News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat
2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official
3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram
4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape
5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state
6. Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz
7. Getting Out of Iran's Way
8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters
9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong
10. Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare
11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships
12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion
13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan
14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China
15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia
16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory
17. Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree
SPECIAL: FDD Foreign Policy Tracker
Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker · FDD Staff · June 29, 2021
Access the tracker and each subject area at this link.
1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat
sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap · June 28, 2021
We can always count on Maj Gen Dunlap for sound legal and strategic analysis. He always tackles the tough and critical issues.
2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official
Daily Mail · by Melissa Koenig · June 28, 2021
First for all my Special Forces brothers note the Marine is the son-in-law of COL Jack Jensen. He reported on Facebook that his son-in-law will be okay and was not sure why the Daily Mail chose to make this about him as well as his daughter and son-in-law.
Second, this article delves into crime statistics as well as the details of the shooting.
3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram
militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · June 29, 2021
One of many concerns: “Roggio says the status of the prison is a “major concern,” noting that many of its prisoners are known Taliban leaders or members of militant groups, including al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. It’s believed about 7,000 prisoners are still in the prison.
“If the base falls and the prison is overrun, these detainees can bolster the ranks of these terror groups,” Roggio said.
4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape
armytimes.com · by Yuri Kageyama · June 29, 2021
This is why the Japanese courts have such a high conviction rate. They do not go to trial until the defendant is willing to apologize and show remorse. One of our NCOs spent about 20 days in a Japanese prison after he was apprehended drunk and damaging a local police chief's car (with the chief's daughter and boyfriend in the car while it happened about 4am - it took 3 Marine MPs and a handful of Japanese policemen to subdue him). Despite us making restitution and apologies for his actions and he himself apologizing he spent the maximum time in jail because as the Japanese told us there was a recently leaked email in which a senior US military officer called the Okinawans "wimps and nuts" so he was being held as a "political pawn." When he was released the NCO told me that he was glad he had been through SERE training because he experienced many similar techniques.
5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 29, 2021
And China wants to export these capabilities.
6. Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz
thediplomat.com · by Sarah Cook · June 29, 2021
Excerpts: “But these traditional exercises have been supplemented with new elements that seem aimed at saturating the public consciousness and people’s conversations, while reinforcing Xi’s position as the country’s paramount leader. A massive public education campaign focused on CCP history was launched in February. It included the release of 80 national propaganda slogans – including several with Xi at the center – a scale that the China Media Project described as “unprecedented in the reform era.”
Particular energy has been devoted to ensuring that the younger generations “inherit red genes.” For example, propaganda officials have launched 200 social media accounts designed to influence university students, and the party has developed various interactive educational materials like web portals, televised knowledge competitions, and animated shorts. A new history academy founded in 2019 has been posting punchy updates to Chinese social media platforms and using online marketing tactics alongside more staid academic-style publications. A hip-hop brand published a rap video in which 100 artists, including several high-profile performers, joined forces to tout the CCP’s accomplishments.
By infusing reminders of the CCP’s dominance into practically every facet of Chinese society and daily life, from history and culture to popular entertainment, the regime is advancing one of the central goals of these campaigns: to reinforce the perception that China as a nation is indistinguishable from the Chinese Communist Party.
7. Getting Out of Iran's Way
thedispatch.com · by Bradley Bowman
Excerpts: “The selection of Raisi—an ultra-hardline cleric responsible for the mass execution of dissidents—provides a timely reminder as to the nature of the regime in Tehran, the threat it represents, and the continued requirement for forward-positioned U.S. forces in the Middle East.
Raisi’s revolutionary resume stands out due to his participation in a four-person “death commission” that oversaw the execution of an estimated 5,000 political prisoners in the late 1980s. And the passage of time has apparently not encouraged any contrition from Raisi. During his first post-election press conference on Monday, Raisi was asked about his role in the mass murders. “I have always defended people’s rights,” he responded. “Human rights have been a pivotal point for me.”
