News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. We need to talk about Kim: US and South Korea remain far apart on the North as first summit approaches
2. Donald Kirk: Is South Korea next in line for US forces withdrawal?
3. Moon, entering final year, pledges last-ditch efforts to revive NK diplomacy
4. Two Organization and Guidance Department officials expelled to rural areas with their families
5. Kaesong party committee tries to send people to mines and rural areas
6. Moon urges North Korea to return to negotiation table
7. Moon Marks 4th Year in Office
8. Critics say Moon's special address far from public sentiment
9. Defector activist grilled by police over anti-N.K. leafleting
10. N.K. paper highlights nationwide support for farming amid rice-planting season
11. Russia, China are cozying up to North Korea
12. Bringing Korea Back into the Fold by Victor Cha
13. Biden in the Asia Pacific
14. Seoul Officials on Long 'Study' Jaunts to U.S., U.K
15. How to deal with a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un
1. We need to talk about Kim: US and South Korea remain far apart on the North as first summit approaches
We need to talk about Kim: US and South Korea remain far apart on the North as first summit approaches
Joe Biden and Moon Jae-in meet later this month and one topic will dominate - North Korea. Donald Kirk, in Washington, reports on the differences dividing the allies when it comes to dealing with Kim Jong Un
2. Donald Kirk: Is South Korea next in line for US forces withdrawal?
wacotrib.com · by Donald Kirk · May 06, 2021
As I previously wrote: Some of my Korean friends worry about the Pentagon's force posture review and about US troop withdrawals from other areas (e.g., Afghanistan) and how it might affect force posture in Korea. But to my Korean friends I would not worry about the review or other withdrawals from other countries. What could drive changes to US force posture in Korea could be the logistic support for THAAD and the ability for US forces to conduct training, particularly live fire training, to maintain qualifications and certifications. if US forces do not have sufficient access to adequate training areas to remain qualified then those forces could be subject to withdrawal. As Confucius said, "To lead an untrained people to war is to throw them away."
Key points: “Victor Cha, who served as Korea expert on the national security council during the presidency of George W. Bush and now runs Korean issues at the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, had a ready answer to my questions: “Might Biden go for a peace treaty or end-of-war agreement with North Korea, pulling U.S. troops out of Korea — also as Trump talked about? Is Biden’s decision on Afghanistan setting precedent for U.S. policy with its two Northeast Asia allies, Korea and Japan?”
Cha’s response was unequivocal. “I don’t think so,” he emailed back. “The situations are not really comparable. I’m not worried about withdrawals because of the impact on the credibility of U.S. security commitments to our allies in the region.”
In other words, concerns about South Korean defenses against North Korea are too inextricably bound to China’s burgeoning presence and also to U.S. relations with Japan for the U.S. to consider bugging out. The attitude of the liberal South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the conservative Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga may be quite different, and South Korea and Japan are not going to engage in real “trilateral cooperation” as long as contentious historical disputes remain unresolved, but leaders of both countries have to view U.S. troops as essential to maintaining peace in the region.
3. Moon, entering final year, pledges last-ditch efforts to revive NK diplomacy
koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · May 10, 2021
The Moon administration will double down on his "peace at any cost" agenda. I too want peace on the Korean peninsula but I fear the Moon policy, if fully implemented with all the concessions desired, will actually increase the chances of conflict and will simply play right into the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy that is based on subversion, coercion/extortion 9blackmail diplomacy) and the use of force to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
4. Two Organization and Guidance Department officials expelled to rural areas with their families
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · May 10, 2021
The OGD is the most important department or organization in north Korea and the most important to Kim Jong-un himself. It theoretically should consist of the most loyal and thoroughly vetted personnel.
But no organization is immune from corruption and of course the more powerful and influence an organization has, the more likely there will be corruption to exploit that power in a country like north Korea.
5. Kaesong party committee tries to send people to mines and rural areas
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 10, 2021
This will be an experiment to see how much contact with South Koreans has influenced them and if they subvert their fellow citizens in the mines and rural areas.
Excerpt: “Kaesong residents are reportedly critical of the party’s simultaneously coercive and conciliatory approach to the issue. The source quoted one as saying that “It is worrisome and confusing that the authorities are forcing [people in Kaesong] to move according to [the Party’s whims], giving them only the choice between mining and farming.”
6. Moon urges North Korea to return to negotiation table
The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · May 10, 2021
We all want north Korea to return to the negotiating table. But Kim hopes we want it more than him and that we are willing to make concessions to him for his promise to return. It would be a mistake to make any premature concessions because it would only confirm to him that his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy is successful. This will cause him to double down and not come to the table as a responsible member of the international community.
7. Moon Marks 4th Year in Office
And last year.
8. Critics say Moon's special address far from public sentiment
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · May 10, 2021
Like many other politicians he appears to be only speaking to his base.
9. Defector activist grilled by police over anti-N.K. leafleting
en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · May 10, 2021
It will be interesting to see how President Biden handles this issue at the Biden-Moon summit.
10. N.K. paper highlights nationwide support for farming amid rice-planting season
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 10, 2021
Will "cheerleading" improve rice planting this year?
