News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy
2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden
3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N.Korea
4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee
5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance
6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy
7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea
8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail
9. Kim Jong-un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden
10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us
11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea
12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM
13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed
14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy
15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school
16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea
17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month
18. N.K. paper demands Japan's apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities
19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases
20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary
21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings
22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden
1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy
National Interest · David Maxwell & Matthew Ha · November 12, 2020
The latest from Mathew Ha and me.
I want to flag the excerpt:
"The other component of a successful Korea strategy for the new Biden administration should be reaching a shared consensus with Seoul on the fundamental nature of North Korea’s Kim family regime, its strategies, and its objectives.
The Moon administration is currently laboring under the false assumption that Kim Jong-un shares Seoul’s vision for peace and reconciliation. Seoul’s leadership seeks to initiate economic, cultural, and humanitarian engagement projects to build trust toward peace with North Korea. Unfortunately for Moon, Kim Jong-un has rejected the South Korean leader’s olive branches. Instead, Kim has continued his family’s political warfare strategy of using military provocations to force its adversaries to provide concessions, such as premature sanctions relief, and to de-escalate tensions by forcing U.S. and/or South Korean concessions.
Washington and Seoul must avoid making the mistake of ceding to Kim’s demands just to bring him to the negotiating table. Kim Jong-un will only view such a capitulation as weakness and will then demand more.
Biden therefore should remind Moon that the alliance must develop a new strategy that aims to break Kim’s adherence to his family’s diplomatic playbook. Biden and Moon should retain the existing strategic working group that brings together personnel from the U.S. State Department and South Korean Foreign Ministry, so the working group can craft and adopt the new strategy."
2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden
Asia Times · Michael Bassett · November 16, 2020
Surely some out of the box thinking from Michael Bassett. A "70 day speed battle" by President Trump? A US embassy Pyongyang?
3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N. Korea
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 16, 2020
I would be skeptical of this report. I think there are many other causes for skyrocketing prices in North Korea.
4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee
North Korea Leadership Watch · November 16, 2020
As I said reset the Kim watch countdown clock.
Is this really new? It seems senior leaders have been rehabilitated before and "returned to duty" so to speak. After hearing the gulag warden say to them in the "Cool Hand Luke" way" we are going to get your mind right." but I guess it is the expansion that is significant. Maybe he cannot afford to lose to many senior officials because he does not have a lot of competent "depth."
5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance
National Interest · Seong-hyon Lee · November 16, 2020
Yes and the US will want to work with allies and partners to build a top-level team for the competition with China. The new administration will be asking the ROK to participate just as the Trump administration did.
6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy
CNAS · Kristin Lee, Joshua Fitt, & Coby Goldberg · November 16, 2020
The 26-page report can be downloaded here.
I think this report was heavily influenced by the ideas Ambassador Lippert has been talking about for some years now. I suppose that is why he was asked to write the forward.
CNAS has a lot of influence with the incoming administration so I expect the ideas in this report will contribute to the Korea policy.
7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea
National Interest · Bruce W. Bennett · November 16, 2020
I concur with Dr. Bennett. We need to execute diplomacy from a position of strength that includes actions and not just words. However, I fear some of the carrots such as aid for COVID-19 may not be acceptable to Kim because it will expose his weaknesses and, like the promise of "a brighter future," it will also contribute to engagement with the population and information flow or (at least "spillover") to the Korean people in the North. We must see not only the sticks but also the carrots through the eye and mind of Kim Jong-Un. Franky, I do not think any form of humanitarian assistance is a carrot to Kim.
8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail
National Interest · Gordon G. Chang · November 16, 2020
I do believe another round of 6 party talks will be a failure. We cannot have any expectation that China and Russia will make positive contributions. In fact, unlike the 6 party talks when there was some slight cooperation and alignment on denuclearization with Kim Jong-Il facing an almost 5 against 1 ratio, a renewal of the 6 party talks will be at best a 3 against 3. China and Russia (as well as North Korea) will use such a venue to continue to conduct political warfare. On the other hand, if we recognize this fact and we are willing to execute a superior form of political warfare, there could be some use to the 6 party talks. But unless we are willing to aggressively conduct our own political warfare on multiple levels, I would advise against a renewal of the 6 party talks. They will in no way result in the denuclearization of the North.
9. Kim Jong-Un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden
National Interest · Jihwan Hwang · November 16, 2020
Yes, the coronavirus is a game changer and a condition unlike any other. Yes, I have made the argument that it could cause a humanitarian disaster on a scale equal to or greater than the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-96. However, starvation of the Korean people is one thing. A pandemic that could roar through the ranks of the elite and the military and the entire party leadership is quite different and unlike anything the Kim family regime has ever faced.
10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us
38 North · Editor’s Column · November 16, 2020
True. It is not always about us. Although North Korean messages can have multiple target audiences, they do not always include us. But I would say the majority of time such actions are messages for us.
And sometimes weapons tests are not meant as messages at all for domestic or external consumption. Sometimes tests are simply necessary to advance a weapons program and capability (though, after the capability is developed, tests may be used for messaging).
11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea
Star Advertiser · Dan Leaf · November 15, 2020
I recall many alliance and OPLAN briefings from then Colonel Leaf when he was the D/J3 in Korea.
12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM
Bloomberg · Anthony Capaccio · November 17, 2020
Excellent news. Go Navy!
13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed
China Daily · Ouyang Shijia · November 17, 2020
Can a trilateral FTA be good for our alliance partners and for our alliances?
14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 17, 2020
This is the standard Kim family regime playbook.
15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 17, 2020
Assigning blame is an important aspect of Korean culture. Of course, in the North it is taken to the extreme (though, in the South extreme blame happens, too… re: President Park and the Sewol ferry tragedy).
16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea
Dialy NK · Jeong Tae Joo · November 17, 2020
I wonder what the intelligence analysts at ROK/US CFC, ROK MND and JCS, INDPACOM, and in the DC beltway are assessing from all the ISR systems that are looking at the North?
17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-joong · November 17, 2020
Prepping for a Xi visit?
18. N.K. paper demands Japan’s apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities
Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · November 17, 2020
We should not forget that Japan only provided reparations to South Korea. Of course, the legitimacy of the regime requires external threats and enemies and there is no better enemy than Japan for domestic propaganda purposes.
19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · November 17, 2020
COVID-19 could be a greater threat than the South and the US. What if there is a widespread outbreak among the North Korean People's Army? What would the regime do if that happened?
20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 17, 2020
I wonder if they will discuss the former SECDEF's recommendations for a preemptive strike against the North's missiles.
2006 Time op-ed from Ash Carter and William Perry: “The Case for a Preemptive Strike on North Korea's Missiles”
My response for calls for a preemptive strike: “A Preemptive Strike on North Korea?”
21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings
Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo · November 17, 2020
Not again? Or I should ask, still have not paid them?
Not only is North Korea not a responsible member of the international community, it does not live up to acceptable business stands and practices.
22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden
National Interest · Minseon Ku · November 16, 2020
General Victor Hugo worked for the legendary Col. Edward Lansdale, the head of the Saigon Military Mission. Hugo noticed that everyone working for Lansdale was a lieutenant. He asked him why he only had lieutenants on his staff. Lansdale said “because when I ask them to do something, they don’t know they can’t do it.”
"Broadly speaking, the short words are the best, and the old words best of all."
- Sir Winston Churchill
"Arrogant and domineering people can't stand the least, lightest, faintest breath of criticism. It just kills them."
-Booth Tarkington