How We Got to the Syria Mess - Washington Post
Americans and Europeans are seeing the results of four years of U.S. disengagement in the Middle East. A country destroyed, with half its people displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands of refugees besieging an unready Europe. And now, Russian warplanes bombing U.S.-allied forces as American officials alternate between clucking reprovingly and insisting bravely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be sorry in the end. That is a tempting dream, but it represents the same wishful thinking that got us here in the first place.
How did we get here? It’s worth recalling, briefly, a bit of history. When Secretary of State John F. Kerry took office at the beginning of President Obama’s second term, he argued that Syria could be saved only with a political solution: The United States did not want to repeat its Iraq mistake and chase President Bashar al-Assad and his regime out of office with nothing to take their place. But, he said, the regime would not negotiate seriously until its opposition was strengthened, and so Mr. Kerry and others in the administration favored U.S. assistance, including training for the rebels, protection of safe zones where they could begin to govern without fear of Mr. Assad’s barrel bombs and chlorine gas, some arms and other military aid.
Mr. Obama would never agree; or rather, sometimes he agreed, and failed to follow through, and sometimes he just said no. Mr. Kerry was left with no option but diplomacy, in particular begging Russia and Iran to bail him out…
Comments
Syria just got far more messy this evening........
Whatever is going on with Israel in Syria right now, IDF AWACS still circling.
flightradar24.com/7cb299e
This "incident" has been ongoing for now over five hours and IDF troops are on the ground in the Golan.
UPDATE: Gag order still in place on Israeli activity over Syria. Activity is ongoing.
NOTICE--Russian AF has not made a move to even fly in this area right now--think they are concerned they will get shot down if they venture into Golan air space right now.
There was also reported today an US AWCS also over the heavy fighting.
Major rebel military ground development is underway------
FSA take Cement Factory in Shaikh Sa'eed & cut-off regime only supply road to inside Aleppo
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.153279&lon=37.145033&z=16&m=b …
This huge development make any advance Assad & Iran campaign can achieve in southern Aleppo "useless".
Reportedly ISIL captured two new military CPs on Ithriya-Khanser road today.
Total Assad army points lost is 19 according to activists.
Two large Assad/Iranian military groups are now effectively surrounded.
Remember I commented earlier that the Arab Sunni street would demand the MANPADs if the RuAF kept up their air strikes on civilian targets and those videos made it into social media......
We are now at that point in time.....Russia failed to understand that the Arab Sunni's in the ME are not Chechens....and they have an ability to respond--the Chechens had none.
SYRIA: Reports that MANPADS will be delivered to select rebel groups in November. - @Charles_Lister
This commenter has had solid reporting in the past five weeks from the ME.
IT could be just a great info war rumor to freeze the RuAF and get them to restrain their attacks on civilians but I do not think so.
The posted comment is straight to the point and short---smacks of a response statement to Putin for his escalation in the killing of civilians--the KSA had warned him a couple of times in the last week.
See you are familiar with the eastern Ukraine fighting from August 2014..the rebels are slowly building their encirclement much to the surprise of Russia.
This is being reported today from the southern army front offensive being led by FSA and others.
NOTICE the last paragraph---high level of Iranian reinforcements being flown into Syria is not being reported by any US/western MSM nor mentioned by the WH.
Aleppo Rebels bomb cement factory after regime regained area (lost in morning)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIBPtsz9NeU …
BTW the rounds fired appear to be incendiary.
That should've been a MRL-attack on that facility _opening_ a pincer attack launched by insurgents:
- northern prong out of Sheik Saed District in southern Aleppo, towards south;
- western prong out of Khan Touman, outside aleppo, in eastern direction.
The insurgents nearly overrun the cement factory. Regime claims to have repelled that attack, but is still reporting about 'combing operations': why comb an area if it's under control...?
Anyway, that would mean that the route between Khan Nassir and Western (regime-held) Aleppo is now cut off too.
...even more so because the Daesh re-initiated its attack on Khan Nassir - Ithriya Road, and pushed the al-Qods al-Filistini Brigade back to km15 from Khan Nassir. The latter is now complaining it can't attack because of a sand-storm.
Now, sure, sand-storms are unpleasant and usually paralyze all military operations. However, yesterday al-Qods al-Filistini was claiming that it has punched through from Khan Nassir to Ithriya, while now it turns out it's stilla t km15 from its starting pont. So, this is another 'how comes' - if regime reports are 'truth'...?
...and that's only one part of regime's troubles in Aleppo area: south-east of the city, IRGC and BPM have approached to 4.5-5km from besieged garrison of Kweres AB, but the Daesh launched a pincer attack around their flanks. In the south the Daesh re-captured Jabol, and in the north it advanced for about 2-3km on a wide front.
Means: this 'regime' op is under threat of being cut off (too).
Gauging by vivid activity of MahanAir and SyrianAir airliners the last few days (3-4 flights between Iran and Syria on average, compared to 1 flight a day until mid-October), it's quite clear that the IRGC is hauling lots of reinforcements to Syria. Question is therefore if these are going to be enough, and then arrive on time too. Otherwise, Suleimani might find himself encricled in that giant 'pocket' around Aleppo.
IMO the US has already earned a military voice among the various FSA groups by simply assisting their training in Jordan, assisting in the MOC and MOM and the voice of the KSA a Sunni Front State has been in supplying the TOWs.
The US has inadvertently earned a political voice --and I mean truly inadvertently--by resisting all efforts to be sucked into Syria by Putin's attempts to get us in their air strikes and intel planning centers.
The question is does Obama recognize he has a voice that can in effect place the US into a position of influencing?
