News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. The Vise Tightens on the Dollar
2. The next financial crisis may be coming soon
3. China Hits Back at Pompeo’s Espionage Allegation Against New York Consulate
4. The Man Who Can Get Us Out of Afghanistan
5. Republicans as Avengers? Dan Crenshaw goes all Captain America in new political ad
6. UK develops cyber weapons that could take out power grids in enemy states
7. How the U.S. Military is Prioritizing Great-Power Competition
8. The Blob Meets the Heartland: Foreign policy should work better for America’s middle class.
9. Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war: Global Times editorial
10. Air Force Betting on New Robotic Wingman
11. Places and Names: On War, Revolution and Returning
12. Trump’s team plots his departure - even if he won’t
13. Navigating the Asia-Pacific Threat Landscape: Experts Dive In
14. U.S. Commandos Use Secretive Missiles to Kill Qaeda Leaders in Syria
15. Ospreys draw eyes over Ukraine during special ops exercises
16. In a First, 100 Mexican Firefighters Arrive in California to Help Battle Wildfires
17. Dire Straits - Should American Support for Taiwan Be Ambiguous?
1. The Vise Tightens on the Dollar
project-syndicate.org · by Stephen S. Roach · September 25, 2020
Troubling news. Quote: "In short, the vise is tightening on a still-overvalued dollar. Domestic saving is now plunging as never before, and the current-account balance is following suit. Don’t expect the Fed, focused more on supporting equity and bond markets than on leaning against inflation, to save the day. The dollar’s decline has only just begun."
2. The next financial crisis may be coming soon
Financial Times · by Gillian Tett · September 24, 2020
More troubling news. We must protect our economic instrument of power. Quote: "Of course, such a disruption might not merit blazing headlines, given all the other more immediately worrying pieces of news right now. But investors should remember this: if lenders react to a stealthy rise in defaults - and, most important, a fear of future stress - this could tighten credit conditions despite central banks’ policies."
3. China Hits Back at Pompeo’s Espionage Allegation Against New York Consulate
caixinglobal.com · by Lu Zhenhua – 26 September 2020
China doth protest too much. But of course, no country would admit its routine espionage activities even though it is what everybody does. Admit nothing, deny everything, make counteraccusations.
4. The Man Who Can Get Us Out of Afghanistan
spectator.org · by Jeremy Lott · September 26, 2020
Based on this essay it does seem likely this man will shake things up. But if President Trump is not re-elected, he will have little time.
5. Republicans as Avengers? Dan Crenshaw goes all Captain America in new political ad
expressnews.com · September 25, 2020
The 4 minute video is at this link on YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd6b_8OlwXU
I have never seen a more over the top political ad. :-). I do not offer this as a political statement or endorsement. It is just an entertaining ad.
6. UK develops cyber weapons that could take out power grids in enemy states
Sky News – by Deborah Haynes
Sometimes there is just too much information out there. Or General Sanders is executing an influence operation. Of course, this should not be surprising and I doubt the UK is the only country with or developing this capability. This might be right out of the Chinese Unrestricted Warfare.
Note this article: Energy Grid Supply-Chain Risks and U.S.-China Entanglement https://www.lawfareblog.com/energy-grid-supply-chain-risks-and-us-china-entanglement
7. How the U.S. Military is Prioritizing Great-Power Competition
The National Interest · by Michael O'Hanlon · September 25, 2020
Of course, this article is focused on Naval power and rightly so as it is a critical component of great power competition. And of course, one of the key aspects of strategy is the prioritization and allocation of resources.
But I think we are missing major elements of great power competition:
Problem: We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
Gray Zone, Hybrid Conflict, Unconventional Warfare, Counter-Unconventional Warfare, Revolution, Resistance, Insurgency, Terrorism, Civil War ll may occur in the context of Great Power Competition.
In short:
- Competition equals Political Warfare
- Most likely
- State on state warfare less likely
- Most dangerous
- Consider lessons from the OSS to operate in the modern era of the Gray Zone and Political Warfare
- But we must always be prepared for also major theater war
8. The Blob Meets the Heartland: Foreign policy should work better for America’s middle class.
defenseone.com · by William J. Burns
An interesting essay. Here is a the link to the Carnegie report: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/23/making-u.s.-foreign-policy-work-better-for-middle-class-pub-82728
This excerpt jumped out at me. This is what our foreign policy and national security professionals should consider and understand. But it is also important for our allies to understand this as well. Quote: "Most of those we interviewed saw the value of America’s allies and our country’s active global leadership, but they expected other countries to invest more in their own military and contribute a greater share of the costs of securing peace. They were also skeptical of Washington’s foreign-policy extremes-its episodic crusading impulses as well as its bouts of isolationism."
9. Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war: Global Times editorial
From a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party. The folks at Leavenworth should be happy with the shoutout for Military Review. Someone besides military professionals is reading their work!
This is an interesting interpretation of US military and strategic thinking.
But the conclusion gives us an idea of how the CCP views its own actions and how it views the Taiwan-US relationship. And I guess the CCP thinks of itself as "god-like" that can punish sinners. But I suppose that is how one feels when you think the Middle Kingdom should dominate the region if not the world.
10. Air Force Betting on New Robotic Wingman
nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Jon Harper – 25 September 2020
But can you take this wingman to the officer's club for a beer at happy hour for saving your a**? Seriously though this seems like a pretty cool capability.
11. Places and Names: On War, Revolution and Returning
realcleardefense.com · by John Waters
Of course, the title was clickbait for me. It was not the article I expected but interesting, nonetheless. I have read a lot from Eliot Ackerman, but I was unaware of his background.
12. Trump’s team plots his departure - even if he won’t
Politico – 24 September 2020
This is a fascinating read. Again, I do not offer this as a partisan statement but to illustrate what goes on behind the scenes in all administrations and what is required by law.
13. Navigating the Asia-Pacific Threat Landscape: Experts Dive In
The cyber domain is "key terrain" in great power competition. Key point: "Both experts agree nation-state groups based out of China pose a major threat to the region. While these attackers typically dominate threats against telecommunications, El-Nabawi says threat intelligence indicates they have also targeted food and beverage, healthcare, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, in addition to telecommunications and tech companies."
14. U.S. Commandos Use Secretive Missiles to Kill Qaeda Leaders in Syria
The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · September 24, 2020
Excerpt: "But in an opposite corner of the country, where the United States has no troops on the ground, the military’s secretive Joint Special Operations Command, with help from the C.I.A., is carrying out a shadow war against a different terrorist threat - a small but virulent Al Qaeda affiliate - that American officials say is plotting attacks against the West."
I guess it is not cliche to say this is one helluva missile: "But the modified Hellfire missile carries an inert warhead. Instead of exploding, it hurls about 100 pounds of metal through the top of a target’s vehicle. If the high-velocity projectile does not kill the target, the missile’s other feature almost certainly does: six long blades tucked inside, which deploy seconds before impact to slice up anything in its path... The Hellfire variant, known as the R9X, was initially developed nearly a decade ago under pressure from President Barack Obama to reduce civilian casualties and property damage in the United States’ long-running wars on terrorism in far-flung hot spots such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Yemen."
15. Ospreys draw eyes over Ukraine during special ops exercises
airforcetimes.com · by Stephen Losey · September 25, 2020
One of my regrets is that I never flew on a CV-22 while on active duty.
16. In a First, 100 Mexican Firefighters Arrive in California to Help Battle Wildfires
kqed.org · by Matthew Green
This is an amazing development on multiple levels. Thank you to our Mexican neighbors for supporting the US in fighting this disaster.
17. Dire Straits - Should American Support for Taiwan Be Ambiguous?
Foreign Affairs – by Bonnie S. Glaser, Michael J. Mazarr, Michael J. Glennon, Richard Haass, and David Sacks - September 24, 2020
To be ambiguous or not to be ambiguous. That is the question.
A very thoughtful debate/discussion below.
“The framers of the Constitution took deliberate steps to ensure that treason trials would not be used as political weapons against opponents. Article 3, Section 3 defines the crime very narrowly: ‘Treason against the United States shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.’ This language is drawn from an English statute from 1351 that was also intended to limit the scope of treason. Speaking against the government, undermining political opponents, supporting harmful policies or even placing the interests of another nation ahead of those of the United States are not acts of treason under the Constitution.”
- Carlton F.W. Larson
"Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others."
- J.F.C. Fuller
“Our own generation is unique, but sadly so, in producing a school of thinkers who are allegedly experts in military strategy and who are certainly specialists in military studies but who know virtually nothing of military history”
- Bernard Brodie, "The Continuing Relevance of On War"