News and commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.
1. Talk of US troop cut reemerges, puts Seoul on edge
2. U.S. considers withdrawing its forces from overseas bases
3. U.S. Experts Slam S.Korea over Treatment of Defectors' Groups
4. Trump 'Told Pentagon to Cut Troops in Korea'
5. North Korean leader berates officials over hospital project
6. Four U.S. B-1Bs return to Guam
7. Kim Yo Jong, Sister Of North Korea's Ruler, Rises Through Ranks With Tough Rhetoric
8. New virus cases at over 3-week low; imported cases still rising (South Korea)
9. Moon's adviser pushes for inter-Korean city-to-city cooperation projects
10. More Koreans disapprove of President Moon
11. Abrams says USFK takes recent spike in imported virus cases 'very, very seriously'
12. North Korea, Country With 'Zero' Coronavirus Cases, Now Claims It's Developing Covid-19 Vaccine
13. S. Korea's first military satellite to be launched this week: reports
14. N. Korea permits families to visit imprisoned relatives
15. Suing N. Korea over liaison office demolition not viable option: unification ministry
16. US troop pullout trick aims to pile pressure on S.Korea
17. Penny wise, pound foolish: The flawed logic of withdrawal from South Korea
1. Talk of US troop cut reemerges, puts Seoul on edge
m.koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-Mi · July 19, 2020
I have written quite a bit about US interests for keeping US forces on the Korean peninsula.
But the Moon administration also has to consider how important is the US troop= presence to its defense and to deterring war on the peninsula.
As bad as the Moon-Trump relationship may be and as bad as the SMA demands may be for ROK, the Moon administration needs to reflect deeply on what it can do to ensure the alliance endures. That is what we are ally talking about here. As I have written many times, we could very well be heading into the perfect storm given the current state of the alliance relationship as well as the situation in the north.
It is unlikely we are going to see much compromise from the Trump administration. Of course, if the South compromises sufficiently to reach an agreement all this will be explained that this entire situation has simply been a negotiating tactic by the President. That may appear true but the reason for compromise will be the result a thorough analysis of RO's strategic interests.
2. U.S. considers withdrawing its forces from overseas bases
donga.com – by Young-Sik Kim – 20 July 2020
The Congressional requirement is for consultation with the ROK (and Japan).
But this is an interesting assessment from the Editorial Board: "The Moon Jae-in administration has a strong team of experts in North Korea but lacks experts in the United States, who can negotiate, coordinate and even lead the future of the South Korea-U.S. alliance." I fear some of the experts on north Korea have some skewed views on the Kim family regime. But I think it is an interesting assessment to say the ROK Administration has no US experts. I would go on to say that there may be some number who look at the US threat to withdraw troops as an opportunity as they believe it will somehow improve the relationship with the north rather than make the ROK more vulnerable to the Kim family regime's strategy of subversion, coercion, and extortion.
3. U.S. Experts Slam S.Korea over Treatment of Defectors' Groups
Important words from four of my friends and colleagues. (except for Kim Yo-jong - she is neither a friend nor a colleague. She is just an evil young woman).
This is a serious situation in South Korea. And it is disappointing to see the Moon administration act this way toward escapees/defectors groups and their important work.
4. Trump 'Told Pentagon to Cut Troops in Korea'
Perhaps a little-known fact: the 4,500 or so troops in the rotational brigade combat team are not counted in the 28,500 troops stationed in Korea. Yes, stopping the rotation is an easy step and one that would not technically violate the Congressional language in the NDAA because it would not lower the troop level below the 28,500-floor set in the 2020 NDAA. But then there would be no ground combat maneuver troops in Korea whatsoever. That would send an interesting message about our strategic reassurance and strategic resolve but per the language of both Republicans and Democrats (according to the report below) would simply be a message of "strategic incompetence."
5. North Korean leader berates officials over hospital project
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · July 20, 2020
Work harder. Study Juche more. Work harder. We cannot have any coronavirus cases until you finish the hospital. Study Juche more. Work harder. (I want to be Kim Jong-un's speech writer).
