News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Trump-Kim-Moon: Back to Square One?
2. Defense chief congratulates United Nations Command on 70th founding anniversary
3. Moon replaces five secretaries; ex-vice defense minister installed in NSC
4. U.S. official says N.K. must return to diplomatic engagement
5. South Koreans Might Be Willing to Pay More for the U.S. Military’s Protection - But Only Under These Conditions
6. Expert: If You Want North Korea to Give Up Nuclear Weapons, Start by Ending the Korean War
7. N. Korea ranks worst in nuclear material security: report
8. 'Steel Rain 2: Summit': Cinematic simulation of peaceful Korean Peninsula
9. Deterring North Korea: The Need for Collective Resolve and Alliance Transformation
10. Defense reform 2.0 after Covid-19 (South Korea)
11. US Senate passes bill restricting troop drawdown in S. Korea
12. Assembly panel chief Song suggests Trump invite NK leader’s sister to US
13. South Korea responds angrily to Iran threats over frozen assets
14. Defector-turned-lawmaker under fire for 'ideological verification' of minister nominee
15. Korea's general election sets democracy model during pandemic
16. Statement of Declaration: South Korea’s Supreme Court Must Order Manual Vote Recount and Take the Next Steps in the Election Fraud Lawsuits
17. Chinese ships catch $440 million worth of squid in N. Korean waters
18. Kim Jong Un touts ‘thousands of tons of’ meat amid food shortage
19. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea rebellion as 70% of citizens breaking major rule
20. You can’t blame Donald Trump for filling Moon Jae-in’s cabinet with pro-Pyongyang ex-terrorists
1. Trump-Kim-Moon: Back to Square One?
besacenter.org · by Dr. Alon Levkowitz · July 23, 2020
A good piece that correctly identifies Kim's failures but to play Trump and Moon to get them to give up sanctions. They do not succumb to Kim's long con. But I disagree that we are back to square. We have accomplished a few things in the last two years. First we have tested some concepts. We know Kim Jong-un has not been willing to allow substantive working level negotiations. He only wants to make a deal directly with Trump and that has to be unacceptable. We have made accommodations for the perceived hostile policy - we have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back exercises to provide space for diplomacy. Kim has not reciprocated and instead in the last year has conducted more than 20 missile and rocket tests and continued to Winter and Summer Training Cycles. The South negotiated the Comprehensive Military Agreement with relatively good confidence building measures that were executed in good faith by the South and the UN Command but again were not reciprocated. Kim has been tested and he has been found wanting.
Kim has continued to press his long con with his blackmail diplomacy. Despite the criticism of both Moon and Trump the most important thing they have done, as the author notes, is to not lift sanctions. This has two effects. Most important, it has placed Kim under enormous internal pressure from the elite and the military. He raised expectations in 2018 that he would be able to use his normal negotiating tactics to be able to get something for nothing. Trump disabused him of this and although Moon seems to desire to return to s Sunshine Policy on steroids he has been unable to the UN sanctions regime and US law.
The second effect is that Kim has not been able to successfully execute his blackmail diplomacy strategy. This must continue because it is the only way to break the provocation cycle. At some point Kim will be forced to change either from the pressure from within or from the realization that the ROK/US alliance is going to remain rock solid and not acquiesce to his demands. It is only these two conditions that have any chance of changing Kim's calculus and making the right strategic decision.
So we are not back to square one. We actually can press forward with pressure. If we let up or give in to any of his demands Kim will confirm his blackmail diplomacy works and he will continue on his long con to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. And he will continue to execute his political warfare strategy to seek peninsula domination. We are not back to square one but if we appease Kim in any way we will then go back to square one or even farther back than that. We must sustain the pressure on Kim. He has failed. We have not.
2. Defense chief congratulates United Nations Command on 70th founding anniversary
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 24, 2020
A very important statement from the Minister of defense about respecting the role and function of the UNC even after OPCON transition.
3. Moon replaces five secretaries; ex-vice defense minister installed in NSC
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · July 24, 2020
4. U.S. official says N.K. must return to diplomatic engagement
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 24, 2020
For the past two years the US has been prepared and willing to engage in working level negotiations with north Korea. It is Kim Jong-un who has not allowed those negotiations to take place.
5. South Koreans Might Be Willing to Pay More for the U.S. Military’s Protection - But Only Under These Conditions
The National Interest · by Timothy S. Rich · July 23, 2020
Some very interesting data in this article. However, I am not sure what additional benefits an increase in burden sharing might provide. The authors did not address what those additional benefits might be. I am not sure what more than deterring an attack from the north and defending South Korea the alliance can do. What is more valuable than that?
