News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops
2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office
3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'
4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed
5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy
6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden
7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker
8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition
9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)
10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts
11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses
12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore
13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?
14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK
15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead
16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)
1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 16, 2021
As was our concern. People told me that there is nothing to worry about because Moon's party is the majority in the national assembly and they would approve the SMA. But it is his own party members who are objecting.
The SMA is not a done deal and Moon will have to expend some political capital to get it approved. There are those in Moon's party who have a decidedly anti-American, anti-Alliance sentiment and they are now demonstrating public opposition and it is likely more will follow.
This is an inflection point for the alliance.
2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office
CNN · by Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
Never say never. But to do so now could remove any near term opportunities for negotiations.
What the regime may be hoping for is that the raising of tension by Kim Yo-jong will be sufficient for the ROK and international community as well as the US to want to increase calls for negotiations. Of course we are going to call for negotiations, I am sure that will be part of the Biden administration policy review. However, the regime may be setting the conditions to say its blackmail diplomacy line of effort works in support of its political warfare strategy. Blackmail diplomacy = the use of threats, tension, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. If the regime agrees to negotiations, it will assess it can do so because the call for negotiations by the US is in response to the regime's position of strength. Yes, we should negotiate but we should not be afraid to expose the north Korean political warfare strategy. Exposing their strategy allows us to operate from a position of greater strength than the regime.
3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'
Reuters · by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali · March 17, 2021
There must be intelligence indicators. The general is inoculating us to the next test. It will not be a surprise and it can allow the Biden administration to take a measured response to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve without take part in a rhetorical exchange with the regime. The Biden administration would do well to adopt a Teddy Roosevelt approach - talk softly and carry a big stick.
4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021
We should not mock north Korean propaganda for its over the top visuals and rhetoric. It often communicates the regime's true intentions. And of course this type of propaganda is important for controlling the attitudes of the Korean people living in the north.
5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021
Actually as Robert Collins teaches us, it is the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) that is the control tower for everything, especially for the denial of human rights of the Korean people living in the north.
6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · March 17, 2021
We must be ready but this also could play a role in deterring such a test because our exposure of the possibility takes away the north's form of "shock and awe." We can say: "Nothing to see here" - "happened as expected" "The regime is simply testing to advance its capabilities" "It has no intention of reducing or halting its missile and nuclear development". "But make no mistake the US will defend the security of the US and its allies and here are some of the strategic capabilities that can crush the Kim family regime" - (deploy some B-1s, B-2s, B-52s, F-35s to the region).
7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 17, 2021
This is unhelpful. But I guess this is why the ROK and US agreed to the statement of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula at Panmunjom and Singapore.
I also doubt very much China is "scared" of a nuclear South Korea or Japan.
8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 17, 2021
OPCON transition will be a critical friction point for the alliance as will be the different strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)
An important OpEd from the Joongang Ilbo's editorial board warning the Moon administration over the exercises and training rhetoric.
However, this excerpt is not accurate. It was not the ROK that "scaled down" the training and replaced it with computer simulation. It was always a computer simulation and the exercise was planned by ROK/US CFC planners - ROK and US officers. It was not scaled back by the ROK.
Excerpt: "We urge our government and military authorities to declare their clear position on joint military exercises. The Moon Jae-in administration not only scaled down the joint drill, which began earlier this month, but also replaced it with a computer-simulated command post training instead of mobilizing troops. The government may have pinned hopes on the possibility that North Korea will accept its proposal for dialogue as long as the annual drill could pass quietly."
This conclusion provides the warning to the Moon administration and a correct description of the Biden administration as well as the prescription for a strong alliance:
“The Moon administration must immediately stop flattering North Korea. If not, it will fall into a vicious cycle of emboldening it. For instance, the government hurriedly enacted a law aimed at punishing the act of sending anti-North leaflets and other materials cross the border shortly after Kim Yo-jong condemned the practice. Such submissive attitudes send the wrong message to North Korea.
