NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea by Admiral James Stavridis (Ret), Foreign Policy
… Hopefully, there can be high-level diplomatic discussions at the United Nations, European Union, and other international organizations that will lead to full territorial integrity of the sovereign state of Ukraine. And the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet has to be sensibly resolved, as do important trading and energy relations. The hope is that cooler heads will prevail.
However, hope is not a strategy, and therefore further action should be considered. Planning is vital to laying out options to decision makers, and NATO's military planners should have a busy weekend at least.
This is a classic case of a situation where the United States should be working in lock step with our allies around the world, but especially our European friends and most notably the 28 members of the NATO alliance…
Comments
Since when has "doing nothing" ever been on the cards? Darn near everyone has been meddling non-stop since the end of the Cold War.
No one has handled this moment well. Not the Russians. Not the post Cold War expansionist NATOists. Not even the EU, although there is more sense <em>there</em> than in the current administration with its R2P and liberal interventionist DC children-masquerading-as-adults.
<blockquote>Putin spoke next and, to everyone's surprise, launched a diatribe against the United States. He claimed the United States had used its uncontested military power to create and exploit a "unipolar" world and that, because of US dominance, the world had become more destabilized and was seeing "more wars and regional conflicts." He said that the "almost unconfined hyper-use of force" by the United States and its disdain for the basic principles of international law had stimulated an arms race as insecure countries turned to weapons for security, including weapons of mass destruction. Putin asked why the United States was creating frontline bases with up to 5,000 troops on Russia's borders; why NATO was expanding aggressively toward a non-threatening Russia; and why a missile defense system was was being deployed in Poland close to the Russian border.</blockquote>- Robert Gates, Duty.
Well, I doubt neighbors view Russia as non-threatening but to compare this Russia--even with its nuclear weapons and authoritarian streak--to the old Soviet Union is almost an insult to the memory of the victims of communism. On the other hand, I understand regional fears, I can understand the fears on all sides which is why I don't understand DC's constant need to stir the pot.
And Europe today is not post WWII Europe in the immediate aftermath, even with the current economic problems. Why do some in the US persist in acting as if it is 1985, not 2014, and as if American security runs through Eastern Europe? Let the Europeans handle themselves, they are fit, able and capable. What percentage of world GDP does Europe command again?
Now do some of you see what I have been talking about all these years on this blog, especially in relation to our Afghan campaign? Everytime we try and set an independent course, we get sucked back in to Europe or its perceived "underbelly", the Middle East. And yes, it is the fault of certain factions within our system, I am sure plenty in Europe would prefer that we stay out of it, except when some would like to play us off against those in the system that want us out. And how is this stabilizing, this constant turmoil between various European factions and how they combine with the various American domestic constituencies?
I fear this article may be escalatory in its rhetoric but maybe I am misreading it. It's back to the old Cold War brinksmanship, is it? Or am I misunderstanding?
The US has been involved via its democracy promotion "regime change-lite" programs in the internal affairs of many nations. It was bound to rebound in conjunction with the various internal fault lines of others.
This SWJ article now posted hits the problem directly on the head.
https://medium.com/the-bridge/2c942c6dd47f
Romania and Bulgaria are now signaling their concerns today about the Russian actions---we are getting somewhere close to and or near in the coming days to NATOs Article 5 of self defense.
Stumbling into 1914? ---just what was Putin thinking---I personally think he miscalculated the response and that the US/NATO/EU would be slow and or not respond as they are now responding. Especially since the whole world saw the blatant "lie" of no Russian troops disappear with social media as well as did the "mistreated Russians by Ukrainians" excuse. Social media does have its advantages these days.
To have a result of your chess moves in this play called, raised, and your economical demise brought into play is something he did not play through.
Failure to personally understand your weak points is not Putin's greatest
strength.
For those that speak Russian this propaganda link is a telling example of how the Russian population is being feed some really dumb comments from Kiev and the Ukraine by the KGB/FSB.
By the way check again the Russian parliament war decision which states the Putin can in fact invade all of the Ukraine just not only areas with Russians.
It is though not saying that on the RT website to it's own population.
