News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Kim Jong-Un on brink: North Korea leader facing COUP from own sister
2. U.S. files first case against a company for violating North Korea sanctions
3. Report: U.S., South Korea militaries to conduct pared down drills
4. FAO warns of acute food shortage in N. Korea due to COVID-19
5. N.K. leader discusses 'war deterrent' at Central Military Commission meeting
6. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un guides enlarged meeting of WPK Central Military Commission
7. North Korean defector takes contrarian stance against bashing Kim
8. Pentagon official says U.S. 'routinely' reviews global force posture amid report on troop cut
9. Donald Trump and pulling U.S. forces out of South Korea: why cost sharing vs. burden sharing matters
10. Will North Korea's Kim deliver an 'October surprise' to Trump?
11. Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo-Jong solidifying 'position of ultimate power', may displace him as leader: Expert
12. N.K. paper touts N.K.-Russia ties on occasion of 20th anniv. of declaration on bilateral cooperation
1. Kim Jong-Un on brink: North Korea leader facing COUP from own sister
Express · by Ciaran McGrath · July 18, 2020
A "coup?" Maybe the Express just signed Kim Yo-Jong's "death warrant." Anybody who challenges Kim Jong-Un does not last long. There are no "#2's" in North Korea. But on a serious note, I would not put much stock in this report. Yes, she has power. Yes, she is making public statements on behalf of the regime. And she may be being groomed for possible succession. But a coup?
2. U.S. files first case against a company for violating North Korea sanctions
Wall Street Journal · by Aruna Viswanatha & Kate O'Keeffe · July 16, 2020
Counterfeiting cigarettes is one of the regime's important illicit money making activities. We need more of this type of legal action.
3. Report: U.S., South Korea militaries to conduct pared down drills
UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · July 17, 2020
"Scaled back" exercises have no effect on North Korea. They will not create space to support diplomacy. But with the threat of the coronavirus, the commanders are going to conduct a thorough risk analysis to determine if the exercise can be conducted and, if so, at what level. And then there is the assessment for OPCON transition. I do not think the conditions are sufficient to move ahead with the fully operational capability assessment. But we can see the Moon administration remains focused on time-based transition rather than conditions-based as both countries have agreed to.
4. FAO warns of acute food shortage in N. Korea due to COVID-19
KBS World Radio · by KBS World Radio · July 18, 2020
The regime's policy decisions are responsible for food shortages and the suffering of the Korean people in the North.
5. N.K. leader discusses 'war deterrent' at Central Military Commission meeting
Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · July 19, 2020
Yes, there should be no doubt they are talking about nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, this message is meant for all the engagers and appeasers who make excuses for the regime - the regime has to defend itself from the hostile policies of the US. If only the US would end the hostile policies, the North would negotiate and denuclearize. Also, we should never forget that the regime considers the North a "revolutionary nation" and its constitution calls for completing the socialist revolution over the entire Korean peninsula and ridding it of foreign influence and interference. All the engagers and appeasers must never forget what are the true objectives of the regime. They are NOT to denuclearize and live in peace and harmony with the South.
6. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Guides Enlarged Meeting of WPK Central Military Commission
KCNA Watch · by KCNA.kp · July 19, 2020
Here is the KCNA report of the "enlarged meeting" to the Central Military Commission. We should remember that without a strong military supporting the regime, Kim Jong-Un cannot survive. On the other hand, we should be under no illusion that Kim Jong-Un appears to be in complete control of the military at the current time. As I have read many of these reports over the years, one thing always strikes me as common in all these meetings: the priority always seems to be on ideological education. I don't know, but after these years of ideological education, you would think they would have gotten the message by now. Perhaps all the North Korean generals and officers are simply "slow learners" (note my attempt at humor).
7. North Korean defector takes contrarian stance against bashing Kim
Nikkei Asian Review · by Steven Borowiec · July 17, 2020
This is an important aspect of the right themes and messages. Messages are more effective with accurate information from the outside world that do not bash Kim but objectively describe what he is doing in terms of his poor leadership and abusing the human rights of the Korean people living in the North. If the escapee/defectors merely mirror image the hostile North Korean propaganda, the Korean people in the North will discount it just as they discount the propaganda from their own party's Propaganda and Agitation Department. More sophisticated and nuanced messages will have a greater effect. One of the most effective messages of the K-Drama, Crash Landing on You, (as told to me by some Korean escapees) is that it portrayed the Korean people in the North, to include the Army, as normal human beings and not the caricatures the North paints of those in the South. One escapee told me the regime has never produced anything in the media as showing the South in any kind of positive light. They have never heard anything positive about the South come from the regime (as a side note – this is why Kim Jong-Un miscalculated in September 2018 when he allowed President Moon Jae-In to speak to the Korean people in Pyongyang. He countered all North Korean propaganda as he came across as a smart and compassionate man and not the puppet controlled by the US).
But one of the important aspects of this article is that it illustrates how little Koreans in the South understand their brothers and sisters in the North and the biases they have. This is of course troubling.