6. Expert: If You Want North Korea to Give Up Nuclear Weapons, Start by Ending the Korean War
The National Interest · by Zack Brown · July 23, 2020
A peace treaty should be between north and South Korea, not the US and north Korea. Per UN Security Council Resolution 82 and 83 in 1950 north Korea was identified as the aggressor who attacked South Korea and it asked UN members to come to the defense of South Korean and its freedom. The US did not declare war on north Korea. And we should remember that the Kim family regime and specifically Kim Il-sung have the blood of 5 million people on their hands. And of course the horrendous suffering of the Korean people in the north since then is solely a result of the leadership and policy decisions of the Kim family regime. Those who wish to appease the regime should remember the evil nature of the regime which is the cause of all problems on the Korean peninsula. And of course if anyone thinks a peace treaty or some kind of "peace regime" will lead to denuclearization of the north then they should rethink their logic and analysis and their understanding of the nature of the regime and its strategy and objectives.
7. N. Korea ranks worst in nuclear material security: report
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 23, 2020
I wonder what the 19 points out of a 100 were for.
8. 'Steel Rain 2: Summit': Cinematic simulation of peaceful Korean Peninsula
en.yna.co.kr · by 김보람 · July 24, 2020
Speaking of a peace treaty and trying to end the Korean War here is a fictional account of an attempt to do so. :-)
9. Deterring North Korea: The Need for Collective Resolve and Alliance Transformation
38north.org · by S. Paul Choi · July 23, 2020
A good thought piece from Paul Choi. He hits the nail on the head that it is not the military capabilities of the alliance that are an issue, it is the perception of commitment. He provides a good overview of how the ROK and the US have strengthened their capabilities as well as the key issues of the burden sharing negotiations and OPCON transition.
10. Defense reform 2.0 after Covid-19 (South Korea)
As the author notes, reform requires a stable budget and that is going to be hard to manage in a post-COVID world.
11. US Senate passes bill restricting troop drawdown in S. Korea
koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · July 24, 2020
Korea remains one of the most bipartisan foreign policy issues. Congress understands the importance of the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.
12. Assembly panel chief Song suggests Trump invite NK leader’s sister to US
koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · July 23, 2020
Remember that she is under sanction under US law due to her connection to the nuclear and missile programs, global illicit activities, and human rights abuse.
She would require a waiver to travel to the US.
But I think this is a foolish idea and I seriously doubt that her brother would allow it.
13. South Korea responds angrily to Iran threats over frozen assets
DW · by Deutsche Welle· July 23, 2020
14. Defector-turned-lawmaker under fire for 'ideological verification' of minister nominee
The Korea Times · July 24, 2020
“They doth protest too much.” South Korea needs Thae Yong-ho to make these kinds of challenges. Ideology and past actions are fair game and must be considered and nominees have to explain themselves and their actions.
15. Korea's general election sets democracy model during pandemic
The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · July 24, 2020
There are those among the opposition parties who have a different view.
16. Statement of Declaration: South Korea’s Supreme Court Must Order Manual Vote Recount and Take the Next Steps in the Election Fraud Lawsuits
eastasiaresearch.org · July 24, 2020
The opposition charges election fraud.
17. Chinese ships catch $440 million worth of squid in N. Korean waters
donga.com· July 24, 2020
18. Kim Jong Un touts ‘thousands of tons of’ meat amid food shortage
New York Post · by Yaron Steinbuch · July 23, 2020
There is diet advice in this piece to include a testimonial about slimming tea and weight loss. You cannot make this stuff up. It say now obese people can lose weight with ease. Of course there are only two obese people in north Korea: Kim Jong-un and his body double.
19. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea rebellion as 70% of citizens breaking major rule
Ciaran McGrath
express.co.uk · by Ciaran McGrath · July 23, 2020
The struggle against culture is a priority in the north. Soft power from the South is having an influence and is a threat to the regime. And who would have thought teenage sex was a problem in the north so much so that it has to be classified as treasonous act? But information and influence activities are important and have effects. The Korean people in the north want information about the outside world.
20. You can’t blame Donald Trump for filling Moon Jae-in’s cabinet with pro-Pyongyang ex-terrorists
One of the most provocative titles I have seen from Josh Stanton.
freekorea.us · by Joshua Stanton · July 23, 2020
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