News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye
2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs
3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress
4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week
5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy (South Korea)
6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks
7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)
8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500
9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic
10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance
11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea
12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration
13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'
14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda
15. 'What to Do About North Korea'
16. Voters lean toward opposition (South Korea)
17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year
1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye
Business Insider · by Benjamin Brimelow
My PIR is to determine how much of the equipment we observed on October 10th is actually operational and has been fielded to operational units.
2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 4, 2021
3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 4, 2021
But still no reported cases in north Korea. I have to give the regime credit for how well it is controlling information.
But will the 8th Party Congress be a super spreader event? Will the members wear masks? Will they socially distance?
4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021
Does Kim want to compete with the media coverage of the Georgia run-off or with Congress' certification of the electoral college vote? Will the party congress be internally focused or externally focused? What message will Kim have for Moon and Biden?
5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy
My four word strategy: "Solve the Korea question."
6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks
Stars and Stripes· Erica Earl· January 4, 2021
We should not forget the Special Measures Agreement stalemate continues.
Excerpts:
“In June, South Korea provided $200 million to pay the entire Korean workforce at U.S. bases through the end of 2020.
The U.S. military warned its South Korean base employees in November that they may face another furlough in 2021 if an agreement cannot be reached.”
7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)
english.chosun.com· January 4, 2021
8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021
Excerpts:
“Of the newly reported cases, eight service members and one dependent arrived at Osan Air Base in the city of Pyeongtaek, some 70 kilometers south of Seoul, on U.S. government chartered flights from the U.S. between Dec. 16 and 29, according to USFK.
Nine service members, three dependents, one contractor and one retired service member arrived on international commercial flights at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, between Dec. 16 and 31, it added.”
9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021
Interestingly it seems the ROK military and USFK have nearly the same total numbers of infections though the ROK military has about 650,000 active duty personnel and USFK has 28,500 personnel. It appears the ROK military is doing a good job managing the pandemic.
Excerpts:
“On Monday, South Korea added 1,020 more COVID-19 cases, including 985 local infections, on Monday, raising the total caseload to 64,264, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).
Up until Monday morning, the military reported a total of 508 virus cases.
Currently, 431 service members are in isolation in accordance with the health authorities' guidelines, and the military has quarantined an additional 3,386 people under stricter antivirus schemes of its own as a preventive step, according to the ministry.
10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 4, 2021
Excerpts:
"On the occasion of the launch of the new U.S. administration, we will have to develop the South Korea-U.S. alliance by realizing early high-level exchanges and through other measures," Kang was quoted by her office as saying.
"We will also have to further cement cooperation with neighboring countries, such as China, Japan and Russia," she added.
11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 4, 2021
Wishful thinking? As former CSA General Sullivan used to say "hope is not a course of action."
However, this attitude indicates a lack of understanding of the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime.
The biggest source of friction in the ROK/US alliance is not the SMA negotiation stalemate or OPCON transition or THAAD or relations with China. It is the pacific wide difference in strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime. Unless the ROK and US can come to sufficient common agreement about the strategic assumptions upon which to base policy and strategy the alliance is going to struggle.
12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Hyo-Seong, Park Hyeun-Ju, and Shim Kyu-Seok
I do not think these lawmakers are going to convince any US officials about the new anti-leaflet law. They are miscalculating.
Excerpts:
“PPP Rep. Chung cast the trip's objective as "restoring a traditional Korea-U.S. relationship" by shoring up ties that he claimed were pulled apart by the Moon Jae-in administration.
For DP lawmakers, another main goal for the trip is to explain to the Biden administration its recent passage of a highly controversial bill banning the sending of propaganda leaflets to North Korea.”
13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo· January 4, 2021
A roll-up of recommendations from a number of Korea hands.
14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda
The Korea Times · January 4, 2021
I am sorry but north Korea is not going to be high on the Biden administration agenda as much as many of us would like it to be (unless Kim really acts out and does something drastic). COVID and the US economy (treated as one issue) have to be the top priority. Then China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea will compete for attention along with many other issues from climate change to trade agreements.
The key for the Biden administration is to have a strong Korea team that can manage the Korea issues.
15. 'What to Do About North Korea'
The Korea Times · by Chang Se-moon · January 3, 2021
A fascinating Oped that criticizes the Moon administration uses an interesting Nokia analogy. Mr. Chang brings to together some very interesting points of view, information, and analogy.
16. Voters lean toward opposition
The Korea Times· by Yi Whan-woo · January 3, 2021
Will this impact the 2022 Presidential election?
17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year
The Korea Times · by Kang Kyung-wha · January 3, 2021
I am not surprised the Foreign Minister did not mention the UN Command and the contribution it made to defending freedom in South Korea.
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"Brinksmanship ... the deliberate creation of a recognizable risk, a risk that one does not completely control. It is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation. It means harassing and intimidating an adversary by exposing him to a shared risk, or by deterring him by showing that if he makes a contrary move he may disturb us so that we slip over the rink whether we want to or not, carrying him with us."
- Thinking Strategically, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff
"If your organization is small in numbers, then do what Gideon did: conceal the numbers in the dark but raise a din and clamor that will make the listener believe that your organization numbers many more than it does.... Always remember the first rule of power tactics: Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."
- Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky
"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; actions for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way."
- Marcus Aurelius