News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs
1. Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
2. A wider war coming to Myanmar
3. Afghanistan Withdrawal Won't Be Like 'Fall of Saigon,' Deputy SecDef Says
4. China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’
5. US-led ‘psychological wars’ against Russia, China lead to all lose situation
6. Philippines foreign minister issues expletive-laced tweet over China sea dispute
7. China: Totalitarianism’s Long Shadow
8. Could China send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan?
9. China is Trying to Break up the Five Eyes Intelligence Network
10. Organizing for Large-Scale Maritime Combat Operations
11. Increase in rare-earth mining in Myanmar may be funding junta
12. Australia Is Reviewing China’s Ownership of a Darwin Port
13. S. Korea, China, Japan express concern over uneven economic revival in Asia
14. How a More Resilient America Beat a Midcentury Pandemic
15. From the Past, a Chilling Warning About the Extremists of the Present
16. No ‘Boogeyman’: Why the Bin Laden Raid Might be the Last Unifying Moment for US Foreign Policy
17. The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict
18. Opinion | Is America a Racist Country?
1. Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · May 3, 2021
I guess if we do not reach herd immunity Darwin rules will prevail. There will be a culling of the human herd.
2. A wider war coming to Myanmar
asiatimes.com · by Bertil Lintner · May 1, 2021
Excerpts: “Even without a unified ethnic resistance, there is still a chance that the Tatmadaw’s old guard could move to break the stalemate by pressuring or even trying to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing and his top deputies before the situation deteriorates further.
The SLORC and SPDC were likewise brutal outfits and no friends of democracy, but former junta chief and commander-in-chief Senior General Than Shwe did initiate liberal reforms that led to a more open society and vastly improved relations with the West and wider world before stepping aside in 2010.
Than Shwe is now in his late 80s and political analysts in Myanmar believe that the current chaos is hardly the kind of legacy he would want to leave behind. Whether the aging general has the wherewithal, influence or inclination to try to rein in Min Aung Hlaing is unknown, but the anarchy unleashed by his coup is clearly not in the military establishment’s short or long-term interests.
3. Afghanistan Withdrawal Won't Be Like 'Fall of Saigon,' Deputy SecDef Says
military.com · by Stephen Losey · April 30, 2021
4. China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’
news.com.au · by Jamie Seidel · May 2, 2021
We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to Political Warfare. Political warfare is how we should describe the competition space between peace and war and is the defining element in Great Power Competition. While state on state warfare is the most dangerous threat or course of action of GCP and why we must absolutely invest in deterrence and defense, Political War is the most likely threat or course of action.
It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian “War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries’ views: “Politics is war by other means” or as Mao said, “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.”
5. US-led ‘psychological wars’ against Russia, China lead to all lose situation
theedgemarkets.com · May 3, 2021
China doth protest too much. And it is guilty of mirror imaging or projecting. It is China who has the "three warfares:" psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare.
6. Philippines foreign minister issues expletive-laced tweet over China sea dispute
This should spark the twitter war - perhaps it gives new meaning to better to jaw-jaw than war-war. I have never seen such a "diplomatic statement." Perhaps twitter does bring out the worst in us.
The tweet: "China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see… O…GET THE FUCK OUT," Locsin said in a tweet on his personal account."What are you doing to our friendship? You. Not us. We're trying. You. You're like an ugly oaf forcing your attentions on a handsome guy who wants to be a friend; not to father a Chinese province…", Locsin said.
7. China: Totalitarianism’s Long Shadow
journalofdemocracy.org · by Minxin Pei
Excerpts: “Given the self-destructive dynamics of neo-Stalinism and the strategic odds stacked against the Party, the future could see Xi’s nightmare realized as economic, political, and external conditions akin to those that plagued the late-stage Soviet regime begin to beset CCP rule.
By that time, China’s socioeconomic conditions will be even more favorable for a democratic breakthrough than they are today. Even if we [End Page 18] assume annual growth averaging 3 percent between now and 2035 (a very modest figure by PRC standards), that will yield a per capita GDP exceeding $25,000 a year in Purchasing Power Parity terms. Meanwhile, another hundred-million people will have graduated from college, raising the share of the populace with a postsecondary degree to just over a fifth.
Will this bring a decisive political mobilization against one-party rule by 2035? No one can say, but with a per capita income which will be equal to that of Chile today and about three-hundred million college-educated citizens, Chinese society will by then be abler than ever to press for democratic change. If the fate of post-totalitarian communist dictatorships in the old Soviet bloc is any guide, a bet worth making is that China’s long journey from Maoism to neo-Stalinism via a three-decade trip through post-totalitarianism will be seen as a historical detour that delayed but could not prevent a rendezvous with democratic change. When that meeting happens, Lipset’s modernization thesis shall have its last laugh—and China may finally march out of the long, dark shadow of its totalitarian past.