In some aspects even the various groups now realize they can only overcome the Russian engagement by creating a semi army concept with all groups fighting towards a general campaign goal--right now the surrounding of approximately 29K Assad/Iranian/Hezbollah troops in Aleppo and at the same time dueling with IS is their main task.
I'm not sure the Russians can do much more than try to protect an Alawite rump state. Even then, expect the FSyA to continue to chip away at it. And any such "statelet" would be at the mercy of Israeli and Turkish power. Basically Syria has been removed from the chessboard, weakening the Iranian position immeasurably. I could only compare it to if Belarus joined the EU or collapsed into civil war along Ukrainian lines.
The real question is how does the West build ties with the Sunni Syrian community, ensure protection of minorities, and avoid IS betraying the revolution or the new government looking "elsewhere" for succor...
Actually not so sure...the Russians were if comments coming out of Syria are true "shocked" by the poor performance of the Hezbollah, IRGC and SAA to the point of Russian generals literally yelling at IRGC and SAA officers in the command center during the ongoing offensive.
They were taken back by the shock and awe of the TOW and are aware that their air strikes are not working and only creating more hate against them and Assad.
So they are "escaping" to the forefront by making all kinds of statements trying to find an exit strategy that can get them back out--especially with the offer to help FSA with supporting air strikes and then the announcement of new elections etc.
Since the TOW/MILAN/FAGOT shock and awe--they have been not flying that much--weather is poor to bad which seems to indicate that the RuAF is not a true all weather AF and the problems just keep on piling up for them.
That would explain they blatant and first time open admission yesterday that their Spetsnaz units have actually been in eastern Ukraine and they are shifting them to Syria.
The next two weeks are the critical phase for the FSA and kicking out Assad.
Reference rumored MANPADs coming into Syria......this popped up today in social media reference Iraq.
Pictures showing Katta'ib Hizbollah members with anti-aircraft shoulder-launched missile systems in Iraq.
pic.twitter.com/3UyvwhDJ4D
So Iran supplies MANPADS to a designated terror org in breach of a UN arms embargo even though no air threat in Iraq, no one cares....
Who's aircraft are they expecting to shoot down? I wonder if the US will complain about MANPADS proliferation here.. https://twitter.com/sarbarzi/status/657925437444747264
Can someone remind me again of why shia iraqi militias are not a threat or dangerous with MANPADS but FSA is?
BTW for those keeping score................
In last 11 days 14 Iranians including 2 Generals and bodyguard of Ahmadinejad killed in Syria.
12 different countries that have a Shia population are providing fighters into Syria.
Iranian IRGC "Mostafa Sadrzadeh", Head of Ammar brigade(Afghan fighters) killed yesterday in Syria,Aleppo.
After 24 days of attacking FSA instead of IS, bombing with cluster munitions and using thermobaric weapons, killing untold number of civilians and bombing nine hospitals.
You have got to be kidding me........?
@ReutersWorld Russia says ready to support Free Syrian Army with air strikes
http://reut.rs/1jFPRXG
Syrian social media response.......
More vodka please - #Russia says it’s ready to support the FSA in #Syria with airstrikes
WELL we cannot be disappointed because we knew that Russia always lie......
Russia|n warplane bombard rebels today in eastern #Qalamoon, indirectly supporting #Daesh
https://youtu.be/6NeiVpFIFKs
Iran'ian IRGC admits the killing of 8 officers & advisers during battle in southern #Aleppo #Syria
Another day in #Syria with huge loss of regime armor. Must be horrible to be #SAA/#NDF/#Hezbollah tank crew.
Brig-Gen Reza Khavari, the senior commander of IRGC's Fatemiyun Division killed in Syria today, Fars reports, another Iran top commander.
It is interesting that even if the Russians rule the air--the ancient battlefield rule--that infantry and artillery in the end wins wars is proving itself in the last 24 hours in Syria---while Russia and the US are "talkin" in Vienna the language of the battlefield is determining whether Assad stays or goes not Putin.
A civil society that stood up in 2011 and was forced by a dictator's brutality and genocide to rebel is now determining their way forward via the power that comes from the TOW barrel.
Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.
From front reporting the following--- after a 24 hr counteroffensive supported by countless TOW strikes.
QUOTE
Like I said: 'look east'.
What happened is that the JAF (Jaysh al-Fatah) announced an 'offensive on Hama', while they actually aim for the 'regime's' (read: IRGC's) sole road communication between Homs/Hama and Aleppo.
So, the JAF attacked in south-eastern direction, not on Hama, and cut off the road connecting Homs with as-Sa'en.
Not to be outdone, the Daesh exploited the situation to launch a double VBIED attack on regime positions in Ithriya, plus 8 checkpoints north of that place, cutting off the road from Ithriya to Aleppo.
With this, the regime's corridor connecting Homs and Aleppo is cut off in two places. And that means that all the IRGC troops in western and southern Aleppo are now actually 'sacked': they are encircled by insurgents from the west, and the Daesh from the east. Their only remaining venue of re-supply is Aleppo IAP/Nayrab AB, south-east of the city.
The IRGC-QF has already reacted and deployed the Liwa al-Qods al-Filistini (PFLP-GC and PIJ recruited Palestinians from various refugee camps in Syria) to attack the Daesh positions down the road in direction of Ithriya. Their first two attacks were repulsed, and I doubt this small 'brigade' (400 combatants at most) is likely to punch through there.
...and now about 9,000 IRGC combatants (including IRGC-regulars, Hezbollah/Iraq and Hezbollah/Syria) deployed north and south of Aleppo, and about 20,000 NDF and BPM troops in and around Aleppo, are cut off from their supply bases.
