Thanks to those who answered my SOS yesterday - but we could use more, much more... - and the coin really is a nice item - only 500 were struck and of those only 350 were set aside for our 2011 funding drive. If and when we produce another coin it will be of a new design. - Dave D.
Afghanistan
War 101: Don't Bring a Motorbike to a Tank Fight - S&S
Marines Move Into a Tough Neighborhood in Helmand - S&S
Attacks Kill 3 NATO Personnel in South Afghanistan - AP
Taliban Suspected of Burning Two Alive - BBC
Afghan Army Salary Theft Shows Fraud Widespread - AP
Combined Force Captures Haqqani Leader in Afghanistan - AFPS
Forces Kill Senior Taliban Leader in Baghlan Province - AFPS
It's Time to Get Out of Afghanistan - LAT opinion
Pakistan
Top Military Officials Worried About Militant Collaborators in Ranks - WP
Clinton Seeks Firm Action on Pakistan's Extremists - NYT
Clinton Exonerates Pakistan over Osama Bin Laden - BBC
Pakistan Rejects US Appeal, Plans to Review Drone Campaign - LAT
Clinton Visits Pakistan to Firm Up New Ties - WP
Clinton, Mullen Meet With Pakistani Leaders - AFPS
Clinton Urges Pakistan to Act Decisively Against Militancy - VOA
Clinton Calls on Pakistan to Do More Against Militants - Reuters
Clinton: Bin Laden Raid a Watershed for Pakistan - AP
Pakistan Shuts Down US 'Intelligence Fusion' Cells - LAT
Bomb Kills 8 Tribesmen in Northwest Pakistan - AP
Bomb Blast in NW Pakistan Kills Five - Reuters
Israel / Palestinians
Israel Waits and Worries Before Gaza Border Opening - NYT
Egypt Eases Gaza Border Blockade - BBC
Egypt Permanently Opens Gaza Border Crossing - AP
Prominent Israelis Urge Europeans to Support Palestinian Statehood Bid - VOA
Palestinian State Requires UN Council Support - AP
Abbas: Palestinians Have No Wish to Isolate Israel - Reuters
Canada Takes Strong Pro-Israel Line at G8 Summit - Reuters
Turkey: Israel Should Avoid Flotilla Face-off - AP
UN Chief Urges Governments to Discourage New Gaza Convoys - Reuters
Syria
Security Forces Restrained as Syrian Protests Spread - NYT
Syrian Troops Open Fire on Protesters - WP
Syrian Forces Fire on Protesters, At Least 8 Dead - VOA
Eight Killed in Syria Protests, World Pressure Grows - Reuters
Report: Iran Aiding Syrian Crackdown - WP
Libya
Russia Offers Help in Mediating Gadhafi's Exit But Says No Asylum - VOA
Russia Agrees to Try to Talk Qaddafi Into Leaving - NYT
Russia Offers to Mediate Ex-Ally Gadhafi's Exit - AP
As Goal Shifts in Libya, Time Constrains NATO - NYT analysis
Rare Daytime NATO Air Strike Rocks Tripoli - Reuters
Yemen
Yemen Edges Closer to Civil War - WP
Airstrikes Reported East of Yemen Capital - NYT
Yemen Tribal Loyalists Say Cease-Fire in Effect - VOA
Chaos, Fatal Battles Spread Outside Yemeni Capital - AP
Egypt
Egyptian Activists Stage 'Second Revolution' Rally - VOA
Egypt Protesters Gather for 'Second Revolution' - LAT
At a Protest In Cairo, One Group Is Missing - NYT
Iran
Tanker Sale to Iranian Company a Sore Spot for Israel - LAT
Report: Iran Aiding Syrian Crackdown - WP
Iran Says Nuclear Bomb Would Be 'Strategic Mistake' - Reuters
Middle East / North Africa
Saudi Arabia Scrambles to Limit Region's Upheaval - NYT
In Yemen and Syria, 25 Slain as Violence Continues - LAT
World Leaders Pledge $40 Billion to Bolster 'Arab Spring' - LAT
Aid Pledge by Group of 8 Seeks to Bolster Arab Democracy - NYT
Obama Seeks Polish Help on Arab Uprisings - AP
G8 Back $40 Billion Aid for Tunisia and Egypt - Reuters
Tunisia Says It May Delay Election on Technicality - Reuters
Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP
UN Convoy Targeted in Lebanon - WP
Roadside Bomb in Lebanon Wounds 6 UN Peacekeepers - AP
Italian UN Soldier Killed in Lebanon - Reuters
Bombing in Lebanon Adds Another Jolt to a Region in Upheaval - NYT
Anti-Baath Party Official Killed in Iraq - LAT
U.S. Department of Defense
