News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused
2. Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks
3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine
4. How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget
5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us
6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence
7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain
8. Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement
9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?
10. 'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape
11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?
12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny
13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub
14. Global democracy has a very bad year
15. General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War
16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks
17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps
18. Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
19. Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China
20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together
21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story
22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists
1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused
breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary
This is quite the praise for Dr. Hicks: "Gates introduced Hicks to the committee and praised her “deep knowledge” of the Pentagon’s “bureaucratic black arts.”
I wonder if there is a PhD program in the "bureaucratic black arts." Or do you have to go to the ninja dojo to gain those skills along with knife fighting.
2. Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks
WSJ · by Nancy A. Youssef
Probably not unexpected. But here is the memo the SECDEF signed. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/DoDAdvisoryCommittees-Zero-Based-Review.pdf. It is useful in that it provides a comprehensive list of all the advisory boards.
3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · February 2, 2021
Again, if the active duty military does not want the vaccine there are plenty of military retirees who would gladly take it.
4. How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget
Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · February 2, 2021
Dr. Hicks will have a very complex and challenging portfolio.
5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us
realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman
From my FDD colleague, Brad Bowman. I think he makes arguments that should resonate with Americans outside the beltway bubble and are hopefully discussed at coffee shops and other gathering places (after COVID is dealt with). This is an example of an OpEd I would like to see in local papers throughout the US. Deterrence is one of the hardest concepts to argue for and prove. And as a wise Command Sergeant Major often told me, the house that is not burning does not make the news. Deterrence is the house that is not burning.
Excerpts:
The Guard's role last month in D.C. vividly demonstrates the potentially decisive deterrent value of American ground forces when properly equipped, trained, and positioned.
While there is certainly a difference between armed domestic violent extremists and nation-state adversaries abroad, Americans have seen the same deterrent benefits of forward-positioned forces abroad. In 1997, a high-ranking North Korean defector stated that U.S. military forces in South Korea were the only thing deterring North Korean aggression.
In Europe, Moscow has invaded non-NATO countries such as Ukraine and Georgia in recent years. But after more than seven decades, the Kremlin has never invaded a NATO member country. The presence of joint U.S. combat forces, including ground forces, in Europe, makes clear to Moscow that America and its NATO allies have the military capability to defend against an attack.
The events last month in D.C. demonstrate the National Guard's value and suggest decision makers should think twice before withdrawing U.S. ground forces abroad from key locations at the frontiers of freedom.
What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us
realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman
6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence
usni.org - Admiral Charles A. Richard - February 1, 2021
Speaking of deterrence.
Excerpts:
While DoD’s focus has been on counterterrorism, Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have begun to aggressively challenge international norms and global peace using instruments of power and threats of force in ways not seen since the height of the Cold War—and in some cases, in ways not seen during the Cold War, such as cyberattacks and threats in space. Not surprisingly, they are even taking advantage of the global pandemic to advance their national agendas. These behaviors are destabilizing, and if left unchecked, increase the risk of great power crisis or conflict. We must actively compete to hold their aggression in check; ceding to their initiatives risks reinforcing their perceptions that the United States is unwilling or unable to respond, which could further embolden them. Additionally, our allies may interpret inaction as an unwillingness or inability to lead. Remaining passive may deny us opportunities to position in ways that underpin one of our greatest strengths: strategic power projection. The moment an adversary’s initiative becomes a fait accompli, the United States would be forced to decide whether to accept their “new normal,” employ military force to reestablish the status quo, or set our own “new normal.”
...
While this is a sobering picture, it is not intended to discourage; rather, it is meant to highlight reality and reinvigorate a conversation across the enterprise. Our challenges are not insurmountable. Time and again, DoD has demonstrated its willingness and ability to address changing environments. We must adapt to today’s strategic environment by understanding our opponents’ threats and their decision calculus. We must also accept the gauntlet of great power competition with our nuclear-capable peers. It is through a holistic risk assessment process that we can better align national resources and military readiness to ensure strategic security. In the end, it comes back to the threat. Until we come to a broad understanding of what the threat is and what to do about it, we risk suffering embarrassment—or perhaps worse—at the hands of our adversaries.
