News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. ‘All means short of war’: How China will ‘break’ Taiwan
2. Chinese flocked to audio app Clubhouse for a taste of the open Internet. It didn’t last.
3. A la recherche du Shultz perdu (tributes on the passing of George Shultz)\
4. Remembering George Shultz… “You’ve got your whole life ahead of you” | Spirit of America
5. WSJ News Exclusive | Capitol Riot Warnings Weren’t Acted On as System Failed
6. Hacker tries to poison water supply of Florida city
7. IntelBrief: The State of Global Terrorism and Counterterrorism - The Soufan Center
8. Why U.S. Troops Should Remain in Afghanistan
9. Thoughts on the Unfolding U.S.-Chinese Competition: Washington’s Policy Towards Beijing Enters Its Next Phase
10. How the United States Lost to Hackers
11. The Strategic Offensive Against the CCP
12. How to deprogram America's extremists
13. Hicks Takes Reins as Deputy Secretary of Defense
14. Aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt train together in South China Sea
15. Biden quietly nixes Trump-era rule combating Chinese Communist-funded 'propaganda' centers
16. Tough to defend against ‘flying IEDs’: US general
17. Xinhua Commentary: "America is back," or simply swinging backward?
18. National Security Memorandum 2—What’s new in Biden’s NSC Structure?
19. Excerpt from ‘The Princess Spy’
1. ‘All means short of war’: How China will ‘break’ Taiwan
news.com.au · February 8, 2021
Fascinating. This reads like how a combination of Kennan acolytes, Boydian disciples, and special operations personnel would devise a strategy for the PRC to take Taiwan. The "all means sort of war scenario" is summarized on page four of this report that is referenced in the article here.
2. Chinese flocked to audio app Clubhouse for a taste of the open Internet. It didn’t last.
The Washington Post · February 8, 2021
I was not familiar with Clubhouse. A colleague informed me that Clubhouse uses Agora, a Chinese app, to power it.
3. A la recherche du Shultz perdu (tributes on the passing of George Shultz)
Two tributes that we should ponder about a great American.
4. Remembering George Shultz… “You’ve got your whole life ahead of you” | Spirit of America
spiritofamerica.org · February 8, 2021
5. WSJ News Exclusive | Capitol Riot Warnings Weren’t Acted On as System Failed
WSJ · by Rachael Levy, Dan Frosch and Sadie Gurman
Excerpts:
“The Office of Intelligence and Analysis, or I&A, DHS’s nerve center for monitoring online threats, battled politics and shifting demands in the months leading up to Jan. 6, officials said.
...
An I&A spokeswoman said the changes were made “to correct for the inappropriate intelligence activities” last year. She said the branch strengthened its intelligence collection process and didn’t reduce attention on domestic extremism post-Portland. She said that the agency issued a Dec. 30 report about the heightened threat environment related to the election, though it didn’t mention Jan. 6.
Stephanie Dobitsch, an experienced international terrorism official with I&A, shared an assessment similar to the Dec. 30 report at a meeting with senior DHS officials, including from the Secret Service, around that time.
I&A didn’t warn about Jan. 6. because previous election certifications by Congress hadn’t seen trouble, senior I&A officials lacked specific, credible intelligence and DHS hadn’t designated the event a “national special security event,” I&A officials said after Jan. 6.
As the mob attacked the Capitol, DHS officials emailed one another to stay abreast of events. Ms. Dobitsch asked for information on the rioters. She sent the email at 2:26 p.m., as rioters breached the inside of the Capitol.
Three weeks after the riot, on Jan. 27, DHS officials sent out the department’s first national terrorism bulletin about violent domestic extremists. The bulletin said that such extremists, driven by a range of issues, are prone to more violence in the coming months. It warned that some might use the Jan. 6 attack as inspiration.”
6. Hacker tries to poison water supply of Florida city
Here it comes. Right out of Unrestricted Warfare. I am not saying the Chinese did this but it is right out of their playbook. And more groups and nation-states have likely read and studied this book than just the Chinese.
Excerpt from Unrestricted Warfare. Note the quote of an FBI agent. I wonder how the 1996 President's Committee on Protection of Key Infrastructure of the US has evolved over the years. Note how the Chinese use our own words and writings.
