The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not sufficient warrant.”

- John Stuart Mill

DanielRiggs Tue, 07/06/2021 - 3:22pm

Read more about 07/06/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

07/06/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

DanielRiggs — Tue, 06 Jul 2021 19:07:57 +0000

07/06/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Kim Jong-un Resumes Reign of Terror

2. Credible reports of a North Korean food crisis

3. Russians leave North Korea en masse amid pandemic

4. N.K. premier inspects economic sites, indicating his exclusion from recent reshuffle

5. Experts say North could be angling for foreign food aid

6. Few signs in North Korea that the government is releasing military rice stores to the public

7. North Korea conducts large-scale inspections aimed at ending unauthorized trade

8. Arduous March: The Great North Korean Famine of the 1990s (Millions May Have Died)

9. North Korea highlights Kim’s weight loss as food shortage builds

10. Book review: ‘North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development’

11. North Korea's Human Rights Record of Shame Now Includes 'Human Trafficking'

12. US Defense Department says there has been “no change” S. Korea-US joint military drill

13. South Korea's Mysterious Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Tested From Underwater Platform: Report

14. Trip to Tokyo for Moon possible if there is summit: Blue House

15. Torrential Monsoon Rains Hit Southern Korea

16. U.S. informed in advance of plan to use martial law troops to quell Gwangju uprising: declassified documents

1. Kim Jong-un Resumes Reign of Terror

english.chosun.com · July 5, 2021

Just a reminder: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

We do have to worry about "Mr. X," someone with access and placement who may decide to act on his own. When members of the elite feel threatened and have no other option, they may feel compelled to act for their own (and their families' possible survival). It is worth reviewing Sungmin Cho's research here: Anticipating and Preparing for the Potential Assassination of Kim Jong-Un.

And of course if something happens to Kim Jong-un, when we learn about it, what contingency plans do we have in place to execute - military and security plans, diplomatic plans, information plans, and engagement plans?

2. Credible reports of a North Korean food crisis

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · July 6, 2021

I really do fear a crisis that could be worse than the Arduous March of the famine of the 1990s. And even if the numbers are not as high there are no longer the relief mechanisms that came into existence in the late 1990s - namely the Sunshine Policy that allowed for billions of dollars to be transferred to the regime and the rise of the black and gray markets after the failure of the public distribution system. In today's situation there is no likelihood of a Sunshine Policy to bail out the regime due to the sanctions and the regime has been cracking down on all aspects of market activity : closing the Chinese border to legal and illicit/smuggling trade, attempting to stop the use of foreign currency, restricting internal movement, and trying to limit communications and access to information.

3. Russians leave North Korea en masse amid pandemic

The Korea Times · July 6, 2021

Another indicator. Either coronavirus is breaking out or the mitigation measures in place to try to prevent an outbreak are making it for even diplomatic missions to function.

Excerpts: “An official at South Korea's unification ministry said their decision to return home appears to reflect difficulties living in Pyongyang due to the coronavirus.

"We cannot confirm specifically what their reasons are. But as they have said, considering the difficult lives from the protracted antivirus measures, it appears that each country is making their own judgment on whether or not to leave their diplomats and international staff members in Pyongyang," she said.

North Korea has claimed to be coronavirus-free but has taken relatively swift and tough measures against the global pandemic. It has maintained tight border controls since early last year to ward off an outbreak.

4. N.K. premier inspects economic sites, indicating his exclusion from recent reshuffle

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 6, 2021

For those who need to update their leadership scorecard.

5. Experts say North could be angling for foreign food aid

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · July 5, 2021

Actually the suffering of the Korean people is the fourth "tool" in the regime's blackmail diplomacy toolbox. There is increased tension, threats, and provocations. And then there is the ability of the regime to play on the heartstrings of the international community. Now the regime does not want food aid because it cares for the people. Notice the reports of rice reserves from the military supposedly being ordered for release (and there is a report that it is not actually being released). Getting the international community to provide food aid gives the regime and the military the opportunity to replenish stocks. The regime will never allow the transparency required to ensure the food gets to those who need it. This is why many escapees argue that the international community should not provide food aid to the north. One, because some will likely be diverted; and two, the food that does make it to some people will include a Propaganda and Agitation Department effort to spin the aid as gifts from KJU and this will be used to reinforce his legitimacy.

Of course this suffering is going to be used to argue the regime needs sanctions relief which is the most important near term concessions for the regime. We must not be duped by KJU because it is his deliberate policy decisions that are the cause of the starvation and suffering. He has the resources to feed the people but instead he uses them to fund the nuclear and missile programs, and support the military and the elite.

6. Few signs in North Korea that the government is releasing military rice stores to the public

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 6, 2021

An indication of corruption? Have military units instead already sold off their rice reserves and they have nothing left to release? Or rather than release per the order they will try to extort money from the population?

