News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Former U.S. nuke negotiator urges Seoul, Washington to refrain from large-scale military exercises
2. Exclusive: North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach - U.S. official
3. Thaad fallout needs to serve as a “wakeup call” for Seoul: Daalder
4. Biden, Quad leaders affirm commitment to denuclearization of N. Korea
5. Blinken to embark on Asia trip to discuss N. Korea, China issues amid U.S. policy review
6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health is the biggest threat to his power — and his sister's only shot at succession
7. Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance - Atlantic Council
8. North Korean Defectors Want America to Fight Kim to the Last American
9. North Korea Tried to Help Syria Become a Nuclear Powerhouse
10. #53: Establish a US-ROK Alliance Cyber-Defense and Cyber-Deterrence Mechanism
1. Former U.S. nuke negotiator urges Seoul, Washington to refrain from large-scale military exercises
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 12, 2021
With all due respect, Ambassador Gallucci could not be more wrong. I will defer to him for his long experience negotiating with north Korea and brokering the Agreed Framework. However, his military advice could not be more wrong and dangerous. It will put the ROK at great security risk and it will not result in his desired effects- reciprocity and a change in north Korean behavior. We have tested this hypothesis since June 2018 aswe have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back exercises and it has not resulted in any improvements in any area - weather north-South relations, US-north negotiations, or reductions in the threat along the DMZ. The north has continued to develop military capabilities, continued training for offensive operations, stiff-armed all South Korean efforts for engagement, and has not agreed to participate in the most basic of nuclear negotiations, e.g., working level talks.
2. Exclusive: North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach - U.S. official
Reuters · by Phil Stewart · March 13, 2021
As most of us suspected the Administration has been attempting to reach out through back channels (if this report is accurate). Perhaps after the past three years of unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy, Kim doesn't think he needs to respond through more conventional diplomatic channels. We are going to have to wean him off the notion that he gets to deal directly with POTUS without allowing for real (and principled) diplomacy to be conducted.
3. Thaad fallout needs to serve as a “wakeup call” for Seoul: Daalder
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim
And more to this interview.
Key excerpt:
“If you’re sitting in Seoul, you’d say, wouldn’t it make sense if I am part of this discussion since our views and our perspectives are a little closer to this alignment than it is to China?” said Daalder. “Now, I don’t think the U.S. or the Quad says you need to choose us or them, I don’t think that’s smart, but finding ways to collaborate more closely probably is a good idea.”
He noted that the fallout over the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system, resulting in Beijing's economic retaliation against Seoul, should be a “wakeup call” for South Korea to ask, “Are we going to let the Chinese determine what we needed to do for our own defense, or are we going to work together with our allies?”
He added that the Biden administration is expected to “start a dialogue” with Korea to find an understanding on where common interests and values lie and on “how we might cooperate and compete, and if necessary, confront China.”
4. Biden, Quad leaders affirm commitment to denuclearization of N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 13, 2021
We should not forget that the UN Security Council has passed resolutions calling for the denuclearization of the north. It is the desire of the international community that north Korea denuclearize. It is not up to the US or even the Quad to seek a lesser objective than what the international community has called for so it would have been wrong for the Quad to do anything other than reaffirm the commitment.
5. Blinken to embark on Asia trip to discuss N. Korea, China issues amid U.S. policy review
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · March 14, 2021
This trip could be a major inflection point for the US in Northeast Asia and could establish the path forward for US interests and collective security for years to come - at least for the remainder of the Biden administration (no pressure!). But if the two secretaries and two ministers can come to agreement on the fundamental strategic assumptions regarding the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime as well as work the other issues of OPCON transition, human rights, counter-proliferation, sanctions enforcement, US forces access to training areas, strategic flexibility for US forces, great power competition and the impact of China-US relations on the alliance, ROK-Japan relations, and the Quad Plus it will go along way to re-establishing a solid alliance foundation to achieve our mutual objectives of national security and national prosperity. These four gentlemen have a lot on their plate this next week.
6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health is the biggest threat to his power — and his sister's only shot at succession
ABC.net.au · March 13, 2021
Interesting speculation. I am sure we have physicians as part of the Korea watcher team.
Perhaps Kim should be afraid, very afraid.
7. Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance - Atlantic Council
Atlantic Council · by Barry Pavel, Miyeon Oh, and Markus Garlauskas
The 64 page report can be downloaded here. Chapter summaries are below.
Executive Summary
1. A New ‘National Security Alliance’: Re-setting the US-ROK Alliance for the Pandemic Era
2. The Future of the US-ROK Economic Partnership
3. A Step-by-Step Strategy for Denuclearization and Peace on the Korean Peninsula: The Road Not Taken after Singapore
4. The Evolving North Korean Threat Requires an Evolving Alliance
5. North Korean Non-Nuclear Threats to Stability
8. North Korean Defectors Want America to Fight Kim to the Last American
The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 13, 2021
A rather disingenuous and insulting title to the great people who have escaped from north Korea (even if the author acknowledges their bravery).
The escapees I know certainly want Kim Jong-un deposed; however, most I know (and I know more than a few) do not want the US to start a war or want the US to do it for them. Most all believe that Korean solutions are required and not American ones. They certainly advocate for US help but they certainly do not advocate the US fighting to the last American. That is truly insulting.
In addition hope is not a course of action. But the author bases his policy recommendations on hope rather than a realistic assessment of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
Excerpts:
“Although North Korean defectors typically do not provide good policy advice regarding the DPRK, they are a useful reminder of the moral stakes in defusing the Korean confrontation. The endless cold war favored by some hawks ensures stasis on human rights as well.
The Biden administration should follow up its predecessor’s emphasis on negotiation and press a balanced initiative that offers improved economic and political relations in exchange for serious disarmament. Perhaps Kim Jong-un will dismiss the bargain. On the other hand, he just might demonstrate that he is different from his father and grandfather. It would be foolish for Washington to lose the opportunity without trying.”
9. North Korea Tried to Help Syria Become a Nuclear Powerhouse
The National Interest · by Marcel Serr · March 12, 2021
This is why we need to aggressively focus on north Korean proliferation activities. It is a real international threat. And we should never allow proliferation to proceed as far as it did with Syria.
10. #53: Establish a US-ROK Alliance Cyber-Defense and Cyber-Deterrence Mechanism
Atlantic Council · by Markus Garlauskas · March 13, 2021
In 2018 my colleague Mathew Ha and I wrote this:
Create a combined ROK-U.S. Cyber Task Force
Since the ROK and U.S. are the primary targets for North Korean cyber activities, the alliance should establish a task force of ROK and U.S. cyber experts to synchronize defenses and options for offensive operations. Although joint task forces are often ineffective, a combined entity should be pursued to ensure the alliance could adequately defend against the full range of North Korea’s cyber threats, from CEEW to wartime cyber operations.
On June 21, the 5th U.S.-Republic of Korea Bilateral Cyber Consultations were held in Seoul “to discuss a wide range of cyber issues, including cooperation on deterring cyber adversaries, cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, capacity building, information sharing, military-to-military cyber cooperation, cybercrime, international security issues in cyberspace, and current threats and trends in the international cyber environment.”163 An agenda item for the next consultative meeting and for the ROK/U.S. security consultative meeting in fall 2018 should be the establishment of a permanent combined ROK/U.S. cyber task force to supplement periodic consultation. A permanent task force is necessary to defend economic infrastructure and address the full range of cyber threats, including CEEW.
The Cyber Task Force should develop a combined strategy for operations during both armistice and wartime. It should consist of military and civilian experts from across the U.S. and ROK governments and include private sector experts as well. This would not contradict the indefinite suspension of combined military exercises following the Singapore summit. In fact, given that North Korea is likely to continue or escalate aggressive cyber operations during nuclear negotiations, the task force’s mission is only more urgent.
The new task force should include enhanced information sharing. For instance, South Korea’s Korea Internet Safety Agency successfully prevented a spear-phishing campaign targeting 10 cryptocurrency exchanges earlier in 2017.164 Sharing insights from such experiences will be instrumental in fortifying cyber defenses.
The United States National Cyber Strategy calls for developing international partner capacity to support a new cyber deterrence initiative. A Combined ROK-U.S. Task Force would be one example of operationalizing
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- James D. Best, Tempest at Dawn
“Politics doesn’t mean playing deceitful and trickery games against the people, it means playing resourceful and organized games for the people.”
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