6. Four U.S. B-1Bs return to Guam
donga.com – by Sang-Ho Yun – 20 July 2020
"Deadly swan?" I thought it was just the Bone. But it is good to have these in theater for multiple potential contingencies.
Not only do military HQs keep track of where these assets are deployed, so does the Korean press. The Korea press will interpret every move as a signal.
7. Kim Yo Jong, Sister Of North Korea's Ruler, Rises Through Ranks With Tough Rhetoric
NPR · by Anthony Kuhn · July 19, 2020
A lot of speculation about Kim Yo-jong. I am sure she and Kim Jong-un are enjoying how everyone is trying to figure this out.
8. New virus cases at over 3-week low; imported cases still rising (South Korea)
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 20, 2020
It is global travel that is going to keep this virus alive. Those long aluminum tubes with wings are the best vector for virus transmission.
9. Moon's adviser pushes for inter-Korean city-to-city cooperation projects
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 19, 2020
On the surface I fully support this type of engagement. I don't think Kim Jong-un will support it but if he does, he may be for what a Korean friend pointed out to me regarding this initiative. Kim Jong-un could use this as a method to conduct more aggressive subversive activities to influence the Korean people and officials in the South. There are some in the South who might support such activities. Of course I would like to do the same in the north.
10. More Koreans disapprove of President Moon
m.koreatimes.co.kr · July 19, 2020
Of course, this always happens in Korea with its single five-year presidential term. The approval rating always declines.
Buried lede: Koreans in the South are losing faith in liberal politics (and policies). Of course, that does not mean there is more support for the conservatives. As one woman put it, she now sees there is no difference between the liberal and conservatives when it comes to corrupt policies. But there is no discussion of national security policies.
11. Abrams says USFK takes recent spike in imported virus cases 'very, very seriously'
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 20, 2020
There should be no doubt that he does take this seriously. He has probably been the most aggressive military commander in trying to deal with the virus. But what this shows is just how complex it is trying to manage this pandemic. There is no silver bullet and we are learning as we go (though we know that basic public health procedures of testing, quarantining, tracking and tracing, and treating work the best).
12. North Korea, Country With 'Zero' Coronavirus Cases, Now Claims It's Developing Covid-19 Vaccine
ibtimes.sg · by Bhaswati Guha Majumder · July 19, 2020
But at least north Kora's Propaganda and Agitation bureau is in full operation. It must not have been hit by the virus as it is hitting on all cylinders.
13. S. Korea's first military satellite to be launched this week: reports
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 20, 2020
14. N. Korea permits families to visit imprisoned relatives
dailynk.com – by Ha Yoon Ah - July 20, 2020
Imagine being allowed to visit your relatives and then being "asked" to return to a forced labor camp with a year's worth of food and supplies?
15. Suing N. Korea over liaison office demolition not viable option: unification ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 20, 2020
But it would sure send a message if you did it. But given the view of the MOU I am surprised this is even being mentioned as a course of action. South Korea should do something about the destruction of the liaison facility, but I believe the administration prioritizes engagement. But the sad irony is the more the South focuses on engagement the more acts like the destruction of the liaison office will take place because Kim knows he can get away with it.
16. US troop pullout trick aims to pile pressure on S.Korea
globaltimes.cn – Du Wenlong - 19 July 2020
So here is the view in the Chinese Communist Party publication. They assess this is just a "trick" to extort more money from the South.
17. Penny wise, pound foolish: The flawed logic of withdrawal from South Korea
militarytimes.com · by David Maxwell · July 19, 2020
"Strategy is revolution. Everything else is tactics."
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History
"Power always has to be kept in check; power exercised in secret, especially under the cloak of national security, is doubly dangerous."
- William Proxmire
The freedom to criticize ideas, any ideas - even if they are sincerely held beliefs - is one of the fundamental freedoms of society.
-Rowan Atkinson