Makes me wonder where are certain foreign 'observers' to tell us more about Russian 'sweeping offensives by professional military' now? Situations of this kind are making the staff of the Russian 58th Army (they seem to be in 'overall command' of all the forces fighting on behalf of Assadist regime) look like a mere bunch of amateurs.
The insurgent counteroffensive is going on - not at some breath-taking speed: this is foremost an infantry attack. But, it's coming forward.
JAF has captured Lahaya village, east of Latameah and south of Latmin village. Here either the Jund al-Aqsa deployed a captured T-72 too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POUQlVaZ6VE
The 4th Regiment/111th Brigade FSyA and 6th Brigade FSyA have captured Ma'rkabah (insurgents lost Ma'rkabah on the first day of NDF/Hezbollah offensive; it is south of Latmin).
Reportedly, they withdrew due to heavy air strikes, but then came back and finally secured the place with help of Jund al-Aqsa. The latter group is already announcing an attack on Moarek.
Near Moarek, the FSyA TOWed another T-72 (that's slightly north of the scenes of attack mentioned above):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDJLubvPzjg
Tajamu al-Aazza and the rest of the 6th Brigade FSyA, plus Tremseh Brigade FSyA have captured Tel Bayhun, nearby.
Further east, the JAN has secured as-Sa'en. No regime counterattacks have been reported there.
Further north, that is along the road from Ithriya to Aleppo, the IRGC-QF has deployed the al-Qods al-Filistini (now 'advanced' to the status of a 'Commando Brigade') to breach the Daesh road-block that was 12km south of Khan Nasser and punched through after 'violent clashes'. Meanwhile, the frontline should be 17km south of Khan Nasser, and fighting is 'heavy', but they are 'advancing and taking back territory lost today'.
We'll see if they're going to punch through then, even should they manage to cut through the Daesh, they'll still find the JAN behind it...
For those of the terrorist days of the 60-70s here is an old friend of ours who has American blood on their hands----PFLP.
A document of dangerous self deception either by #Putin, #Assad or Elijah's source.
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2015/10/23/wha
I can see the FSyA loosely coordinating attacks against Loyalist forces with the Islamic State, even if the two are enemies. Is the US not coordinating with IRGC and Iranian-sponsored forces in Iraq? Haven't Loyalist forces ignored the Islamic State in favor of attacking the moderates? Right now the FSyA is under serious Russian air assault and needs all the breathing room it can get...
Aroz---something today from a very observant Syrian tracker since 2011.
QUOTE
I'll only say: 'look east'. ;-)
Namely, if what I've got to hear today is truth, some are going to be amazed at how well insurgent commanders can 'read' not only maps, but foremost 'needs' of their opponents (not to talk about them being finally free to act at their own discretion): they're likely to prove far better in this discipline than commanders of supposedly 'professional military' of the other side....
UNQUOTE
Combined with the massive number of TOW kills over the last few days and the very serious MANPAD rumors is starting to panic the Russian military commanders--not to speak of some of the background reasons for some of the Putin comments from yesterday in Sochi.
IMHO--this is an important turning point for Syria and Iraq and it includes IS---Robert Jones here has often stated we need to talk to IS and in a posting of mine on the Syrian military thread yesterday another commenter said the same thing.
NOW this----
QUOTE
Strategic Hama - Aleppo loyalist supply road cut by simultaneous attacks from Rebels and IS
UNQUOTE
Qatar/Jordanian MOC had urged the groups to work closer together this week and it appears that at least militarily they are now functioning in joint attacks.
Robert Jones has also commented here that we need to let the Syrians work it out among themselves--just maybe they are and Putin has himself to thank for that.
We need to accept that whatever comes out of Syria is what the Syrians want regardless of what it looks like---believe me they will not forget who supplied the TOWs.
There is a certain FSA unit pride and morale boost coming out of the constant TOW hits and we are seeing more MILAN and FAGOT firings from other groups as well.
The problem is that Russian propaganda is working. Not that anyone believes that Russia's motives are altruistic or that Putin deserves the Nobel Peace Prize: it is more insidious. The goal is to discourage active opposition, rather than to garner support. The Kremlin wants the Western European and American publics to question whether Assad needs to step down, or whether the Crimea was always Russian or whether there is an indigenous separatist movement in the Donbass.
Now, talking heads as poles apart as Bill Maher and Donald Trump seem to agree that Syria consists of Assad and ISIS, and "why can't we let the Russians take care of it for us?". Yet we have eliminated tens of thousands of ISIS fighters while taking great care to not cause collateral damage - and no one seems to be aware, least of all Justin Trudeau.
Dayuhan--if you thoroughly understand the eight phases of the Russian non linear warfare coupled with the thorough understanding of the Iranian "Revolutionary Islam" then this info war piece in the Iranian media would totally not surprise you but is it not interesting that both Iran and Russia are now using the same "narrative"?
Iranian variation of "Blackwater mercenaries fighting for Kyiv junta" theme https://twitter.com/IranFrontPage/status/658185762962210816 …
BTW--this is just a short list on the SWJ articles on the issue of "weaponization of information"--the better articles were those that SWJ posted during the Crimea and during the heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Propaganda Fight Against IS Must Expose Lies, Lawmakers Told
'Unprecedented' Challenge in Countering Adversarial Propaganda, Official Says
by DoD News
Defeating ISIL in the Information Environment
"Weaponization of information"--if you take the Russian articles I posted a number of times on the Ukrainian military thread is far far more advanced that the WW2 propaganda and Cold War days and it is being built around "influencers".
BTW there was one such article by Donovan posted by SWJ that was in fact one such "influencer" article and yet he was not called out on it--ever wonder why??
Surprise surprise--social media is the answer which the articles above have not quiet figured out. It is just the US seems to be unable to respond as the MSM blocks about anything headed that way--ever wonder why US MSM is definitely not interested in the "truth"?
