News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. N. Korea appears focused on internal affairs: defense minister
2. From mediator to negotiator (South Korea)
3. Kim Jong-un: apparent weight loss prompts speculation over North Korean leader’s health
4. Kim said to unveil ‘tangible change’ plan for North Korea economy
5. Proposal to shift "general markets" to "specialized markets" finds little support among N. Korean leaders
6. US dollar and Chinese reminbi plummet against North Korean won once again
7. North Korea urges citizens to 'put national interest first' in latest economic push
8. S. Korea continues attempts to call N.K. every day through Panmunjom hotline to no avail: official
9. N.K. paper calls for scientific development conducive to actual growth, production
10. S. Korea open to anything but three-way summit with U.S., Japan not planned: diplomat
11. U.S. lowers travel advisory for S. Korea to lowest Level 1
12. [ANALYSIS] In 6G, U.S. wants Korea as teammate against China
13. Missile Sovereignty: Another Reason for America to Reduce its Footprint in Korea
14. We Condemn Abolishing the National Security Act, which Guarantees Continuous North Korean Espionage Activities Harmful to the Free Republic of Korea
1. N. Korea appears focused on internal affairs: defense minister
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 9, 2021
I think the Defense Minister is probably correct. It is what the indicators appear to show. However, I would offer two notes of caution.
One if the focus is internal we need to observe for the indicators of international instability: first of the governing functions, the regime/party's ability to maintain governance over the entire territory of the north. This is combined with the coherency and support of the military for the regime. We have. seen reports of the measures being taken to try to get the military vaccinated. If the military suffers from a loss of coherency (a break down of the three chains of control (military, political, and security) then we may see signs of instability (and worse). The second caution is that when faced with internal threat the regime may choose to "externalize" them and create external threats to distract from the internal ones.
These two charts that Bob Collins and I developed in the 1990s to try to illustrate the complex problems in north Korea. I think they may still be useful in trying to understand the situation and what could happen in 2021 and beyond (but I am not making a prediction on timing but I will predict if any of these scenarios emerge it will be catastrophic for the ROK/US alliance and the region and it will have global effects).
2. From mediator to negotiator (South Korea)
The Korea Times · by Park Jung-won · June 8, 2021
I hope we have figured out that there is no mediator role for the Korea problem, certainly not for South Korea. It needs to be a negotiator. Trying to take on the mediator role has been a boon for the regime's political warfare strategy.
Important advice for South Korea from Dr. Park: “The raison detre of any democratic state lies in the protection of lives, freedom and property for its people, the absence of which delegitimizes its existence. The Moon administration should resist any temptation to create another political stunt with North Korea in the name of "peace." Given its tough neighborhood, it is understandable that South Korea has been tiptoeing around the two superpowers, the U.S. and China. South Korea's troubled modern history has made "international politics" a subject that its citizens follow compulsively.
However, an excessively submissive posture toward Kim's North Korean regime which plays down South Korea's identity, as symbolized by liberal democracy, human rights and the rule of law, will no longer be convincing in the eyes of the proud South Korean people. To advance his country's interests, it is time for Moon to shed the delusion of playing the role of mediator and adopt that of a negotiator.
3. Kim Jong-un: apparent weight loss prompts speculation over North Korean leader’s health
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · June 9, 2021
Perhaps he went on a Korean people's diet.
Of course he may have just obtained a larger watch band. Or someone in the Propaganda and Agitation Department discovered photoshop and they are learning how to use it.
4. Kim said to unveil ‘tangible change’ plan for North Korea economy
Will there be tangible (and positive) results?
Excerpts: “Kim’s plans were not specified but were described as intending to bring “tangible change” to stabilising the economy and people’s living conditions.
The North Korean economy has been crippled by decades of mismanagement, United States-led sanctions over Kim’s nuclear weapons programme and the pandemic. South Korean officials say there are no signs North Korea is easing the border controls it imposed at the start of the pandemic or importing more industrial and agricultural materials to boost production.
The Workers’ Party last held a plenary meeting of Central Committee members in February, when Kim ripped into state economic agencies for their “passive and self-protecting tendencies” in setting their annual goals.
5. Proposal to shift "general markets" to "specialized markets" finds little support among N. Korean leaders
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · June 9, 2021
This is why authoritarian leaders cannot obtain creative ideas from their bureaucracies. You are at risk if your idea is not deemed worthy.