7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain
The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · February 3, 2021
Truth is stranger than fiction. There is a movie in this. I am reminded of the late great Bull Simons getting Ross Perot's EDDS employees out of Iran during the embassy hostage crisis in 1979-1980. And this academic sounds like the OSS adage, A PhD who can handle himself in a bar fight.
Excerpts:
He escaped carrying only his laptop and copies of the books and articles he had published, crossing the border through snow 1.5 metres deep and fog, evading Iranian border patrols. Border security has been heightened ever since the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran last year.
“I am Kurdish by ethnicity and I know some of the routes, but it was very dangerous. I had to try several times,” he said.
Ahmady followed the paths used by mountain porters evading US-imposed sanctions to carry alcohol, car parts, medicine, cigarettes and contraband from Iraq and Turkey. But the routes are hazardous: one smuggler carrying four tyres on his back was recently shot by border guards, while several others have frozen to death.
He said he feared if he had been caught he would have faced more years in jail, but he had to take the risk. “I smuggled myself out of Iran out of despair,” he said. “I felt I had no other choice or option to leave. I was banned from travelling. I had this bounty and this sentence.”
8. Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement
military.com · by Matthew Cox · February 2, 2021
The old SAFAD - small arms for air defense - modernized.
9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?
warontherocks.com · by Andrew Scobell · February 3, 2021
From one of our China experts. I have often counted on Andrew's work on China and its relations with north Korea.
This excerpt reminds me of the question Dr. Jung Pak always asks about the Kim family regime: who does it fer most? The answer for the regime and the CCP is the same.
Excerpts:
The greatest irony of the People’s Republic — as I have written elsewhere — is that what the ruling CCP fears most are the people of China. The CCP is fearful that the people power opposition movements which shook countries and toppled regimes around the world will inspire Chinese crowds to take to the streets. The CCP is preoccupied with a plethora of different groups — disgruntled workers, irate farmers, unhappy veterans, disaffected religious groups, and restive ethnic minorities — each of which has registered dissatisfaction through physical demonstrations and online activism in recent years.
...
The prospect of a wobbly China and disjointed military is not a recipe for reassurance in the United States. A weaker or more insecure Beijing will present different challenges to that of a stronger and overconfident Beijing. But these will not be any easier and they are likely to be far more complicated. A less potent China may be disposed to act more erratically, possess heightened sensitivity to perceived threats, and be more prone to overreact. While China may not turn out to be the unstoppable juggernaut it is often made out to be, a wobbly Beijing will present a different set of challenges.
The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration should look past China’s stable present and heighten vigilance to detect harbingers of future upheaval. Priorities ought to include continuous efforts to engage with a wide array of elites. This increases the chances that Washington is attuned to emerging trends, alert to future shocks, and acquainted with China’s post-COVID-19 leadership. Another priority should be crafting a purposeful military-to-military relationship to enhance U.S. ability to monitor the progress of China’s defense transformation and engage with rising PLA leaders. The likely persistence of bumpy bilateral ties underscores the importance of maintaining open channels of communication between the two defense establishments.
10. 'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape
BBC · by Matthew Hill, David Campanale, and Joel Gunter
A very graphic article that is not meant for all audiences. I just cannot find any more words to describe the truly evil nature of the perpetrators and the Chinese Communist Party in this article.
There are images at the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071
11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?
lawfareblog.com – by John Foote - February 2, 2021
Recommendations for revision to US law.
Conclusion:
Finally, and maybe most importantly, the statute should include a built-in incentive to keep legitimate trade flowing. Companies prepared to work with their supply chains on the leading edge of corporate social responsibility and sustainable sourcing should be able to preserve the ability to trade in responsibly sourced goods. Enshrining the ability to prove that a given channel of supply is free of forced labor—including with the use of technologically sophisticated tracing technologies, to achieve “green lane” access to uninterrupted importation—is a powerful incentive, not available under current law, that should be created.
In truth, a revised statute that accomplished even some of these goals would be a marked improvement on the status quo. Here’s hoping the 117th Congress and stakeholders across all constituencies are up for the challenge.
12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny
fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig and Andrea Stricker · February 2, 2021
From my FDD colleagues.