Military Spent $32 b Since '95 on Abandoned Weapons Programs - WP
GAO: DOD Hasn't Fully Calculated Cost of Shifting Pacific Forces - S&S
USMC Head: Services Must Better Oversee Programs - DN
An Emotional Cycle as Soldiers Return Home - WP
Gates Offers Leadership Lessons to Naval Academy Grads - AFPS
Overhauled San Antonio Deemed Fit for Duty - VP
'Empire Challenge' Promotes Intelligence Interoperability - AFPS
Activists Seek Ban on Military Participation in Gay Weddings - WP
United States
Ties that bind Defense, State - Politico
Data Breach at Security Firm Linked to Attack on Lockheed - NYT
Senate Gadfly Who Isn't Shy About Buzzing - NYT
Making Legislative History, With Obama Nod and Stroke of Autopen - NYT
Torture is Wrong, But it May Work - WP opinion
Group of Eight
G8 Summit Ends with Harsh Words, Promises - VOA
Africa
Thousands Flee Violence in Sudan's Abyei Region - VOA
Sudan: Invasion of Abyei Raises Fears - WP
South Sudan Says 80,000 Flee After North Takes Abyei - Reuters
Another War in Sudan? - NYT editorial
Nigerian President Faces Security Challenges in New Term - VOA
Congo Officials: Rwanda Genocide Suspect Arrested - AP
Americas
Mexico Gang Violence Displaces Thousands in Michoacan - BBC
Mexico Law Aims to Reduce Risks to Migrants Passing Through - LAT
Criminal Deportees Worry Mexican Border Mayors - AP
Mexico Charges 12 Prison Officials in Jailbreak - AP
Ousted Leader's Return Ends Honduras' Long Crisis - AP
Salvadoran Army: Soldiers Tried to Steal Grenades - AP
Asia Pacific
China Police Seal Off Restive Inner Mongolia Towns - AP
Blast at Bus Company Kills 1 in Central China - AP
North Korea Frees American Held Since November, Reports Say - NYT
N. Korea Freed American Without Aid Promise, US Says - AP
North Korea Releases American as US Envoy Visits - Reuters
American Arrested for Insulting Thai King - NYT
Europe
Obama Meets With European Leaders In Poland - VOA
Obama to Wrap Up Tour of Europe - BBC
Moment of Reflection in Poland Turns to Current Events - NYT
Obama in Poland to Honor History, Boost Ties - AP
Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Paying Off, Obama Says - AFPS
Mladic Arrest Follows Serbia's Uneven Path to Break With Its Past - NYT
Serbia: Judge Says Mladic Fit Enough to Face Hague Trial - VOA
Serbia to Probe Mladic 'Network' - BBC
Mladic Could be Extradited as Early as Monday - AP
Lawyer Seeks Medical Evaluation of Mladic - NYT
Serb Court Says Mladic Fit for Genocide Trial - Reuters
Bosnia Tensions Live on Despite Mladic Capture - AP
Protest Planned Against Arrest of Accused War Criminal Mladic - VOA
Greek Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Austerity - NYT
Generals Questioned as Turkey's Pre-Poll Tensions Show - Reuters
South Asia
Comments
carl - this is the Yahoo article I was referencing in one of my comments:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110604/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan
There are over NINETY THOUSAND comments (as of now, 91,902). The first few pages all uniformly unhappy with US policy in the region....
I'm used to seeing a few hundred or a few thousand comments at the end of news articles.
What does it mean? Something? Nothing? I don't know.
Never seen anything like it, though.
So, I've never been in the military and I don't know Afghanistan at all. I chose to "pay attention" a few years ago because a friend's brother died in Iraq. I sort of made a promise and then it morphed into reading about the United States and Pakistan ("AfPak") because I think I understand how Americans and Indian-Americans and Pakistani-Americans (dislike hyphenating and PC multiculturalism) interact with one another; the good, the bad, and the ugly. I chose to pay attention to the beltway and to try and understand why DC thinks what it does about the region (using open source materials).