Anti war demos broke out in Moscow today with public arrests that made it to the social media sites and some radio commenters are voicing a rejection of a war with the Ukraine which is by the way of the same religion and Slavic.
This is now showing that DC might in fact understand the economic trigger---initially the Russians waved/laughed off this potential response but now there is quietness coming out of Russia and Putin as this will sit hard as the Rubel is in fact dropping badly and the economy really struggling if not slumping and will continue to slump and he badly needs foreign investment---even his gas weapon is slumping as the EU/Ukraine are sitting on massive built up reserves due to a mild winter so turning off the gas will have no immediate impact on anyone.
Now the interesting question is how Putin weights his response----- is he "willing" to have a hallow victory over the Ukraine to establish his Russian empire or he is willing to really risk an economic failure of major proportions which might in fact threaten the entire political system driving the population to the streets just as they did in Kiev since there is now an example for the Russian population in how to deal with an arrogant leadership.
From DoS Sec Kerry today:
"Western powers are prepared "to go to the hilt" to isolate Russia for its military incursion into Ukraine, "an incredible act of aggression" that may lead to visa bans, asset freezes, trade and investment penalties, and a boycott of a Russian-hosted economic summit of global powers in June, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
"They're prepared to put sanctions in place. They're prepared to isolate Russia economically. The ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges. I can't imagine that an occupation of another country is something that appeals to a people who are trying to reach out to the world, and particularly if it involves violence," Kerry said.
Kerry also mentioned visa bans, the freezing of Russian assets, trade and investment penalties. He suggested American companies "may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this."
Rick/Robert---this is what I mean when we go down the path of changing borders simply based on ethnicity and languages especially languages or what I now call the Putin Doctrine.
It has nothing to do with "spheres of influence" it is all about "Real Politik" and all about expanding the Russian empire back to the Soviet days.
Really read between the lines on this Russian coming planned parliament decision. AND really read the next to last sentence which shows how they understand previous political issues ie Georgia and Moldavia needed to be changed to match now the Ukrainian Russian areas.
This sentence truly reflects Putins' thinking and again it has nothing to do with an alleged "sphere of influence.
February 28, 2014
Russian lawmakers say they plan to submit a bill to parliament that would make it easier for new territories to join the Russian Federation.
Mikhail Yemelyanov, a leader of the A Just Russia party, said the move was necessary because of the "unpredictable" situation in Ukraine.
He said that, under the proposed bill, a territory would be able to join the Russian Federation on the basis of a referendum or a decision of its parliament.
Russia's "Kommersant" says that, currently, a foreign country or part of it can join the Russian Federation "with the mutual consent of the Russian Federation and this foreign state," confirmed by an international treaty.
Rick:
I am a bit embarrassed to add anything to what Outlaw 09 is saying but perhaps the best way to look at Panama vis-a-vis the Ukraine is to look at what happened several years after. Panama now runs the Canal and according to Wiki, there are no US bases in Panama. I don't believe it reasonable, to say the least, to expect the same kind of behavior from the Russians.
Rick---here is the inherent issue and while I would agree that countries strong and weak all have some form of "spheres of influence" the stronger usually via military and economic and political the weaker via economic and political efforts.
BUT here is where I differ with Robert the defining of a "sphere of influence" strictly defined by ethnicity and languages will long or short lead to wars of some kind as it opens the failures of the last 300 years in the creation of national boundaries and borders many which were dictated by colonial powers---REMEMER originally Russian then Soviet Union and now back to Russia was and is a hegemonic colonial driven country even under Stalin and now to Putin.
To argue that Russians need defending in the say the Ukraine what is then the next argument--- what defending a very large Russian population in the middle of Berlin or on the island of Cyprus or say in Israel ---it opens a massive can of international relations worms.
Reference Panama---that was a true US driven decision due to sphere of influence as you indicate, but equally some would say we were just after a drug dealer so what was it---to remove an initially US supported drug dealer working with the DEA who in our eyes went rouge---or a sphere of influence driven decision--I do not remember his threatening us say by threatening to close the Canal which would have tangated our interests.
The Ukraine is totally different--it is a sovereign country that its' population chose to throw out a dictator due to really poor governance who stole over 70B and broke the country--- is what a "threat" to Russia?
