News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea
2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall
3. Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars
4. Techie Software Soldier Spy
5. Were they lost students or inept spies for China?
6. The Joint Force – SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition
7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory
8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen
9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress
10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times
11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India
12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'
13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin
14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history
15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs
16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict
17. Falling into the adaptation gap
18. FBI & CISA issue another warning about 2020 U.S. election disinformation
19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns
20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war
21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer
1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea
Washington Post · Anna Fifield · September 28, 2020
Oh, the irony. For years, everyone (including China) has been calling for North Korea to make Chinese style reforms. In reality China has been adopting North Korean population and resources control measures.
2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall
Politico · Daniel Lippman, Bryan Bender, & Lara Seligman · September 28, 2020
Negotiating hardball?
3. Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars
Newsweek · by Matthew Impelli · September 28, 2020
I did not know we had such a doctrine.
4. Techie Software Soldier Spy
New York Magazine · by Sharon Weinberger · September 28, 2020
This is quite an expose. As I recall, the DCGS-A versus Palantir debate was that the comparison was apples and oranges and Palantir could not do what DCGS-A was supposed to do. Of course, as it turned out, it seems DCGS-A could not do what it was touted to do either. I also recall that Palantir could have been integrated into DCSGS-A, but the Army supposedly did not want to pay the price of the contract Palantir demanded.
5. Were They Lost Students or Inept Spies for China?
Foreign Policy · by Eric Fish · September 28, 2020
I think one of the concepts of the thousand grains of sand is that the grains of sand are not professionally trained. That is supposed to allow them to exploit a "lost student" defense.
6. The Joint Force–SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition
Marine Corps Gazette · by LtCol Brandon Turner & Maj Paul Bailey · January, 2020
7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory
CNA · by Jonathan Schroden · September, 2020
We have wrestled with this for a long time. The DOD definition is probably the best there is (or is at least sufficient to describe Special Operations).
But the US use of special operations is very broad and, in fact may, be too broad for a single overarching theory. This paper focuses on risk in special operations, which is a useful method and is critically important, but I am not sure if it is sufficient for a special operations theory. As an aside, I consider three areas of risk versus John's two: risk to the mission, risk to the force, and political risk.
My criticism is that this report pays insufficient attention to unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs (though he correctly notes missions and activities can change over time and are insufficient for establishing an overarching theory).
It uses the standard of the Bin Laden for assessing the theory.
The report analyzes Admiral McRaven's theory of special operations, which he rightly calls a theory of direct action (or, as some would say, the hyper conventional direct action raid), as well as those of Roger Spulak, Harry Yarger, Richard Rubright, and Thomas Searle (a common theme here is that the Joint Special Operations University is doing some of the leading research and publication on theories of special operations). He does devote nearly three pages to William “Dave” Driver's and Bruce E. DeFeyter's NPS thesis on a theory of unconventional warfare ,which is described as an attempt to mirror Admiral McRaven's theories.
I would have recommended he include Mark Boyatt's work on SF and UW and "through, with, and by." (of which COL Boyatt is the father).
My thinking somewhat parallels that of Schroden, though I have not put forth a theory of special operations. The difference between us is that, while he focuses on the hyper conventional direct raid as the foundation for a special operation theory (or at least the standard with which to assess it), I focus on UW as the foundational aspect of special operations.
My description of special operations includes the two SOF "trinities" and the no fail mission requirement with the foundation for the trinities being "UW thinking."
UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.
UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) complex political-military problems.
UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of the population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it includes an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP/CA.
The Two SOF "Trinities":
1. Irregular Warfare
2. Unconventional Warfare
3. Support to Political Warfare
The Comparative advantage of SOF:
1. Governance
2. Influence
3. Support to indigenous forces and populations
With exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions
My recommendation for a follow-on report would be to compare Jonathan's risk construct to selected UW and FID focused operations. I think his risk analysis is an important contribution to thinking about SOF theory.
8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen
World Crunch · by Ajai Shukla · by September 28, 2020
9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress
Defense News · by Bradley Bowman & Maj. Scott Adamson · September 28, 2020
Another continuing resolution to defend America. I would quibble with the title and say it is America that deserves timely funding of the military from Congress.
10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times
AMN · by News Desk · September 29, 2020
Will the Greeks allow nuclear weapons on their soil? This will be quite a move. I have not heard anything about this.
11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India
News 18 · by Shouvik Das · September 29, 2020
Though not surprising, we should be very concerned with China providing cyber capabilities to hostile countries (and perhaps to non-state actors as well).
12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'
DW · by Deutsche Well · September 29, 2020
Another way I think we can describe the security challenge of the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin
Newsweek · by Jacob Jarvis · September 29, 2020
What is this? A competition? Trump's three nominations to Biden's one? I am afraid the Nobel Peace Prize may be losing its legitimacy.
14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history
NBC News · by Kevin Collier · September 28, 2020
No attribution but North Korea's past ransomware acts are mentioned in the article.
15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs
Defense One · by Steven Pifer · September 28, 2020
The title says it all. A scathing critique of the administration's arms control efforts.
16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict
Divergent Options · by William Freer · September 28, 2020
Again, the challenge we face in the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
17. Falling into the Adaptation Gap
War On the Rocks · by David Barno and Nora Bensahel · September 29, 2020
18. FBI & CISA Issue Another Warning About 2020 U.S. Election Disinformation
Lawfare · by Tia Sewell · September 28, 2020
Here is a link to yesterday's new PSA form the FBI and CISA.
There should be no question how our adversaries are trying to undermine our democratic republic and the legitimacy of our election process. That should unify us but instead it plays right into their hands because we remain divided on this issue.
19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns
UPI · by Ed Adamczyk · September 28, 2020
An important question.
20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war
American Military News · by Ryan Morgan · September 28, 2020
21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer
Gettysburg Times · September 28, 2020
The loss of another great American. I was proud to serve with him at USASOC.
“Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you!"
- Pericles
"Virtue is a state of war, and to live in it we have always to combat with ourselves.”
- Jean-Jacques Rousseau
"The door for intelligence work opened for me when I undertook my first secret mission while on my honeymoon in Japan in 1919. The United States Government asked me to take a two-month trip to Siberia to report on the anti-Bolshevik movement in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. Well, it wasn't your usual honeymoon, but Mrs. Donovan was very understanding. The mission was successful and opened doors to many more missions for the government. I was heading down the intelligence path and I was loving it”
- Wild Bill Donovan