News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. N. Korea estimated to have up to 60 nuclear warheads: U.S. think tank
2. N. Korea moves to further strengthen offensive capabilities on Korean border
3. Moon to hold phone talks with Biden soon: Cheong Wa Dae official
4. South Korean spy chief proposes Olympic summit with US, North Korea, Japan: Report
5. A Hypothetical Letter From North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong Un to US President-Elect Joseph Biden
6. Kim 'to test Biden with barrage of nuke missile tests around inauguration'
7. OPCON Transfer and its Potential Impact on the UNC and the NNSC
8. Can Moon's U.S. Diplomacy Get Any Worse?
9. South Korea appealed for Biden's 'summit-level' interests in North Korea talks
10. North Korea Is Emphasizing Potato Production. That Might Be a Bad Sign
11. Moon meets veteran diplomats for discussions on U.S. presidential election outcome
12. Another Korean-American Woman Wins U.S. House Seat
13. Gov't needs experts on alliance and N. Korean nuclear power
14. Chilly North Koreans Grumble as Authorities Ban Firewood Trade Ahead of Winter
15. How Populist Tactics Solidify the Legitimacy of North Korea's Supreme Leader
16. Military to improve border security system following N. Korean's unhindered crossing
1. N. Korea estimated to have up to 60 nuclear warheads: U.S. think tank
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 11, 2020
I have sent out the NDU Strategic Assessments 2020. Here is the link to the 368 page report which as I have said is a very useful reference. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/SA2020/Strategic-Assessment-2020.pdf?ver=-NTckVdG56-CfFYJ73PTgg%3d%3d
Here is the paragraph on page 225 the Yonhap article below is referencing.
Through the development of weapons of mass destruction, use of chemical weapons, and aggressive posturing of its conventional forces, the DPRK threatens regional stability and global norms. North Korea is estimated to have somewhere between 15 and 60 nuclear warheads, as well as approximately 650 ballistic missiles that could threaten cities in South Korea, Japan, and eastern China.44 It has also tested intercontinental ballistic missiles that could be capable of striking the United States.45 At the same time, North Korea continues to pose a conventional threat to South Korea and Japan. The People's Army, an estimated 1.2 million in strength, is overwhelmingly forward-deployed toward the Demilitarized Zone in an offensive posture.46 Kim has also pursued more advanced conventional capabilities, including more precise artillery and ballistic missile capabilities as well as UAVs.47 In this environment, North Korea's nuclear arsenal provides Pyongyang with the potential for nuclear blackmail, allowing it to engage in lower level conventional provocations and, at the same time, affect South Korean and U.S. decisions on kinetic responses or induce economic concessions.
2. N. Korea moves to further strengthen offensive capabilities on Korean border
dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - November 11, 2020
I do not really depend on Daily NK for military analysis (expect when it confirms my biases). But this is why I repeatedly beat the drum that the ROK/US alliance is postured for deterrence and defense while the 4th largest army in the world with 70% of its forces deployed between the DMZ and Pyongyang is postured for offensive operations. It is not postured for the defense. Its military posture supports the assessment that the Kim family regime seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula and unify under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. We should not be swayed by the regime's rhetoric that it is developing deterrent capabilities. The October 10th military parade showed off its offensive capabilities.
So this article confirms my biased assessments.
3. Moon to hold phone talks with Biden soon: Cheong Wa Dae official
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · November 11, 2020
My recommendation to President-elect Biden is to ask President Moon to undertake a reassessment, reexamination, and re-evaluation of the fundamental strategic assumptions about Kim Jong-un and the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime. It is imperative that South Korea and the US develop combined policy and strategy based on a shared understanding about the basic strategic assumptions about north Korea. Alignment on the assumptions can drive effective policy and strategy. We have to deal with north Korea and the regime as it really is and not as we wish it would be. I recommend President-elect Biden ask President Moon to have the MOFA- State strategy working group conduct a combined policy and strategy review and develop a combined and unified way forward that will support, protect, and advance ROK/US alliance national interests.
Of course, if I were advising President Moon I would recommend he pre-empt the President-elect with an offer to conduct a combined strategic review and that he would pledge to objectively reassess his strategic assumptions.
While there are a number of critical alliance issues: OPCON transition, SMA stalemate, Support to THAAD, access to training areas for US forces, strategic flexibility for US forces, China relations, Japan relations, Quad and Quad plus, and deterrence, defense, denuclearization and unification. If we have sufficient alignment on the foundational assumptions about the Kim family regime our policies and strategies can align, and all the outstanding issues can fall into place with proper resolution.
