News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Saudi Operatives Who Killed Khashoggi Received Paramilitary Training in U.S.
2. FDD | Fixing Shortcomings in the Senate’s Endless Frontier Legislation
3. A Credible Deterrent to Chinese Cyber Attacks
4. China Has Stopped Biding Its Time
5. Biden blew a chance for a win in his meeting with Putin
6. America’s Syrian Allies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine
7. SECDEF backs change in military sex assault prosecution
8. The case for a defense budget that focuses more on China, less on climate change
9. Lessons from the Korean War: The US Will Not Be Able to Abandon Taiwan
10. Joe Biden Has Abandoned Afghanistan. No Summit Can Change That.
11. Joint Chiefs warn against bill aimed at revamping military justice system
12. Biden rounds out his Pentagon team with Russia expert Celeste Wallander
13. Afghan Says He Spied for CIA. Now That He Wants to Flee to U.S., He Can’t Prove It.
14. China has declared information warfare against America — Biden must respond vigorously
15. The Military Has a Watchdog for Stopping Extremism. Now, It Wants Teeth -- and Independence
16. Episode 49: Armstrong on the Smith-Mundt Act
17. Study finds sex assault risk in Army highest at Fort Hood
18. 7,000 troops died in the Post-9/11 wars. A staggering 30,000 died by suicide
19. War Memorials, Monuments . . . and Deterrence?
20. Destroyer Makes Sixth Taiwan Strait Transit During Biden Administration
21. U.S. Military Training Document Says Socialists Represent “Terrorist” Ideology
22. Apple Daily, Pro-Democracy Newspaper in Hong Kong, Says It Will Close
23. Retiring U.S. Army Special Forces colonel appointed as VMI commandant
1. Saudi Operatives Who Killed Khashoggi Received Paramilitary Training in U.S.
The New York Times · by Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, and Michael LaForgia · June 22, 2021
Training foreign military and security personnel is big business for some contractors. I expect there will be new regulations and directives for oversight and vetting for foreign personnel in reaction to this.
2. FDD | Fixing Shortcomings in the Senate’s Endless Frontier Legislation
fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · June 22, 2021
Excerpt: “Having passed in the Senate, USICA now moves to the House, where its fate is unclear. In drafting their own bill, House legislators would be wise to reassess proposed NSF investments, to ensure taxpayer dollars are spent advancing cutting-edge science, in keeping with China’s planned investments in strategic sectors. The House should also revisit the security-related gaps in USICA’s current language, with the goal of strengthening transparency and accountability surrounding U.S. research funding and intellectual property. Ignoring these critical issues sets a troubling precedent and will do little to enhance America’s long-term comparative advantage over Beijing – sustained economic performance based on genuine competition.
3. A Credible Deterrent to Chinese Cyber Attacks
usni.org · by Norman Friedman · June 22, 2021
Excerpt: “Can the United States actually hack into the Chinese social computer system? Any answer must be very secret. But for a deterrent to work, its target must have at least a sense of vulnerability. It is possible that merely discussing this seriously will impact the Chinese government.
4. China Has Stopped Biding Its Time
WSJ · by William A. Galston
Excerpts: “A lesson of the past few years is that there is little the U.S. can do to change China’s domestic policy. We cannot persuade or force its leaders to abandon their drive for technological and military superiority, to decrease the state’s role in the economy or to respect human rights. We must focus—as a country and as the leader of democratic alliances—on what we can do to strengthen ourselves.
Recent bipartisan moves in the House and Senate to increase investment in important technologies are a promising start. It remains to be seen whether we can agree on the investments and strategic decisions that an effective military response to the Chinese challenge will require—and whether we can restore a sense of common purpose across partisan lines without which such a response cannot be sustained.
5. Biden blew a chance for a win in his meeting with Putin
washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May
Excerpts: “This brings us back to our chronic inability to understand Russian rulers. President Obama thought America’s quarrel with Mr. Putin could be sorted out by pressing a toy button labeled “reset” (with the word misspelled in Russian). He was mistaken.
President Trump thought flattery would turn Mr. Putin into his good buddy. It didn’t.