8. Could China send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan?
thinkchina.sg · by Ma Haiyun · May 3, 2021
The very first point - will there be a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan? I have not heard any discussion of such a mission.
Conclusion: "The prospect of Chinese peacekeeping troops in Afghanistan may later emerge when the Kabul regime, as China’s traditional security partner, either becomes transformed as part of the interim government or even replaced by the Taliban. A UN solution of peacekeeping is certainly helpful to promoting peace in future Afghanistan, but China’s participation owing to geostrategic interests may complicate this mission."
9. China is Trying to Break up the Five Eyes Intelligence Network
gatestoneinstitute.org · by Con Coughlin · May 3, 2021
Excerpts: “China is making a deliberate attempt to create divisions within the elite "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing alliance by forging closer relations with the left-wing government of New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern.
The Five Eyes alliance, comprising the US, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand, dates back to the Second World War, when a number of key allies decided to share intelligence in their bid to defeat Nazi Germany and Japan.
Today, maintaining intelligence-sharing cooperation between the five Anglophone nations is deemed essential to combating the threat posed by autocratic states, such as Russia and Communist China.
10. Organizing for Large-Scale Maritime Combat Operations
divergentoptions.org · by Michael D. Purzycki · May 3, 2021
I don't think large-scale maritime combat operations will be restricted to the maritime domain.
11. Increase in rare-earth mining in Myanmar may be funding junta
The Telegraph · by Maighna Nanu
Excerpts: “Limiting military access to foreign currency is the “primary financial pressure point that could elicit a change” in the junta’s behaviour, concluded this week’s IEM report.
Sanctioning the regime’s foreign assets generated from natural gas, mining, forestry, shipping and airlines would cut off roughly $2 billion per year in financing for the military, it said.
The US and the UK have both imposed visa bans and asset freezes on individual generals and moved to sanction the military-controlled conglomerates, Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC).
The two firms operate in lucrative sectors such as mining, tobacco and gemstones.
12. Australia Is Reviewing China’s Ownership of a Darwin Port
Bloomberg · by Jason Scott · May 3, 2021
Excerpts: “China slammed Australia’s decision last month to use new laws to cancel Belt-and-Road agreements with the Victorian state government. There has been increasing speculation Morrison may use the laws, passed in December, to scrap long-term leases held by Chinese companies at the ports in Darwin and Newcastle.
“In relation to the Port of Darwin, if there is any advice that I receive from the Department of Defence or intelligence agencies that suggest there are national security risks there, then you would expect the government to take action on that,” Morrison said in a radio interview Friday.
13. S. Korea, China, Japan express concern over uneven economic revival in Asia
m.koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · May 3, 2021
Excerpts: “At the meeting of the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, which was held later in the day, the leaders called for the early implementation of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest free trade deal, signed by 15 countries including Australia and New Zealand in November 2020.
They said the deal will help strengthen economic linkages and enhance trade- and investment-related activities.
During the trilateral meeting, the finance minister told his counterparts that the country will continue with expansionary fiscal policy until the economy gets back on track and will push for the Korean green new deal in pursuit of sustainable growth through the development of the renewable energy sector.
Close cooperation among the three nations will create the strong synergy needed to tackle pending issues they have in common, such as climate change and the restoration of multilateralism, as well as low birth rates and aging populations, he added.
14. How a More Resilient America Beat a Midcentury Pandemic
WSJ · by Niall Ferguson
Some fascinating history.
15. From the Past, a Chilling Warning About the Extremists of the Present
The New York Times · by Neil MacFarquhar · May 2, 2021
More interesting and important history.
16. No ‘Boogeyman’: Why the Bin Laden Raid Might be the Last Unifying Moment for US Foreign Policy
defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher
Excerpts: “The raid that killed bin Laden was not the uniting moment. It was the culmination of a groundswell of rallying around the flag that began with the 9/11 attacks themselves,” said Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University and former National Security Council staffer in the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations. “...To have the impact of the bin Laden raid, it would likely need to be preceded by a galvanizing moment that dramatized the threat. Such a moment is not to be wished for, since it would be a great national tragedy.”
Feaver speculated a “dramatic gesture” to end the Iranian or North Korean nuclear weapons program forever could elicit a celebration across America akin to that felt after the bin Laden raid, but acknowledged such an operation would also likely have a high death toll.
Still, others wondered if America could unite over something positive.
“What about people celebrating the moment in time when the world is rid of Covid?” Ben-Yehuda said. “Or of celebrating a billion Covid shots sent from the U.S. to the developing world. This country is capable of greatness.”
17. The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict
madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · by user · May 3, 2021
The 28 page document can be downloaded here.
18. Opinion | Is America a Racist Country?
The New York Times · by Charles M. Blow · May 2, 2021
A very controversial opinion piece about one of the most controversial and divisive subjects of our time.
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- Vincent Van Gogh
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- Socrates