8. Pentagon official says U.S. 'routinely' reviews global force posture amid report on troop cut
Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · July 19, 2020
Yes, of course it does. But I would like to know the answers to a few questions: now that we have learned that options were provided to POTUS in March by SECDEF, we really should ask what was the question that led to these options? Was it to bring home X number of or all troops? And, if so, how, when, where? Or was it the right question of how do we optimize our overseas military presence to support US National Security objectives and provide force presence and projection and strategic agility to do so? The question(s) drives the answer(s) or options presented. National Security professionals know the right questions to ask and answer. Did we get it right? Are we doing what is best for US National Security?
Would it be good to alter the US force posture in Korea?
It could be good if the alliance was not in turmoil as it is now. We should do this: conduct a comprehensive strategic review of ROK/US combined forces on the peninsula to 1) determine the optimal size of the US presence to contribute to deterrence, 2) support the defense plans, 3) support the OPCON transition process, and 4) provide the US with the necessary strategic agility in Asia. The outcome of such a review will strengthen allied military posture in South Korea and, whether the number of US troops is increased or decreased, the force will be "right-sized" for the mission and to meet US strategic objectives.
My fear is the only question the Pentagon was asked was: how can we get US troops off the Korean Peninsula (e.g. how many and how fast?). We should not forget what the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board quoted Senator Ben Sasse saying yesterday.
And we should not forget this anecdote from Governor Larry Hogan's Washington Post op-ed, which does not help the alliance. I fear this is what framed the questions to the Pentagon.
9. Donald Trump and pulling U.S. forces out of South Korea: why cost sharing vs. burden sharing matters
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · July 18, 2020
Another ill-informed opinion piece (well, he does get South Korea defense spending right: it is increasing, but he should have reminded everyone it is about 2.7% of GDP and rising, and that it is higher than any other US NATO ally).
But what is troubling to me is the implication that Korea is interested not in defending itself but in remaining dependent on the US instead. I wonder why we have been pursuing OPCON transition for so many years? I wonder why we may soon have a South Korean general officer in command of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command? Why have we had a program over the past 17 years of developing South Korean independent warfighting capabilities? And, even as the South increases its defense spending (and buys quite a bit of US military equipment), we still demand it pays more for burden sharing. There are only two things South Korea is dependent upon the US for: 1) extended nuclear deterrence and 2) conventional deterrence. We should never forget that, according to the regime leadership itself, the only thing that prevents a resumption of hostilities in order for the regime to accomplish its revolutionary objectives is the presence of US forces. That is the single most important deterrence factor. Yes, the North is an existential threat to the South (though I believe the latter would win the war on its own), but it is in the US national interest to prevent a war on the Korean peninsula and it is the presence of US troops (and the demonstration of strategic reassurance and strategic resolve) that makes the biggest contribution to deterrence.
10. Will North Korea's Kim deliver an 'October surprise' to Trump?
The Japan Times · by Jesse Johnson · July 19, 2020
Will he or won't he? Let's start a pool. Yes or no is one category and then what kind? A provocation or a summit?
We should think about what kind of "surprise" he might conduct beyond all the obvious ones and the ones from the past. What has he not done and what have we not thought of?
But we should also consider this: the more we talk about a surprise, the less likely it will be a surprise. When he does something people will say, "See I told you so." Or "That is not a surprise at all. We expected something like this."
We are actually helping to inoculate the South Korea and US publics by attacking the strategy of the October surprise. We are exposing it so it will not be a surprise. And a message we should transmit to the regime is that, regardless of what kind of surprise it tries to execute, it will have no effect on Trump or the outcome of the election because, short of war, the American people are not likely to have their opinions (or votes) altered by North Korean actions or rhetoric. North Korea is just not that important to the American voter in an election. The best October surprise Kim could do for himself would probably be to do nothing. But given his narcissist sociopathic or psychopathic personality he probably cannot help himself. He will operate under the continued delusion that he is a player in the international community and that he can create effects on the great powers (he only can if we let him… if we fall for his long con and political warfare with Juche characteristics).
11. Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong solidifying 'position of ultimate power', may displace him as leader: expert
MEAWW · by Pritha Paul · July 18, 2020
For the Korea hands who are leadership experts: has Kim Yo-Jong been given any apparent power with regards to the military? She has assumed a number of roles that exercise or give her access to various levers of power. But I have missed any indication that she has been given any kind of authority over the military (though perhaps the order to destroy the liaison office is one indication of her power and, of course, her party positions have power over the military because the party controls the military). But so far in the reports on the enlarged central military commission meeting yesterday we have not seen her name mentioned. Was it not enlarged enough to include her? Was she even present? Maybe she was and it has not been reported.
12. N.K. paper touts N.K.-Russia ties on occasion of 20th anniv. of declaration on bilateral cooperation
Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · July 19, 2020
But I bet the Kim regime misses the old Soviet Union and longs for the "good old days."
"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; action for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way."
-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew."
- Abraham Lincoln, December 1862