If you listened to the speech of the Russian UN Ambassador yesterday---that population that was throwing out poor governance was called terrorists, Nazi's, radials who throw fire bombs and yet he forgot that snipers gunned down over 80 under the orders now published by the thrown out president. Really listen to his speech as they are totally astounded that a population could do such a thing---and to throw around the term Nazi's indicated they are in a total different thought world.
Russian leadership is totally unsettled over the fact that a former Soviet population and under what they thought was their own influence totally overthrew everything and did it with a minimum of violence-- well relatively minimum.
There is a deep unease by Putin and the Russian oligrachs that the Russian population could do the same thing if the Ukraine is successful going forward. There have been a series on ongoing similar demos being put down in Moscow but at some point they will take off as Putin has through law changes fully reinstituted the old KGB rule over their population and the population is suffering badly under their current economical system, with rampart alcoholism, serious heroin addiction rates, and high HIV rates not to say a serious jihadi problem.
That is Putin's true fear.
BUT the Admiral is correct especially in his proposals for NATO--with Putin actions speak far louder at this moment than words and all he is hearing out of DC is words. If one does not act it only emboldens Putin bottom line.
NOW if true about the G8 meeting being cancelled and the threat was uttered to throw out Russia out of the G8 then the economic triggers are indeed being looked at-extremely happy to see that particular move as it was Putin's biggest dream to get Russia in the G8 as that made him feel that now Russia was once again a super power which flies in the face of reality as the Rubel is sinking and the economy is lagging badly.
REMEMBER one thing about Putin who is in some aspects a Czarist throwback---it is the image of a greater Russia that is militarily and economical all powerful.
With Putin it is all about prestige and image his and Russia's at whatever the costs are.
Robert---the core problem is that some in the old Soviet Union still pine for the old Soviet Union and Putin is exactly one of those---if one looks at every move he has made since coming into multiple power positions he is attempting to recreate the old Soviet Union--it broke up as an empire because just as in Yugoslaivia you cannot hold an empire together with 126 different ethnic populations and over 136 different languages--Russian was just an official bridging language and all other languages were in the 40s through the 70s suppressed.
Look thoroughly at the Russian arguments being used---if one follows that reasoning then Poland could take the eastern portion of the Ukraine as it was really former Poland until 1945 when the Soviets took it and told Poland to take territory from German and now Germany could tell Poland and the want our "German speaking lands back" from the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
We could then expand the Russian logic to say all Sunnis in Syria are in fact entitled to Syria as the Shia are simply a minority and the list could go on and on as the world populations attempt to recreate country boundaries based on ethnic/language compositions---will never work.
BUT when a country uses in this current day and time the following logic that I am going to take territory and call it my sphere of influence just because of language and ethnicity then we are in big trouble going forward.
AND especially a foreign policy based on recreating the former Soviet Union using the pretext of language and ethnicity is dangerous.
WHAT is next?--- the claim by Putin that the Baltics just because a large number speak Russian and were "settled" there after the war by the SU to establish Soviet control over the original population is now what "in the sphere of influence".
The former republics that joined the NATO did so not driven by NATO themselves to join, but they had an underlying fear that if they did not join some defense mechanism what is happening in the Ukraine will happen eventually to them.
REMEMBER Russia just only signed the formal recognition of the Lativan/Estonian borders to Russia just this month after when 1994? What gives now Lativa/Estonia assurance that Russia will abide by the agreements when they openly broke the Budapest 1994 agree with the Ukraine?
What is driving the Ukraine is basically the deep corruption and Russian oligarch's that were left behind in the breakups and never addressed by leaders that were actually part of the corruption and were also oligarch's themselves.
What is really dangerous that the eastern portion being true Ukraine speaking while militarily not strong as an equal has a deep history of effective guerrilla actions that stymied the Soviets at times and they are nationalistic---why they focus on the EU---it is the promise of slowly developing a good governance system as that is one of the requirements of joining---the eastern population simply wants good governance and the rule of law---something that right now Russia sees as a deep deep threat---not NATO or the US.
