The Afghan Illusion - Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan and James M. Dubik, Washington Post opinion.
While some are discussing whether the US presence in Afghanistan should be maintained, the Obama administration does not appear to be seriously considering withdrawal. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and others have instead proposed expanding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) first and raising US force levels only if that approach is unsuccessful. This option holds out hope of success without the need to send more US troops, but we believe it is illusory.
Withdrawal now would allow Afghanistan to again become a haven for terrorists. It would destabilize Pakistan by giving refuge to terrorist and insurgent groups attacking Islamabad and by strengthening the forces within the Pakistani government and security forces that continue to support the Taliban as a hedging strategy against precisely such an American retreat. Pursuing an offshore strategy of surgical strikes using aircraft and Special Forces units would destabilize Pakistan for the same reasons. Further, if such a strategy could work against al-Qaeda, the commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal - the most accomplished practitioner of Special Forces counterterrorism campaigns - would be advocating it. Instead, he is advocating counterinsurgency...
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