Excerpts: “North Korea is known for chronic food shortages and the scarcity appears to be getting worse due to the fallout of last year's flooding and the prolonged border controls put in place to ward off the global coronavirus pandemic.
South Korea's unification ministry handling inter-Korean affairs earlier estimated that the North could be faced with a food shortage of around 1 million tons this year.
11. Russia, China are cozying up to North Korea
koreanjoongangdaily · by Jeong Yong-Soo and Sarah Kim
If we had six party talks it might be more likely three against three or even four against two depending on how one of the six parties leans.
12. Bringing Korea Back into the Fold
english.chosun.com · May 10, 2021
A good question: Can President Biden bring President Moon back into the fold? Based on President Moon's recent speech I think not. This is going to be an innocent summit,
Excerpts: “The Biden administration has not been standing idly by, of course. It has been hard at work reconstituting the alliance after the Trump years, starting with the 2+2 meetings in March with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meeting with their counterparts. On this occasion, Blinken also signed a deal on the upkeep of the U.S. Forces Korea, ending a protracted deadlock over cost-sharing. Shortly thereafter, the national security advisers of Japan and South Korea came to Annapolis to meet with Jake Sullivan and Kurt Campbell to re-establish executive-branch coordination and prepare for a potential summit-level meeting of the three allies. Behind all of these events sits a large volume of calls, messages, and in-person meetings to move the policy process forward. For the start of a new administration in Washington, this is a tremendous amount of activity in a short period and reflects the priority the Biden administration places on re-establishing trilateralism as a core element in Asia.
The purpose of these efforts is to bolster policy positions with regard to North Korea and China. But arguably another important objective of reconciling Japan-South Korea relations is to bring South Korea back into the fold of diplomacy with the major democracies in Asia. There has been a quiet but discernible trend developing over the past few years where South Korea was growing increasingly isolated.
13. Biden in the Asia Pacific
The Korea Times · by Deauwand Myers · May 10, 2021
Excerpts: “Now that President Moon Jae-in is near the end of his tenure, his administration still faces the challenges of an ascendant China and an aggressive North Korea.
Being the strongest ally to Korea, the United States' role in dealing with both countries is paramount, and oddly, we still don't know how President Joe Biden will deal with North Korea.
Biden has made it pretty clear how he feels about the Chinese government. Biden has already taken executive actions to change and secure supply lines and enhance security for sensitive and advanced technologies originating from the United States.
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But President Biden's foreign policy is not xenophobic, pro-totalitarian, and seeks multilateral consensus, from rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change to strengthening the United Nations and NATO, the polar of opposite of former President Donald Trump. This means his administration will seek cooperation on dealing with North Korea from China, and dealing with China from Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
14. Seoul Officials on Long 'Study' Jaunts to U.S., U.K
english.chosun.com · May 10, 2021
Interesting critique: “Of those who went to the U.S. and the U.K., most followed a well-beaten path around the backwaters, where they could afford to bring their whole families. Twenty went to Oregon, eight to Texas, six to Missouri, and five to Georgia.
Officials did usually submit some kind of report on return, but they were often thin gruel. The 19 who went to Portland, Oregon mostly reported about transport or climate policies in the city.
"Many went to Oregon because the University of Portland has been designated as a policy training institution under an agreement," a city official said.
But very few went to population or technology hubs that are more obviously comparable to Seoul like Silicon Valley, or New York and Washington, where major organizations and international agencies are concentrated.”
15. How to deal with a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un
CNN · by David A. Andelman
Unfortunately Kim will not be a responsible member of the international community or of the nuclear powers. Trying to allow him the opportunity to be a responsible nuclear power will only cause him to continue his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy because we will have proved it works for him.
Excerpts: “The essence of any such plan must lie in the United States finding a way to persuade the North to join the global nuclear non-proliferation club. Implicit would be the acceptance that it already has a weapon. In turn the North will need to make its weapons and their security clearly visible and open to inspection.
China has every incentive to go along with such a plan and see that North Korea respects its spirit and letter. Biden must persuade Xi Jinping to embrace this in his dealings with Kim. At the same time Kim, as well as Xi, should understand that if North Korea launches a nuclear weapon at any foreign power, the United States is capable not only of a targeted nuclear attack on the capital of Pyongyang, but of turning the entirety of North Korea into a radioactive glass bowl.
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Still, the Biden administration does not seem to have many other, workable alternatives than to find a pathway for Kim to be lured or coerced back into the process -- whether by carrots or the stick of real, enforceable sanctions, especially enlisting China into an enforcement that is any more than simply lip-service. One of America's leading negotiators with the North, Evans J. R. Revere, told me that the US "must squeeze the North Koreans from every possible angle (so that) every morning when Kim Jong Un gets up, he needs to wonder whether (he) will make it through the end of the day." Revere paused then added, "I am convinced he is a rational actor."
Biden and his negotiators must find some way to persuade Kim they understand his needs, but that he must understand how incumbent it is for him to come to the table as a responsible member of the community of nations and of nuclear powers. That is the best assurance of North Korea's long-term survival, and his own.
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"Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear."
- George Addair
“We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty”
― John F. Kennedy
William Casey on the OSS: “You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed …” “ … mostly to cover somebody's rear end. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS."
- OSS veteran and DCIA William Casey