On Syria: Thank You, Russia! By Stephen Kinzer, Boston Globe
Once again, Moscow has shown itself better able to make strategic choices than we are. Russia is not an ideal partner for the United States, but sometimes its interests align with ours. In those cases, we should drop our Cold War hostility and work with Russia. The best place to start is Syria.
American policy toward Syria was misbegotten from the start of the current conflict five years ago. By immediately adopting the hardest possible line—“Assad must go”—we removed any incentive for opposition groups to negotiate for peaceful change. That helped propel Syria into its bloody nightmare.
Russia, which has suffered repeated terror attacks from Islamic fanatics, is threatened by the chaos and ungoverned space that now defines Syria. So are we. Russia’s policy should be ours: prevent the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, craft a new regime that would include Assad or his supporters, and then work for a cease-fire.
The fall of Assad would create a catastrophic power vacuum like those that have turned Iraq and Libya into terrorist havens. This would be bad for the United States, and even worse for Russia and Iran. We should recognize this common interest, and work with countries that want what we want…
Comments
Dayuhan...if you had been following us over on the Syrian 2016 thread you would be seeing things like this being placed in the comments..in some aspects this thread is far better informed than the Obama WH right now as it attempts to carry a side of the Syrian rebellion that US MSM is strangely not covering and the WH is totally attempting to ignore.
When CNN tried their hand at it this week with their onsite Assad sponsored PR trip even they got it wrong and had to be corrected by social media......
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
CrowBat....can you confirm as things appear to be bit chaotic right now in the Aleppo area as it looks like FSA is actually holding their own against just about everyone except say the Germans.....
It is 'chaotic', sort of.
This is so because there's lots of re-shuffling and re-organizations.
But, 'first things first' as they say....
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JAN - i.e. Jabhat an-Nusra - is WITHDRAWING from Azaz pocket. It's positions are taken over by FSyA, JAM, JAS, and AAS.
This means that Turkey decided to take out wind out of all of BS-legends launched by Kurds and their US-paid Jaysh at-Thuwwar allies, by Russians etc., that they're 'attacking JAN, al-Qaida, Daesh etc. in Azaz'. In a matter of 1-2 days, there will be not a single JAN left in this part of Syria.
All of the JAN Jihadists are moved (via Turkey, of course) down to Bab as-Salma border crossing to Idlib and then to southern Aleppo province (Khan Thouman area, between others).
For example, it's already known that ex-JAN positions in NE corner of the Azaz pocket, on the frontlines to the Daesh, were already taken over by the Jabhat ash-Shaymia (Sham Front). Similarly, ex-JAN positions on the southern side of the Azaz pocket were taken over by this new coalition of Ahrar, FSyA and other groups (more about this below).
There seems to be a similar - yet reciprocial - movement of insurgents out of Idlib and southern Aleppo (via Turkey, of course) into the Azaz pocket.
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Secondly...
There is de-facto a demise of the 'traditional' insurgent structure in northern Syria 'by umbrella organizations'. I.e. instead of 'Free Syrian Army' (FSyA), 'Ahrar ash-Sham' (AAS), 'Islamic Front' (IF) etc. thee are now four coalitions there, all consisting of mix of units from all four of these umbrella organizations.
Frankly (as always), I've got no clear idea how do they decide to re-group, but usual scheme seems to be that some ex-Ahrar or ex-IF commander, perhaps a unit too, is put in charge of mix of anything between 5 and 8 FSyA units, 2-3 AAS units etc., and 'voila', there's a new coalition.
The result is similar to that of JAN's withdrawal from the Azaz pocket: a de-facto demise of the IF, and quasi-disappearance of the AAS in this part of Syria. Instead, there are now four alliances usually consisting of Islamist commanders in charge of moderate Islamists and FSyA groups.
Sure, their 'power brokers' (well, at least those from the AAS) are still around, but nobody can actually complain any more Turkey is supporting a 'bunch of Islamists, extremists and Jihadists' there. On the contrary, majority of components of these new alliances are actually 'ex'-FSyA, some even US-vetted...
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Thirdly...
In the light of all these reports, alone the idea that the JAS - which was one of first such 'new-modell armies' of insurgents in this part of Syria - has given up Mare'a to the JAT (i.e. SDF) without any fighting appears rather dubious to me.
No doubt, since the SDF/JAT has captured Shaykh Isa, today, supply links between Azaz and Mare'a appear very exposed. Indeed, 'easy to cut off'. But, Mare'a is not only easy to defend, but also well-fortified. If the JAS withdraws from there, the YPG/SDF would have it easy to rapidly advance into the back of other insurgent groups holding the frontline to the Daesh, further north.
