'Tremendous Uncertainty' As Competing Presidential Oaths Plunge Afghanistan Deeper Into Crisis
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Afghanistan has descended into a full-blown political crisis after the two main contenders in a bitterly disputed presidential election -- each claiming victory -- were sworn in as president in rival ceremonies.
President Ashraf Ghani, the officially declared winner of the vote, was sworn in for a second term by the country's chief justice in Kabul on March 9. Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive officer after a power-sharing deal settled another election dispute five years ago, took an oath administered by a senior cleric in his own inauguration ceremony nearby at the same time.
The unprecedented move has plunged the country into further uncertainty, with experts warning that the dispute could descend into violence and derail a historic deal to end fighting between the United States and fundamentalist Taliban militants.
As part of that agreement, direct peace talks between the Western-backed Kabul government and the Taliban were scheduled to begin on March 10. But the political crisis in Kabul has thrown those plans into disarray.
"The country has entered uncharted waters, and any move could potentially further exacerbate the situation," said Ali Adili, a researcher at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent think tank in Kabul.
'Critical Juncture'
The dispute stems from the results of a September 28 election that was marred by allegations of vote-rigging, technical problems, and militant attacks.
Election authorities on February 19 declared Ghani the winner with some 51 percent of the vote -- narrowly giving him an outright win over Abdullah, who was named runner-up with around 40 percent. But Abdullah slammed the result as a "coup" and vowed to form a parallel government.
"The two leaders seem to be responding to their supporters' emotions by sticking to their positions, but it is bringing about tremendous uncertainty," Adili said. "There seems to be a treacherous combination of malfunction of institutions and processes, brinkmanship, and emotionalism on the part of the leaders and their supporters at a very critical juncture."
U.S. officials have attempted to mediate a resolution to the election standoff. Under U.S. pressure, Ghani and Abdullah agreed to postpone their swearing-in ceremonies for two weeks until March 9.
U.S. envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad held marathon talks with both men until the early hours of March 9, but appears to have failed.
In 2014, a bitter, fraud-marred presidential election pushed Afghanistan to the brink of civil war before U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry brokered a power-sharing deal between Ghani and Abdullah, the two leading candidates. The agreement created the new position of chief executive officer, given to Abdullah to ease his opposition to the election results.
"Today's events in Kabul seem to have unfolded in precisely the way that the U.S. had hoped could be avoided, as evidenced by Khalilzad's last-minute, late-night diplomacy between Ghani and Abdullah," said Andrew Watkins, a senior analyst for Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group.
"In spite of Khalilzad's efforts to mediate, the U.S. largely stuck to its word: It had clearly messaged to Kabul that it would not intervene to the same degree that Kerry did after 2014's similarly troubled election."
Without a compromise, it would be difficult to break the current political stalemate, Adili said. He said several compromises had been pushed by Abdullah's team and others who have rejected the election results.
One would be to annul those results declaring Ghani the winner and continue with the current government until intra-Afghan negotiations with the Taliban produce a political settlement.
Another possibility could be to accommodate those outside the current government within a new power-sharing framework.
Watkins said the worst-case scenario would be "if the crisis, which has remained largely rhetorical and political up to this point, progressed toward civil unrest or open acts of violence."
Complicating Intra-Afghan Talks
The political infighting in Kabul has threatened to unravel the U.S.-Taliban deal signed on February 29 to pave the way for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in what could be a major step toward ending the nearly 19-year war.
As part of the deal, the Taliban is obliged to launch direct negotiations with the Kabul government and other Afghans about a permanent cease-fire and a power-sharing agreement.
But there are fears that the feud in Kabul could further complicate the naming of a delegation to negotiate with the militant group, a process already mired in delays and disputes.
Watkins said the political drama illustrated how challenging it might prove to bring Afghan political figures and stakeholders together to sit across the table from the Taliban.
"The peace process's next steps may well demand the sort of compromises that Afghanistan's political elite have not been able to reach -- today, or very often in the past five years," he said.
