News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs
1. Estimating North Korea’s Nuclear Stockpiles: An Interview With Siegfried Hecker
2. N. Korea should not miss opportunity
3. Military closely monitoring N.K. activities, no unusual signs yet: JCS
4. Police chief orders thorough probe into anti-N.K. leafleting by defector group
5. Unification minister vows continued efforts for 'meaningful' change in inter-Korean ties
6. N. Korea said to quit World Cup qualifiers to be hosted by S. Korea in June
7. Japan, South Korea nowhere near rapprochement
8. Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung Eui-Yong Before Their Meeting
9. Opinion | This ex-Marine tried to help a North Korean diplomat defect. Now he faces decades in prison.
10. N.K. paper calls for tightened efforts against 'devil's virus'
11. North Korea accuses Joe Biden of pursuing 'hostile policy' over its nuclear programme
12. S. Korea launches new frigate with improved anti-submarine capabilities
13. South Korea eyes production hub for COVID-19 vaccines
14. Biden takes a firm stance on N. Korean nuclear issue
15. Biden's N.Korea Policy Sends a Worrying Signal
16. Picasso's 'Massacre in Korea' displayed here for first time
17. Moon's Approval Rating Nosedives Below 30%
1. Estimating North Korea’s Nuclear Stockpiles: An Interview With Siegfried Hecker
38north.org · April 30, 2021
The key point: “How many bombs can North Korea make with those inventories of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and can they make hydrogen bombs?
SH: The plutonium bomb that destroyed Nagasaki in August 1945 used around six kilograms. The Hiroshima bomb used HEU, but it was of a primitive design. How much plutonium or HEU the North Koreans need for a bomb depends on how good their scientists are and what kind of bomb they want to build. A reasonable estimate is five kilograms for plutonium bombs and 25 kilograms for HEU bombs. Using the plutonium and HEU inventories I mentioned leads me to believe the most likely number of bombs is 45. The recent estimates in a RAND/Asan Institute report of 67 to 116 today and 151 to 242 by 2027 are much too high. They estimate that North Korea has the capacity to add 12 to 18 bombs per year; ours is closer to six.
As for hydrogen bombs, these need fusion fuels, namely the heavy hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium. Deuterium is easy to produce. Tritium has to be produced in reactors. Looking at the North’s reactor operations over the years, I believe they have produced small amounts of tritium, perhaps enough for a few hydrogen bombs. The real question, of course, is, do they know how to design and build a hydrogen bomb? We are not certain, but the sixth nuclear test was large enough to have been a hydrogen bomb. It likely used a plutonium fission device to drive the fusion reaction. Since the production of plutonium and tritium requires reactors, it is very important to stop reactor operations in Yongbyon permanently.
2. N. Korea should not miss opportunity
donga.com · May 3, 2021
This is the key point - the regime wants sanctions lifted before even talking. But the last sentence of this excerpt is the Donga Ilbo's warning to the north.
North Korea should show a change of attitude as the U.S. mentioned upholding the Singapore Agreement and the possibility of easing sanctions. While North Korea argues for ‘first easing sanctions, then talking,’ it is well acknowledged that such an option is not realistic. North Korea also demanded at the Hanoi Summit the easing of key sanctions with the condition of dismantling nuclear facilities in Nyongbyon. North Korea should understand that the Biden administration’s stance of ‘careful, calibrated diplomatic approach’ can change any time with the North’s provocations.
3. Military closely monitoring N.K. activities, no unusual signs yet: JCS
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · May 3, 2021
Is the operative word "Yet?"
4. Police chief orders thorough probe into anti-N.K. leafleting by defector group
en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · May 3, 2021
Stop the appeasement of Kim Yo-jong and the Korean family regime.
5. Unification minister vows continued efforts for 'meaningful' change in inter-Korean ties
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 3, 2021
Minister Lee just keeps doubling down on his failed ideas and demonstrating a pack of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
6. N. Korea said to quit World Cup qualifiers to be hosted by S. Korea in June
en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · May 3, 2021
I will be hard to reprise the 2018 Olympic engagement. Of maybe the regime just begs the international community for nK participation.
Excerpt: An official from the KFA said the AFC is expected to ask North Korea to reconsider its decision not to travel to South Korea, because there is still some time left before the centralized matches kick off here.
