News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Among the insurrectionists
2. 41 minutes of fear: a video timeline from inside the Capitol siege
3. Misinformation dropped dramatically the week after Twitter banned Trump
4. FBI vetting Guard troops in DC amid fears of insider attack
5. Russia, Iran and China exploit Capitol Hill riot to push information operations, US intel concludes
6. TikTok picks up former US Sens. Lott and Breaux for post-Trump era
7. FBI moves on alleged members of extremist groups Oath Keepers, Three Percenters
8. Neglected history, forgotten lessons: the struggle for minds and wills relies on leadership first, organization second
9. China’s economy is growing faster now than before the coronavirus pandemic
10. What a Biden Administration means for multilateral diplomacy
11. One year, 400,000 coronavirus deaths: how the U.S. guaranteed its own failure
12. Two words that have enraged Beijing
13. Twitter, Facebook, and co: the growing problem of online radicalization
14. The Boogaloo Bois prepare for civil war
15. ‘It is a trap’: far-right freaks out about rallies it’s organized
1. Among the insurrectionists
New Yorker · Luke Mogelson · January 15, 2021
There is a 12-minute video of outside and inside our Capitol building during the insurrection at this link
Of course, video can be edited and manipulated, so we always have to take these things with a grain of salt. But I think the actions portrayed in this video are disgusting and shameful. The video shows a wide range of personality types from deliberate agitators, to radicalized extremists, to "true believers" (who think they are protecting our country and have some misguided romanticized notion that they are following in the footsteps of our founding fathers, but who have little understanding of our history and our Constitution which they claim they are defending), to useful idiots who have been manipulated, to simply idiots and mere sheeple following the crowd.
But part of this article’s conclusion makes me want to ask journalists to please interview the insurrections and ask the following questions:
1. If you are at war, how do you describe the end state you seek? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will be worth undertaking an insurrection (and it is not to "take back our country" or "defend our way of life")? I want to know how they are going to arrange our political environment, assuming they are successful with their insurrection.
2. What are the strategic assumptions under which they are operating and developing their strategy? Is it simply the big lie of #stopthesteal? Or is it the fear of the implementation of a socialist government? Or something else? Please identify all of your strategic assumptions.
3. How will violent actions accomplish the end state? What are the lines of effort necessary to reach the end state? Describe your theory of success or victory and what is the defeat mechanism for the opposition? Most importantly for the defeat mechanism, who is the opposition and what do you think they seek?
4. Is there a negotiating line of effort and, if so, with whom will you negotiate and what outcome do you seek through negotiations?
5. What is the organizational structure for this fight and how does command and control function?
2. 41 minutes of fear: a video timeline from inside the Capitol siege
Washington Post · Dalton Bennett et al · January 16, 2021
Here is the Washington Post's analysis of the insurrection. Please go to the link to view these useful graphics of the Capitol and the video.
Just so we are on the same sheet of music the definition of insurrection is "a violent uprising against an authority or government." And this might be helpful for some:
“Rebellion and insurrection refer specifically to acts of violence against the state or its officers. This distinguishes the crime from sedition, which is the organized incitement to rebellion or civil disorder against the authority of the state.” - "Rebellion or Insurrection" by FindLaw Staff.
3. Misinformation dropped dramatically the week after Twitter banned Trump
Washington Post · Elizabeth Dwoskin & Craig Timberg · January 16, 2021
Important analysis here from Zignal Labs. We need to have the conversation about platform responsibilities and potential regulation.
4. FBI vetting Guard troops in DC amid fears of insider attack
Associated Press · Lolita C. Baldor · January 18, 2021
If I were advising the opposition/insurrections, I would generate all kinds of misinformation about rank-and-file soldiers in the National Guard to try to create an overreaction with a widespread purge based on false information. This approach would undermine the trust within organizations and a real breakdown in morale, thus weakening these units and perhaps even making some ineffective. We had better be careful about how this vetting occurs and what actions are taken.
5. Russia, Iran and China exploit Capitol Hill riot to push information operations, US intel concludes
Cyber Scoop · Sean Lyngaas · January 16, 2021
The revisionist and rogue powers are having a field day.
6. TikTok picks up former US Sens. Lott and Breaux for post-Trump era
Foreign Lobby · Julian Pecquet · January 17, 2021
A lot of data at the link.
Is TikTok a security risk to the US?
7. FBI moves on alleged members of extremist groups Oath Keepers, Three Percenters
Washington Post · Devlin Barrett & Spencer S. Hsu · January 18, 2021
This will harden the resolve of these groups and their fringe supporters. They will be blaming the new administration and claiming a fascist crackdown. They will create new narratives focused on undermining the legitimacy of the new administration.
8. Neglected history, forgotten lessons: the struggle for minds and wills relies on leadership first, organization second
NSI · Matthew Armstrong · January 17, 2021
For anyone interested in information and influence operations, this presentation from Matt Armstrong is very much worth watching. Great historical insights. We have to face the struggle for minds and wills and cast aside the idea of winning hearts and minds. And the only way we will be successful is through leadership at the very top.
9. China’s economy is growing faster now than before the coronavirus pandemic
Washington Post · Gerry Shih · January 18, 2021
Beware of China's economic data and what it reports.
10. What a Biden Administration means for multilateral diplomacy
National Interest · Amitai Etzioni · January 18, 2021
Conclusion: in short, the Biden administration will do well to focus on the burning issues at home and shore up multilateralism. However, it will need to draw mainly on other instruments of foreign policy, which entail a fair degree of unilateralism, if it is to deal with the major international challenges the United States faces.
11. One year, 400,000 coronavirus deaths: how the U.S. guaranteed its own failure
New York Times · Sara Mervosh et al · January 17, 2021
Sober analysis. It did not have to be this way. Can we learn from this?
12. Two words that have enraged Beijing
News.com.au · Benedict Brook · January 17, 2021
Spoiler alert: "Indo Pacific."
13. Twitter, Facebook, and co: the growing problem of online radicalization
Spiegel · Markus Becker et al · January 15, 2021
14. The Boogaloo Bois prepare for civil war
Defense One · Michael Mooney · January 16, 2021
Again, I wish a journalist would interview members of these groups and ask them to share their end state, defeat mechanism, and theory of success or victory.
15. ‘It Is a Trap’: Far-Right Freaks Out About Rallies It’s Organized
Daily Beast · Will Sommer & Kelly, Weill · January 13, 2021
This could be good use of deceptive influence operations. If they can make these extremists think these rallies that are being organized online are traps, maybe it will serve as a deterrent. If authorities can conduct their own subversion efforts of these extremist groups to undermine trust and legitimacy, perhaps they will implode and no longer be viable as radicalizing organizations.
I Dream A World
I dream a world where man
No other man will scorn,
Where love will bless the earth
And peace its paths adorn
I dream a world where all
Will know sweet freedom's way,
Where greed no longer saps the soul
Nor avarice blights our day.
A world I dream where black or white,
Whatever race you be,
Will share the bounties of the earth
And every man is free,
Where wretchedness will hang its head
And joy, like a pearl,
Attends the needs of all mankind-
Of such I dream, my world!
-Langston Hughes
“I still have a dream, a dream deeply rooted in the American dream – one day this nation will rise up and live up to its creed, ‘We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal.’”
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.