News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help
2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees
3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region
4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies (Korea)
5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence
6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets
7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups
8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll
9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth
10. Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency
11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets
12. North Korean stamps website appears
13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.
14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang
15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event
16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate
1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help
The National Interest · by Markus V. Garlauskas · December 30, 2020
From the former NIO for Korea. I certainly concur that Kim Jong-un will be probing and testing and trying to figure out how to get concessions (e.g., sanctions relief) from the new administration. The default course of action that is in the DNA of the regime is blackmail diplomacy. We must expect Kim to use provocations and increased tensions to try to gain political and economic concessions. If that happens we will not be surprised. If it does not happen we will be pleasantly surprised (though I fear if he does not practice blackmail diplomacy immediate surrounding the transition he will eventually revert to it when he does not get what he wants - and the other lesson we should learn is that if we give concessions Kim will deem that a success and continue to double down on blackmail diplomacy. Concessions will not change Kim's behavior in a positive way.
Conclusion: "Whether or not Kim Jong-un orders a major weapons test early in the Biden Administration’s tenure, North Korea will nevertheless be probing and testing, and probably seeking the right conditions to escalate to testing an ICBM at acceptable risk. It will not be a simple matter to organize international responses that dissuade Pyongyang from escalating further—particularly with all the other urgent issues the new Administration will be facing—but how the Biden Administration responds to North Korea’s probes will likely be crucial to shaping North Korea’s behavior in the next four years."
2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees
rfa.org· by Jeongeun Ji and Albert Hong
Again, and we cannot say this enough, China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.
3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region
dailynk.com· by Lee Sang Yong · December 30, 2020
It seems that the populations and resources control measures are more severe and restrictive than at any time in the history of the regime. I would like to read some analysis from escapees who have experienced border operations. I fear blow back is coming for the regime. We need to be on our toes.
4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies
The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · December 31, 2020
"To send an untrained army to war is to throw them away." - Confucius.
We have worked diligently to support diplomacy and the nuclear negotiations by adjusting ROK/US CFC training using the commander's "four dials." We have ended the "named exercises" and emphasized alliance training as Combined Command Post Training (CCPT). The ROK signed the Comprehensive Military Agreement which consisted of confidence building measures that the ROK faithfully implemented with virtually no reciprocity save for changes in the JSA and the removal of a number of guard posts. During all this time the nKPA remains forward deployed postured for offensive operations, has continued more than 20 short range ballistic and cruise missile and rocket launches and has sustained a military modernization program at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people in the north. On October 10th the regime showed off what may be a new ICBM and new SLBM along with the wide range of modernized conventional military equipment. And teh ROK has also allowed encouragement on training areas which has prevented sufficient live fire training by US forces in Korea. Given the north Korean threat and its continued hostile posture toward South Korea and the ROK/US Alliance along with the necessity to continue the OPCON transition process which requires, in part, combined training to reach FOC and then FMC, we must have a renewed emphasis on combined training at the theater level to ensure the readiness of the ROK/US CFC. Failure to do so will be throwing the ROK/US CFC away.
5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence
en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 31, 2020
I fear tough times are ahead for Korea.
6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 31, 2020
To borrow an adage from the LBJ era: "If you have lost Ban Ki-moon you have lost the country."
We should all remember these words from Secretary General Ban: "Human rights are not an internal affair but a universal value of humankind. The law has invited criticism from the international community that it is an 'anti-human rights act' that succumbed to North Korea's demands," Ban said in the speech. "I cannot help but feel miserable that our country is facing criticism from home and abroad due to the human rights issue. (South Korea) should rectify it with the right measures," he added, stressing his stint at the U.N. helm from 2007-2016 had focused on promoting human rights around the world."
7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020
Yes, this is a good and important step forward but I fear it is too little and too late and will not offset the criticism of the anti-leaflet/anti-human rights Kim Yo Jong law.
8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020
If they can get money to their relatives in the north we should be able to exploit that. Imagine if we could funnel money to "key communicators" in the north and to the right business people operating the markets. We could get enough money into north Korea and to the right people to really capitalize on the corruption by the regime. This would be an important line of effort for anyone considering a political warfare /unconventional warfare campaign in the north.
9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth
asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · December 30, 2020
And it is bad for Kim it could have catastrophic consequences for those around him. We had best be closely observing for the indications and warnings for regime instability.
I worry about Kim 's interpretation of how to "show big leadership."
10. Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency
dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 31, 2020
How do you earn foreign currency domestically when the regime is cracking down on all the use of all foreign currency? Perhaps the regime is demanding officials go out and find the currency among the civilian population.
Excerpt: "According to the source, he went to the provinces but did nothing, returning empty-handed after staying at a relative’s home. All the while, he complained, “How are we supposed to earn foreign currency domestically?” and “What kind of means do we have?” The authorities were not amused, however, and he was dragged off by the Ministry of State Security."
11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim
This should be a very important capability. But the ROK also has to invest in the fundamentals for OPCON transition. Every dollar spent on these advanced capabilities is a dollar not spent on the necessary C4I, counter fire, and missile defense, capabilities necessary for OPCON transition.
12. North Korean stamps website appears
North Korea Tech · by Martyn William · December 31, 2020
For all my friends who may be philatelists (I do not know who you are!)
13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · December 30, 2020
Logic says they should have cases. But the regime has done a good job of controlling the information.
14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020
15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event
Express · by Edward Browne · December 31, 2020
This is the demand from the regime for all Korean people in the north: ‘결사옹위’ – “which means to defend with one’s life.” It is all about defending Kim Jong-un and the regime with one's life.
16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate
entertainment.inquirer.net · by TJ Burgonio · December 29, 2020
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"The many are more incorruptible than the few; they are like the greater quantity of water which is less easily corrupted than a little."
- Aristotle
“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”
- Abraham Lincoln
“To think that because those who wield power in society wield in the end that of government, therefore it is of no use to attempt to influence the constitution of the government by acting on opinion, is to forget that opinion is itself one of the greatest active social forces. One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests.”
- John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government