That retort likely pleased Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Iran’s “most important voter,” Khamenei sees elections as a way to squeeze the already narrow political spectrum in the country. A reported 592 candidates registered for the election, but only seven were approved to run by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for public office and is loyal to Khamenei. Given his age, 82, Khamenei was eager to use the election to cement the hardline domination of Iran’s institutions and keep the country on its revolutionary trajectory even after his death.
...
Accordingly, as Biden implements his military withdrawal from Afghanistan, conditions there are unsurprisingly and tragically deteriorating quickly. As we saw in Iraq, don’t be surprised if American forces are forced to return to Afghanistan soon—perhaps even in a matter of months.
If the Biden administration brings a similar approach to the Islamic Republic of Iran and U.S. military posture in the Middle East more generally, don’t expect a better result. Ignoring the nature and objectives of the adversary, neglecting continued threats to core American interests in the Middle East, and failing to maintain a well-designed forward-based military posture there will simply leave Tehran increasingly unchecked as it sows terrorism around the region and targets Americans, Arabs, and Israelis.
Given the Islamic Republic of Iran’s consistent track record over the last four decades, the burden of proof clearly rests on anyone who suggests we will see a dramatic departure in the regime’s oppression of the Iranian people, instinctual hostility to America, and systematic support for terrorism.
If you doubt that argument, simply look at who the regime just picked as its president and what he said last week.
8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters
The Hill · by Maggie Miller · June 28, 2021
Excerpts: “The report calls on Congress to approve a national breach notification law to force companies to require companies hit by a cyberattack, regardless of whether customer data was impacted, to report the breach.
Lawmakers are looking at doing just that. A draft bill from Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.), Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) includes language requiring federal agencies, federal contractors, and owners and operators of critical infrastructure to report cybersecurity incidents within 24 hours to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Rubio told The Hill last week that the bill would likely be formally introduced “probably the first week” when the Senate returns from the July 4 recess.
9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong
The New York Times · by Alexandra Stevenson · June 29, 2021
Authoritarian rule. China wants to export it. My summary of the Chinese strategy: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
10. Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare
militarystrategymagazine.com · by Daniel Riggs · June 28, 2021
An interesting article that really focuses on the human domain to include discussion of the Asymmetric Warfare Group.
It reminds me that DOD seems to be jettisoning many organizations and projects that contribute to understanding the human domain which I would argue is most important within great power competition. We have disbanded the Asymmetric Warfare Group. We have ended funding for the University of Foreign and Cultural Studies at Fort Leavenworth. This includes ending the renowned Red Team Leaders Course (I have heard there is talk within the that the course can be replaced by a contract with the McChrystal Group). USASOC has cut funding for the Assessing Revolutionary and Insurgent Strategies project. Collectively this indicates a declining focus on the human domain.
11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships
mwi.usma.edu · by Marshall McGurk · June 29, 2021
More perspective on the human domain. We must build, sustain, and advance our relationships with friends, partners, and allies.
My personal experience with IMET in 1985 is illustrative. I met Captain Alexander Yano from the Philippines there. We became friends. His mentor was then Captain Joe Votel. Years later I met him in the Philippines when conducting Special Forces training and when we deployed to Mindanao in 2001 just after 9-11 for our our initial assessment (TCAV) he was waiting for us as we got off the rap ofhe MC-130 as he was Commander of Task Force Zamboanga. He would always ask me what Joe Votel was doing (at 9-11 he was commanding the 75th Ranger Regiment). When I returned later as the commander of the JSOTF he was the Army Chief and went on to become the Chief of the Philippine Armed Forces. Our relationship was very helpful in achieving our objectives.
Conclusion: “Without establishing personal, institutional, and programmatic relationships with strategic partners, the United States is at risk of continuing the costly boom-and-bust cycle of American investments in blood and treasure. Decision makers will be left without on-the-ground information from advisors and trainers. Even worse, without relationships in place, the United States will not be able to call upon friends or provide an agile response when crises or conflicts occur. The return on investment is worth it. To paraphrase SOF Truth #4, quality relationships cannot be created after emergencies occur. The best time to establish relationships with strategic partners and their military leaders was twenty years ago. The second-best time is now.
