Strategic Aggression: Conditions That Could Trigger Aggressive Military Action by the People's Republic of China by Major Corey Landry, US Army School of Advanced Military Studies.
Excerpt: “China's military doctrine is clearly focused on local and regional conflicts.... Though it has aggressive leaders within the PLA, they answer to the less aggressive leaders of the CCP. While the possibility exists for aggressive leadership to emerge in China, such transition of power would not occur without warning.... Combined with its reliance on international trade and manufacturing, China's foreign debt holdings provide serious financial incentive to avoid conflict. China's economy, while slowing its pace of growth, is still expanding at a rate much higher than that of developed countries, and the quality of life of its citizens continues to rapidly improve. It is also expanding its access to foreign resources with little resistance from the international community. China is also an active participant in all major international organizations, and one of only five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.”
H/T Tom Ricks at FP’s Best Defense.