Mr. Biden believes Mr. Putin is eager to “make progress on our shared goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic sphere” and avoid “a new Cold War.” C’mon, man, that’s malarkey!
Here’s the deal: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is not “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” He’s a former KGB colonel with czarist appetites and Stalinist ambitions. Until and unless President Biden gets that, he can’t begin to shape a successful policy toward Russia and its ruler.
6. America’s Syrian Allies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine
Foreign Policy · by David Adesnik and Seth J. Frantzman · June 22, 2021
Excerpts: “Although honoring the United States’ debt to its Syrian allies has value of its own, the vaccination campaign would also demonstrate to people across the Middle East the tangible value of working with the United States rather than depending on Russia or Iran. A successful vaccination effort in northeast Syria would also resonate globally as the United States builds a coalition to pressure China for greater transparency about the pandemic’s origins while contesting Beijing’s influence within the WHO. An important precedent for a vaccination campaign in northeast Syria is the White House’s decision to send 2,500,000 doses to Taiwan, which is facing a vaccine blockade by China. After visiting Taiwan earlier this month, U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth commented: “How do you decide to choke off another nation in a pandemic like that? It’s inhumane.” Assad is choking off northeast Syria in precisely the same manner.
Northwest Syria—the other region of the country that remains outside of Assad’s control—may become the next victim if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to veto the U.N. Security Council’s re-authorization of aid shipments to the region via the Turkish border. A trickle of COVAX aid is now arriving in northwest Syria, but since the initiative is under the auspices of the U.N., a Russian veto next month would shut it down. In that event, the United States should ask its European partners to lead a vaccination campaign in the northwest to complement a prospective U.S. campaign in the northeast.
The United States spends billions of dollars each year to contain the spread of HIV/AIDS worldwide. This effort, known as the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, has saved millions of lives and built deep reservoirs of goodwill toward the United States. The George W. Bush administration launched the program and quickly garnered solid bipartisan support. Biden’s commitment to COVAX deserves similar support, but he should recognize the program falls far short in its ability to reach places like northeast Syria. Although its caliphate no longer exists, the Islamic State has transitioned to guerrilla operations, which the SDF continues to fight with U.S. support. The United States still needs its allies in the region—and those allies need vaccines.
7. SECDEF backs change in military sex assault prosecution
militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · June 22, 2021
Excerpts: “The independent review panel on Monday presented Austin with an expansive set of recommendations to combat sexual assault in the military, including prevention, command climate, victim care and support.
“Generally they appear strong and well-grounded,” Austin said in his statement. “I have directed my staff to do a detailed assessment and implementation plan for my review and approval.”
Austin said he will present his recommendations to President Joe Biden in the coming days. But he also noted that the changes will require additional personnel, funding and authorities. The ones that can be done under existing authority will be give priority, he said, and other changes may take more time and will need help from Congress.
“As I made clear on my first full day in office, this is a leadership issue. And we will lead,” he said. “Our people depend upon it. They deserve nothing less.”
8. The case for a defense budget that focuses more on China, less on climate change
Defense News · by Rep. Mike Rogers and Rep. Ken Calvert · June 22, 2021
Excerpts: “The bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission was very clear: to fully implement the National Defense Strategy, overcome threats from China and other adversaries, and recover from austere budgets in the Obama years, we need to grow our defense spending by three to five percent above inflation from 2022-2025. This year’s defense budget should be above the rate of inflation and entirely focused on deterring the threats from near peer adversaries. Instead, this budget, should it pass in its current form, would cede our military superiority to China and return us to a hollow force, unable to respond to events around the world, whether it’s conflict or humanitarian missions.
While disappointing, the budget numbers are no surprise. President Biden has an impeccable track record of foreign policy failures over the past 40 years. He was the architect of the 2011 troop withdrawal in Iraq, which created the power vacuum that allowed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria to overtake 40 percent of Iraq. The rise of ISIS required us to return to Iraq, a mistake we fear he is likely repeating in Afghanistan. His precipitous exit from Afghanistan with no plan to conduct counter terrorism operations, secure our diplomatic corps, and protect the 17,000 Afghan interpreters that helped us over the last two decades is setting the stage for another national security crisis.