The true threat to Russia is not NATO or the EU per se, but the threat of good governance and the rule of law actually being liked by populations of the former soviet bloc being then slowly accepted by the Russian population.
The second and far deeper threat to Russia is that the Ukraine has been providing cheap steel, coal and iron to their industries much like a colony did for the colonial powers---and a shift towards the EU "threatens this cheap source"---there is also a vast identified reserve of natural gas via fracking that could turn the Ukraine into a truly major gas supplier taking the Russians out of being able to use cheap gas as a foreign policy.
What is concerning to me is that there is absolutely no US strategy and foreign policy as Obama signaled years ago he was shifting out of Europe towards Asia. AND we can no longer project military power in a way that would signal our dislike of the Russian moves and guess what Putin understands that. The Ukraine has been a building problem for us and the Russian since the Orange Revolution.
The only thing that will get his attention and we the US are simply afraid to do---is to pull the trigger on a large series of economic actions that will in fact hurt a struggling Russian economy and their oligarchs.
Other than that ---what is now coming over the German media reporting and from live feeds is that some form of military action is on the verge of occurring regardless of what Obama does or does not do.
This is like the Austria shooting of 1914---all are stumbling into this from both sides.
It is hard to take Admiral Stavridis serious as a credible, non-biased perspective on this matter. After all, it was under his leadership that much of the vast expansion of NATO, and subsequent compression of the Russian sphere of influence, took place. As more established members of NATO quickly grew weary of supporting US operations in Afghanistan, there was a rush to bring in new members willing to lend their support to virtually anything in exchange for the perceived protection from Russian influence that such membership would bring.
So many in the West could only see goodness in expanding NATO into the former Warsaw Pact. Even Secretary Clinton publicly stated that "the US does not recognize spheres of influence." Great, we can not recognize that the world is round or that gravity exists - but that does not make our position reality. Sam Huntington wisely observed, that the US would be better severed "...to recognize the world as it actually is." Very true. Yet we persist in seeing the world through a US lens. Apparently the fusion of red, white and blue combines to form a rose colored hue...
Ukraine and the Crimea are very much within Russia's sphere of influence. That does not mean that those places and those people do not have sovereign rights, it simply means that Russia will always perceive it to be well within their vital national interests to maintain influence over the context of how that sovereignty will manifest. The US must recognize that fact and take it seriously in our calculations as to how we play this hand. To do otherwise is to risk looking unsophisticated and foolish on the low end, to forcing a war in Europe of unpredictable consequence on the high end.
Russia needs red lines. They also need their sphere of influence. The sooner the US and NATO learn how to do facilitate and enforce both, the better - but an ever expanding NATO as that redline is a recipe for war.
My sense of it that Jim Stavridis is not advocating direct military action but only stepping-up NATO's readiness posture as would be prudent in any crisis on NATO's doorstep.
After all, likely forgotten about by many is the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 by the Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and the U.K., which although isn't a formal treaty, all signatories did promise none of them would ever threaten or use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the Ukraine.
It is interesting to me that no one has brought up the Memorandum and presented it to Putin, the Ukraine's historic part of Russia's near abroad aside, and demanded he make a casus belli for Russia's current action?
That is in fact the fear that Putin wants the West to think and he believes it will cower NATO/EU/US into non action.
I really do think that Putin believes NATO/EU/US will talk and talk and talk and no actions either of a political or military nature will occur.
Never forget the simple fact that Poland a NATO member borders the Ukraine and has deep historical ties to eastern Ukraine AND really dislikes and distrusts the Russians and Poland has a credible and well equipped Army and is deeply tied into the NATO defense plans for the new Eastern European countries that joined NATO.
Your following comment shoots totally by reality of Russian rearmament since 2008 and if you checked the timelines it was under Putin.
"So apparently some people, usually older retired military leaders, cannot for the life of them understand that we've somehow gotten out of the Cold War. They missed the entirety of the 1990s and 2000s (maybe they were so wrapped up in the non-state actor and COIN craze that it simply, unbeknownst to them, passed them by) and all they can do is look at the world still as if it was Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard. All they can do is come up with narratives and reactions like it was 1962."
