12/27/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration  (South Korea)

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

donga.com · December 26, 2020

So I have searched the CFR web site and communicated with Scott Snyder.  He is unaware of this report that he supposedly authored.  Note also Scott left the Center for US-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation some 10 years ago. I also searched the Asia Foundation web site and found nothing. Neither of us are sure about what report the Donga Ilbo article below is referencing.  But I stand by our recommendations for the incoming Biden administration. 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: David Maxwell <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Dec 26, 2020 at 8:30 AM
Subject: 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era
To:

I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link.  Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead.  Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment.  You will have to wait for publication for the details.  We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election.  Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.

“Words matter – and a president’s words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.”^[1] 

·      Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim’s determination to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")

·      Impose a “maximum pressure 2.0” campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)

·      Make human rights a priority:

·      Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un’s recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea: 

·      Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support: 

·      Strengthen allied military posture: 

·      Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:

·      Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

The Korea Times· by Do Je-hae · December 27, 2020

But what will 2021 bring?

Perhaps for Kim it is summits or nothing.

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · December 26, 2020

Something for us to look forward to while we make our guesses as to what might happen and what is Kim Jong-un's intent.

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Esther Chung · December 27, 2020

Thanks to and respect for our Dutch Allies.  We should be pleased that the Joongang Ilbo is publishing these retrospectives because it helps to reinforce the importance of the United Nations Command as well as our alliances.

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · December 27, 2020

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

SCMP · by David D. Lee · December 27, 2020

This is a major national security threat to South Korea.

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

asia.nikkei.com

All warfare is based on deception, perhaps particularly political warfare which of course is what Kim Jong-un is conducting.

More speculation on what the Biden administration strategy may be.

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