So, unless we get a 100% confirmation that the JAT has entered Mare'a, I would say such reports are actually based on defection of one of minor local FSyA groups, the 'Abu Wallid Battalion', to the JAT - plus re-deployment of several minor Islamist groups (like AAS' Safwa Islamiya, Quwwa al-Markaziya and Osood at-Tawheed) from Mare'a to Azaz.
OK, can deny this with the 'fall' of Mare'a now (I think).
JAT's 'entry' into the town has been denied, i.e. confirmed as 'wrong'. It didn't happen: the town is still in JAS hands. JAT is now publishing excuses like, 'we had a deal to enter peacefully but external parties obstructed agreement' and similar nonsense.
Dayuhan....you would get a feel for the TOTAL Russian destruction of anything not controlled by Assad and you would fully understand the terms genocide, mass killings, war crimes, crimes against humanity and the use of cluster munitions and thermobarbic weapons against civilians both war crimes as well...If you joined us over on the tread...all commenters are welcome and I even occasionally post Assad's side to show the info war side of the conflict....
But you don't come over and post as well.....so you do not know much of the Syrian "story".....
BUT and here is the big BUT....when the article is so close to the current "running narrative" being carried the entire Russian info war media campaign for Syria and it "blatantly" ignores three critical points that even CNN carries currently in their so called fair and balanced reporting...THEN the BUT kicks in and the article takes on a totally different slant.
BUT since you are not familiar with nor well versed in the use of Russian disinformation nor it's current running propaganda narratives...be extremely careful with this article.
It is designed for people such as yourself and it "speaks to you" if you noticed did it not??
THEN ask the question WHO is the individual to rate a Globe "editorial" comment, DOES he normally get carried as a MSM commenter anywhere else and WHAT is his agenda behind the comment....AND then go back to the article I posted here on the hiring of the ex US disinformation types by Sputnik...THEN go to the Sputnik website and tell me they publish a "fair and balanced view".....
BUT and here is the really big BUT for you Dayuhan....the author and I both graduated from the same university Boston, and I being in the overseas program for IR had nothing but Boston University professors all of whom were Socialists and or members of the US Communist Party (early 70s) who were open about it and bluntly would tell the students...do not attempt to cosy up to me with what you think I want to hear..have a position and defend it and I am neutral enough to grade you on that defence....needless to say the classes were rather "vocal and loud" but massively fair and a true IR learning environment.
BTW..BU was noted for this circle of like thinkers in the late 60s early 70s as well as others from Harvard and the Cambridge MA area BUT you could have not known that.
I know the circle the author travels in and if you checked and or had read a number of his books and articles...this article is no different in tenor to what he has published in the past...
BUT here is the catch..it is really to close to the Russian narrative..question is ....is it the true political belief of the author or "paid for"...the closeness to the info war "narrative" leads me to believe the latter.
AND do not tell me that authors are not "paid for" articles to be used in positioning arguments....sometimes not so much for money as for the "exposure" for the CV.......in this case the "Globe".
An expression of an opinion that diverges from your own is not "disinformation", it is simply an expression of an opinion that diverges from your own. So what?
Violent suppression of political dissent does not necessarily constitute "genocide", and I've heard no credible argument suggesting that the violence in Syria now constitutes "genocide" by accepted definition. Even it it was, one could and should question whether a unilateral US response would be appropriate. The US must not get sucked into the role of playing global police force.
Russia DepFM Gatilov: Assad could have prevented the escalation if he had taken democratic reforms in time
https://www.rt.com/news/332477-assad...gc9Jh8.twitter …
BUYERS remorse......????
"Civil war...not genocide"....interesting in that you even quoted the Rome definition of "genocide"....and Rome (actually reread it)did not say just how the people are to be killed did it?
"Civil war"...that is interesting in that some would challenge and state it is an "open rebellion" by 72% of the majority of the civil society against a 50 year long dictatorship by an minority just the reverse of what we are seeing in Iraq where we the US threw out a minority and replaced that with a "democratically" elected "majority".
Now I might now tend to agree with you that in fact the Sunni minority in Iraq is conducting an insurgent style "civil war" as per definition of what a civil war really is.......as they actually opposite to Syrians formerly organized into a number of political parties and participated in a number of elections and where actually in the government contrary to Assad's rule.
Next time get your definitions correct.
Rebellion:
open, organized, and armed resistance to one's government or ruler. 2. resistance to or defiance of any authority, control, or tradition. 3. the act of rebelling.
Civil war:
a war between political factions or regions within the same country.
