SIGAR Releases its Forty-fifth Quarterly Report to Congress
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) office provides independent and objective oversight of the $132.55 billion the U.S. has provided to implement reconstruction programs in Afghanistan. SIGAR's core value of excellence, independence, and integrity guide its audits, investigations, and inspections.
Key Points
-- Civilian casualties in Afghanistan rose significantly during the quarter due to a high number of terrorist and insurgent attacks prior to the presidential elections that included the use of improved explosive devices (IEDs). The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported a record high number of civilian casualties from July through September (4,313), a 42% increase from the same period last year. Resolute Support (RS) reported a 39% increase in civilian casualties from June-September, compared to the same period in 2018.
-- UNAMA attributed the majority of civilian casualties from January 1 to September 30 to antigovernment elements (62%, or 5,117 casualties). 46% of total civilian casualties during this period were attributed to the Taliban (3,823), an increase of 31% from the same period in 2018. The number of civilian casualties attributed to the Taliban in July, August, and September more than tripled compared to the same period last year.
-- During the first nine months of 2019, RS reported 7,260 civilian casualties, a 6% increase from the same period in 2018. July and September were the most violent months with 1,437 and 1,292 casualties, respectively.
-- This quarter's RS civilian casualty figures shifted the provinces with the highest civilian casualties this year (when adjusted for population). Through the first nine months of 2019, Zabul, Logar, and Nangarhar were the most dangerous for civilians (last quarter they were Helmand, Nuristan, and Nangarhar).
-- During July, August, and September, UNAMA documented a 72% increase in civilian casualties caused by IEDs compared to the same period in 2018.
-- Enemy violence in Afghanistan increased this summer compared to last summer, enemy-initiated attack (EIA) data shows. Resolute Support reported a 19% increase in EIA (7,183) this quarter (June 1-August 31) compared to the same period last year, and an 11% increase from the preceding three months (March 1-May 31).
-- Roughly half (49%) of the 3,495 EIA this quarter were "effective" -- resulting in ANDSF, Coalition, or civilian casualties. Effective enemy-initiated attacks (EEIA) increased 10% this quarter compared to the same period in 2018 and 24% compared to last quarter.
-- Political-violence and protest incidents in Afghanistan increased 61% this quarter (June 1-August 31) compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The significant year-on-year change was driven mainly by an increase in the number of recorded battles during the quarter: 2,530 this year, compared to 1,579 recorded during the same period last year.
-- ACLED data also show that the geographic distribution of recorded incidents has shifted slightly compared to the same period in 2018. Between January 1 and August 31, Helmand Province had the most incidents (935), followed by Kandahar (773), Ghazni (770), Nangarhar (465), and Zabul (434). During the same period in 2018, Nangarhar had the most incidents (853), followed by Ghazni (536), Helmand (447), Uruzgan (329), and Faryab (275).
-- ANDSF total casualties increased by approximately 5% this quarter (June 1-August 31) compared to the same period last year, RS reports. The Command also reports that about 60% of ANDSF casualties during this period occurred during defensive operations.
-- In the first nine months of 2019, the Afghan Special Security Forces conducted 2,531 ground operations, outpacing the total for all of 2018 (2,365), according to NATO Special Operations Component Command-Afghanistan (NSOCC-A).
-- US Air Forces Central Command reported that September 2019 saw more munitions released (948) during U.S. and Coalition air missions than in any month since October 2010. The number of weapons released between January and September (5,431) increased by 4% compared to the same period last year.
-- According to USFOR-A, the ANDSF experienced 30 insider attacks from June 1-August 31 -- nearly double the number reported last quarter. While there have been three fewer attacks this year compared to the same period in 2018, there have been 56 more ANDSF casualties.
-- RS reported an increase of 933 women in the ANDSF ranks since last quarter (721 in the ANP and 212 in the ANA) and an increase of about 1,900 women since the same period last year. There are now 6,395 women in the ANDSF.
-- Given slowing revenue growth, the Afghan government may have difficulty meeting its revenue target for its current fiscal year. At its current rate of collection, revenue would fall short of the government's stated target by AFN 19.3 billion ($250.9 million). Data from the first eight months (and preliminary data from month nine) appear to show contracting sustainable domestic revenues.
Full Report: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2019-10-30qr.pdf
Quarterly Report by section: https://www.sigar.mil/quarterlyreports/index.aspx?SSR=6