12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion
The commander has had an impressive career and is one of the few commanders who have the opportunity for a second battalion command. That has been traditionally limited to the Ranger Battalions for a second command.
Excerpt: “Sullivan is a graduate of the United States Military Academy and has served numerous operational deployments with the 82nd Airborne Division, 101st Airborne and Combined Joint Special Operations Task-Force Afghanistan. She has also completed the U.S. Army's School of Advanced Military Studies program, in addition to completing airborne and jumpmaster training.
13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan
The Washington Post · by Ishaan Tharoor · June 28, 2021
Excerpts: “But Biden’s decision to withdraw reflects a widespread strategic impatience with the U.S. mission. “We have provided the Afghan people the blood of thousands [of] our finest men and women, hundreds of billions of our citizens’ dollars, and nearly 20 years for the Afghan government to have gotten its house in order and forged a negotiated settlement with the insurgents,” wrote Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who deployed twice to Afghanistan. “They have squandered that opportunity.”
Afghans may counter that the price they have paid in blood is far steeper — and that heavy-handed U.S. military action has, on numerous occasions, added to the civilian toll. What is clear is that the United States is a party to cycles of conflict in the war-ravaged country that long predated 9/11 and will continue after the United States withdraws its main troop presence. The Biden administration will push for a negotiated peace between Ghani’s government and the Taliban, but diplomatic efforts remain stalled as the Taliban press their battlefield advantage. A diverse set of regional powers — including China, Pakistan, India and Russia — may all variously attempt to help broker some sort of reconciliation between the ultraconservative Taliban and the Afghan government.
14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China
You do not read something like this very often.
15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia
Foreign Policy · by James Crabtree · June 27, 2021
Obviously not a good sign.
Excerpts: “The region should matter in Washington. It contains two U.S. allies: the Philippines and Thailand. There are other major partners too, including Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Yet economic ties in all these countries have shifted toward China as of late. Closer diplomatic ties are likely to follow in many cases, absent concerted U.S. action. Few regional policymakers relish a possible future under China’s sway and mostly want to maintain a balance between the two superpowers—which means they want the United States to stay closely engaged in regional affairs. But it is for precisely this reason that Southeast Asia is so attuned to signs of distraction or muddled thinking in Washington.
Blinken’s technical snafu hardly helped. Beyond the show of sheer incompetence, the fact that Blinken was skipping the ASEAN meeting to head to Israel only acted as a reminder that U.S. commitments elsewhere distract attention from Asia. Despite more talk of a new focus on the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Defense Department also moved its only aircraft carrier in the western Pacific region last month back to support U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan, sending an equally confusing signal. Individual countries have similar stories, including Indonesia, the region’s largest economy. Its foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, recently headed to the United States for a United Nations meeting on Palestine. While there, she failed to secure a meeting with Blinken, causing embarrassment in Jakarta.
The first and most obvious problem: Washington lacks an economic agenda for the region.
16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory
popular.info · by Judd Legum
Obviously an extremely controversial and politically sensitive topic. But this article is a useful explainer.
17. Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree
The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · June 28, 2021
The subtitle says it all.
Conclusion (with which i concur): “But to maintain that flexibility, a liberal-democratic society absolutely requires that its citizens experience a liberal education, one that teaches students, scholars, readers, and voters to keep looking at books, history, society, and politics from different points of view. If one of our two great political parties no longer believes in this principle—and if some of our scholars don’t either—then how much longer can we expect our democracy to last?
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"Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, “I’m possible!”" - Audrey Hepburn
The ROK Army Special Warfare Command motto: 안 되면 되게 하라 (English: Make the Impossible Possible)
"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. all influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."
- Clausewitz