Kim Yo-jong warned the United States not to engage in any provocative acts in the next four years if it wants its people to sleep at night. The Kim regime is closely monitoring the Biden administration’s new North Korea policy. But if Pyongyang believes such a threat can help change the new U.S. administration, that’s a serious miscalculation. On their trip to Seoul Wednesday, the two U.S. secretaries have a two-plus-two meeting with their counterparts. Seoul and Washington must speak in the same voice to prevent North Korea’s provocations and encourage policy changes from Pyongyang.”
10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts
dailynk.com · March 17, 2021
The regime is defending against its existential threat: information and knowledge among the Korean people living in the north. The "criminal behavior" is listening to outside information.
This excerpt explains the nature of north Korea and rule by the Kim family regime. But I know there are those who think "anti-reactionary thought laws" might be a good thing for some partisan agendas.
11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 17, 2021
Good words from the SECSTATE. We must take a human rights upfront approach and we must never be afraid to call out the mafia-like crime family cult for its documented crimes against humanity.
12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore
19fortyfive.com · by Eric Gomez · March 16, 2021
This assessment, while possibly having some truth to it, is troubling. This is not a good sign for the ROK/US alliance and hopefully the SECSATTE and SECDEF will be able to prevent this perception:
“Washington’s review of its North Korea policy is still ongoing but based on these recent statements it seems likely that the Biden administration will adopt a policy that is more closely aligned with Japan’s rather than South Korea’s preferences. This would be bad news for the Moon administration, which has consistently stressed the need for greater U.S. engagement with North Korea despite Kim going to ground after the Hanoi summit.
A tougher U.S. policy that brings Washington and Tokyo into closer alignment would help Biden differentiate himself from Trump, but it is unlikely to nudge North Korea closer to either denuclearization or arms control. Instead of trying to make allies happy, the Biden administration should focus on looking out for the best interests of the United States.”
13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?
38 NORTH · March 16, 2021
A very optimistic assessment.
But let me state the real meaning of the action described in this excerpt. It is correct that the regime does not want Moon to align too closely with Biden:
“Kim Yo Jong’s statement is transparently aimed at South Korea in advance of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Seoul. The bottom line is pretty clear: President Moon Jae-in might still make some sort of progress in inter-Korean relations before the end of his term—which is fast approaching at the beginning of next year—but only IF he presses the US and doesn’t line up 100 percent with a new US policy should it call for more pressure against the North.
But the true intent is to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. That is a key line of effort (Divide to conquer - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK) and the key condition to be able to ensure the survival of the regime by bringing the entire peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.”
14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK
Hani · by Lee Je-hun · March 10, 2021
Dangerous, troubling, and immoral thinking and comments from Moon Chung-in. This is the type of advice Moon Jae-in is receiving from one of his closest advisors.
15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead
The Telegraph · by Mark Almond
This is a great description of the Kim family regime:
“Perhaps the best way to understand North Korea’s peculiar tactics – courtship by insult and threat – is to imagine them with a David Attenborough voiceover in the background: “The Kim is a ferocious beast, known to devour its closest relatives, but it emits a radioactive glow and sharp barks when trying to lure a mate from the wider world.”
16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)
historicly.substack.com · by Robert Granniss
It is nice of the publisher to provide the time hacks and the bullet points. But anyone who follows Korea will note the huge inaccuracies (and outlandish ideas) of some of the statements.
The podcast can be accessd here:
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"I don't mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I've had quite a few tough ones in my life. But I learned an important lesson along the way: In the end, it matters less that you can fight. What you fight for is the real test."
-John McCain
"I have sacrificed not only my favorite scheme of life, but the softer affections of the heart, and my prospects of domestic happiness, and I am ready to sacrifice my life also, with cheerfulness, if that forfeiture could restore peace and good will among mankind."
- John Paul Jones
"Leadership means firmness, not harshness or bullying; understanding, not weakness; justice, not irresponsible freedom; humaneness, not intolerance; generosity, not selfishness; pride, not egotism"
- Omar N. Bradley