U.S. 'Strongly' Opposes Creation Of Parallel Afghan Government
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says Washington is for a "unified and sovereign Afghanistan" and opposes "any action to establish a parallel government," hours after the country's president and his main election rival held dual and competing inauguration ceremonies on March 9.
"We strongly oppose any action to establish a parallel government and any use of force to resolve political differences," Pompeo said in a statement.
He also condemned a terror attack in Kabul the same day for which the Islamic State militant group took responsibility. Four rockets landed close to the presidential palace when President Ashraf Ghani was being sworn in for his second term in office, Khaama Press news agency reported.
In a separate move, Washington has called for a March 10 vote at the UN Security Council vote to endorse its accord with the Taliban that is meant to pave the way for peace to be achieved in the nearly two-decade war, diplomats said as reported by AFP.
The peace deal was sealed on February 29 and a U.S. official told AP on March 9 that hundreds of U.S. soldiers are now heading out of Afghanistan.
With the peace deal, the official said the departing U.S. soldiers will not be replaced.
That means the United States is now effectively moving ahead with an initial reduction of U.S. troops in Afghanistan from about 13,000 to 8,600 soldiers.
The long-term plan is for the United States to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan within 14 months if security conditions are met.
Meanwhile, Ghani's main political rival, Afghanistan's former Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, held his own inauguration ceremony on March 9 -- insisting that he won the country's September 2019 presidential election.
Hundreds of guests attended the inauguration ceremonies of both teams at palaces located next to each other in central Kabul, after last-ditch efforts to mediate an end to the standoff between Ghani and Abdullah failed to resolve the crisis.
U.S. envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad and U.S. General Scott Miller, the commander of the U.S.-led international force in Afghanistan, attended Ghani’s inauguration as the sound of rocket fire echoed in the background.
"We have seen bigger attacks. Don't be afraid of just two blasts," Ghani said, as he raised his hands to calm the crowd around him, which included many foreign dignitaries.
The Islamic State (IS) extremist group later claimed responsibility for the rocket attack that targeted the inauguration. There were no reports of any injuries.
"Caliphate soldiers targeted the inauguration of the tyrant Ashraf Ghani," by firing 10 rockets near the presidential palace in Kabul, IS said in a statement released on social media.
Hours before the parallel ceremonies, Abdullah wrote on Twitter that "no one should have underestimated our commitment to genuine democracy."
"Invalidation of all fraudulent votes is the way out," Abdullah said.
The dispute stems from the official results of Afghanistan’s bitterly contested September 28 presidential election.
Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) declared on February 19 that Ghani won reelection with just over 50 percent of the vote.
According to the official vote count, Abdullah finished in second place with about 39 percent of the first-round vote.
But Abdullah rejects the official results, saying the election was marred by widespread fraud.
Abdullah has declared himself the winner and has vowed to form his own government.
The standoff has triggered a political crisis that has threatened to spill over into violence and derail a historic peace deal between the United States and the Taliban.
The dispute over the presidency also has left Kabul’s allies and ordinary Afghans deeply worried about the future of the country as it tries to strike a peace deal with Taliban militants. Washington previously asked both sides to delay the ceremonies.
Political analyst Atta Noori told AFP that the dispute would "gravely affect the government's position in the upcoming intra-Afghan talks."
"Unity is the only way [forward] if they want to win on the negotiating table," Noori said.
The Taliban, meanwhile, says talks with Afghanistan’s government scheduled to start on March 10 are unlikely to take place on time because of the two rivals' plans to conduct the parallel ceremonies.
Abdullah had been named as Afghanistan's chief executive officer in 2014 under a U.S.-brokered power-sharing agreement that created a fragile national unity government to resolve a political crisis over Abdullah's allegations of widespread fraud in the 2014 presidential election.
Under that deal, Ghani became president within a national unity government while the new office of chief executive officer was created for Abdullah.