Well, in a layperson's way. I do have a day job and a life outside the afpak blog world.
I don't know where I am going with this.
Except, I think this is what happens when democracies interact with illiberal regimes over a long period of time. Our decision makers intrigue and think that they have to, er, lie to the public <em>for our own good</em>. The public then stops believing the decision makers.
Not healthy for a republic it seems to me....
Madhu:
I can't claim credit for the keeping an eye on Pak Army officers part. I read that somewhere on SWJ a few years ago.
It is interesting to me that 3 of the civilians who comment on this, you (I assume you are a civilian), Omar and I put a lot of import on human factors, emotions and frailties when trying to figure out why the inside the beltway crowd can't seem to see the sun in the sky. That is hugely important but most of the military and policy guys don't seem to think so. Maybe it is my misapprehension of the commentators.
You touched on one of those human factors, the supreme arrogance of the inside the beltway crowd as reflected in their belief that the average guy is too stupid to understand anything the least bit complicated. The average guy is pretty smart and he can see what is going on. More of our betters inside the beltway should read Kipling. Tommy knows.
<em>A small thing, training Pak Army officers in the US isn't so much because we can influence them to the good, I think it is more because we can get a line on the personalities and capabilities of people who may have influence in years to come.</em>
Excellent point, carl! Yet I would argue that at times our own institutions overestimate this sort of thing. Basically, thinking that the conversations taking place between high level diplomats and generals represent all of reality in that part of the world....
This is what happens when democracies work over long periods of time with essentially illiberal regimes.
<em>By way of observation, the outsized influence of the ISI captains and majors reminds me of something I've commented on before-the outsized influence of fanatic Japanese junior officers on the actions of Japan before WWII.</em>
The blogger zenpundit (Mark Safranski) has said something similar on his blog, I believe. Another interesting point.
Again, it is my belief that official Washington (civilian and military) is not yet ready to accept the degree to which we are dealing with a proxy war (mixed in with an insurgency). Sanctuaries and safe havens! Mega-eyeroll!
At least, no one is going to admit the reality in public. Officials think they are keeping the American people safe when they are only making everyone angrier. Seen comments at yahoo and the like regarding the subject of aid to Pakistan? Everyday people are not happy. In my entire life, I've never seen comments like that. They are more hardcore than most Indian websites I read. I have no idea if it represents reality, but it sure is something. We are supposed to be a republic, too....
Tsk, tsk.
Madhu:
Well stated. I especially like that part about a state being set up to grow non-state actors.
Things are looking bleak, the bleaker because of gross stupidity of our betters inside the beltway. Nope, strike that. It's not stupidity. It's pride. They staked out a position years ago that the Pak Army/ISI are our buddies and we can really honest to goodness influence them. For them to change their minds about that would be to admit that they were wrong and they were outsmarted by the whiskey drinkers in Pindi. They WILL NOT admit to that or any other failing. Better the republic fall, or in this case maybe ultimately nuclear war on the sub-continent, than the inside the beltway elites admit to any flaw. I would not underestimate the importance of prideful emotion on the part of American military, political and diplomatic elites in all of this.
By way of observation, the outsized influence of the ISI captains and majors reminds me of something I've commented on before-the outsized influence of fanatic Japanese junior officers on the actions of Japan before WWII. They drove things because they would kill people who disagreed with them and they got away with it. That didn't end well for Japan. It won't for Pakistan.
A small thing, training Pak Army officers in the US isn't so much because we can influence them to the good, I think it is more because we can get a line on the personalities and capabilities of people who may have influence in years to come.
Headline today is we will bug out of Afghanistan faster than planned. Not unexpected. It was predictable that OBL's death would result in a victory celebration and a dash for the exit. The Pak Army/ISI will take this as a victory they have engineered and get more enthusiastic about the jihadis and be more belligerent than ever. Things will get very violent, lots of dead people. But it will look good to American focus groups and the General sahibs will be happy so it's ok.
carl - don't know if you will return to this thread but with the indulgence of the SWJED, I'm going to repost a comment that I left at Abu Muqawama. It's long, but please bear with me:
"The Afghanistan-Pakistan portion of the CNAS conference is posted at the CSPAN website.