I will provide you a short story on the rebuilding of the Russian Army which has largely seemingly gone unnoticed by the American public and in the last few days even our "great" intelligence agencies as their initial Ukrainian/Russian analysis seems on the surface to have been totally wrong.
The Russian military has been ungoing a massive rebuild, refit, and weapons modernization of the likes we have not seen as we were tied up in chasing jihadi's around the world that seemingly got us nowhere at the end of 13 years outside of a broken and tired Army with worn out equipment.
In the meantime the Russian Army is now an all volunteer force, there are excellent officer and especially NCO training academies patterned on the US schools, they have passed formal civilian laws protecting their military in business and socially, they have built their version of SOCOM and also have military civilians in the same function as our DACs.
On the weapons side they have a new battle tank that rivals and is if not better than the M1A1, have totally new rocket launching systems the likes we have not seen before, improved their artillery, and come out with new transportation vehicles---ALL while we were chasing jihadi's. AND they have developed a new class of cruise missile nuclear weapons that border on being a violation of the nuclear disarming treaties. BY the way driven entirely by Putin's desire to rebuild a "greater mother Russia".
WHY do I bring it up---the Kosovo and Georgian (2008) intrusions by the Russian Army were largely badly run, aggressive/violent and mismanaged as the Russian knew then of only one thing---shoot and kill even in a civilian environment.
Also here in Europe we are seeing film footage that is not being played in the States and are hearing various commenters comment on the speed and professionalism of this Russian Army intrusion.
From 2005 until 2012, there had been no military to military contact with the Russian Army then out of the blue they contacted the US Army in Europe and proposed doing a joint US/Russian "peacekeeping" driven Staff exercise all inside 90 days called Atlas Vision 12. USAREUR pulled it off and conducted the exercise. As one of those that dealt directly with the Russian Staff on the planning side I was struck by a strictness in their C&C staff processes---they were pushing hard to understand our staff processes and procedures especially as reference to peacekeeping and protecting the civilian population. Relatively speaking it was a good exercise and one could tell the Russian staff officers were inhaling and understanding the concepts.
During AV13 the same Russian staff officers were again involved---by the way from their UN Peacekeeping Bde which is something we do not have.
This time they wanted it deeper---joint command and controls process tailored to the US processes/procedures and using our standard reporting formats but tailored to the Russian standard command and control. This time they wanted deeper logistics and C&C.
During the two events I would often ask as about the only one from the US that had any ties to the old Cold War days---WHY are they so interested in our C&C and processes? I was bushed off with the comments well those were the old days much as the commenter here states and we must move on---all anyone was interested was how many intel officers were they hiding--absolutely no question to the WHY.
You could actually see this group of Russian officers (and it was all COLs/LTCs and senior MAJs) rapidly grasp our peacekeeping concepts, implemented well the standardized C&C and at the end it was an excellent exercise. Especially on population control using a tight ROE---which before they had never known about.
Now watch the footage coming out of the Ukraine and ask yourself just how was it possible that a Russian Army who performed badly in 2008 in Georgia is at the top of the game in 2014? Especially in light of the comment coming from European media reporters---really professional, speed of implementation, tight ROE, minimum use if at all of force, and concentrating on population control measures---then check out the new equipment being seen.
By the way those officers came from the Russian Army National Military Academy, Russian MoD, and the Russian Peacekeeping Bde.
AND by the way the single lesson learned for them was the shift in the thinking of just shooting to a position of restraint around civilians and using a tight ROE---exactly what we are seeing in the intrusion now.
So to the commenter---just why is there a reluctance to really call a spade a spade when dealing with Putin--and it has nothing to o with the old generation of Cold Warriors who still have memories of the KGB/GRU which still exists just with new names?
I realize that Germany can take these actions, but I think we all know Germany won't, and the US can't force them to. The US cannot take these actions, and therefore they are not reasonably part of the US playbook in terms of response.
If we're looking at potential responses, we have to stay grouinded in the real world. There are some things the US can do unilaterally, but not many. There are things that have to be done multilaterally, but they are constrained by the will and capacity of the other involved parties. Proposing an inherently multilateral action as a potential US response steps outside the bounds of reality and gets us nowhere.
