Journal

President-elect Trump has inherited one of the most complex and devastating conflicts of our time, a war that has scarred Ukraine, challenged NATO, and shaken European security. Now, with his recent victory, Trump stands poised to seize a historic opportunity: to end a brutal conflict, honor America’s longstanding commitments, and demonstrate global leadership on the scale of President Eisenhower and President Reagan.

“Mushroom clouds are rising above the ground; doors in Staraia Toropa are shaking. Part of the military personnel fled during the night, abandoning the vehicles they arrived in. Everything is burning,” an unidentified villager tells Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU. These things happen when munitions are left laying out in the open in a depot and stacked-up on not-so-secret railway platforms. Welcome to war. A drone pack set in motion by Ukrainian special forces claims another arsenal deep in Russian territory.

A recommendation for Ukrainian Psychological Operations against north Korean forces in Ukraine and Russia.

Despite the recent Orwellian attempts to “unperson” him, Robert E. Lee remains an iconic figure in American military history.  He was a great field commander who probably got more out of his outnumbered and ill-supplied tatterdemalion army than any other general of his time could have by sheer professional acumen and force of personality.  However, with him (and every other senior Southern commander) that’s as far as it goes.  He failed utterly in his responsibility to convince his political superiors of their folly in the strategic prosecution of the war.  He also dissipated combat power he could not afford to lose in two futile invasions of the North.  Worst of all, he allowed Jefferson Davis to tie the Army of Northern Virginia to the defense of Richmond and Petersburg like a staked goat for the implacable Grant to ultimately devour.  By June 1864 he could see the writing on the wall.  If he stayed in Grant’s gory embrace the Army of Northern Virginia would perish and with it the Confederacy.  But he could not bring himself to forcefully challenge his civilian leadership who were willfully blind to the facts – or walk away from them.  Instead, he soldiered on as nemesis approached.

In July 2024, three Palestinians and a Turk, all with possible connections to terrorist organizations, were detained by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents while attempting to illegally cross the Southwest border from Mexico into the San Diego area. One of the two Jordanians who attempted to breach the USMC Marine Corps Base at Quantico in May 2024 was confirmed to have crossed the Southwest border illegally before being detained and then released into the United States. Eight Tajiks with ties to the Islamic State-Khorasan Branch (ISIS-K) were found to have crossed illegally into the United States via the Southwest border at various points in 2023 before being released into the United States. These are just a handful of the most recent incidents involving potential international terrorism-affiliated individuals entering the United States via the Southwest border in the past several years, all facilitated by the Mexican cartels that control the flow of human trafficking across the border.

Colombia holds a crucial role in the global drug trade, serving as a major source of cocaine linked to its historical conflicts and ongoing violence. The nation has been marred by some of history's most notorious drug trafficking organizations, including the Medellín and Cali cartels, which have significantly affected Colombia's stability and safety. Additionally, Colombia has been home to several violent revolutionary groups. For decades, organizations like FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – National Liberation Army) engaged in armed conflict, exacerbating the country’s violence.

If online comment sections frequented by America's veterans are any indication, a widening "civil-military divide" - the alleged cultural segregation of America's military/veteran and civilian communities - requires attention from all parties. Simultaneously, fraternal organizations dedicated to serving America's veterans face dwindling membership. Both of these challenges could be mitigated if the fraternal organizations took the radical step of offering limited membership to former frontline civilians.

Urban operations specialist Dr. Russell W. Glenn provides insights into recovery from urban warfare from experience in Ukraine. Here, Dr. Glenn reviews the impact of urban conflict on traffic and parking. These insights draw from the research for Dr. Glenn's new book "Brutal Catalyst: What Ukraine's Cities Tell Us About Recovery From War" (KeyPoint Press, 2024).

In 2020, I had occasion to begin reacquainting myself with one of my childhood heroes: Buffalo Bill Cody. As a youngster, my family took occasional trips to the city in Wyoming that bears his name. We visited the Buffalo Bill Center of the West, and I read the semi-apocryphal biography penned by Cody's sister. Then, in 2021, I watched as American troops concluded their two-decade-long campaign in Afghanistan. Like many members of my generation, the events that precipitated America's foray into that ancient land proved life-changing for me. When the entire enterprise collapsed, I found myself trying to make sense of it and Bill Cody's story has proved insightful.

SWJ−El Centro Associate Daniel Weisz Argomedo Reviews of "Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking for an Age of Crises" by Jonathan S. Blake and Nils Gilman.