6. US dollar and Chinese reminbi plummet against North Korean won once again
dailynk.com · June 9, 2021
But I think those who have dollars and RMB (and euros) do not want to convert them to north Korean won. They want to use foreign currency in place of north Korean currency.
7. North Korea urges citizens to 'put national interest first' in latest economic push
UPI · by Elizabeth Shim
Ideology solves all north Korean problems (sure!)
8. S. Korea continues attempts to call N.K. every day through Panmunjom hotline to no avail: official
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 9, 2021
nK pays hard to get to South's unrequited love.
Seriously though, the north's failure to answer the phone is not new. They have gone for long periods of time over the years without answering the phone.
9. N.K. paper calls for scientific development conducive to actual growth, production
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 9, 2021
Unfortunately, science in north Korea is built on a foundation of juche and juche trumps all "facts."
10. S. Korea open to anything but three-way summit with U.S., Japan not planned: diplomat
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 9, 2021
But you do not want to appear as a third wheel.
Excerpts: “Sullivan, however, noted a possibility "for virtually anything," citing what he called small spaces of the venue for the G7 summit in Britain's Cornwall.
"I understand we are not currently pushing for one (three-way summit)," Choi said when asked.
"However, I believe there can be many possibilities since the venue for the upcoming G7 summit is said to be not greater than previous G7 meetings or other multilateral forums in terms of space," he added.
South Korea is not a G7 member, but has been invited to this year's meeting as a guest, along with Australia, India and South Africa.
11. U.S. lowers travel advisory for S. Korea to lowest Level 1
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 9, 2021
Good news.
Today's "normal precaution" includes personal defensive measures against COVID.
12. [ANALYSIS] In 6G, U.S. wants Korea as teammate against China
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Kyung-Min and Park Eun-Jee · June 8, 2021
13. Missile Sovereignty: Another Reason for America to Reduce its Footprint in Korea
19fortyfive.com · by Willis Krumholz · June 8, 2021
I certainly hope the administration did not have this in mind when terminating the missile guidelines. This is a dangerous proposal and one that is based on a lack of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and what actually deters the north
14. We Condemn Abolishing the National Security Act, which Guarantees Continuous North Korean Espionage Activities Harmful to the Free Republic of Korea
East Asia Research · June 3, 2021
We must never forget the north’s subversion strategy and its capabilities for executing it. Of course the question is how effective is the National Security Act at countering their activities.
North Korean Agencies
Responsible for Subversion (UW, SO and CI/Security)
North Korean intelligence and security services collect political, military, economic, and technical information through open sources, human intelligence, cyber intrusions, and signals intelligence capabilities. North Korea's primary intelligence collection targets remain the ROK, the United States, and Japan. They likely operate anywhere North Korea has a diplomatic or sizable economic overseas presence.
- The Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB) is North Korea's primary foreign intelligence service, responsible for collection and clandestine operations. The RGB comprises six bureaus with compartmented functions, including operations, reconnaissance, technology and cyber capabilities, overseas intelligence, inter-Korean talks, and service support.
- The Ministry of State Security (MSS) is North Korea's primary counterintelligence service and is an autonomous agency of the North Korean Government reporting directly to Kim Jong Un. The MSS is responsible for operating North Korean prison camps, investigating cases of domestic espionage, repatriating defectors, and conducting overseas counterespionage activities in North Korea's foreign missions.
- The United Front Department (UFD) overtly attempts to establish pro-North Korean groups in the ROK, such as the Korean Asia-Pacific Committee and the Ethnic Reconciliation Council. The UFD is also the primary department involved in managing inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea's policy toward the ROK.
- The 225th Bureau is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution.
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“Let us immediately establish the point. Our enemies know full well that news is an important weapon in modern warfare and they are unceasingly applying their knowledge as they wages total war. How they do so directly affects every one of us.”
- Matthew Gordon, News is a Weapon
“Cyber warfare is as much about psychological strategy as technical prowess.”
- James Scott, Senior Fellow, Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology
A meme (rhymes with dream) is a unit of information (a catchphrase, a concept, a tune, a notion of fashion, philosophy or politics) that leaps from brain to brain. Memes compete with one another for replication, and are passed down through a population much the same way genes pass through a species. Potent memes can change minds, alter behavior, catalyze collective mindshifts and transform cultures. Which is why meme warfare has become the geopolitical battle of our information age. Whoever has the memes has the power.
- Kalle Lasn