News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. North Korean Party Congress Primer
2. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phone talks with Biegun
3. How Did Korea Lose Its Lead in Coronavirus Battle?
4. Plane used by Kim Jong Un seen leaving Pyongyang
5. Something Is Odd in North Korea's Foreign Exchange Markets
6. Japan-South Korea Relations and the Biden Factor
7. Coronavirus Crisis Pushes More Young Men into Military (South Korea)
8. S. Korea begins second round of production for Army's new command and control system
9. 73 percent of S. Koreans positive about Biden-Kim summit: poll
10. Tokyo urges revisiting N. Korea leaflets prohibition law
11. Seoul calls criticism over its leaflet ban 'interference'
12. Recent murders in Pyongyang may be tied to growing economic troubles
13. N. Korea tightens antivirus measures as deadline for '80-day campaign' nears
14. U.S. accuses China, Russia of trying to 'destabilize' region with Kadiz violations (South Korea)
15. It is inevitable that producing countries get vaccines first, says Moon
16. North Korea's military begins preliminary work for participation in Eighth Party Congress
17. BTS hit Dynamite on the radio in Beijing brings hope of further thaw in China-South Korea relations after 2016 missile row
18. Why North Korea's Mount Kumgang resort will be 'envied by the world'
19. South Korea Bans Balloons Carrying Leaflets to the North. Foreign Policy Problems Will Follow
20. Washington Post follows NYT in picking Seoul for Asia hub
1. North Korean Party Congress Primer
38 NORTH · December 22, 2020
Keep this handy as we approach the 8th Party Congress next month.
Key points:
“The WPK Charter stipulates that the Party Congress is convened to 1) review the work of the WPK Central Committee and the WPK Central Auditing Commission; 2) adopt, revise or supplement party programs and the Party Charter; 3) discuss and decide basic issues on party policies, strategies, and tactics; 4) elect the chairman of the WPK; and 5) elect the WPK Central Committee and the WPK Central Auditing Commission.
This sounds very dry, and much of it is uninteresting or at least terrifically opaque to outside observers. In the years of the Soviet bloc, with lively intra-bloc debates over ideology and policies, and especially in the thick of the Sino-Soviet split, the North's Congresses were fascinating to watch for the delicate dance North Korea felt forced to perform, not only in terms of external and domestic policies, but also protocol-who from the other communist countries was seated where, in what order of precedence. Those days are gone, and the upcoming Congress will not have to worry about fraternal party relations.”
In some ways, the most telling evidence on Pyongyang's thinking about foreign policy may actually emerge in what tack it takes on economic policy. If Kim lays out a strictly go-it-alone path, accompanied by a retreat from his new economic approaches of the past several years, it would likely suggest little interest or willingness to engage the US. Emphasis on the North's new "war deterrent" strength is likely to be a theme Kim sounds, but won't in itself mean a return to a more provocative stance.
2. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phone talks with Biegun
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 22, 2020
3. How Did Korea Lose Its Lead in Coronavirus Battle?
4. Plane used by Kim Jong Un seen leaving Pyongyang
upi.com· December 22, 2020
If we are seeing this, what is it the regime does not want us to see? The north is masterful at denial and deception.
5. Something Is Odd in North Korea's Foreign Exchange Markets
38 North · by William Brown · December 22, 2020
Few know as much about the north Korean economy as Bill Brown.
We need to pay attention to Bill's conclusion and ask if there is a repeat of 2009 how will it turn out for the regime?
Conclusion: "Kim may be getting ready for major currency changes in the upcoming Party Congress and a new five-year plan and wishes to create more trust in the won. He might even want to try to end the dollarization, a big headache for regime finances. The problem is the opposite could occur: As soon as the border opens or exchange restrictions ease, panic buying of foreign exchange might ensue, as it did in 2009, collapsing the won and bringing on hyperinflation. Kim's government has exerted much effort in stabilizing the monetary system, even pegging won to the dollar for a few years, to build trust and ward off speculation. With these uncertain movements, however, that success may suddenly be all undone."
6. Japan-South Korea Relations and the Biden Factor
cfr.org · by Yasuyo Sakata
The author proposes six ways to get the relationship back on track. I completely agree with this conclusion: "The U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK bilateral alliances, along with U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, are the anchor in Northeast Asia security and should be so beyond. But the downturn in Japan-South Korea diplomatic relations has weakened inter-alliance cooperation. The Biden administration can play a critical role at this juncture to restore Japan-South Korea strategic cooperation."
7.Coronavirus Crisis Pushes More Young Men into Military (South Korea)
english.chosun.com · December 22, 2020
Interesting 2d and 3d order effects of the pandemic. But this will not fix the demographic problem the ROK faces with the future pool of military ages makes for military service.
8. S. Korea begins second round of production for Army's new command and control system
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · December 23, 2020
This should be contributing to the capabilities and conditions necessary for OPCON transition. But what about the other 25% of the ROK ground forces?
9. 73 percent of S. Koreans positive about Biden-Kim summit: poll
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 23, 2020
This might seem like a shaping operation focused on the incoming Biden administration. I guess there are those who think a leader level summit is the silver bullet.