In the US Army, a struggle with math is happening, particularly in the Field Artillery. For a combat arm which demands meeting the five requirements for accurate predicted fire (target location and size, firing unit location, weapon and ammunition information, meteorological data, and computational procedures) as essential to putting steel on target, one would think arithmetic near reverential. Calculus and geometry, simply being able to count to ten, and doing math in increments of 10s, 50s, or 100s applies to just about every one of the “five requirements” in some form or fashion. Yet some artillerymen cannot seem to do the simplest math of all – merely counting munitions and systems.

The United States has now approved the provision of air-to-ground AGM-154 precision cluster glide bombs to Ukraine.  This completes the full family of cluster munitions for artillery, HIMARs rockets and aircraft thirty-two months after the Russian invasion of that country.  Cluster munitions incorporate a number of smaller bomblets that scatter upon impact, vastly increasing the destructive power of the weapons.  America has been slow to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, doing so sparingly and haltingly.  It is now time to deliver all of these different types of cluster munitions in large quantities to destroy the Russian Army in Ukraine.  In artillery terms, it is time to FIRE FOR EFFECT and provide the quantities of ammunition Ukraine needs to win the war

As early as 2008, Army Colonel and West Point history professor Gian Gentile led a chorus of voices that characterized counterinsurgency operations as a dangerous distraction from what might be characterized as “real soldiering”: combined arms maneuver, force-on-force combat, and engagements against what are popularly referred to as “near-peer threats.” By 2015, most of the American defense establishment was onboard! Counterinsurgency was over! Land wars in developing countries were passé! China was a rising power, and America would pivot its attention to the Pacific to contain it! Russia was resurgent, threatening the interests of America and American allies the world over! It was time to reconfigure the service branches to deter or defeat these strategic competitors!

This article by SWJ−El Centro Intern Zachary Horsington reviews the concept of twin insurgency and its constituent components of criminal insurgency and plutocratic insurgency in order to illuminate case studies of oil theft in Nigeria and Brazil.

The civil war in Sudan has produced mass displacement, famine, tales of systematic rape and ethnic killing.  The numbers suggest the scale of suffering: 10 million displaced, 25.6 million facing acute hunger, and casualty counts exceeding 20,000 killed and 33,000 injured. The civil war represents more than a domestic tragedy.  It has become a battleground for global and regional powers, each advancing their own agendas at the expense of the Sudanese people.  Central to the conflict is a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which stems from the former Islamist regime of Omar al-Bashir, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the modern successor of militias responsible for atrocities in Darfur (currently engaging in fighting the Houthis in Yemen).

On behalf of General Charlie Flynn, Commander of United States Army Pacific, I want to provide you with a digital copy of the United States Army Pacific Theater Army strategy that was approved for public release this week.

Review of the De Gruyter Handbook of Drone Warfare by Future Security Initiative Research Fellow Dr. Robert J. Bunker.

A few weeks ago, I published my initial thoughts on the (surprising) Ukrainian offensive towards the Russian city of Kursk.  To summarize, I viewed it as a positive development that added a new dimension – Ukrainians holding territory that was clearly Russian before Putin’s Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine – to what had become an increasingly static war.  It’s been a month.  Let’s look at where everyone is.

The U.S. stands at a pivotal moment in its global security strategy. As the world grapples with war in Ukraine and Chinese aggression in the South-China Sea, the need to bolster the defense capabilities of key allies has never been more pressing. Traditional methods of military aid and direct government spending are insufficient to meet the challenges posed by rising powers like China and Russia. A simple yet transformative policy change could unlock significant private investment in overseas defense manufacturing and strengthen the defense industrial base of U.S. allies in critical regions such as Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific. By expanding the mandate of the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to include defense-related projects, the U.S. can incentivize private capital to flow into areas crucial for global security.

The United States Army Pacific, and its higher headquarters the United States Indo-Pacific Command, exist to make sure that the United States is never caught flat-footed again.  I was in Oahu a few weeks ago (tough duty) as part of a team from the United States Army War College, where I teach senior officers military strategy, planning, and operations; my students at USARPAC were mostly more junior, captains and majors and senior non-commissioned officers who worked at Fort Shafter and across the Indo-Pacific.

This essay by two SWJ−El Centro scholars looks at the complexities of US-Mexico relations and the need for cooperation based upon mutual respect to address transnational organized crime.

This article provides perspective on Turkish organized crime and its links throughout Europe and Latin America.