7. Japan, South Korea nowhere near rapprochement
asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · May 3, 2021
The only way we are going to see an improvement in Japan-ROK relations is if both Moon and Suga decide to exercise decisive leadership and in the face of domestic criticism prioritize national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues.
8. Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung Eui-Yong Before Their Meeting
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken
Hopefully there will be some substantive remarks following their meeting.
9. Opinion | This ex-Marine tried to help a North Korean diplomat defect. Now he faces decades in prison.
The Washington Post · by Max Boot and Sue Mi Terry · May 2, 2021
We should not be extraditing Mr. Ahn.
10. N.K. paper calls for tightened efforts against 'devil's virus'
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 3, 2021
The regime must sustain the threat of COVID to justify imposition of its draconian population and resources control measures in order to further oppress the people to protect the Kim family regime from internal threat.
11. North Korea accuses Joe Biden of pursuing 'hostile policy' over its nuclear programme
It is the Kim family regime that has been pursuing a "hostile policy" toward South Korea and the international community for some 7 decades. It seeks domination of the Korean peninsula and there is no more hostile policy than that.
Kim Jong-un is mirror imaging and projecting.
12. S. Korea launches new frigate with improved anti-submarine capabilities
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · May 3, 2021
This is more important for the defense of Korea than the development of a nuclear powered submarine.
13. South Korea eyes production hub for COVID-19 vaccines
m.koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · May 3, 2021
Reporting on vaccines in Korea is all over the map.
14. Biden takes a firm stance on N. Korean nuclear issue
donga.com · May 3, 2021
This is the unstated difference and friction in the ROK/US alliance about the new US policy for north Korea. We have two different views of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Will we be able to close that gap with the upcoming alliance meetings and president summit on May 21st? Or will we allow the regime to pursue one of its most important lines of effort in its long con and political warfare strategy: divide to conquer - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.
Excerpt: However, the North warned, “They will face a serious situation.” It is a response toward Biden’s first congressional speech that mentioned “diplomacy” and “strong sanctions” as the principle of North Korea policy on Wednesday (local time) and America’s continuous presentation of North Korean human rights issue. The South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae did not make an official announcement regarding this. “The South Korean government is anticipating positive responses of the North for efforts made by the U.S. and South Korea,” said the Foreign Ministry in Seoul.
15. Biden's N.Korea Policy Sends a Worrying Signal
We should keep in mind that none of us have seen the actual policy (and most of us may never and should not see the full details - many of which should be classified). So everyone is making judgments based on a few statements. And many of the judgments are made to further agendas and preconceived notions.
But "diplomacy and ster deterrence" is in effect the same approach that has gotten the U.S. government nowhere for the last 30 years. The fact that the Biden administration was unable to come up with anything different after a 100-day policy review shows just how complicated the North Korean nuclear question is. As expected, North Korea responded with one of its usual tirades, accusing the U.S. of making a "big blunder" and warning of a "very grave situation." The North is threatening to test launch long and short-range nuclear missiles unless the U.S. eases sanctions or decreases its troop presence in South Korea. Already, the U.S. and South Korea have halted annual joint military exercises to appease North Korea, but to no avail. If the North does not get what it wants, it always resorts to provocation, so close cooperation between the U.S. and its allies is needed more than ever.
Conclusion: “Kim believes hanging on to his nuclear weapons is his only hope of remaining in power. That attitude has not changed since the days of former his father Kim Jong-il. Hopes of denuclearization are fading rapidly. Moon will sit face to face with Biden on May 21. He needs to let the U.S. leader know that his goal is the complete scrapping of North Korea's nuclear weapons, not another publicity stunt.
16. Picasso's 'Massacre in Korea' displayed here for first time
The Korea Times · May 3, 2021
I am an in no way art aficionado. I was familiar with Picasso’s other two works but not this one from the Korean War.
Please go to the link if you cannot see the painting in this message.
17. Moon's Approval Rating Nosedives Below 30%
Historic lows.
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"If you hear a voice within you say 'you cannot paint,' then by all means paint and that voice will be silenced."
- Vincent Van Gogh
“If you hate a person, then you’re defeated by them.“
- Confucius
“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new.”
- Socrates