Hate to answer it---US MSM has been wrapped into the Russian weaponization process and yet they do not see it--worse yet maybe they just do not care or even worse they actually support it.
Well clutch the pearls and faint, they are using propaganda... because even if you put 6 of every letter in the alphabet on it, it is still just a propaganda campaign, and a clumsy and ineffective one at that.
Propaganda is advertising, and you don't measure the success of an ad campaign by the number of ad placements, social media posts. comments, articles, etc. You measure the campaign by sales of the product, and by this index Putin's campaign is a miserable failure. Who has it persuaded? A few core Russian nationalists, who didn't need persuading. A few reflexive US-haters. Ironically, a small fringe of the US and Western political right, who admire Putin for his willingness to use armed force, his homophobia, his Islamophobia, his immigrant phobia, and his effort to project a caricature of manliness. There are a few who prefer him to Obama because in their view he has the right skin color for a leader... but lump all these together, and what influence have they got?
Zero, nada, rien, nichts.
For all the flap and fluff over the Russian "information warfare" threat, they are simply not selling the product to anything but an insignificant, if occasionally noisy, fringe. Where's the success? NATO is more unified than it's been in 2 decades. The Russians gave NATO just what it needed, enough of a pseudo-threat to provide a unifying a common antagonist without actually doing any threatening. They've managed to unite all of Sunni Islam against them. The Chinese are playing friendly but are steadily undermining Russian influence in the 'Stans and economically colonizing eastern Siberia: the dragon will turn on the bear when it feels it has the upper hand. Iran and the Shi'a are Russian allies only as long as it suits their immediate purposes. Assad is more liability than asset.
Why do you fear them so much?
Do you think the Russian buzzword boys try to sell their strategies to the higher-ups by calling them "quantum", the way their American equivalents do?
AND you fully do not understand a single D out of the 6Ds of the Russian weaponization of information.
Understand those and then you can join the game.
Russian non linear warfare as well as the Chinese,Iranian and yes IS UW strateges all share "weaponization of information".
You missed that chapter way back in the early days of the eastern Ukraine and by the way it is far slicker than you can very imagine go back into the closed Ukrainian thread and you will see a posting of mine depicting exactly how "influence of the narrative" works and who is supporting it in the US.
SWJ even sees it as critical in several articles posted here recently.
But first learn and inhale the 6Ds.
But remember-----
Dr Goebbels explained more than once that propaganda works on most people quite effectively.
Don't be silly, "the weaponization of information and money" is as old as information and money, and is hardly unique to Russia. If "informational warfare" is supposed to mean a bunch of third rate trolls plastering canned propaganda on social media sites and comment threads, I don't think it's anything to fear. The quantity is there but the quality isn't, and the impact is negligible. All this "non-linear warfare" hype is like all the "4GW" hype a few years back... just another buzzword for people who feel like putting new names on old tricks puts them ahead of somebody else.
Strip away the buzzwords and Putin is sinking into a mire of his own making. No need for us to help him on his way, and still less need to jump in there with him.
The US can't and never could "fix" Syria. All the king's horses, all the king's men, and all the king's money aren't going to achieve that. Picking a proxy and sending guns an money isn't "fixing" anything.
We don't "fix it", because we can't fix it, any more than we could "fix" Iraq... look how well all those trillions of dollars worth of fixing worked out. Picking and committing to a proxy is not going to "fix" anything.
Maybe the US should star living by values that include occasionally minding our own business and not going to war when we have no clear or compelling reasons to do so.
So Dayuhan tell me again "we have no reason to fix it"---and yet the US claims to have and defend moral values and one of these has always been called "common humanity".
Was it not the US that after the genocidal massacres in Africa that stated publicly we had an obligation to "fix it"?
So for 4.5 years of the Syrian genocide we are what "not to fix it"? Just do what-- "walk away from it and look the other way" as we did in Africa?
The is Putin's "stabilisation of the situation" in Syria.
Tens of thousands are fleeing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O0Bya34uM0 …
While the RuAF confuses ISIS w/ FSA-held territory by up to 200 kilometres, it can well distinguish between homes & hospitals
4 hit so far
Dr. Mohamed Tennari of the Sarmin hospital says Assad targeted his facility 10 times. But it was Putin's "precision" that finally hit it.
12 people got killed in the two (!!) direct strikes on Tuesday, among them 2 doctors via The Guardian
There are only four hospitals in the epicenter of the current Russian/Hezbollah and Iranian ground offensive and ALL have been hit by Russian air strikes...by accident--do not think so.
HadiAlabdallah · 24m24 minutes ago
Russian air strikes in the Homs suburb of Talbiseh kills 17 civilians, including 5 women and 8 children, and injures scores
Expect 100.000+ new refugees- flee from southern/western suburbs of Aleppo & its southern countryside in coming days
Damascus Helicopter drop bombs on Moadamieh "truce-zone" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHDXCv1XW4U …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33.460554&lon=36.187849&z=15&m=b …
Massive Russian airstrikes on southern Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PTXNOfTCTU …
AND yet we are going to "trust" anything Putin and his FM said in Vienna today --their actions speak more volumes.
Remember Dayuhan it was Obama who stated publicly "we will judge Putin on his actions not his words".
THAT is exactly why we have a mess in Syria--Obama "listened to Putin's/Assads words".
Dayuhan--since you missed a greater portion of the debate on the Russian non linear warfare---next to the two strongest elements of that ie;
1. weaponization of information and money
2. informational warfare
Putin is using a new concept which I term the "weaponization of refugees" ie the creation of them and the driving of them to create diversions for the West ---he has actually quite successful at it if we look at both the eastern Ukraine and now Syria and the refugee exodus out of Syria towards Europe.