This commentary summarizes the author’s presentation to the United States Department of Defense (DoD) Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) Speaker Series at the Pentagon, Washington, DC on 22 August 2024.The author is Executive Director of the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE)

This essay by Colombian scholar provides insight into the bilateral US-Colombia policy challenges as transnational gangs and criminal armed groups threaten Colombian and regional security

In recent weeks the Ukrainians have sustained a division (-) sized offensive deep into Russian territory southeast of Kursk traveling over the same ground that saw some of the largest tank battles in WW2.  This offensive surprised the Russians and they have not been very effective in countering it.  It is the most significant development in the Ukraine war in over a year.  Below are some of my initial thoughts on this. 

This article provides an overview of research on the Tri-border area (TBA) between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay conducted by the authors as part of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) at George Mason University project ‘Hubs of Illicit Trade.’

This essay by SWJ−El Centro Fellow Mahmut Cengiz provides perspective on the intersection of Salifi-Jihadist groups and terrorism in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks. This essay examines the fundamental factors behind the frequent association of Islam with terrorism and offers recommendations for addressing this issue.

Let us discuss war as it is, not as we would like it to be. Regulating war is pointless, and our time and energy would be better spent fighting war quickly, decisively, and with single-minded ruthlessness rather than fretting over ethics. Acting as if law applies to war is a foolish hinderance on its conduct. War drives toward extremes. War should go to these extremes as quickly as possible where it is fought in such a vicious manner that it persuades enemies and neutrals alike that war with us is not worth waging.

To debate the past and the future of the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific, Ambassador Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine have agreed to discuss their new book, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, for this Strategy Debrief.

This essay by SWJ-El Centro Fellow Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera provides perspective on the recent arrests of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López

Este ensayo de la Dra. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, compañera de SWJ-El Centro, ofrece una perspectiva sobre las recientes detenciones de Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada y Joaquín Guzmán López.

Despite the abrupt departure of President Joe Biden from the 2024 election campaign, and the equally abrupt substitution of Vice President Kamala Harris as his effective proxy, many commentators continue to believe that the November contest remains former President Donald Trump's to lose. Should Trump prevail in November, he will inherit the management of American support for two longtime allies, both of them - Israel and Ukraine - currently engaged in costly, prolonged conflicts. A single major policy change from that of the sitting administration could generate the leverage that Trump requires to end both conflicts in manners favorable to America and the respective international partners, while satisfying, at least in part, the isolationist wing of the Republican party.

On Sunday, 21 July 2024, Milton Morales Figueroa, general coordinator for the tactical strategy and special operations unit of the Secretaría de Seguridad Ciudadana la Ciudad de México (Secretary of Citizen Security of Mexico City) (SSC-CDMX), was assassinated in the municipality of Coacalco, Estado de México (Edomex). Morales Figueroa was a key intelligence official in the fight against organized crime.

On Thursday, 25 July 2024, American law enforcement officials arrested Ismael, ‘El Mayo,’ Zambada García and Joaquín Guzmán López in El Paso, Texas. The two men are prominent leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel and were detained in a private airfield. Both suspects, and their criminal cartel are allegedly linked to drug trafficking—especially trade in fentanyl and methamphetamine.

This short essay provides a projection of the future operational environment (2035-2050)—through the fictional Project WICKED—and its impact on US Army warfighting through the lens of Fourth Epoch War theory. This OSINT fusion-based theory has been utilized since the early 1990s to support US LE, MIL, and GOV activities including Minerva (DoD), Futures Working Group (FBI/PFI), and Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (LA Sheriff’s) programs.

SWJ–El Centro Fellow Howard Campbell, an anthropologist, interviews journalist Kurt Hollander on his new book and photography project Cali Caliente that documents the history and culture of violence in that city.

For 2.5 years the Russians have used strategic assets of Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, along with Black Sea Fleet ships to fire cruise missiles into Ukraine at civilian targets such as power plants, shopping malls, hydro-electric dams, children’s hospitals and many civilian targets.   This sustained bombing campaign represents institutionalized war crimes from a state sponsor of terror and must be stopped.   Instead of providing weapons that might be able to shoot down the inbound missiles, we must provide weapons to deter the Russian bombers and fleet by going directly at them with weapons that can reach them.

The June 2024 arrest of eight Tajiks inside the United States who are believed to have ties to ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) highlights both the vulnerability of the current open borders of the United States and the persistence of the threat by several international Salafist terror organizations capable of attacking the U.S. homeland.

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

On Easter Sunday, 21 April 2019, the Islamic State (IS) ravaged Sri Lanka with multiple, coordinated attacks targeting churches and three international hotels killing at least 290 people and injuring hundreds. The death toll included at least 45 foreign nationals, three police officers, and eight suicide bombers. The anatomy of this deadly sequence is the focus of Professor Rohan Gunaratna’s text "Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre."

