News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration
2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China
3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors
4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?
5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia
6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?
7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities
8. American Universities Declare War on Military History
9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar
10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game
11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser
12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'
13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition
14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites
15. Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones
16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street
17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault
18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong
19. The Role of retired Senior Officers
20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny
1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration
The National Interest · by Muqtedar Khan · January 31, 2021
Four continents/regions and China. China gets its own separate billing. Everything else is lumped into regions.
But as the author notes, domestic crises will keep the administration focused on the homeland first.
2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China
The New York Times · by Nicholas Kristof · January 30, 2021
Excerpts:
"We learned with the Soviet Union how to keep the Cold War cold," noted David Shambaugh, a George Washington University scholar and author of several excellent books on U.S.-China relations. He suggests dusting off the Cold War toolbox to see whether arms control agreements, hotlines and military-to-military consultations can lower temperatures.
"We're in really dangerous waters now," Shambaugh noted.
3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors
WSJ · by Heather Somerville
You have to appreciate the analogies we employ to describe our actions. Now we have "SWAT teams" looking at business deals.
4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?
The Atlantic · by Jeffrey Wasserstrom · January 30, 2021
Very interesting question. Publishing Houses should take this as a proposal and contract with Professor Wasserstrom to write Xi's biography. Of course, it will be hard for him to obtain the necessary access.
Excerpts:
In a well-stocked bookstore, you can find multiple biographies of Putin, one of Kim that came out in 2019 and another published in 2020, plus ones of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. If your goal was to buy a comparable volume about the life of the most powerful leader China has had in decades-a person, moreover, who is by some measures the most powerful individual in the world-you would come up empty.
There are, of course, books about Xi. They are just not substantive and careful biographies, falling instead into one of three other categories: Chinese-language hagiographies published for domestic consumption; gossipy and lightly sourced volumes, again in Chinese, in a secret-lives-of-emperors vein, which cannot be sold on the mainland; and works in various languages that have Xi's name on their covers but are not devoted to describing and assessing his life. There have been only a few notable deep-dive article-length profiles and podcast episodes on the Chinese leader. Even though they shed light on important parts of Xi's life and personality, it is striking that there are just a handful of works worth mentioning, given how much power he has wielded for close to a decade.
Conclusion: But for a country that is in some ways, as Yan put it, reminiscent of both North Korea and the United States, and seems to be simultaneously sliding backward and surging forward, it will not work to think of Xi as either a completely novel figure or a straightforward throwback. It is high time to have a better sense than we do-even if it is no easy matter to figure out how to do it-of what makes the autocratic, muscular nationalist, order-obsessed strongman in charge of China tick.
5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia
jamestown.org · by Thomas Kent · January 25, 2021
Certainly an indicator of the effectiveness of VOA and RFE/RL.
Important excerpts:
However, retaliation against RT and Sputnik in the United States would bring claims of censorship, not only from the right- and left-wing US audiences the two outlets have cultivated but from advocates of free media. Russian nationals working at the networks could be expelled, but many of the outlets' staff are US citizens. Cable companies might also resist government attempts to control their offerings.
Shutting down RT and Sputnik might not even hurt Russia much. After years of perfecting other overt and covert ways to manipulate segments of US audiences (see Hot Issues, August 13, 2014), Russia may be willing to sacrifice its marquee outlets as the price for shutting down RFE/RL at home.
If RFE/RL's bureau should ultimately be forced to close, Congress would still have an option: sharply bolstering the media company to retain its Russian audience. RFE/RL is skilled at gathering and verifying news at a distance; it is a trusted source of local news in Iran, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and other countries where its bureaus are barred. Increased Congressional funding could support additional staff as well as the opening of new RFE/RL offices on Russia's periphery. Help may also be needed from technology firms and other US agencies if Russia tries to block it on the internet. (RFE/RL stopped shortwave broadcasts to Russia in 2016, since few Russians still have shortwave radios.)
I would never shut down RT or Sputnik. I would hope US media would take advantage of the opportunity to expose Russian information and propaganda strategies and compare the differences between Russian propaganda and the real news operations of USAGM's VOA/RFE/RL/RFA. RT and Sputnik provide us insights into the Russian's propaganda messaging and they should not be able to influence critical thinking Americans who have access to free and open information.
6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?
jamestown.org · by Roger McDermott · January 27, 2021
Very interesting development. Since he is not giving up his current position and this is in addition to it, is this an indication as to how important professional military education and doctrine development is to the Russian military? Could we imagine General Milley becoming the president of NDU while simultaneously being the CJCS?
But it is interesting that he had to "campaign" for the position:
Excerpt: In campaigning for the presidency of the AVN, Gerasimov argued that the institution should become "a large all-Russian military scientific center, contributing to the solution of priority geopolitical, military-strategic, military-economic and innovation-technological problems in the interests of defense of the country." Nonetheless, according to Oleg Falichev, writing in Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, under Gerasimov's presidency the AVN will probably continue to focus on conducting "fundamental, exploratory and applied scientific research on topical problems of military art, military organizational development and organizational development of the Armed Forces, military command and control, the development of weapons and military equipment, and military history" (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, January 19, 2021).
