Future Conflict: Battle After Afghanistan by Nicholas Stuart, The Age.
In April this year the Times Literary Supplement carried an extraordinary review of a book written by Emile Simpson, a young British officer recently returned from Afghanistan. Historian Michael Howard compared his book, War from the Ground Up to the seminal military bible On War by Carl von Clausewitz. As Howard had translated that classic, this created an enormous buzz.
Perhaps there is only room for one such sensation each year because David Kilcullen's book should have caused a similar stir. This is the mature work of someone who's thought long and hard about conflict. Out on the Mountains deserves to be read (and argued about) by anyone who is interested in the war or the shape of the modern world…
Comments
<blockquote>Caerus Associates partnered with the Center for Complex Operations at the National Defense University to co-edit a PRISM journal supplemental dedicated to Syria. The forthcoming supplemental includes essays by regional scholars, former diplomats, and conflict experts.</blockquote>
http://caerusassociates.com/ideas/syria-supplemental-for-prism-journal/
<blockquote>The National Defense University (NDU) is the premier center for Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) and is under the direction of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. The University's main campus is on Fort Lesley J. McNair in Washington, D.C. The Joint Forces Staff College is located in Norfolk, Va.</blockquote>
http://www.ndu.edu/info/about_ndu.cfm
I'm just "playin'" intellectually, that's all. It's the quality of the work that counts in the end.
This was posted today on SWJ--instead of writing about the future maybe one should clearly explain the past failure.
Iraq’s Anbar Province Once Again Becoming A Center For Insurgent Operations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iraq’s Anbar province used to be one of the centers of the insurgency, and it might be becoming one again. Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha recently told the press that 40% of the governorate was under the control of militants. Today there is a free flow of fighters back and forth across the Syrian border. Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is targeting the security forces and local politicians. More importantly, it is attempting to gain control of territory as there have been several assaults upon towns and cities this year. This has occurred despite the Iraqi security forces (ISF) announcing one operation after another. Its tactics of raids and retreats have proven largely ineffective, and the mass arrests that have taken place are counterproductive. Violence is picking up across many parts of Iraq, but Anbar is one specific area where insurgents are attempting to establish a permanent presence.
Madhu---have been reading your various comments of the last few years--no you are not being managed-although you do challenge one nicely.
My beef since 2005 is that we have had so many talking heads about what works and does not work and no one has simply taken the time to fully understand AQ's strategy and when everyone jumped on COIN it was as if all the lessons learned in UW and counter UW from world wide insurgencies/revolutions since 1933 did not matter.
On Dave Maxwell's SWJ recent article on UW---I gave it some thought an searched the web for a case study on the Algerian Revolution 1954 to 1962 conducted by a SF organization called SORO which had provided for years all case studies for deploying A teams---kind of like the current concept of Human Terrain Teams BUT only better at half the cost.
Interesting read though 149 pages long---the constant comments on Islam tends to make's one perk up and start noticing a trend which started in 1954 in the ME and somehow never got noticed by the talking heads.
Keep up your comments-I do learn something from them.
JMO
<blockquote>President Dwight Eisenhower’s 1961 Farewell Address includes one of the most quoted phrases in political rhetoric. He warned “against the acquisition of influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial-complex, whose growing influence could have “grave implications … [to] the very structure of our society.” Ike’s warning remains relevant today, but much less heeded has been the speech’s second warning. Ike noted that the government’s need for ever more advanced defense technologies would mean a growing reliance on science and scientific advisors, noting:
<em>Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades. . . . A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.</em>
That trend, he noted, might change the nature of the “free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery.” Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity.” Economic and power considerations might influence scientific research and the reporting of its findings, leading to the “domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money” – a trend that should be “gravely … regarded.” Thus, while we should continue to hold “scientific research and discovery in respect . . . we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.” [emphases added]</blockquote>
http://www.americanexperiment.org/publications/commentaries/eisenhower%…
I have my own hang-ups about all of this growing up in an academic environment so I'm primed to see the problems with a scientific-technological elite, perhaps too much. I am skeptical by nature full-stop, and skeptical by experience, especially toward a technocracy. Never been in the military. Fell into this site by accident. It's been an education.
(I saw your comments on other threads. People are listening, especially interested civilians like me. It's always good to share experiences. When I first started commenting I had no idea who to listen to, or even HOW to listen. Given the distance between civilian and military in our society we need a healthy conversation. I need it, anyway. I never quite know what to believe. I always feel like I'm being "managed".)