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has witnessed a significant shift in Russian tactics, with fighter-bombers now deploying over 100 large "glide bombs" daily against both military and civilian targets. These precision-guided munitions, some weighing up to 3,000 pounds, are causing devastating damage and need to be countered effectively. The immediate provision of MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Ukraine could be a strategic response to this evolving threat.

Who are the ever-elusive U.S. Army Space Cadre? In this article, the Space Cadre force structure is broken down across its categories – FA40As [Space Operations Officers], FA40Cs [U.S. Army Astronauts], and 3Ys [Space Enabler ASI] – and the components of the U.S. Army. Additionally, this article underpins the space capabilities that Space Cadre can provide to the warfighter, as well as contextualizes their formation and utilization in U.S. warfighting operations such as the Gulf War (1990 - 1991) – dubbed as the “First Space War.” Lastly, this article very briefly highlights the future implications of U.S. Army Space Operations. The purpose of this article is to not only inform U.S. Army Commanders of the space professionals in their ranks but to also encourage the growth and maintenance of the U.S. Army Space Cadre as a small, modular force structure capable of bridging institutional gaps relating to space across the Joint Force.

Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is now in its third year. Ukraine successfully repelled most of Russia’s initial strikes in 2022, and the West rallied to provide enormous support for the battle-hardened Ukrainian people. Yet Ukraine now faces serious challenges on and off the battlefield. Russia is advancing at the same time as international support for Ukraine has been thrown into doubt. The implications stretch far beyond Central and Eastern Europe in what some observers are now calling the opening phases of a renewed Cold War and even a possible World War III.

The ”superpower” of the Army War College, as in most professional military education institutions in the United States, is the presence of international officers from allied and partner nations around the globe.   Each year, some 75 countries send their most talented senior officers to spend a year in Carlisle with their families studying, learning, and living among their American peers. This immersion often leads to forming lifelong personal, as well as professional, bonds that reap rewards for the entire international system for years to come

Irregular Warfare (IW) Campaigning is the art of using available resources by the Department of Defense and other Agencies in a series of linked actions, over an extended period, to eventually gain a marked advantage over your adversary, who will also be referred to as peer competitors. This long-term strategy requires continuity of desired end states through both political administrations and military command rotations. This was done by and large during the Cold War, albeit with course adjustments; the key was that the majority of America never questioned that the Soviet Union was our number one enemy. This basic common focus during the Cold War helped facilitate a unity of purpose and effort from different organizations, if not a unity of command and priority of tasks. So, the question is what agency or headquarters should take the lead in IW campaigning in the present multi-polar complex world?

  The ancient struggle between insurgents and counterinsurgents has grown in significance and frequency since the end of the Second World War, leading to increased attention and study of the subject. Guerrilla warfare has become the most prevalent form of warfare in the world. Insurgents have fought to remove imperialist powers to gain independence, while revolutionaries sought to implement Marxist societal change and the redistribution of resources in alignment with their ideological preferences. The United States has fought protracted insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan to support fledging governments, typically prevailing on the battlefield but frustrated by the political challenges. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of historical examples to evaluate when attempting to understand and appraise this type of warfare.

This narrative explores how a chance meeting in a Miami restaurant shaped Rice's involvement in securing vital military support for the Ukrainian Army, while also acknowledging the broader context of the conflict and the collective efforts of various stakeholders in the largest war in Europe in 80 years, and the 3rd largest war in Europe in 150 years, behind World War II and World War I. 

The central focus of this article revolves around conducting a comprehensive analysis of the role played by defense diplomacy in the intricate context of the Ukraine war. By doing so, it seeks to specifically focus on cooperative endeavors between Western nations and the Ukrainian government. Furthermore, the article strives to highlight the challenges faced in the process. By examining these aspects, we aim to address a pivotal question: What were the profound and consequential domains of cooperation in defense diplomacy between Western states and Ukraine that significantly shaped the trajectory of the war's development? The findings show that the crucial areas of this cooperation encompassed military support, military education, intelligence sharing, as well as legal and legislative collaboration.

A "quasi-outside observer" with tremendous insights into military issues, offers a critique that focuses on US military recruiting but actually does a deeper dive into a variety of service leadership issues with some proposed solutions.

SWJ−El Centro Fellow Mahmut Cengiz provides insight on the rise of Türkiye as a key hub in the global cocaine trade in this assessment of emerging illicit flows.