In consultations with Germany and based on international trade agreements and using the EU Customs Regulations Germany can in fact stop Russian trucks and individually search them and if need be the customs paperwork rejected and the vehicle turned back to Russia.
Russia is dependent on the EU in reality to allow them to pass through but that is only as the EU defines playing nice.
It is interesting that one of the largest Russian truck transport companies still carries the name SovTrans which in the old days were driven by KGB/GRU drivers as they did intelligence work in Europe---we tailed many of them and photographed a number of meets and eventually informed the Soviet driver he was no longer going be allowed a visa.
Believe me there are ways to slow down and or stop truck traffic legally using EU regulations. Example there is a EU requirement that Eastern European/Russian trucks meet EU safety and especially German safety inspections--it is a known fact that a large number of East European/Russian trucks would virtually fail the inspections---reason for not allowing further travel.
If the Germans did this it would send a big message as the Germans have for years maintained solid relations with the Russians---BUT Putin has been called by Merkel several times in the last two days and it is not having an impact and the Germans are openly questioning Putin's actions and motives.
The problem is---with the Obama responses to the NSA spying on Merkel and the general German public and the FU comments Obama is in a poor position to ask for support in this direction. Merkel will go as does the German general public which is slowly shifting to full support of the Ukraine and shifting strongly against Russia which might be also a response to Russian mob activities throughout German which are well known and publized.
This might in fact be a defining moment for Russian German relations and I am not so sure Putin has calculated that as he really does need EU trade and especially German business investment.
The EU is not dependent on Russian trade and or products--but the Russian oligarchs are in need of EU banks and in their EU investments.
On point #1, how would you suggest that the US go about stopping Russian truck traffic on a German highway? Germany is a sovereign nation, one with close ties to Russia and one that's not particularly amenable to accepting dictation from the US. The Germans could take that step, if they chose to (figure the odds), but the US can't.
As someone who understands the intent behind the KGB/GRU playbook having been in this area of the world since 68 ---yes Russia is using the excuse and it is an excuse of protecting it's Russian citizens and military interests---BUT least we forget it did not Russia sign together with the US and UK a formal international lawfully binding agreement to secure the Ukraine inside it's current borders in exchange for giving up it's nuclear weapons?
Bet they wish they had never signed that agreement. Who says nuclear weapons do not deter?
We tend in the West to overlook the individual driving this ie Putin who is as hardliner as they come, who hated the Soviet breakup and hated those that drove the breakup and has since 2004 driven the Russian vision of reuniting all of the breakaway Soviet states again under Russian control.
By the way Putin has a great disdain for Obama and the US in general and really does not care what we say or think. The only thing he respects is action not words.
By the way Russia has actually violated the recent nuclear missile treaty and was not called out for it by Obama---when was he thinking of doing it?
If we take your comment at face value that they are actually "just" securing their interests and citizens then WHAT about the Russian argument that they use to protect Syria ie one cannot change international borders or protect specific populations inside that border ARE they not doing that now? Nothing but doublespeak and again the same 2008 Georgian moves-- this time just more "peacefully".
NOW comes the interesting piece---we the US claim to have no leverage---we in fact do BUT Obama is totally unwilling to use it as he himself is not an aggressive individual and he somehow feels diplomacy will win the day---TOTALLY false assumption when it comes to Putin.
Obama is and has shown himself to be an avoider of direct action---but the lack of direct action leads others to believe they can do whatever they want with no blowback---ie Assad, Iran (Revolutionary Guards) and now Putin.
You will hear and see in the US media that there is not really much that can be done--WHY no one wants to pull the economic trigger against both Russia and Putin THAT can in fact really drive up the "costs" of the adventure they are on.
WE the US have a perfect legal argument---Russia has violated three major international agreements so therefore after all warnings they still proceeded-so now is the time to take action as it is formally legal---besides what is the world going to do in the coming years if international agreements are not worth the paper they are written on ie Palestine, Israel, Syria, AFG and on and on.
Step 1:
HAS anyone ever seen on any given day the amount of Russian truck traffic on the German A10 highway coming out of the Russian economy via Poland that is so dependent on EU trading? Thousands per month---NOW stop the traffic-- in fact the Ukraine as well as Poland can stop the traffic and see what the reaction will be---immediate!
