09/19/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

1. Sinpo South Shipyard: Submersible Test Barge Visible at the Boat Basin

2. Missile launch or storm repairs? Activity fuels speculation of N.Korea

3. Yes, The United States Did Draw Up A Plan To Drop 80 Nuclear Weapons On North Korea

4. U.S. to call for joint efforts to denuclearize N. Korea at IAEA meeting: state

5. Pyongyang summit deal should be fulfilled, Moon says in anniversary message

6. North Korea fury: Kim aims for 'mass casualties and destruction' to stop US invasion

7. North Korea experts say Kim Jong-un could unveil new weapons amid military base activity

8. Defense chief: inter-Korean agreement eases military tensions

9. Why North Korea Won't Make a Deal Before the 2020 Elections

10. S. Korea reports 110 new virus cases as rise in local infections persists

11. How Hurricanes and Storms Have Wreaked Havoc on North Korea

12. How America Can Work to Solve the North Korea Challenge: Talk to China

13. Escape from North Korea: 'I'm free because of movies and English'

1. Sinpo South Shipyard: Submersible Test Barge Visible at the Boat Basin

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · September 18, 2020

Again, so what are we not seeing? The regime knows we can see this. What do they not want us to see?

2. Missile launch or storm repairs? Activity fuels speculation of N.Korea

Jerusalem Post

What are the regime priorities?

3. Yes, The United States Did Draw Up A Plan To Drop 80 Nuclear Weapons On North Korea

thedrive.com – by Thomas Newdick

BS.  Why would we use 80 nuclear weapons in north Korea?  Perhaps we had 80 targets related to the north's nuclear program, but we don't need to use 80 nuclear weapons to destroy north Korea's nuclear (and missile) program and capabilities.  Think of what 80 nuclear weapons detonated on (or over) the Korean peninsula would do to South Korea and Japan.  And no military professional would describe OPLAN 5027 as a plan for regime change. Destruction of the nKPA after it attacks the South, yes, but no military professional would describe it as regime change.  As I have written, Woodward's research assistant likely pulled descriptions of the plans from the internet.  Woodward's credibility on this issue is suspect.

4. U.S. to call for joint efforts to denuclearize N. Korea at IAEA meeting: state

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 19, 2020

5. Pyongyang summit deal should be fulfilled, Moon says in anniversary message

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 19, 2020

Sometimes dreams come true but fantasies don't.  There are no indications that Kim Jong-un has any intention of implementing the Pyongyang (or Panmunjom) declarations and agreements.  And based on past history and the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives this is a pure fantasy.  I do not fault President Moon for his vision or for trying as long as his pursuit of this fantasy does not put the security of the ROK and the interests of the ROK/US alliance at risk.

6. North Korea fury: Kim aims for 'mass casualties and destruction' to stop US invasion

Express · by Joel Day · September 18, 2020

We should not be deceived to think the north is really preparing to defend against an invasion.  The north is oriented for the offense and has a campaign plan to attack the South and unify the peninsula under its domination and its plans for attack are based on "mass casualties and destruction.". In short, for the north's campaign plan to succeed the nKPA must completely occupy South Korea before the US can reinforce the peninsula.  It is first a race to the Han River bridges east of Seoul and then once crossing sites are secured, it is a race to Pusan.  To do that the nKPA must penetrate 5 ROK defensive belts FEBA A-E.

7. North Korea experts say Kim Jong-un could unveil new weapons amid military base activity

Mirror · by Chiara Fiorillo · September 19, 2020

As experts have noted the north rarely (if ever) shows off equipment at parades that have not been fielded or are ready to be fielded.  So if we see something it must be ready for employment. What have we missed being developed?

On the other hand, the regime is masterful at denial and deception so maybe they will show us something in order to support its blackmail diplomacy but may in fact is not yet ready or has even been developed.

8. Defense chief: inter-Korean agreement eases military tensions

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · September 19, 2020

I am not sure there is any evidence of reducing tensions.  From May 2019 through April 2020 the north conducted some 21 missile and rocket tests that are a direct threat to ROK and US bases in the South.  While the ROK/US alliance has reduced readiness South of the DMZ (no fly zones impacting ISR and loss of live fire training opportunities due to proximity to the DMZ) there has been no reciprocal actions in the north.  Yes, they have removed some guard posts and changed procedures in JSA but the north has done nothing to seriously reduce tensions.

9. Why North Korea Won't Make a Deal Before the 2020 Elections

The National Interest · by Stratfor Worldview · September 18, 2020

It will only make a deal in this short amount of time if it could extort huge concessions from the US. It would require an offer it can't refuse.  (It will require huge concessions just to have a meeting between now and the election and it will likely make the same demands after the election regardless of who wins.)

10.  S. Korea reports 110 new virus cases as rise in local infections persists

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · September 19, 2020

11. How Hurricanes and Storms Have Wreaked Havoc on North Korea

The National Interest · by Jessup Jong · September 18, 2020

What makes these disasters worse are the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un (allowing massive deforestation) as well as the construction of substandard infrastructure.

12. How America Can Work to Solve the North Korea Challenge: Talk to China

The National Interest · by Ramon Marks · September 19, 2020

How many times have we heard this advice? How many times have we tried this?  Perhaps China does not want to help solve South Korean and US security challenges?

I am reminded of the quote we always misattributed to Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

13. Escape from North Korea: 'I'm free because of movies and English'

The Korea Times · September 19, 2020

What a tragic story and compounded by an abusive marriage in South Korea.  I wish this escapee all the happiness in the future.

We are fortunate that she is strong enough to tell her story and to reinforce the importance of information getting into north Korea.

“Fight for the things that you care about, but do it in a way that will lead others to join you.” 

- Ruth Bader Ginsberg

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform."

- Mark Twain

"The most courageous act is still to think for yourself. Aloud."

- Coco Chanel

"The opposite of love is not hate, it's indifference. The opposite of art is not ugliness, it's indifference. The opposite of faith is not heresy, it's indifference. And the opposite of life is not death, it's indifference."

- Elie Wiesel