You will if you understand the Syrian developments know that in 2011 there was not a single organized political faction as Assad "always won over 98% of the elections" and the Sunni's were never ever fully allowed to organize by the Assad security forces..in fact the first demos were started and led by the Syrian students...much as in the Ukrainian Maidan.
BTW...the majority of those students were arrested by the Assad security forces were raped, tortured and killed in numerous military prisons and or they simply "disappeared"...thousands of them and that is not "genocide"?
You really do need to read up on the Syria of 2011 to 2016.
BUT let's get back to the article which is a solid piece of proRussian disinformation.
People aren't being killed because they are Sunni, they are being killed because they oppose Assad. That's Civil War, not genocide.
It doesn't really matter, because we all know that the US would only intervene to stop genocide if doing so was consistent with perceived US interests. Do you see us rushing to the aid of the Rohingya?
American reluctance to commit force in Syria has nothing to do with Russia's awkward and ineffective information campaign. It's a simple recognition that there is no compelling US interest at stake, no clear and achievable policy goal, no viable allies or proxies on the ground, and an extraordinarily low probability of any positive outcome to intervention.
You want a concise statement of a policy goal? How about this?
Stay. The f**k. Out.
How about a concise statement of what specific goals your proposed US intervention should strive to achieve?
Dayuhan ...the perfect example of your lack of knowledge on Syria...the country is Arabic and 72% Sunni.....the 100K or so "disappeared" after being picked up by Assad security forces were Sunni, the gas attack that Obama never responded to was carried out on Sunni's, the use of cluster munitions on civilians is on Sunni's, the 400K being starved to death right now are Sunni, the deliberate flattening of Sunni villages and towns by the RuAf where there is no fighting and creating even more refugees and higher civilian loses, the deliberate RuAF targeting/destruction of critical Sunni civilian infrastructure, hospitals, schools and mosques AND the UNCHR itself has now determined that starvation is a war crime as is the use of barrel bombs...all directed against Sunni's....?
LET's not even get into the "ethnic cleansing" of Arab Sunni areas by the "transnational shia jihadists" IE Hezbollah.....OR Iraqi Shia militias (30 odd groups) THAT should be in Iraq fighting IS BUT are not (AND they are armed and trained by the US).
"Enough specific actions against a national/ethnical or religious group" for you to fulfill the Rome Status....??????????????
I will tear apart this US article in the coming day or so and exactly show you how it is virtually line for line disinformation that I as an American have seen many Americans even US Congressmen parrot for Putin info war against the US.
I posted early on the Ukrainian 2014 thread a inforgraphic chart of those US individuals and groups that have and still do receive funding from Moscow....and if you read the article posted here of the US former info war defense contractors being hired by Putin AND they hold US security clearnaces....check it out.
BTW..I had thought that by posting this explosive chart it would have provoked some kind of SWJ reader responses....nothing came so either they silently agreed or had no experience and simply did not respond.....
Suggest before I tear apart the article you read up on the Russian use of the 6Ds in their disinformation and or propaganda info war.....Deflect, Distort, Distract, Dismay all used to create Doubt and Distrust....easy actually when you fully understand what the 6Ds mean and how they are used.
Then we can debate this article in far greater detail....as it is the perfect example of Russian disinformation using the 6Ds hidden by an American writer designed for US consumption.
Interestingly there is not a single mention of Iranian involvement in Syria via their transnational shia jihadists who act much like IS does towards the US....for the Boston Globe to miss this single critical point is interesting for US MSM...
Especially since a number of MA military personnel have been killed or maimed by Iraqi Hezbollah EFPs and KH is now fighting in Syria nor does the Globe mention the killings of the Marines in Lebanon by Hezbollah also fighting inside Syria.
There is not a single mention of the sheer numbers of Syrians being killed by deliberate Russian air strikes and or the use of starvation to kill thousands of Syrians, nor do they mention the continued use of barrel bombs and chemical bombs by Assad which taken together amounts to genocide and war crimes against humanity.
Nor is there any mention of the FSA who is actually fighting IS whereas they suggestion to work with Putin who now is just as complicit in the Assad genocide is strange all together for the Globe....
No wonder many in the US do not fully understand what the heck is going on inside Syria if this is the quality of the work by the Globe that is supposedly trying to educate their readership.......it is almost like "let's accept genocide" as Putin is "worth it"..due to his "clear visions" and we the US are stupid for not seeing that "clear vision"?
To be more blunt...this is about as close as one can get to a Russian disinformation info warfare article and is striking similar in tone to what is produced daily by "Russia Today"...or even worse Sputnik the 100% Russian owned info war media outlet......
Suggest the editors of the Globe study the 6Ds of Russian information warfare before releasing articles pertaining to Syria.