I am still intrigued that those who did not "get it" in Iraq somehow "get it" for the future.
Kilcullen and co left behind a 300K plus security/army force and now ISIL is resurgent in ways that look like 2007 all over again. What does that say for COIN?
So exactly how is it possible that now the same people are predicting the future of warfare?
<blockquote>David Kilcullen, based in Noetic’s US office, was recently interviewed by Kerry O’Brien, presenter of The 7.30 Report at the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) on 1 July 2010. David is a counterinsurgency expert who shared his thoughts and discussed strategic and political issues about the war in Afghanistan. For more information about this interview, please visit http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2010/s2942613.htm.</blockquote>
http://noeticgroup.com/us/news-and-publications/article/?id=kilcullen-o…
If you want to be as much fun as I am, do the same sort of search for all those testifying about Afghanistan. My favorite are the retired military/intelligence/State types that worked with the "brave Mujahideen" in Afghanistan, or allied nations if you see what I mean, during the 80's.
Mythology is good business.
And who is ever going to call anyone out? People need jobs, they have a passion for their work, we need good people in the system too, I'm not complaining as much as it seems that I am. How to do this and still be a decent person? I have no idea.
<blockquote>Scamming people, after all, costs time and money. Herley notes that everyone who responds to a scamming ploy “requires a large amount of interaction.” The worst thing that can happen, from the scammer’s point of view, is that a savvy person starts responding and toying with the scammer. (Teddy Wayne, a writer for The Awl, recently conducted an amusing three-month Facebook correspondence with a man from Malaysia pretending to be a beautiful woman — this is a nightmare for scammers!) Better to keep the e-mails predictable and tired. That way only the most unsuspecting suckers respond.
At any rate, the scammers must be doing something right. In 2009, these “advanced-fee fraud” efforts managed to pry $9.3 billion out of unwitting victims around the world. And the business is growing at a 5 percent rate each year — especially as more people in developing countries get connected to the Internet.</blockquote>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/06/22/why-nigerian…
<blockquote>Noetic conducted a detailed review of planning and assessment processes as they apply to theater campaign plans, reviewing current guidance and methodologies to identify best practices. This was supplemented with a comprehensive series of structured interviews to bring together COCOM perspectives and share lessons learned. Noetic then developed a series of products to share the findings of its research. The first of these was a Theater Campaign Plan Planning and Assessment Framework comprised of a comprehensive review of practices to support the effective development and implementation of COCOM theater campaign plans. Noetic also prepared a briefing package to support the dissemination and implementation of its findings. Additionally, Noetic provided two papers, the first making recommendations on improving and enhancing the personnel resources at COCOMs and the second providing a review of technology requirements and available solutions to facilitate theater campaign plans.</blockquote>
http://noeticgroup.com/us/case-studies/?case-study=theater-campaign-pla…
There might well have been some usefulness to the exercise but that language is unadulterated BS.
On the other hand, it does explain why "your" young people write the way that they write (says the worst writer on the internet....)
<blockquote>We founded Caerus Associates in January 2010. At the depth of the recession, launching a start-up with no investors, no clients and no staff, we expected a very tough time. With generous help from our partner Noetic Group, we got started and then boot-strapped the whole operation, building from one client to another, creating a snow-ball effect. Today, less than two years later, Caerus has annual revenue just under $10m, zero debt, a multi-year backlog, a permanent team of 20 people and another 50 consultants and field staff, offices in three continents, and field programs in Afghanistan and Africa.</blockquote>
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/09/19/dr-david-kilcullen-o…
<blockquote>Seven of the world’s ten fastest growing economies are now on the continent. In 2012, foreign direct investment increased by 5 percent to a record $50bn, bucking a global dip of 18 percent. Following a vanguard of Africa- focused investment firms, private equity brand names such as KKR and the Carlyle Group are now embracing the continent. The the list of international businesses moving into or scaling up their operations in Africa is growing rapidly. Last year, Walmart spent $2.5bn buying into a fast growing consumer market across sub-Saharan Africa.</blockquote>
http://www.forbes.com/sites/skollworldforum/2013/09/22/doing-well-in-af…
Funny how pioneering intellectuals often seem to move in herds. Perhaps it's the observation of trends that does it.