“It is worth noting that following the "Information Warfare" ordinance of the American military, which placed enemy nation armies or world opponents on a par with non-approved users, inside personnel, terrorists, non-national organizations, and foreign intelligence organizations as the six sources of network threats, hackers with national or military backgrounds had already begun to reveal clues. [8] This not only greatly strengthened the battle formations of the hackers so that the actions of the disbanded and straggling hackers quickly escalated into national (network tyrant) actions, it also resulted in the increasing enlargement of the internet threat faced by all nations (including those nations with national or military hackers), and it becoming increasingly difficult to predict and guard against. The only thing which could be predicted was that the damage of this type of threat to the large network nation of the United States would certainly be greater than for other nations. Faced with theses prospects, even J. Saiteerdou [as printed 1049 3676 1422 6757], who is responsible for the investigation of computer crimes in the FBI of the United States, said with both self-confidence and worry: "Give me ten carefully chosen hackers, and within 90 days I would then be able to have this nation lay down its arms and surrender."
When compared with "network bandits" -- these network terrorist hackers -- the terror of the bombs of bin Laden are closer to the traditional terrorism in legacy. However, this does not prevent us from considering him to be within the ranks of new terrorism. “
7. IntelBrief: The State of Global Terrorism and Counterterrorism - The Soufan Center
thesoufancenter.org · February 9, 2021
Conclusion: Nearly two decades after the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States, the global terrorist landscape looks more diffuse and diverse, with the centralized core of transnational groups replaced with networks, regional affiliates, and more ideologically diverse violent groups. As communities continue to reel from social, economic, and personal losses due to the pandemic, violent extremist groups can also further exacerbate frustrations with policymakers and practitioners due to inadequate government resources in the face of soaring societal and economic losses from the pandemic. However, counterterrorism officials are not starting with a blank slate – there are over two decades of lessons learned and infrastructure developed. The key imperative will be to ensure these are fit for purpose to address current threats unfolding against a very different geopolitical, social, and economic backdrop.
8. Why U.S. Troops Should Remain in Afghanistan
realcleardefense.com · by Rafi Khetab
Five national security reasons why.
But I never expected Dr. King to be invoked in this argument.
Conclusion:
“America is the Afghan people’s Good Samaritan. As Dr. King said, “nothing would be more tragic than to stop at this point in Memphis.” Afghanistan, in its current situation of dire need, is America’s second Memphis. If Dr. King were alive today, he would say, "we have got to see it through," and call on President Biden to keep a minimum deterrent footprint of hard and soft power in Afghanistan until the mission is complete.”
9. Thoughts on the Unfolding U.S.-Chinese Competition: Washington’s Policy Towards Beijing Enters Its Next Phase
warontherocks.com · by Eric Sayers · February 9, 2021
A useful overview with some interesting analysis and perspectives.
Conclusion:
“The months ahead will see a slow rollout of Biden’s China policy as the team continues to staff up and review existing policy. Early signs of support for Taiwan, a continuation of maritime presence in the Western Pacific, a focus on China’s human rights record, and clear and direct messaging from the State Department are encouraging. Biden also singled China out in his first major foreign policy speech as America’s “most serious competitor” and insisted that his administration will engage in “extreme competition” with Beijing. There have also been stumbles, including the administration’s inconsistent signaling on the Huawei threat. However, just like the Truman-Eisenhower-Kennedy early years of the U.S.-Soviet competition, it appears for now that the Biden team is prepared to adopt the same macro-level approach to Beijing as the Trump administration while adopting their own priorities and methods to address the challenge. Republicans on Capitol Hill should be prepared to support the spirit of this agenda while offering thoughtful criticism when warranted and continuing to expand the successful bipartisan legislative agenda of 2018 to 2020. For their part, the Biden administration should expect that Democrats in Congress won’t shy away from rigorous and public oversight of their decision-making. Policy differences will not fade away — nor should analysts want them too — but the most successful China policy for the United States will be one where the two parties complement one other’s strengths and find ways to disagree without being disagreeable.”