The Russian economy is spiraling downward, they need foreign investment and many foreign companies are in fact leaving, and the Rubel is sinking---Russia itself is struggling economically so use the economic weapons available.
Step 2: Stop the next G8 meeting and institute a removal of Russia as they had for years fought to get in---so make it now painful to continue in the "Club". Go to the WTO and file charges for manipulating their gas prices via Gazpom to gain undue economic advantages.
Step 3. Enforce a total economic freeze on all Russian oligarch accounts outside of Russia for the entire length of time Russian remains inside the Ukraine---in fact the recent actions to freeze accounts of proRussian Ukraine oligarchs in Eastern Ukraine by Austria and Switzerland and rumored the UK was a shock wave that is now causing some of them to turn "moderate" in their comments. Watch the reaction by the oligrachs-immediate! Institute travel/visa restrictions on all Russian citizens worldwide.
Step 4. Place every Russian naval vessel that leaves the Black Sea under nearby constant surveillance and start patrolling outside territorial limits for the length of the Russian stay in Ukrainian territory.
Step 5. Review of all Russian commercial flights into and out of the EU and the US/Canada---then reduce them for the length of time the Russians remain inside the Ukraine.
Step 6. A constant calling in and discussing the issue with the Russian ambassadors stationed in EU/NATO/US countries.
Step 7. Curtail the blossoming military to military meetings between the US Army and Russian Army.
Step 8. Call for the former Ukrainian President to be arrested for murder of civilians and the theft of over 70B from the Ukrainian people.
WHAT amazes me is the simple fact that the Russians are setting a deep precedent that will come back to haunt them in the coming years with China.
DO not think China is not watching what they do and how they present their arguments to the world and the UN. Do not think for a moment the same Chinese argument could be made for them to protect their own ethnic Chinese citizens in the Russian Far East---and there is literally thousands of miles of territory that hold large numbers of ethnic Chinese inside Russian borders in the Far East.
What we are seeing is Russia attempting to realign territorial borders that were drawn back in the 40s after the war which by the way is the cause of a lot of the recent (last 30 years) instability in a large number of countries---boundaries drawn indiscriminately by the Colonail Powers and then WW2 victors in the 1900s.
AND what does the US do, talk and talk and talk---but nothing is behind it.
There is no strategy in fact there is actually no foreign policy that one can detect---at least Putin is driving on one.
Check the leading editorials in the major EU newspapers this morning---have never seen such open critical comments before concerning US foreign policy failures.
BUT by the way what is haunting the US is that we have reduced our European military footprint to the point that US military power that could be projected is laughable.
So apparently some people, usually older retired military leaders, cannot for the life of them understand that we've somehow gotten out of the Cold War. They missed the entirety of the 1990s and 2000s (maybe they were so wrapped up in the non-state actor and COIN craze that it simply, unbeknownst to them, passed them by) and all they can do is look at the world still as if it was Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard. All they can do is come up with narratives and reactions like it was 1962.
Russia isn't playing a chess game; they're securing their interests. The same as we do in Afghanistan and elsewhere (although our interests in Afghanistan are entirely artificial; those of Moscow in Crimea are most definitely tangible). So far nothing warrants NATO getting all up in arms and certainly nothing warrants direct reaction to Moscow at the moment. Talk, yes. Cautionary warnings, yes. But bluster, NATO 'response,' and sanction? No. This could all change but, at the moment, what we're seeing now is Russia actually taking rational, graduated, and non-hostile steps to secure their local interests. Strict ROEs and commander's guidance seem to be in place and what Russia is securing in the Crimea makes sense; government buildings, ports of embarkation/debarkation, access to airfields and bases, etc. They will not allow a repeat of Euromaidan in the Crimea so near the Black Sea Fleet where there are over 20,000 Russians and 40+ Russian Navy ships. If Ukraine won't secure the area the Russians will and this shouldn't surprise anyone. Unless you're a Cold Warrior looking to pick up the chess pieces again.
All the talk of "invasion" and "use of force" is not helpful and not warranted. And articles like the below are wildly out of place and counterproductive in 2014.