News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Opinion | Why North Korea could become one of Biden's biggest challenges
2. North Korean Leader's Sister Retains Power Despite Formal 'Demotion'
3. N.Korea Shows off New Submarine-Launched Missile at Military Parade
4. N. Korea holds military parade, showcases new SLBM
5. Military parade pressures Biden to take North Korea seriously
6. Diplomats of S. Korea, Japan hold video talks amid tensions on wartime sexual slavery ruling
7. S. Korea extends current social distancing level for 2 weeks, eases restrictions on cafes, gyms
8. Shameful political legacy
1. Opinion | Why North Korea could become one of Biden's biggest challenges
The Washington Post · by Victor Cha · January 15, 2021
I am going to beat this horse: deterrence, defense, denuclearization, solving the Korea question (unification), using a superior form of political warfare based on a rock-solid ROK/US alliance and realistic assumptions of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.
I am glad to read Dr. Cha discussing the potential for instability in north Korea.
Again, I offer this from Robert Kaplan who interviewed Robert Collins in 2006 and describes the 7 phases of north Korean collapse.
When North Korea Falls
The furor over Kim Jong Il's missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea's catastrophic collapse. How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China
ROBERT D. KAPLAN
OCTOBER 2006 ISSUE
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/
Here is a link to my 1996 Monograph following the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996
"The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military"
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf
My thoughts on supporting Korean unification and resistance in north Korea are here.
Should the United States Support Korean Unification and If So, How?
International Journal of Korean Studies ·Vol. XVIII, No. 1
http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467285_add_file_7.pdf
Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance
International Journal of Korean Unification Studies
Vol. 24, No. 2, 2015, 127-152
https://www.kinu.or.kr/pyxis-api/1/digital-files/d3f8fb63-4f8c-49c9-a4fa-901d3120bd5a
But yes, it is not just KJU's nuclear weapons. Here are my "Big 5"
1. War - must deter, and if attacked defend, fight, and defeat the nKPA.
2. Regime Collapse - must prepare for the real possibility and understand it could lead to war and both war and regime collapse could result in resistance within the north.
3. Human Rights and Crimes Against Humanity - (gulags, external forced labor, etc) must focus on as it is a threat to the Kim Family Regime and undermines domestic legitimacy - it is a moral imperative and a national security issue. KJU denies human rights to remain in power.
4. Asymmetric threats (provocations, proliferation, nuclear program, missiles, cyber, and SOF) subversion of the ROK, and global illicit activities.
5. Unification - the biggest challenge and the solution.
We should never forget that north Korea is master of denial and deception in all that it does from military operations to strategy to diplomatic negotiations.
There are my five strategic questions about north Korea:
1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?
2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
2. North Korean Leader's Sister Retains Power Despite Formal 'Demotion'
Not mentioned is that she appears to still retain her position in the Organization and Guidance Department which is the most important organization directly supporting Kim Jong-un, the regime, and the party. And of course, trusting her with the propaganda and Agitation Department responsible for glorifying KJU and controlling the regime narrative is also another indicator of her importance and power.
3. N.Korea Shows off New Submarine-Launched Missile at Military Parade
english.chosun.com – 16 January 2021
Never tested, not known to be operational, and does it have a capable submarine (and at least three to make one) to make this availability capability? Right now, I think this is a blackmail diplomacy tool and is more about trying to raise tensions to extract/extort political and economic concessions. It may be a "bargaining chip" at negotiations. They are trying to generate fear of the capability so we will provide concessions to stop its fielding. And the sad irony could be they would give up a "capability" that was nowhere near ready to be fielded and perhaps they never even had any intention of fielding it. They will give up the "new" missile and continue to develop and field the already tested Pukguksong-3.
That said, never say never. Maybe they have developed a more advanced missile that is ready to be tested. We have underestimated the regime and the nKPA before.
4. N. Korea holds military parade, showcases new SLBM
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 15, 2021
Kim Jong-un is rocking that leather coat of fur hat.
5. Military parade pressures Biden to take North Korea seriously
The Korea Times · January 15, 2021
I am pretty confident the Biden administration takes north Korea seriously. That said it does not mean that it will act in the desperate way that KJU desires. Biden's national security team will ensure there is not an overreaction to KJU 's provocation while at the same time demonstrating strategic reassurance and strategic resolve.
6. Diplomats of S. Korea, Japan hold video talks amid tensions on wartime sexual slavery ruling
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 15, 2021
There is no easy answer to this problem except decisive leadership by Moon and Suga (but that will be hard).
7. S. Korea extends current social distancing level for 2 weeks, eases restrictions on cafes, gyms
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 16, 2021
The pendulum is swinging.
8. Shameful political legacy
The Korea Times – by Park Moo-jong - January 14, 2021
A useful survey of the Korean presidents and comparisons to some US presidents.
"Truth does not reside in exact recording of every detail. It never has. Instead, it resides in myth -- generalizing myths that direct attention to what is common amid diversity by neglecting trivial differences of detail."
- Historian William McNeill wrote in a NYT op-ed in 1981
"It's limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower."
- Dominic Tierney
"There's a sociologist who spent a lot of time [in Afghanistan] who asked Americans to define what corruption is. They would say something like, 'when you give your cousin a job.' Then he went to Afghanistan and asked them to define corruption. They said, 'that's when you have a job to give and you don't give it to your cousin.'"
- David Brooks, May 14, 2013 public lecture at CSIS