News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says
2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks
3. Moon to phone Biden this week
4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea
5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse
6. 'Reactor plan' for North
7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP
8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row
9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea
10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era
11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea
12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade
13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)
14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19
15. Moon urges no more 'regressive' politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan
16. No way out
1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says
CNN · Yoonjung Seo & Paula Hancocks · February 1, 2021
Not what some want to hear but also that which most of us have long known.
Mr. Ryu's prescription is actually what the regime and those who advocate arms control negotiations and appeasement want to hear. Allow North Korea to be a nuclear power and negotiate arms control measures.
While I absolutely agree that North Korea has no intention of denuclearizing, I do not agree with the prescriptions. All they are doing is allowing North Korea to accrue advantages in pursuit of its long-term goal to dominate the peninsula. Until we understand that and operate based on that assumption, we will never devise a superior political warfare strategy that can be successful against North Korea over time.
2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 1, 2021
In the age of high-tech communications capabilities, I love to see the photo of a soldier using a TA-312 field telephone.
But on a serious note, this issue of negotiating with the North about combined ROK/US alliance exercises is going to create continued alliance friction. The ROK government and military need to clean this up. This is similar to the "three nos" President Moon allegedly agreed to with China over the THAAD issues (no more THAAD deployment, no ROK participating in integrated missile defense, and no trilateral ROK-US-Japan alliance). I stress allegedly, because the Moon administration denied this claim and these reports come from the Chinese, so it is obvious political warfare. The problem with the Chinese incident and now with the discussion about negotiating combined exercises with the North is that the ROK government should not be making third party agreements that affect the alliance and the US without consultation with the US. Of course, in the ROK’s defense, perhaps there have been consultations that have just not been made public. But I seriously doubt any US military leader and any well-informed political leader would acquiesce to a ROK proposal to negotiate combined exercises with the North. I guess we did not learn from the missteps in negotiating the Comprehensive Military Agreement.
3. Moon to phone Biden this week
Chosun Ilbo · Kim Ah-jin · February 1, 2021
I am sure some Koreans feel slighted about the timing (especially because Biden has already spoken with Suga). But the Blue House is correct that content matters over timing.
4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · February 1, 2021
Is this explanation sufficient? As we will see with the reporting on this, it is stirring up a political tempest in Korean domestic politics. But if the reports are true, this provides insight into the assumptions the Moon administration has been making about North Korea and that does not bode well for the ROK/US alliance.
I wonder if this issue could be a reason for the delay of the phone call between Moon and Biden. This and the exercise negotiation with North Korea are not subjects that should be discussed on the first phone call.
5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse
Chosun Ilbo · February 1, 2021
Worse and worse. This may drive domestic politics in South Korea for a while. But we need to be cognizant of the controversy as it affects North Korea policy and strategy.
6. 'Reactor plan' for North
Korea Times · February 1, 2021
Another negative view (and, frankly, I have not found any positive ones).
That said, the brainstorming and ideas explanation is plausible and even likely. The political opposition may be making more hay out of this than necessary. And I certainly would not want to stifle creative thinking in the future. But it would have been helpful if the documents also described the discussion about the idea, its relationship to history, and the prospects for it being effective (or more likely ineffective). If there was no analysis accompanying the idea, then that is problematic and appears to indicate there was some kind of support for it.
7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP
Dong-A Ilbo · Sung-Hwi Kang · February 1, 2021
Iran learns from the master (North Korea) on blackmail diplomacy. I wonder if the Kim regime is advising Iran on how to deal with South Korea.
8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row
Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 1, 2021
I guess this will be a big political row.
9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea
Korea Times · Yang Moo-jin · February 1, 2021
I am all for dialogue with North Korea— as long as it rests on a foundation of a superior political warfare strategy, which seeks an acceptable, durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.
A very nice letter from Professor Yang. However, I disagree with his analysis. If Kim does want to talk and have a "good relationship" with Biden, it is in order to support his political warfare strategy, which seeks to play the Biden and Moon administrations for sanctions relief, to keep his nuclear weapons, to split the ROK/US alliance, and to dominate the peninsula under his control for the survival of the Kim family regime. We must update our alliance assumptions about the nature and objectives of the regime.
10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era
Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · February 1, 2021
Unfortunately, I think the headline assessment is correct. The only way we will see a reduction in the friction is if Moon and Suga exercise courageous political leadership and pledge to put national security and national security ahead of the historical issues. They have to rise above their domestic politics and put the good of their nations first.
11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea
Los Angeles Daily News · Daniel Depetris · February 1, 2021
I absolutely agree that strategic assumptions must be examined and reassessed and tested and updated when facts are learned. I think Mr. Depetris should emphasize that the ROKG assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime need to be re-evaluated and that there needs to be sufficient alignment between ROK and US strategic assumptions about the North.
However, I would take some issue with his analysis. To follow the critique of his first assumption to its conclusion means that we have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and that there is no way we can achieve denuclearization. I find that flawed, because working to solve the "Korea question" will not only denuclearize the North. It will end the human rights abuses and the crimes against humanity begging commented against the Korean people in the North.
I also do not think any serious student of North Korea thinks Kim Jong-Un is unhinged. I think Biden's Korea team understands the nature of the Kim family regime (as much as any student of the North can) and will not recommend dealing with Kim as if he is irrational and unhinged. Kim is following his family playbook and following in his father's and grandfather's shoes.
I also do not think the Biden team thinks that economic pressure will cause Kim to denuclearize. We need to enforce sanctions to limit nuclear and missile development, proliferation, illicit activities and human rights abuses. Kim must be held accountable for malign actions, but I think Biden's Korea team knows the history of North Korean resilience and that, despite the terrible amount of suffering they impose (which are due more to Kim policies than to the sanctions themselves) sanctions alone will not cause Kim to denuclearize.
I find the analysis of all three of Mr. Depetris's assumptions not to be based in fact or understanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime or the likely knowledge and recommendations that will be put forth by Biden's Korea team.
The bottom line is I don't think these three assumptions belong to the Biden team.
12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · February 1, 2021
Kim cannot allow these draconian population and resources control measures to continue for too long. But part of his measures is to get control of foreign currency. If the exchange rates are climbing, it must mean the population is still using foreign currency.
13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)
Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021
14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19
Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · February 1, 2021
15. Moon urges no more ‘regressive’ politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan
Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · February 1, 2021
I don't think South Koran domestic politics are going to calm down any time soon.
16. No way out
Korea Times · John Burton · February 1, 2021
Humanitarian assistance is not a carrot for the Kim family regime. It will not bring the North to the negotiating table. And Kim has shown in recent years and months he is unwilling to accept offers from the US and the ROK.
But as the experts show Kim is more concerned with the threat from he Korean people in the North than he is about their welfare.
"A man is morally free when, in full possession of his living humanity, he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity."
- George Santayana
“Take the civil service out of government and the country will collapse. Take politics out of government and the country will flourish.”
- Abhijit Naskar
“To change a political system, the majority of the thinking citizens must unite, speak with one voice, and stand firm like one leg.”
- Dr. Ahmed Padia Binkatabana