7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities
https://fortune.com/2021/01/31/who-is-in-biden-cabinet-antony-blinken-janet-yellen-merrick-garland-gina-raimondo-xavier-becerra-pete-buttigieg-marcia-fudge/ - by Nicole Goodkind
Yes, the first rule of management is delegation and personnel is policy. A useful overview of the cabinet.
8. American Universities Declare War on Military History
Bloomberg · by Max Hastings · January 31, 2021
Those who fail to learn from history... no need to finishes Santayna's famous quote.
Any national security practitioner must know and understand military history.
As I have written the core for all professional military education should be the following curriculum topics. I think this has application for national security practitioners more broadly.
1. Military History
2. Military Theory
3. Military Geography
4. Operational Art
5. Strategy
9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4116305 - by Kelvin Chen – 31 January 2021
I think this is pretty clear. And I think the Taiwanese see this more than most of our friends, partners, and allies.
10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game
https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3119753/how-china-beating-us-geopolitical-board-game
Weiqi (or Go or in Korean, Paduk) is a most difficult game. I play it often on my computer and phone and I have never beat the computer (despite with handicaps!).
But we might learn a lot by visualizing One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as if on a Go board.
11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser
straitstimes.com · by Charissa Yong · January 31, 2021
Excerpts:
"Step one... is to refurbish the fundamental foundations of our democracy. That goes for everything from our democratic system itself to issues of racial inequity, economic inequality - all of the things that have contributed to the shine coming off the American model over the course of time," he said.
Second, America has to move in lockstep with democratic allies and partners, he added.
Mr Sullivan said the Biden administration will build on the Quad - the informal grouping of the US, Australia, India and Japan - and sees it as "foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific region".
Third, America has to make sure it leads the world in key technologies of the future, by working with other countries and making aggressive public investments at home to stay on the cutting edge, he said.
Lastly, the US has to be prepared to impose costs on China for its policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and the "bellicosity of threats it is projecting towards Taiwan", Mr Sullivan added.
12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'
CNN · by Kevin Liptak
We will be watching and listening for insights as to the way ahead:
While his speech is not expected to outline in detail the specifics of a new strategy on China, Iran, North Korea, Russia or other US adversaries, he will seek to frame his foreign policy around shoring up alliances and returning to multilateralism after the Trump administration, which was marked by unilateral actions and disdain for traditional diplomacy.
13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition
Wow. From a Chaplain.
14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites
NPR · by Shannon Bond · January 31, 2021
I have seen a large exodus on the social media pages I observe.
15. Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones
defenseone.com · by Steve Blank, Raj Shah, and Joe Felter
From three brilliant strategic thinkers.
Excerpts:
Once the new members are in place, DoD should ask for big and bold ideas in several key areas, including:
* Technology and innovation: Given finite budgets, how best to evaluate, choose, and scale a plethora of new technologies and new operational concepts?
* Business practices: Examine and explore entirely new ways of building commercial partnerships and influencing the private sector.
* Policy: Ensure we understand our adversaries and how they are fusing together military, economic, and private markets to challenge us.
16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street
Quartz · by Tim Fernholz
Excerpts:
After some brokerages suspended trading in GameStop and other hot stocks, conspiracy theories quickly spread that "suits" intervened to keep small investors from playing the market. Some populist politicians joined the conspiratorial social media pile-on. The more prosaic reality is that online brokers swamped in new business had to raise money to meet capital requirements, imposed by regulators to protect investors of all stripes.
Populism this ain't. Occupy Wall Street did not speak with a single voice, but after the 2008 financial crisis, the "99%" were clearly fed up with speculation. Some of demands that emerged from that movement included universal basic income, debt relief-and a financial transactions tax to curb short-term investing. A decade later, is the dream really unfettered access to leveraged options trades?
Make no mistake: The "suits" would love to see that pivot-some call it neoliberalism.
17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault
The Washington Post – by Delvin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, and Aaron C. Davis - January 30, 2021
The more video that I see the more I see elements of planning and command and control despite the obvious chaos and appearance of a "leaderless" insurrection.
18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong
taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · January 30, 2021
Jeff Schogol offers a blunt critique.
Conclusion:
The hard truth is this: The United States has made clear it will eventually leave Afghanistan. Even if the U.S. military keeps a counter-terrorism force in the country beyond May, there is no way to separate fighting Al Qaeda from fighting the Taliban because they remain brothers in arms.
In other words, the U.S. military is trapped in Afghanistan and the Taliban know they just need to wait us out. To cite an overused cliché: We've got the watches; they've got the time.
That's why the Taliban have won.
19. The Role of retired Senior Officers
warroom.armywarcollege.edu · by Jeffrey E. Baker · January 29, 2021
Important food for thought.
20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny
The New York Times · by Luke Broadwater and Matthew Rosenberg · January 29, 2021
This is going to get really ugly for our politics. I can think of all kinds of scenarios emanating from this. None of them are good.
"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."
- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays
"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."
- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem
"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."
- Alex Stein