10. Tokyo urges revisiting N. Korea leaflets prohibition law
donga.com· December 22, 2020
This will not sway the Moon administration as it will not like being lectured by Japan. But the administration should realize it is going against the shared values of the community of democracies. It risks making South Korea an outlier and if it continues to enact laws that restrict basic human freedoms then it risks becoming pariah. And after the rights issue which should be paramount, the practical reason for overturning this "gag law" as Lord Alton terms it (or Kim Jo-jong law as others call it) is that it will not accomplish anything positive with regard to north Korea. Instead, the regime will double down on its blackmail diplomacy because South Korean appeasement shows the regime its political warfare strategy is achieving positive effects.
11. Seoul calls criticism over its leaflet ban 'interference'
donga.com· December 22, 2020
"lame and dishonorable."
A brutal critique from the Donga Ilbo editorial board: "The ruling party's response to the international criticism, which called it "interference of internal affairs," is not only lame but dishonorable. There is no need to separate internal from external affairs when it comes to protecting the universal value of mankind and the freedom of expression guaranteed by the Constitution. It is no different from dictatorships, such as North Korea and China, which have disregarded international criticism over its human rights abuse as "infringement on sovereignty," and the logic used by the past military regime of South Korea. It is such a contradictory response considering that today's democracy in South Korea was possible thanks to those "interference in internal affairs." No wonder why a diplomatic expert, who had served as a high-ranking official under the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations, criticized the government for making a "poor and flimsy" argument."
12. Recent murders in Pyongyang may be tied to growing economic troubles
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · December 23, 2020
I think this could be a significant indicator.
Excerpt: "There's rumors that there's no difference between dying because of COVID-19 or dying of hunger," the source said. "Give we're right before the start of the new year, [the recent incidents] may have been perpetrated by people prepared to do anything not to starve in the new year."
13. N. Korea tightens antivirus measures as deadline for '80-day campaign' nears
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 23, 2020
What will the 80 day campaign accomplish? And when will the real extent of the COVID pandemic inside north Korea be revealed?
14. U.S. accuses China, Russia of trying to 'destabilize' region with Kadiz violations (South Korea)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok
As we should: "The U.S. State Department on Tuesday publicly voiced support for its ally South Korea after more than a dozen Chinese and Russian aircraft violated the country's air defense identification zone, known as Kadiz, prompting Seoul to scramble its own jets in response."
Excerpts:
“In July 2019, three Russian planes entered Kadiz, and one of the planes veered into Korean sovereign airspace for almost 30 minutes - the first time Seoul's territorial airspace was violated since the 1950-53 Korean War.
Moscow denied any trespassing had occurred, though one of its military officials in Seoul - perhaps in an unauthorized move from his government - expressed regret over the incident which he attributed to mechanical error.
Military analysts say the repeated violations of Kadiz are closely linked to China's strategic efforts to exert its influence beyond its proximate waters in cooperation with Russia, in a quasi-alliance aimed at countering American influence in the region.”
15. It is inevitable that producing countries get vaccines first, says Moon
donga.com· December 23, 2020
I do not think this will placate the Korean people in the South.
16. North Korea's military begins preliminary work for participation in Eighth Party Congress
dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Joo· December 23, 2020
This is one of the most important points to understand about the north Korean People's Army (and the north Korean system in general): "That is to say, each unit is being carefully evaluated on not only whether it improved its fighting power, but also on its level of ideological commitment. Units that scored well reportedly received more slots to send participants to the Eighth Party Congress."
17. BTS hit Dynamite on the radio in Beijing brings hope of further thaw in China-South Korea relations after 2016 missile row
scmp.com · by Tamar Herman
18. Why North Korea's Mount Kumgang resort will be 'envied by the world'
scmp.com· by Mercedes Hutton
Or more correctly: the propaganda about the resort will be the envy of the world. No one does it better than the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department.
I wonder if we will soon see destruction of South Korean facilities at Kumgangsan just as we saw the South Korean liaison building partially destroyed at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The regime may be setting the conditions for another demand as it did with the "Kim Yo-jong law."
19. South Korea Bans Balloons Carrying Leaflets to the North. Foreign Policy Problems Will Follow
csis.org · by Robert R. King · December 22, 2020
Excerpts:
“Critics of the balloon ban legislation, in addition to Justice Michael Kirby of Australia, include Lord David Alton, an important human rights voice who is a member of the British House of Lords. Alton in a letter to the British foreign secretary said that "The purpose of this bill is to silence North Korean human rights and religious activities and voices from South Korean soil, in pursuit of the development of improved inter-Korean relations."
Unfortunately, the balloon legislation has become a partisan political issue in South Korea rather than a serious effort to deal with North Korean human rights abuses or the inter-Korean relationship. There is no assurance that even with the silencing of freedom of expression in banning balloons that the North Koreans will take any action to improve inter-Korean relations. The consequence, however, could be erosion of the South Korean relationship with the United States, which is important for the people of both countries. If previous experience gives us any expectation for the future, the North is more likely to blow up another building, even if balloon-carried information is halted, than it is to make a significant positive gesture toward reconciliation with the South.”
20. Washington Post follows NYT in picking Seoul for Asia hub
asia.nikkei.com · by Alex Fang · December 23, 2020
Seoul is a great city to live in. The buried lede is the Washington Post to develop a global 24 hour newsroom (or it is not so buried as it is mentioned in the first paragraph).
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"Waste no more time arguing about what a good man should be. Be one."
- Marcus Aurelius
"Keep your face to the sunshine and you can never see the shadow."
- Helen Keller
"No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare."
- James Madison