News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans
2. New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK
3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures
4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight
5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.
6. Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself
7. Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning
8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief
9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges
10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting
11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters
12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?
13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un
14. South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper
15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea
16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.
17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes
18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"
19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"
1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021
One of the many tragedies and atrocities of the Kim family regime. Just ask the many escapees who have suffered at the hands of the regime. And of course China is complicit in human rights abuses of Koreans. China could reduce trafficking by providing Koreans who cross the border with refugee status and giving them the necessary protection until they can travel to South Korea.
This is one of the many reasons why we need to take a human rights up front. It is important that the new Korea policy of the Biden administration will include human rights.
2. New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK
hrnk.org · June 30, 2021
The 120 page report can be downloaded here:
Excerpt: “According to author David Hawk, “this monograph carefully details the history of North Korea's interaction with the United Nations, particularly the changes in the DPRK's stance toward human rights following the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry Report, after which North Korea became much more tactically open and engaged regarding the human rights of its citizens.” Hawk further adds: “As endorsed by the General Assembly, the UN proffers a two-track approach to North Korea: accountability and engagement. Presently both approaches are stymied. But if conditions possibly improve, the steps that North Korea and its interlocuters -- governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental -- should take are clearly outlined by the UN processes detailed in this HRNK account.”
3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures
rfa.org · by Jieun Kim, Yongjae Mok and Soyoung Kim
But he accepts no responsibility himself. He exercises such central control over everything that there can be no one else to blame.
It is a significant decision to close schools for the remainder of the year. However, the regime may be using COVID as an excuse to employ even greater numbers of child laborers for regime "projects."
4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · July 1, 2021
My guess (and it is only a guess and not even an estimate or assessment) is that we are still a long way from Kim asking for or accepting outside help. Kim fears the Korean people in the north more than COVID and more than the US. I think he will milk the COVID situation to continue to crack down on (what he defines as) corruption, increase oppression of the wavering and hostile classes, and double down on centralized control of the economy, currency, internal movement, communications, and information.
Then again, he could be laying the groundwork to make a huge demand for outside assistance. It is possible that he might play on the heartstrings of the international community and try to manipulate conditions to get sanctions relief in the name of helping the Korean people. We should never forget that the reason the people are suffering is not sanctions but the deliberate policy decisions of Kim himself. Sanctions relief will not help the people who need help. If sanctions relief is provided we must expect Kim to renew his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.
5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.
The National Interest · by Laura Rockwood, Jaewoo Shin, and Matthew Frank · July 1,
Yes, that is probably correct. Not yet. Although I push hard that we must be observing for indicators, they will be hard to observe and decipher. But things could continue to look stable and then rapidly deteriorate if the conditions of regime collapse occur. Therefore, we must be ready.
Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"
Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145, http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467285_add_file_7.pdf)
Here are two graphics (that Bob Collins I developed in the 1990s and which I have shared before) that provide some possible instability, conflict, and collapse scenarios and the implosion-explosion paradox.
6. Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself
Al Jazeera English · by Frank Smith
Sanctions are not crippling. Kim Jong-un's policies are crippling.
7. Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning
The Economist · July 3, 2021
The Economist gets it. Why is no one else proving this kind of reporting? This succinct article explains the emergence from the Arduous March, the rise of the graymarkets to the growth of the moneyed class to the current crackdown on market activity using COVID as the excuse from the imposition of draconian population and resources control measures. Why? To ensure Kim remains in control and in power.
Excerpt: “In theory, the dire situation should provide an opening for re-engagement with the outside world. South Korea has repeatedly offered to send food aid and, more recently, vaccines. Sung Kim, America’s special envoy for North Korea, said during a visit to Seoul in June that he is willing to meet his counterpart “anywhere, anytime, without preconditions”. North Korea has publicly rebuffed all overtures. Mr Kim’s slightly less corpulent appearance suggests not so much a sense of crisis as that, as always, he is looking after himself.
8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 2, 2021
A very nice ceremony. Thank you to USFK PAO for streaming it live on social media so we could watch it virtually last evening.
9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021
I hope north and South can start zooming.
Excerpt: “Cha, however, added that South Korea is equipped to hold an inter-Korean virtual summit anytime as it has completed setting up a conference room specifically designed to hold negotiations with the North via a video system in April.”
10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021
We are starting to see how things are sorting out. But the most dangerous position to be in is the one people designate as number 2.
Excerpt: “The latest meeting further raises the possibility that Ri Pyong-chol, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party, has been dismissed.