It was disconcerting to hear common canards repeated. Official Washington is not yet ready to grapple with the reality of a state that is set up to grow non-state actors, in my opinion. This is the key reality. The United States must go it alone. By that I don't mean disengagement, but that we can't really trust and must always verify. And getting involved in regional power politics (a new "Great Game") between the various players will not serve long term American interests, IMO. Yet our think tanks, State department, defence officials, and South Asian scholars continue on as if it were 1985....
Our sixty odd year history of alternating lots of carrots with a few sticks has shown to have little long term leverage on the overall trajectory of the country. In fact, periods of engagement have often made the situation worse for American interests. Our money made bombs, even when intended for the civil sector. What is different now? Official DC is excessively credulous and believes too much in its ability to change behaviors of entire countries.
From the blog "brownpundits":
But I will still say more: I think the number one problem is not the India obsession. The number one problem is that the India obsession is used by our army to sustain its parallel government. And that parallel govt is killing Pakistan. Not just directly, as in killing journalists "by mistake" ("how were we supposed to know he had a chest wound") but much more thoroughly by undermining the visible levers of administration and power and politics and creating a secret government of ISI operatives in every nook and cranny of the country.
.
Small anecdote: a friend is a successful and very popular doctor in a small town. There were rumors he might get a PPP ticket to run for the provincial assembly. The next day, he was visited by a captain from "intelligence" who wanted to know the details. A police officer said generals are scared of majors and colonels in "intelligence" . I am not kidding.
.
I dont think the army is going to give up this shadow govt without a fight.
.
http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/06/03/the-woes-of-an-ostrich-republic-a...
Questions:
1. Regarding CNAS policy prescriptions on continued civilian aid: How does aid money work in such a security state? Even if you build a school (whose curricula you have limited real life control over) you can't regulate from afar each aspect of such a shadowy security state. Even as you may improve one "on paper" metric, many people remain unable to say what they really think, thus further radicalizing the society.
2. Given that non-state actors are a part of internal power politics, why does the DC policy community continue to think "resolving Kashmir" or other border issues will prevent the Pakistani state compulsions to "grow" such groups? Fear of India is overused in DC policy circles in understanding the nature of the security state. Money and internal politics play an important role and Washingtonians of various stripes are always a good target for the skilled foreign diplomat, especially when their advice overlaps with American domestic impulses.
3. In a National Interest article, Dr. Christine Fair writes, "In an effort to persuade Pakistan to cease and desist, the 2009 Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (also known as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill) made security assistance dependent upon the U.S. secretary of states certification that Pakistan is working to eliminate these groups and cease state support of them, among other actions such as providing visibility into nuclear-proliferation networks, tightening money-laundering legislation and ensuring that the military does not undermine democracy in Pakistan. Astonishingly, Secretary Clinton gave that certification on March 18 of this year--even while plans to capture bin Laden were under way. Bogus certification is not an auspicious way to begin enforcing the new legislations efforts to deal with Pakistan-based security threats."
The United States has a long history of such bogus certifications, including during the time of the Pressler Amendment when Pakistan continued to receive some military assistance. Official Washington will look away again. It is happening now. There are many institutions in Washington that benefit from the current relationship with Pakistan - outsourced human intelligence, large contracts for various aid and defence programs - and their interests may prevent a clear eyed look at the realities. I don't mean that in a conspiratorial way.There are many patriots and brave people in Washington. I am talking about human nature and the tendency to see what we want to see.
You have previously stated that we lost a generation (Donald Rumsfeld made the same point on Greta Van Sustern - ahem) of Pakistani military officers because we cut relations and didn't have joint training.
But prior to that, many a Pakistani military officer studied in the states, including Gen. Kayani. It made no appreciable difference in the prioritization of strategic interests as far as I can see.
Indians will do what they think best, Pakistanis will do what they think best, and so on and so forth. Our leverages are magnified in our own eyes and we need to look at reality. In the post Cold War era, we must be more nimble and return to our 19th century roots. The old Cold War desire to pull entire countries into our court, regardless the nature of the regime, won't work in this era. Again, my opinion.
Interesting session at the conference. Glad to have seen a part of it on CSPAN."