4. South Korean spy chief proposes Olympic summit with US, North Korea, Japan: Report
I guess the 2018 Olympics were so successful for inter-Korean engagement they want to reprise it. But looking at this from north Korea's perspective a Quad summit would appear to the three against one (though the regime might find it useful as an opportunity to drive a wedge among all three "allies").
5. A Hypothetical Letter From North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong Un to US President-Elect Joseph Biden
38north.org · by Kenneth B. Dekleva M.D. · November 10, 2020
We have to deal with Kim Jong-un as he really is and not as we would wish he would be. I wish this would be the letter Kim would send (with sincerity). But even if he did send this type letter it would actually (and unfortunately) be part of his political warfare strategy it would actually be laying the groundwork for future blackmail diplomacy. Please accept my apologies for my cynicism.
6. Kim 'to test Biden with barrage of nuke missile tests around inauguration'
The Sun · by Jon Lockett · November 10, 2020
We shall see. There certainly has been enough speculation about this so if it happens it should be no surprise.
7. OPCON Transfer and its Potential Impact on the UNC and the NNSC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4T-6bDa-1U&feature=emb_logo
Shameless self-promotion. However, I can say this is an important discussion on the OPCON transition process. LTG Chun in Bum because with an explanation of President Moon's position that has never been publicly articulated. This is very important, and it needs to be emphasized. General Brooks gives one of the clearest articulations of the bilateral command structures and how it works - for both the ROK and US.
8. Can Moon's U.S. Diplomacy Get Any Worse?
Strong critique in the title and it gets worse from there.
9. South Korea appealed for Biden's 'summit-level' interests in North Korea talks
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · November 11, 2020
I fear the message is the Moon administration wants to double down on is peace at any cost. I do not think any of us can afford such a cost because it will be paid in blood and treasure given the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives.
10. North Korea Is Emphasizing Potato Production. That Might Be a Bad Sign
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · November 10, 2020
Someone mentioned on twitter that Kim Jong-un likes potato chips.
But seriously will this be like the previous campaign to raise rabbits to solve the food shortages?
I am thinking someone will want to drop in the old child's toy from the 1960s - Mr. Potato Head. - what a cruel thought.
Excerpt: "North Korea is said to have a propaganda song called "Potato Pride" which, according to its page at AllAroundthisworld.com, is "a North Korean propaganda tune in which the elder of the village receives his government ration of potatoes and shares it with his fellow villagers."
11. Moon meets veteran diplomats for discussions on U.S. presidential election outcome
en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · November 11, 2020
I am glad to see former Ambassador Ahn is getting an audience.
12. Another Korean-American Woman Wins U.S. House Seat
The Koreans are proud of Korean-Americans getting elected. Two Democrats and one Republican.
13. Gov't needs experts on alliance and N. Korean nuclear power
More critical commentary about the Moon Administration.
Conclusion: "The transition from Trump to Biden is not just a change of government, but a radical shift of international orders. South Korea would have to overhaul the current "secret room" diplomacy team that only focuses on the inter-Korean relations and restore the diplomacy line for the U.S. and North Korean nuclear power. Renewing the South Korea-U.S. relationship would be difficult without a drastic reshuffle of staff members."
14. Chilly North Koreans Grumble as Authorities Ban Firewood Trade Ahead of Winter
The Korean people in the north are suffering solely because of the decisions made by Kim Jong-un. No one should forget that. It is not sanctions. It is not natural disasters. It is not COVID. It is Kim Jong-un.
15. How Populist Tactics Solidify the Legitimacy of North Korea's Supreme Leader
democratic-erosion.com – by Kim Suheun - November 9, 2020
A very short read that explains much of north Korea and how it exploits "populism."
16. Military to improve border security system following N. Korean's unhindered crossing
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 10, 2020
Boots on the ground: Patrol, patrol, patrol, daylight recon, night ambush.
I do not know this for sure and I would have to do an on the ground assessment but based on open source reporting it appears there is an over-reliance of technology and there are constraints placed on the military due to both the Comprehensive Military Agreement and Moon administration political desires.
"The willingness with which our young people are likely to serve in any war, no matter how justified, shall be directly proportional to how they perceive the Veterans of earlier wars were treated and appreciated by their nation."
- President George Washington
"The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here."
- Abraham Lincoln
"We remember those who were called upon to give all a person can give, and we remember those who were prepared to make that sacrifice if it were demanded of them in the line of duty, though it never was. Most of all, we remember the devotion and gallantry with which all of them ennobled their nation as they became champions of a noble cause."
- Ronald Reagan