With their bare hands ...
Talbiseh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gk4lSVkufXw …
Footage
The daily apocalyptic terror in Talbiseh due to combined air strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pflh-n5TTqs …
Footage
The free city of Rastan (Homs) after 4 weeks of Russian / Assad air strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBhPrH52OwM …
Footage
An Assad army Mil Mi-24 drops a barrel bomb on a liberated town in Homs province
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5J8S2udT3Y …
NONE of these air strikes were Islamic State targets--which if we recall is the professed reason Putin stated he is in Syria..???
Targeted is the Syrian civil society that has rebelled against the Assad dictatorship nothing more nothing less.
Remember Dayuhan it was Putin two weeks ago that criticized the EU for their handling of the refugee flows--stating that Russia had such a great track record in handling refugees the EU could learn from him--SO now he is creating them himself and YET we the US nor the EU say not a single word against his actions.
Does that make sense to you??? It does not to me.
Another Tens of thousands flee from regime offensive in Jabal al-Hoss south of Aleppo- the poorest region in Syria
THIS is on top of the 70K driven out of Homs area from indiscriminate Russian air strikes using cluster munitions and dumb bombs.
BTW I would argue we are in this mess because Obama truly does not completely and fully understand UW nor the Russian/Iranian forms of non linear warfare.
BUT that is another arugment....
Now tell me again the US "does not need to fix it"???
Obama's Middle East policy has actually succeeded in at least one of its primary objectives: it has avoided American commitment to yet another pointless, profitless, unwinnable and appallingly expensive war. Obama set out to achieve that, and for better or worse he has succeeded: the US may be involved in Syria, Libya, and a few other places, but it's not committed. Neither is there any real reason to think that commitment would have achieved any desirable result.
Then you do not fully understand the Sunni Shia conflict that has been boiling just under the surface since 1979.
If you subscribe to the thesis we broke Iraq by removing Saddam--again using your own words "without a feeling of jumping in" or can anyone here after Bush 43's move into Iraq in 2003 EXPLAIN fully just WHY "we jumped in" to begin with that does not lend its self to just being an excuse??
Using you own analogy of "not jumping in and or fixing everything" just WHY did we then using you own words "jump into Iraq to fix it"--as there was no deep driving foreign policy to do it that since 2003 to explain it?
Old saying--if it ain't broke do not break it" seems to apply in 2003 did it not??
By removing Saddam regardless of how brutal he was and or wasn't (depending on the Sunni or Shia POV) we actually "allowed" the Sunni Shia conflict to mature/grow into what it is today-a full fledged WAR ranging from the Lebanese border to AFG (including Pakistan and yes even Cambodia) and involving "let's see" seven countries.
You seem to not realize --whether we like it or not--whether "we did or did not jump in" we are part and parcel of what is going on in the ME since Khomenei's call for "Revolutionary Islam". WHICH by the way is still greatly supported by Khamenei and the already picked hardliner soon to take over from Khamenei
We should have addressed the Hafez massacres THEN and we would not be addressing Assad's genocide now. Is it not genocide when 300K have been killed, 1.7M wounded and over 11M driven out as refugees and or IPDs--AND most are/were Sunni's.
This is not rocket science--it demands though forward thinking and common sense on the part of a US President and especially his NSC--which since the Ukraine seems to be sorely missing in action.
We need not again using your own words "fix" everything BUT what was this administrations own response AGAIN to the genocidal gassing of 1500 men, women and children--a lot of words, but not a single action if you "recall" talking the walk BUT not walking the walk in foreign policy actually get's the US to where we are today 10/23/2015--TALKING in Vienna when the fighting on the round will actually resolve the Syrian conflict--we are long past talking.
AND I hate to repeat this mantra---the "so called" Obama grand foreign policy is in tatters and has failed badly--and sadly the next President is in some serious trouble when he or she attempts to dig the US out of the hole it created for itself.
Actually if one is honest with themselves even you must admit the Us has not had any great foreign policy "thinkers" in the last say five Presidents.
Dayuhan--by the way the Syrian genocide of Sunni's is now continuing under Putin and yet based on your comments "we need not fix it"????
33 civilians killed & 110 wounded since #Assad militia escalation started in Marj al-Sultan East Ghouta few days ago.
https://youtu.be/L8RHG1FhXx0
Are Hafez Assad's massacres now American failings?
We can be fully aware of the world around us without feeling a need to jump in and try to fix every broken place on earth... in fact we have to be, because if we try to fix every broken place on earth - or even a substantial fraction of the broken places - we'll soon be bankrupt.
We have been in this Syrian mess for a lot longer than just with Obama and the West refused to actually see it.
In 1982, Hafez Assad carried out horrible sectarian massacres in #Hama city. Estimated 40,000 people were killed.
Again the name Hama shows up where the heavy fighting is ongoing and those killed in 1982 and 2015 were/are again Sunni.
Report from Jaish al Fatah assault toward #Hama city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUnF...ature=youtu.be …
We are now paying for the historical failures of not paying attention to what is happening around us and believing nothing tangates the US as we live in the US--events are coming back to haunt us for those failures of the past.
BTW--we really do need to pay serious attention to the words being uttered by Putin and his inner circle--since the Crimea these words have a tone of an "altered state of reality" that has been increasing as the pressure on Putin climbs for an exit strategy from both the Ukraine and now Syria.
When one thinks #Russia's insanity has reached its peak... Russians reach higher... now #Putin is God's messenger.
pic.twitter.com/t6j2RVilK0
This comment is due to the long Putin speech yesterday in Sochi that was an eye opener for those that took the time to read both the Russian and English versions.