10. How the United States Lost to Hackers
The New York Times · by Nicole Perlroth· February 6, 2021
- Now this is fascinating read. And very depressing. And scary.
11. The Strategic Offensive Against the CCP
Some sound and provocative recommendations.
Excerpts:
“Create Strategic Depth
The U.S. and its partners and allies make up to 50% of the world’s trading capacity. This is a big stick.
The U.S. should leverage the existing international organizations and create new ones to hold China accountable to the rules, which would level the playing field and slow Chinese expansion. The Paris Climate Agreement can be a vehicle for raising the costs of doing business in China. China, for ill or good, has become the world leader in renewable energy. A potential future problem is that China is vertically integrating the supply chains, controlling costs, and given the CCPs desire for leadership within the Paris framework, could control global environmental policies. Make no mistake that this would be to the U.S.’ detriment. The U.S. would become the dirty producer of coal and oil, a position that some backward-looking nationalists would attempt to sell as a benefit.
The U.S. should work to strengthen the World Trade Organization so it can become the anvil its creators wanted it to be. There are problems, not least the veto power that any one country can wield. This has allowed the CCP to keep the organization in line, defanged from any ruling that would hurt China. Hence, the worst policy the Trump administration proffered was its war against the WTO. In 2019, Trump blocked any new appointments to the WTO’s Appellate Body, which governs the WTO’s dispute settlement function. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. vetoed naming any new members to the appellate board, a critical body that adjudicates trade disputes. Reform is needed, but the WTO is the organization the West can use to curb China, given its mercantilist policies.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership must be immediately revived. The RCEP gives Beijing a big stick to herd what it will no doubt see as unfaithful bureaucracies but the RCEP has none of the constraints on moral imperatives like labor and environmental standards the U.S. led TTP had. The U.S. must provide a safe haven where those countries can turn once the gilt fades from their erstwhile economic overlords. Given the poor track record of Trump’s limited ‘trade war’, with China, it will be a heavy lift for the Biden administration to revamp a real economic competition with China. However, combined with a renewed focus on information warfare, an economic strategy that weans the global supply chain from the CCP can impose disproportionate costs on the CCP. More importantly, it must be done to reverse the strategic asymmetry.
12. How to deprogram America's extremists
Axios · by Kyle Daly
Another "Marshall Plan" analogy.
Excerpt:
“The U.S. needs a "Marshall Plan against domestic extremism," Daniel Koehler, director of the German Institute on Radicalization and De-radicalization Studies, told Axios.
-
- "The spread of extremist conspiracy theories in the United States is the second most dangerous pandemic the country faces right now," he said. "The damage that's been to the U.S. in terms of community and social cohesion will be immense and will be lasting."
- The radicalization is happening in a multitude of online spaces and right-wing media channels, pulling people into an alternate reality that posits, among a growing swarm of other false ideas, that the 2020 election was stolen.
- When it comes to coordinated deradicalization efforts, the U.S. is behind most European countries by 25 to 30 years, Koehler said.
13. Hicks Takes Reins as Deputy Secretary of Defense
defense.gov · by Jim Garamone
14. Aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt train together in South China Sea
Stars and Stripes· by Deidre Marsac
I wonder how often two of our aircraft carriers train together? Certainly not often in the South China Sea.
15. Biden quietly nixes Trump-era rule combating Chinese Communist-funded 'propaganda' centers
I wonder why this is not being more widely reported in the mainstream media?
16. Tough to defend against ‘flying IEDs’: US general
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · February 8, 2021
I think it is only a matter of time before this gets adopted as a major terrorist tool.
17. Xinhua Commentary: "America is back," or simply swinging backward?
Chinese propaganda criticising the US.
18. National Security Memorandum 2—What’s new in Biden’s NSC Structure?
lawfareblog.com · February 8, 2021
A useful tutorial on the new structure of the Biden NSC.
19. Excerpt from ‘The Princess Spy’
militarytimes.com · by Larry Loftis · February 9, 2021
Some history for today.
Another book for the to-read list. I just ordered the Kindle today
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"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
- Isaac Asimov
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"If you aren't going all the way, why go at all?"