9. Lessons from the Korean War: The US Will Not Be Able to Abandon Taiwan
Global Taiwan · by Ben Lowsen
Conclusion: “The main point: It is tempting for the US to back away from potentially difficult commitments like defending Taiwan, but as we learned in the Korean War, the US will have little choice if China attacks. It should therefore make itself as ready as possible.
10. Joe Biden Has Abandoned Afghanistan. No Summit Can Change That.
19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · June 22, 2021
Wow. Michael Rubin pulls no punches.
11. Joint Chiefs warn against bill aimed at revamping military justice system
Axios · by Kierra Frazier
12. Biden rounds out his Pentagon team with Russia expert Celeste Wallander
Axios · by Hans Nichols
13. Afghan Says He Spied for CIA. Now That He Wants to Flee to U.S., He Can’t Prove It.
WSJ · by Jessica Donati, Ehsanullah Amiri and Michelle Hackman · June 22, 2021
Perhaps that is because the CIA's security procedures to protect its recruited agents are effective. There should be no way to prove it using open source information. A terrible Catch 22 for this person.
14. China has declared information warfare against America — Biden must respond vigorously
The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · June 22, 2021
Excerpts: “Now that many in the West have had their eyes opened to the multidimensional China threat, Beijing has created the very “ganging up against China” that it long feared. So its answer is to double down on its aggressive policies and rhetoric and charge that it is only responding to others’ assaults. As Lu succinctly put it, “It is them who are the real aggressors and not us. We never actively attack or provoke others. What we do is justified defence to safeguard our own interests.” Such paranoia or deceit is as much in the CCP’s DNA as it was in Nazi Germany’s and the Soviet Union’s.
Lu did utter one incontrovertible reality — yet one too few in the West seem to recognize — when he said, “The public opinion war is a strength of the West but a weakness for us.” He was right, but not for the reason he offered: “We need to have long-term planning, just like Chairman Mao talked about the protracted war,” and more diplomats, media workers and academics to carry out the project.
The West has an inherent advantage because it is easier and more persuasive to tell the truth. Beijing’s having more people tell lies more efficiently will not succeed in this information age — unless the West is as derelict as it has been in the past in telling its story, warts and all, and exposing the absolute evil of the communist dictatorship.
Lu said, “Our style has changed and you need to get used to it.” Let the West’s own information war begin in earnest. It beats the shooting kind.
15. The Military Has a Watchdog for Stopping Extremism. Now, It Wants Teeth -- and Independence
military.com · by Stephen Losey · June 22, 2021
We had better be careful.
16. Episode 49: Armstrong on the Smith-Mundt Act
Information Professionals Podcast-Cognitive Crucible
If you want to understand the real history and implications of Smith-Mundt, I recommend you listen to Matt Armstrong here.
17. Study finds sex assault risk in Army highest at Fort Hood
expressnews.com · by Sig Christenson · June 21, 2021
My comments in the article.
My complete comments on reading the RAND report here:
“I have to say that this is of course troubling and the findings are really interesting. However, I am not sufficiently well versed in data analysis to judge the efficacy of the report though I have no basis on which to dispute anything. My sense is that the way data is reported (or more importantly not reported) we probably still do not have anywhere near the big picture but we certainly have enough to see that we still face terrible problems in the areas of sexual harassment and sexual assault.
I really hate to seem flippant but the most important finding in this report is about leadership. I know it is cliché to say that this is a leadership problem but that is what the data seems to point to:
"Finally, our exploration of the group characteristics associated with higher and lower risk showed that where the unit and leadership climate is better, soldiers face lower sexual assault risk and lower sexual harassment risk. This evidence can be used to design interventions to improve workplace climate, especially for those clusters of soldiers where risk is higher than expected and climate ratings are poor."
This is the final conclusion on page 70. In my opinion, it is leadership that will solve or more practically reduce this problem because there is not total prevention of such horrendous acts by what have to be considered deranged people or people with no moral compass and no respect for human dignity. Good leadership is the best way to prevent harassment and assault but good leadership is required to deal with it professionally and correctly when it happens. We cannot write this off as inevitable because it cannot be totally prevented but when it happens we have to deal with it and reinforce and redouble our leadership efforts.