Putin is dangerously starting to seriously threaten the West via his nuclear weapons and his tirade against the US missile defense shield is worth studying especially where he stated the MDS is a direct threat to his ICBMs.
He really believes this in his "altered state of reality" when all technical experts have stated not a single missile in the MDS has the range capable of hitting Russian ICBMs once launched thus preserving the Russian strategic capability and MAD.
Nowhere did Putin admit that the Iranians launched their own ballistic missile-- successfully by the way--that was the reason for the US MDS in Europe not Russian missiles.
Putin is angry because indirectly the US MDS can successfully target the Russian use of tactical nuclear battlefield weapon systems which Putin largely favors in his nuclear threats against NATO lately.
I may have used the wrong term "Army" instead of coalition as described in this link.
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/10/13/kurds-assyrian-ch…
There is another Newsweek article linked within but it is behind a firewall.
Now you actually see Putin's intentions becoming clearer--he is not going to give Assad up thus in fact hardening the Sunni Front States and Turkey's position that he must go immediately.
AND needless to say undermines Obama who says he can stay for a transitional period.
The US/Russian/KSA and Turkey meeting tomorrow will go nowhere fast after this announcement.
Russia Said to Back Early Syria Vote to Give Assad New Mandate http://bloom.bg/1jCK9FX
I will now post in the coming hours as I need to retrieve it--the Russian declaration of war on the entire opposition to Assad--it was released by the Russians last week and got very little notice by the MSM but it is clear as a bell as to his intentions so this move does not surprise in the least.
Obama finally needs to fish or cut bait and admit his so called foreign policy of the last six plus years has basically failed.
Tap dancing and hope do not make a foreign policy.
MF--interesting that the COL mentioned that the SAA is on our side--that is exactly the disinformation that has been driven on the Syria narrative.
If the MSM had truly been following Syria the 300K killed, 1.2M wounded, and 11M IDPs/refugees would not have taken the entire West by surprise.
Many social media types that have been following Syria since 2011 have often pointed the Shia triangle out but no one has and still does not pay any attention.
There is a true Sunni Shia War and it is not only in Syria but is also playing out in Yemen.
Iran'ian Basij militia members fighting in kurdish #Rojava
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566102-iran-suffers-first-casua… …
BTW--do not think for a moment the Ukraine and Syria are not tied together--they are via non linear warfare......
Ukraine Intelligence: Russian recruiting centers in occupied Donetsk hire mercenaries for Syrian war
http://gur.mil.gov.ua/en/content/art-obstanovka-dovkola-syrii.html
Outlaw, you may want to watch COL Warren's nearly hour-long C-Span brief to reporters in the blog as he mentions the Syrian Arab Army several times as being on our side and no mention of it being Shia. He talked of 10-12 groups with 20 leaders talking with us about a potential attack of Raqqah, Syria with about 5,000 troops that he admitted may not be enough. He also mentioned only about 15 coalition airstrikes in 8 days in Syria and that 70% are dynamic vs. preplanned air tasking order targets.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/257639-coalition-new-phase-in-militar…
He did a great job of answering most questions. He did tactfully avoid answers to questions dealing with what Iraq wants from us and Russia, and differences between opinions of Iraq’s Parliament members vs. Abadi on whether Russia should bomb ISIL targets in Iraq. I note from other press reports that Iraq was given an ultimatum of sorts saying that we could no longer support them with airstrikes if Russia does. Apparently the Iraq Air Force has upped its game with about 40 strikes near the Baiji refinery that was assaulted by Iraq Army elite forces.
BTW, thanks for the link below to another Joshua Landis discussion. He mentioned that 100 out of 193 nation-states today have come into existence just since 1945. That seemingly would support the notion that new nations are not out of the question. If Iraq foolishly sides with Russia on future airstrikes perhaps we also could see a move out of Baghdad and up into Kurd territory of Iraq and Syria using east Syria as an air route if Turkey and Iraq cut off airspace access.
Azor--ever notice that since 2012 western and US MSM never talk about the following-that namely the "so called" Syrian Arab Army is not "Syrian" and not "Arab".
Appears MSM hates to call a spade a spade ie it is a "Shia Army" from 12 different countries.
Only NDF, IRGC-QF and Hezbollah/Iraq (total of 7 brigades meanwhile!!), Hezbollah/Lebanon (2 brigades, including one armoured!), Hezbollah/Syria, SSNP, BPM etc., etc., etc
InfoGraphic - Assad Regime Foreign Allies in #Syria | from around 12 countries.
HD: http://archicivilians.com/2015/09/21/info-graphic-assad-regime-foreign-… …
By the way listen to rebel videos, they all speak Arabic & SYRIAN. Unlike most pro Assad fighters today...
Azor---another indicator if it's use is confirmed that the MANPADs are not far behind.
The Sunni Front States will not tolerate much more and all the efforts of Obama and Israel will not make a difference.
We are seeing now a true Sunni Shia War and to call it anything else is a waste of time--just how Putin figured siding with the Shia will get him influence in the ME is beyond me.
We have now seen Russia use thermobaric weapons against civilians, cluster munitions against civilians and now napalm.
If confirmed--war crime charges since napalm use is internationally forbidden--except Russia will argue it never signed the international treaty just as they and Syria never signed the cluster munitions treaty.
Regime used Napalm against #Damascus suburbs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOqdfZdmNEQ&list=PLNxwX7r4A557F_jN9u7br… …
IT is sad if you think about it that the Sunni Front States and the anti Assad forces on the ground really only trust the CIA as the CIA has stood by them for over two years now.
Obama, Kerry and the entire NSC is really a sad case---when they could have intervened on the humanitarian side they basically did nothing and now it has gotten worse and yet has anyone heard a single comment focused against Putin for his creating of a humanitarian disaster??