Video footage aired earlier on Korean Central Television showed officials at the politburo meeting voting on personnel issues, with the exception of Ri and Pak Jong-chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.
Ri and Pak did not raise their hands up to vote, in an indication that the top two military officers have been dismissed.
So how is control of the military? Is Kim maintaining its support? Is the military and its three chains of control still coherent and intact?
11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters
Stars and Stripes · by Matthew M. Burke · July 1, 2021
The question I have is were these personnel vaccinated or are they part of the 20% still as yet unvaccinated?
Excerpts: “The command reported 10 new cases of the coronavirus respiratory disease on Wednesday evening. The new patients — nine service members and one family member — tested positive between Saturday and Tuesday, a statement said.
Four service members at Casey, one at Camp Carroll, and a dependent of a service member stationed at K-16 in Seoul tested positive after coming into close contact with positive individuals, the statement said.
One service member stationed at Humphreys, one at Casey and another at K-16 tested positive Monday and Tuesday after developing COVID-19 symptoms, according to the statement. Another service member assigned to Casey tested positive on Tuesday prior to returning to the United States.
USFK also announced in the statement that approximately 80% of its community has been vaccinated, and less than 1% of its active-duty force is infected with COVID-19.
12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?
The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · July 1, 2021
Perhaps it can use the Chinese calculus but it probably will not suit US and ROK/US alliance interests.
13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un
The Korea Times · by Yoon Ja-young · July 2, 2021
He can't handle the youth! Too Much exposure to foreign culture. Just imagine if we made a concerted effort to conduct a comprehensive information and influence campaign.
Excerpts: “Kim said in April that the culture of the young people is a critical problem that cannot be overlooked anymore as the fate of the party, revolution, country and its people are at stake. He ordered an inspection of young people's fashion, hairstyles, and the way they talk and behave.
However, Seo said it is doubtful whether this will work.
"The regime is working hard to prevent their ideological deviation as well as enhancing their loyalty to the regime. However, it is out of touch with reality. Young people aren't accepting those schemes as their parents did in the past."
Park noted in a report that famine is not what the regime fears.
"For at least the next five years, there won't be massive famine or death from starvation as seen in mid 1990s unless there is a series of massive natural disasters. It's because those who have grown up with the market economy in North Korea are now equipped with mechanisms for survival," she said.
"What the Kim Jong-un regime fears most is deviation among its people who have tasted money and freedom. It's time to note what survival strategies the North Korean people take against the regime's reign of terror."
14. South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper
Circular reporting but without the Unification Ministry saying it has no knowledge of this. If letters were exchanged they probably went through intelligence channels versus through the Unification Ministry. Maybe the MOU was cut out of the loop on this, if it occurred at all.
15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea
UPI · by Thomas Maresca · July 2, 2021
And the United Nations Command and the ROK//US Combined Forces Command and as the Senior US Military Officer in Korea (and a member of the Military Committee) (he wears 4 hats)
It was interesting to watch during the ceremony as each commander and the Command Sergeant Major changed patches for each passing of the colors. When I was in the ROK/US CFC (and UNC and USFK) we did not wear any patches. As I recall those assigned solely to USFK wore a USFK patch and those of us assigned to multiple commands did not wear any patches. Of course back then we did not have Velcro patches either making it easy to exchange them during the ceremony. It would have been pretty time consuming to have to sew on a new one for each passing of the colors.
16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021
Yes, the operative word is constructive. That would mean Kim has decided to act as a responsible member of the international community.
17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 2, 2021
Interesting title. I did a double take and thought I missed something in General LaCamera's speech. Did he call for a renewal of the Team Spirit exercise? No he did not. The Korean Herald headline editor decided on that title.
Good words here: “We learn from each other, we create combat readiness together and more importantly, we build trust together,” LaCamera said.
18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"
dailynk.com · July 2, 2021
So would this be a new "gestapo like" organization?
Again, who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?
19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"
dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 2, 2021
Now this is significant. Kim only remains in power with the support of the military. Did the military have an outbreak? I think I recall the reports of 200 or more soldiers quarantined last year for respiratory ailments.
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“When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off."
- Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)
"We got a mountain to move."
- General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command
"Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can't have what you've got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don't rate it."
- Robert Heinlein - The Door into Summer
I recommend a new custom for UNC/CFC/USFK. When two military personnel meet and salute, the first will say "Katchi Kapshida" and the response will be "We got a mountain to move." (derived from the Korean adage about all working together can move a mountain - General Abrams used this adage in his speech and General LaCamera concluded his speech with "we got a mountain to move.").