Small Wars Journal

11/07/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sat, 11/07/2020 - 11:09am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Pyonghattanite: Why I Left North Korea?

2. North Korea and Biological Weapons: Assessing the Evidence

3. Peeking under the shroud of North Korea's Monster Missile

4. Suspected North Korean hackers who targeted job applicants prove more ambitious than first believed

5. Unification minister urges N.K. not to heighten tensions to test incoming U.S. administration

6. Experts call for new U.S. gov't to craft viable approach to N.K. nukes

7. 'Biden fully ready to invest in N. Korea denuclearization'

8. South Korea Lost Track of North Korean Defector Who Crossed DMZ

9. S. Korea, China agree to cut fishing in EEZs

10.  S. Korea's new coronavirus cases reduced to double digits

11. Defense minister meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N. Korea

12. U.N. chief Guterres calls for intensified efforts to engage with N. Korea

13. How Did a Floating Australian "Party Resort" End Up in North Korea?

14. South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

 

1. Pyonghattanite: Why I Left North Korea?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5AoGDxLGuU

Another powerful video from our friend Seo Hyun Lee in which she describes the truly evil nature of the Kim Family Regime.  Please take 5 minutes to watch this.  We will never truly understand what it is like to live in north Korea but Ms. Lee can help us to have some knowledge about it.

 

2. North Korea and Biological Weapons: Assessing the Evidence

38north.org · by Elisa D. Harris

The 18 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.38north.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/38-North-SR-2011-Elisa-Harris_North-Korea-Biological-Weapons-Assessment.pdf

Sigh.... this conclusion makes me think of Sun Tzu - "Never assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

In the final analysis, North Korea may once have had and may still be pursuing a biological weapons capability. It is also possible that North Korea never moved beyond R&D on biological agents and the establishment of a biotechnical infrastructure that could support future BW production. It is also possible that the North Korean program never moved beyond planning or, whatever its previous nature, the program has essentially ended. But one thing seems clear-nothing in the official public record to date indicates that North Korea has an advanced BW program, notwithstanding media reports to the contrary.

This may be correct (it does provide enough waffling to be correct whether they have a bio program or had one and stopped it).  But after witnessing the global pandemics and the response to it, especially in countries like the US I suspect the revisionist and rogue powers of the world are re-evaluating the efficacy of developing deliberate bio weapons that might give them an advantage.  Perhaps they did not intend to initiate a global pandemic, but they are surely observing how military forces "fight through" the pandemic to discern lessons as to how forces may react to a biological attack.

 

3. Peeking under the shroud of North Korea's Monster Missile

armscontrolwonk.com · by Joshua Pollack

More intelligence analysis is required.  Joshua Pollack provides some useful insights and this important conclusion.  What are we going to do if the regime tests such an ICBM during the transition? (assuming Biden is elected).  I doubt we are going to do any bargaining for the reaffirmation of Kim Jong-un's 2018 pledge" during the transition period.

 

4. Suspected North Korean hackers who targeted job applicants prove more ambitious than first believed

cyberscoop.com · by Tim Starks · November 6, 2020

"Operation dream Job." When something seems too good to be true it probably is.  But I think we should never underestimate the capabilities of the north Koran all purpose sword.

 

5. Unification minister urges N.K. not to heighten tensions to test incoming U.S. administration

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 6, 2020

Somehow, I do not think the regime is going to heed anything from the Minister of Unification.

 

6. Experts call for new U.S. gov't to craft viable approach to N.K. nukes

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · November 7, 2020

I would ask both the South Korean and US governments to first conduct a thorough review of their strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.  I would love to see a joint review by senior ROK and US government officials and an alliance agreement on the fundamental assumptions the alliance upon which the alliance will base policy and strategy.

 

7. 'Biden fully ready to invest in N. Korea denuclearization'

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 6, 2020

I am still thinking about Vice President Biden's unprecedented Yonhap OpEd.  In what other country's media did he publish an OpEd?  

Here is a challenge to Vice President Biden’s national security team from our good friend Shin Beom-chul.  If he is elected, I hope they can be ready before July though I suppose he is anticipating a long confirmation process in a Republican majority Senate.  But I am sure there is a national security team working behind the scenes below the level of confirmation required positions that is conducting (and likely has conducted) assessments and policy and strategy review and development.

 

8. South Korea Lost Track of North Korean Defector Who Crossed DMZ

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

I do not know this for sure, but my sense is the ROK military is too dependent on technology and is not executing the basic "blocking and tackling" fundamentals of daylight reconnaissance and nighttime ambush patrols. I assume the DMZ south of the MDL is no longer saturated with patrols but rather only has sensors and troops in guard posts monitoring them as in the photo below the "patrols" take place along the South Barrier Fence of the DMZ.  I suspect the military is operating under politically imposed rules of engagement to not conduct aggressive patrols in the DMZ in the misguided belief that this will somehow have a positive effect on north Korea.  Instead it simply communicates a military weakness.   If you want to prevent infiltration and track infiltrators in the DMZ, you have to conduct aggressive patrolling.   There is no effective technological replacement though the technology can be a useful force multiplier.  Give me the enduring fundamentals.

 

9. S. Korea, China agree to cut fishing in EEZs

en.yna.co.kr · by 남광식 · November 6, 2020

???? reduction of 50 fishing boats?

Excerpt: "Under the agreement, which was reached during a meeting of fisheries officials, the number of boats allowed to fish in each other's EEZs will be reduced to 1,350 next year from this year's 1,400, according to South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries."

 

10. S. Korea's new coronavirus cases reduced to double digits

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · November 7, 2020

It is all relative - 89 in South Korea - 121,000 in the US.  27,284 total cases in the ROK and 9+ million in the US.  Just saying.  Where you stand depends on where you sit.

And then there is this: "Of the 17 imported cases, 11 were foreigners and six were South Koreans. They came from the United States, Russia, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, France, Poland, Ukraine, Hungary, Algeria, Liberia and Ghana."  The company we keep.

 

11. Defense minister meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 6, 2020

This wound is going to fester in South Korea for some time to come and may never heal.

 

12. U.N. chief Guterres calls for intensified efforts to engage with N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · November 6, 2020

Unfortunately, the criteria for engagement with north Korea is concessions to the regime.  The Secretary General and the Presidents of South Korea and the US and most of the entire international community want to sincerely engage with north Korea to bring peace and stability and denuclearization to the peninsula.  Unfortunately, the regime will continue to conduct its political warfare with Juche characteristics.

 

13. How Did a Floating Australian "Party Resort" End Up in North Korea?

insidehook.com · by Tanner Garrity

Another truth is stranger than fiction account.

 

14. South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

republicworld.com – by Vishal Tiwari – 6 November 2020

Three different ways to handle COVID and three different (ongoing) outcomes:

The three sides discussed the COVID-19 pandemic situation in their respective countries and agreed to strengthen cooperation when it comes to vaccine development programmes. COVID-19 situation is particularly grim in the United States, where more than over 9 million have been infected and over 2,35,000 have died. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan have managed to control the pandemic, reporting just 27,000 and 1,05,000 cases respectively and fewer than 2,000 deaths when combined.

South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

 

"Never appeal to a man's better nature. He may not have one. Invoking his self-interest gives you more leverage."

- Robert A. Heinlein

 

Helmuth von Moltke: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy."

Bob Leonhard: "A plan that doesn't survive first contact with the enemy is called 'a bad plan.' You shouldn't be a planner. Fire your G2. Learn about decision matrices."

 

"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."

- Robert A. Heinlein, Friday

Categories: News