He pulled off the same thing in eastern Ukraine and again there as well nothing was heard from Obama, Kerry and his entire 700 person NSC.
They have even placed a muzzle on the US UNSC Ambassador who has been often critical there on Syria.
PUTIN publicly chastised the EU for their handling of the refugee crisis and stated Russia had great experience in that area--YEAH at actually creating refugees--first in Chechnya and now Syria.
Around 75,000 people have been displaced & made homeless in south #Aleppo, #Syria since the #Russia & Assad offensive started 2 weeks ago
Many of those now don’t have a roof over their heads, sleep in the outdoors, no food, water, tents, blankets, medical care…
The lives of over 12,000 Syrian families, destroyed in the blink of an eye by Russia & Assad, in south #Aleppo alone.
AND not a single counter word from any western leader--all are strangely silent--ever wonder why??
Aleppo Reports: SAA commander of Kwers airbase "Issa Samandar" killed by IS assault on airbase tonight
Mosques in all IslamicState controlled towns calling for blood donations
-from eastern Aleppo to Raqqa
-Looks like final battle-
IslamicState launched full assault Kwers airbase
- failed in the past several times
Reports about lots of dead among regime forces & IslamicState during battle south of Kwers airbase in eastern Aleppo
I'd reverse the question to - is Russia becoming an Iranian proxy?
Historically, Russia has always confused great power rivalry with its own core national interests.
Nor does it have "friends" or even "allies" worthy of the name. Iran fancies itself a regional power and although the Ayatollahs will take advantage of every opportunity to strike at the United States and Israel, they will not sacrifice their country or its proxies for Russia. Basically, if a Russian border dispute with NATO, China, any of the 'stans, Japan or North Korea "goes hot", don't expect the IRGC to raise a finger. Last I checked Venezuelan regulars were not vacationing in the Donbass, and even Lukashenko - once muted as a future Russian president - is taking an independent tack between Brussels and Moscow. Syria was firmly an Iranian client who bought Russian arms and used the Tartus enclave as an insurance policy of sorts against a US invasion.
I do believe that some people in the Pentagon and Langley were for arming the FSyA. However, the expansion of ISIS convinced many that there were no "moderates" to be found, and some probably wanted to stay out of Syria altogether. The public program which netted "50" soldiers was always a diversion from ongoing CIA involvement in Turkey and Jordan. Certainly the anti-ISIS air campaign has allowed for observers to take stock of the extent of that movement and its relation to the other factions.
The Sunni Front will neither accept Assad nor ISIS and I don't see Putin strong-arming anyone. It is patently obvious that while Iran and Russia can support an Alawite enclave in Latakia, there is no major catalyst for victory over the Sunni non-ISIS opposition in the country.
Hopefully these MANPADs don't end up being fired at NATO aircraft...
Azor----the interesting question is becoming--is in fact Iran now a Russian proxy?
If the social media chatter is valid there is in fact MANPADs coming into Syria if not already there--the announced meeting by of Russian, USA, KSA, and Turkey concerning Syria is nothing than a smokescreen to divert those missiles. You are right Turkey and the KSA/Qatar will not accept Assad remaining in any transitional government and actually with the ground wins KSA/Qatar/Jordan the Sunni Front States are in a much stronger position than three weeks ago--thanks to the Russians.
Russian nightmare is the SAMs in fact coming into play.
It was a known fact that the US/Obama had been instrumental in holding the TOWs back --a total of over 560 have been fired--early in the TOW phase 20-30 or so were fired and then suddenly the supply dried up and the FSA started taking loses--then social media chatter picked up on it and pushed the core question "what happened" and then suddenly they started arriving.
The question is --was this release a "favor" provided to the KSA in exchange for the Iran Deal---think so.
Russian MANPADs have actually been captured but not used---one copter has been shot down definitely recently so others are still out there.
WH Spox: "red carpet welcome for Assad" shows Russians are not serious in supporting a political transition in Syria
http://www.trust.org/item/20151021182418-wqg54/?source=shtw …
Outlaw 09:
At this point only the US and Israel are preventing an invasion of MANPADs into Syria, which would neutralize both Assad and Russia, and curtail Hezbollah and the IRGC. However, if Russia continues to strike at NATO/GCC-sponsored rebels and civilians with abandon, it is doubtful if this prohibition can be continued.
Over at "War on the Rocks", there seems to be acceptance of Assad remaining in power, at least temporarily, and of Russia retaining its foothold and expanding its influence throughout the Middle East, even including rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.
Firstly, I don't see how Moscow can cozy up to Riyadh without throwing Teheran and Damascus under the bus. After all, the impetus to contain Iran and remove Assad is more pronounced in the GCC and Turkey than Israel or the West, and these are the same countries that have been training and equipping anti-Assad forces prior to any CIA involvement.
Secondly, much has been made of Putin's outreach to Egypt. Yet Egypt has a collapsing economy and will bend to the will of the highest bidder; moreover, Sisi has been trying to shore up the legitimacy of his rule and welcomes any supporter.
Third, oddly enough ISIS is more of a concern to Iran and the West than to either Israel or the GCC. Iran is worried about losing control in Iraq, but the GCC seems more preoccupied with Shia rebels in Yemen. The West is simply horrified by their atrocities and potential for strikes into the West itself by returning volunteers. Even the Iraqi Shias seem content to let ISIS run amok in the Sunni areas, while they cross the border to fight with Hezbollah.