Excerpts: “In sum, it appears highly likely that the North Korean authorities have yet to properly formulate plans to “normalize” the distribution of food rations.

It is possible that the North Korean authorities could suddenly distribute the rations given the leadership’s emphasis on Kim Jong Un’s “love for the people.” However, unless the authorities are able to move forward with the distribution of rice, they may just end up shifting blame for the distribution failure to local cadres.

Many North Koreans reportedly believe that the criticism leveled at the “negligence” of government officials during the enlarged meeting of the ruling party’s politburo on June 29 – and the replacement of high-ranking cadres – are preparations for a massive purge.

7. North Korea conducts large-scale inspections aimed at ending unauthorized trade

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 6, 2021

It really does appear the regime does not want the 400+ markets to really function effectively as they are trying to cut off another variation of "smuggling."

Information and free markets that function effectively are a threat to Kim Jong-un.

8. Arduous March: The Great North Korean Famine of the 1990s (Millions May Have Died)

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · July 5, 2021

Some very good research was done by Andrew Natsios and USAID about this famine (among many others). And Bob Gersony did some cutting edge interviews with Koreans crossing the border after the famine (read his biography by Robert Kaplan, The Good American: The Epic Life of Bob. Gersony, The U.S. Government's Greatest Humanitarian, specifically chapter 16).

As I recall the Buddhist Sharing Movement also gather data that was found very credible by the intelligence community and they had estimates of up to 3 million people dying from the effects of the famine (which is different than saying 3 million starved to death).

But as I have noted we may see an even greater crisis over the next few years that occurred during the Arduous March if Kim Jong-un does not change his policies.

Excerpt (and the operative phrase is "just yet."): “Despite its many current challenges, conditions in North Korea may not be at famine-level just yet. Still, as the Arduous March period makes abundantly clear, such conditions can emerge quickly and without notice. Events in North Korea are such that it is even more difficult than usual to monitor the situation on the ground, and given North Korea’s food insecurity problems that predate both the COVID-19 pandemic and the deadly weather events of last year, it is important that the international community be as tuned in as possible to North Korea’s food situation.

9. North Korea highlights Kim’s weight loss as food shortage builds

americanmilitarynews.com · by Jon Herskovitz - Bloomberg News · July 5, 2021

Kim's weight loss is part of the narrative. But it is ironic that the way we can measure his weight loss is by observing the looseness of the band of his $12,000 watch,

10. Book review: ‘North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development’

NK News · by Peter Ward · July 5, 2021

I think I will still have to add this book to my "to read" pile.

Conclusion: “Overall, “North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development” offers a range of valuable insights and information on North Korea’s economic history. It pulls the DPRK’s experience into a broader context and helps us better understand why it is that the country remains one of Asia’s poorest states.

Although the authors could have written more about the impact of Eastern Bloc ideas in the North, and could have examined the role of elite decision-making after 1990, they nonetheless provide a compelling and interesting new narrative rich with detail that will be of interest to people who want to better understand North Korea’s economic history.

11. North Korea's Human Rights Record of Shame Now Includes 'Human Trafficking'

19fortyfive.com · by Stephen Silver · July 6, 2021

We must include a human rights up front approach to north Korea. In addition to a moral imperative it is a national security issue. Kim Jong denies human rights and commits crimes against humanity against the Korean people in the north in order to remain in power.

12. US Defense Department says there has been “no change” S. Korea-US joint military drill

Hani

I would like to hear this from ROK MND and the Blue House.

13. South Korea's Mysterious Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Tested From Underwater Platform: Report

thedrive.com · by Thomas Newdick · July 5, 2021

Some interesting speculation. I have not seen any other reporting on this in the English speaking Korean media. I must have missed it on YTN News but I will look for it in future broadcasts.

14. Trip to Tokyo for Moon possible if there is summit: Blue House

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim and Kang Taw-Hwa · July 6, 2021

I doubt there will be a trip then.

15. Torrential Monsoon Rains Hit Southern Korea

english.chosun.com · July 6, 2021

16. U.S. informed in advance of plan to use martial law troops to quell Gwangju uprising: declassified documents

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 6, 2021

This is hardly a damning report. But it will be interesting to see how the JUSAPA and those with anti-American sentiment will spin this to try to put responsibility for Kwangju on US shoulders. I always ask how would they have proposed the US stop this? What actions could the US have taken to prevent the outcome?

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“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”

- George Orwell

“In every human Breast, God has implanted a Principle, which we call Love of Freedom; it is impatient of Oppression, and pants for Deliverance.”

- Phillis Wheatley

- John Stuart Mill

DanielRiggs Tue, 07/06/2021 - 3:07pm

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