I wish I had some deeper insights for you but there is nothing in this report that jumps out at me that describes the silver bullet that will prevent or reduce this scourge. I wish I could find something. But in the end this is a leadership issue and leaders have to be held responsible and accountable. But that does not mean leaders have to be relieved with every instance of harassment and assault. Patterns may require this and how leaders handle the situation when harassment and assaults occur must be judged. Knee jerk responses or one size fits all responses are not helpful. It is leadership up and down the chain of command that must address this.
18. 7,000 troops died in the Post-9/11 wars. A staggering 30,000 died by suicide
taskandpurpose.com · by David Roza · June 22, 2021
Staggering is right. What a tragedy.
Now if I am sitting in Russia or China and I am assessing this I might ask myself how I could contribute to this? Can I use social media to make this problem worse? Can I exploit this problem to influence national leadership decision making? Can I use this problem to drive the public to become dissatisfied with the national leadership?
Of is the fact that so few citizens actually serve in the military that this does not generate public sentiment against decision makers who send our sons and daughters to war? Or do I just follow Napoleon and observe that one should not interrupt his enemy when he is making a mistake?
19. War Memorials, Monuments . . . and Deterrence?
news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · June 22, 2021
An interesting perspective.
Excerpts: “So how should an effective war memorial-deterrent signal be deployed in practice? Certainly new war memorials will be dedicated and rededicated in the future in both the United States and around the world. Those memorials should be designed and dedicated in ways that honor sacrifice, dignify survivors, and celebrate willingness to fight for democratic values. It may be appropriate for policymakers to use domestic war memorial dedications as venues to announce new policies to counter emerging threats from great power competitors. It may even be appropriate for policymakers to invest time and resources into the war memorial events of our allies and partners to signal commitments to extended deterrence or mutual defense agreements.
Deeds, not words, make the difference. Signaling credible commitment to deter an adversary requires that the sender demonstrate the capability and will to impose costs—even if the sender incurs some amount of cost themselves. Policymakers can spend time and relatively little money on war memorials to simultaneously signal willingness to incur additional costs and link the current threat to past conflict outcomes. Deliberate planning is needed to manage the inherent risks of collateral damage from offending unintended audiences. If war memorials and monuments can serve their principal purpose of honoring past sacrifice and also deter conflicts of the future by signaling credible commitment, then integrating them into deterrent messaging is the strategically sound and right thing to do.
21. U.S. Military Training Document Says Socialists Represent “Terrorist” Ideology
The Intercept · by Ken Klippenstein · June 22, 2021
22. Apple Daily, Pro-Democracy Newspaper in Hong Kong, Says It Will Close
The New York Times · by Tiffany May and Austin Ramzy· June 23, 2021
I am reminded of this statement in an OpEd in the Daily NK By Min Xin Pei.
That is perhaps why the Singapore model has lost its luster in the Xi era, whereas the North Korean model – totalitarian political repression, a cult of the supreme leader, and juche (economic self-reliance) – has grown more appealing. True, China has not yet become a giant North Korea, but a number of trends over the last eight years have moved the country in that direction.
23. Retiring U.S. Army Special Forces colonel appointed as VMI commandant
wfxrtv.com · by Colleen Guerry · June 22, 2021
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"BRAC originated in the 1960s under President Kennedy as the Department of Defense (DOD) had to realign its base structure after World War II and the Korean War. At that time, the DOD was able to close bases without congressional interference, and 60 bases were closed in the 1960s."
- Sam Brownback
"Since the Korean War, U.S. and South Korea have established an enduring friendship with shared interests, such as denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, combating aggression abroad and developing our economies."
-Charles B. Rangel
"Wars of necessity are essentially unavoidable. They involve the most important national interests, a lack of promising alternatives to the use of force, and a certain and considerable price to be paid if the status quo is allowed to stand. Examples include World War II and the Korean War.”
- Richard N. Haass