Given that with small arms and technicals, ISIS accomplished what the hardened SyAA couldn't, this might say more about local ambivalence than any particular military prowess. If Iraqi Sunnis and Shias were prepared to let ISIS roll up to the gates of Baghdad than perhaps we should have left it to the Iranians to deal with. Maybe Obama's dismissive comments were actually right? And while the GCC and Jordan are appreciative of US interest, they have continued to focus on the Alawites and Houthis...
Worth listening to......
JustinStearns & @Joshua_Landis go at it: #Syria, Alawis "primordial" &"constructed" identity
https://youtu.be/yNciQy8PlPg
Sounds uncannily like the Bush "Mission Accomplished" statement---
Thanks to positive results of Syria airstrikes, long term solution based on inclusive political process is possible, Putin tells Assad.
Does Putin truly realize just what he has said--again typical Russian "altered state of reality" seen in eastern Ukraine.
Azor---this 100 Year War is turning into an outright Sunni Shia Conflict first class and yet evidently no one saw it coming??
With the advent of the TOW the fighting moral of the Syrian Sunni regardless of group has rocketed looks like the CIA/KSA finally got something right.
Beware of the "farmers & pharmacists": (meaning the Syrian Sunni and the Sunni Front States)
Standing strong vs:
Assad
Hazara
Hezbollah
Iran
Iraq Shia
ISIS
Putin
[fill in next..]
Aroz--this is not what the MSM sees coming out of the current fighting.
Crow Bat over on the Syrian military thread has some of the best comments I have seen here in a long time.
Well, here a 'classic example' in what kind of fool's paradise are all the Assad-fans, Russians, and IRGC living.
On 9 October, the IRGC and BPM launched their offensive to lift the siege of Kweres AB (originally besieged by FSyA and Ahrar ash-Sham, back in 2012; then the Daesh took over after destroying insurgents in that part of Syria). Regime-fans immediately claimed a 'victory', capture of Tel Sab'in and approach to only 7.5km from the perimeter fence of Kweres AB.
By 17 October, they continued claiming new advances and capture of Dakwanah, while actually the Daesh launched a counterattack, took away Tel Sabin and threatened Tel Nam.
Since two days, regime-fans are repeating claims about capture of Tel Sab'in: accordingly, 'Col Sohail Hassan's Tiger Force is bushwacking' the Daesh there - while it is actually not advancing at all: it lost Jabbul too...
In essence, the IRGC is back to its old practice of reinforcing failure, while the idiots in the Russian MOD in Moscow are ridiculing themselves when they claim '50 sorties on 60 Daesh targets' - while they are exclusively hitting civilians in Jobar and Darayya (Eastern Ghouta), Rastan and Talbiseh (hit by 30 FAE bombs yesterday), and Idlib, just not the Daesh.
Aroz---This is what will be ratcheting up the pressure for MANPADs.
Aother day or two of these videos reaching the social media and the Sunni Global Community will demand something to stop the air strikes especially those of the Russians.
Notice the Qatar moves today to unify all fighting groups even IS and JN into a single resistance group and they did listen and acted--and yes even IS is joining.
Meet the "terrorists", #Assad and #Putin are bombing in besieged #FreeSyria's #Homs prov.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl3a1sL6akk …
Tens of thousands are being displaced by the Russian / Assad offensive in #Homs province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3lCtIXwfEQ …
More #IDP/s in #Homs province due to #Assad's and #Putin's bombing raids.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dB90j9MT78 …
One of these four bombed-from-the-air Syrian hospitals caused international outrage. Three were ignored.
UNTIL video footage existed that is.........
BreakingFootage
"Russian" air strike on hospital and @SyriaCivilDef helpers in #Sarmin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ngm5-AvgQ4 …
BLUF---social media is indicating the move to MANPADS is coming--this commenter has been highly accurate in the pass year.
This will force the RuAF into a higher altitude and carry more flares--WILL definitely impact Assad and Russian copters at the lower levels.
I won't say any more, just:
Russian war planes over #Syria will suffer a very unpleasant surprise soon, if my sources are correct.
End.
For that statement he has been receiving massive Russian troll death threats and yet Twitter does not block the Russian trolls.
Azor--if Putin keeps this up the MANPADs will indeed arrive.
Remember it was the Russian Orthodox Church that called for a "Holy War" and the KSA has not forgotten that nor has the KSA FM who was called in a Moscow press conference a "flaming idiot"--mild version of the actual Russian used by the Russian FM for openly stating Assad is the problem he must go.
Russian airstrikes target rescue workers @SyriaCivilDef near a hospital in #Sarmin,#Idlib #Syria Oct21
The West has seen the Russian air strike/artillery results before and yet said nothing---Chechnya---and now exactly as it Chechnya Putin is turning Syria into total destruction and lately in eastern Ukraine where the Russian military flattened complete Ukrainian villages that had nothing to do with any fighting other than they were simply Ukrainian controlled.
And he does not even care.....
Fully agree---but if the civilian deaths rates keep climbing and the videos keep coming--- the Arab Sunni street emotions are going to kick and the MANPADs will come. Especially if Putin's RuAF continues their attacks on hospital, towns and villages.
Right now eastern Ukraine is awash with MANPADs and many are being found daily in hidden mercenary caches and they have not made the black markets yet.
Putin has I believe not fully realized that his actions both in the Ukraine and now Syria are in fact rallying the civil societies in whys he has not seen nor anticipated.
There is a Ukrainian saying from the Maidan--the voice of a nation rests on the courage of it's people.
The way the TOWs are flying the Syrians have found their voices and even today in Aleppo IS is having a hard fight with attacks by the FSA on them and they are slowly making headway against IS.
Rebels fighting Assad-forces south of Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEUOQRuhW-Y …
& the IslamicState north of the city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFOrwt6MeO8 …
You will notice that the mortars and munitions being fired are totally new.