Why Pentagon Priorities Will Soon Change No Matter Who Becomes President by Loren Thompson, Forbes
Military planners and defense investors have begun focusing on the fact that President Obama is in his final year as the nation’s commander in chief. Next year, a new president will start putting his or her imprint on the nation’s defense posture. However, new leaders seldom have an immediate impact on Pentagon priorities unless something happens overseas, because the makeup of the joint force reflects political compromises arrived at over many years. Besides, it typically takes over a decade to field new weapons — longer than two presidential terms.
Nonetheless, I can predict with high confidence that sometime soon, Pentagon priorities will change markedly. Perhaps policymakers will decide they need to spend more money on defending the homeland against nuclear attack. Or maybe they will reverse the gradual unraveling of the Army that has occurred on Obama’s watch. I can’t predict precisely what shifts will occur, but I can state with near certainty that big change is coming.
How do I know this? Because during the 65 years I have been alive, such shifts have happened nearly a dozen times — in other words, roughly once every five years. When these shifts occur, the political system always responds by spending more money on dealing with the emergent threat, even if it means slashing other military priorities. The advent of new media such as Twitter has probably amplified this effect. Look at how random murders committed by two self-styled jihadists in California had the system in an uproar for months…