Excerpts:
Already in 2018, Biden was suggesting that the United States target Russian money laundering and involvement in U.S. financial and real estate markets. The U.S. should freeze the foreign-held assets of Putin, other Kremlin officials, and rich oligarchs close to Putin, which would indicate to the Russian leader that America will shake the foundation of his rule by targeting his pocketbook and that of his wealthy supporters.
Navalny is in a precarious situation. By acting resolutely, Biden may shield him from additional harm.
Mere rhetoric on the part of the Biden administration will only delay a reckoning with Russia. On the other hand, targeting Putin where it hurts would send a strong signal to the Russian people—currently protesting en masse for change—that America is behind them.
13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub
fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir · February 2, 2021
And from another of my FDD colleagues.
Conclusion: The Biden administration should urge Ankara to adopt a zero-tolerance policy toward terror finance and to end its permissive policies and lenient treatment of jihadist networks within Turkey. Treasury, meanwhile, should continue to issue sanctions against Turkey-based terror financiers.
14. Global democracy has a very bad year
The Economist – 2 Feb 2021
We should be troubled by this report.
15. General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War
thecipherbrief.com – Walter Pincus
Excerpt:
The entire 45-minute discussion is worth hearing as Mattis, encouraged by Vickers, provided a stimulating, tour d’horizon of national security issues facing us all, including both foreign and domestic terrorism.
The video can be viewed here :https://vimeo.com/507184513. It is actually 90 minutes with the traditional cocktail mixing and history and films about the Marines in the OSS and the National Museum of Intelligence and Special Operations.
As noted he covers a lot of ground to include discussions of SOF and the intelligence community. It is definitely worth watching.
16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks
koreaherald.com · February 3, 2021
Excellent. This is an argument we have to make to the American people who have only heard about the costs and the transactional basis of our alliances. We have to be able to describe the strategic value in meaningful terms to the American people.
We try to make the argument of their importance here but we have to get this message and others like to the American people: Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/
17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps
The National Interest · by William S. Smith · February 2, 2021
For discussion among PME classes and through the military, active and retired.
Excerpts:
There is something troubling about the current culture of America’s elite officer corps, not simply in their politicization but also in their now routine acceptance of a revolving door onto the boards of defense contractors, security companies, and others vying for government contracts. The healthy tradition of a separate and professional officer corps who would give their unvarnished and unbiased opinions to America’s civilian leaders is breaking down; many retired military leaders are now both partisan and display huge financial conflicts of interest.
No one wants to place a hard ban preventing retired military officers from becoming involved in politics; retired military officers do have First Amendment rights. However, the nation is clearly poorer without senior military officers of the caliber of George Marshall, who probably had strong political views but, for the sake of the country, he approached his First Amendment rights with restraint, discretion, and professionalism.
18. Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
The New York Times · by David Leonhardt · February 2, 2021
Some fascinating data. Charts are at the link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/sunday/democrats-economy.html?
19. Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China
Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · February 2, 2021
20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together
taskandpurpose.com · by Nate Anderson and Joe Chenelly · February 2, 2021
Can we?
21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story
icsve.org · by Anne Speckhard · February 2, 2021
22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists
defenseone.com · by Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby – 2 February 2021
I think this is some very important analysis that needs further exploration.
Conclusion: What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority. Preventing further violence from this movement will require a deeper understanding of its activities and participants, and the two of us do not claim to know which political tactics might ultimately prove helpful. But Americans who believe in democratic norms should be wary of pat solutions. Some of the standard methods of countering violent extremism—such as promoting employment or waiting patiently for participants to mellow with age—probably won’t mollify middle-aged, middle-class insurrectionists. And simply targeting better-established far-right organizations will not prevent people like the Capitol rioters from trying to exercise power by force.
"When people reflect on what it takes to be mentally fit, the first idea that comes to mind is usually intelligence. The smarter you are, the more complex the problems you can solve - and the faster you can solve them. Intelligence is traditionally viewed as the ability to think and learn. Yet in a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.
Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for stereotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.
The curse of knowledge is that it closes your mind to what you don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill - and the wil - to open your mind. A hallmark of wisdom is knowing when it’s time to abandon some of the most cherished parts of your identity."
- Adam Grant in Think Again