Obama Versus Putin: The Making of Another Great Power Proxy War in the Quicksand of Syria
Ehsan M. Ahrari
The United States has announced that its Special Forces will participate in ground operations in Syria against ISIS. That announcement contradicts President Barack Obama’s previous assurances that there would be no American forces participating in ground operations. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter went beyond the aforementioned statement by noting that such Special Forces operations would increase in the future. Is President Obama breaking his frequently iterated promise of no troops on the ground, or is it just a crucial tactical adjustment? Has he quietly reached a moment of desperation whereby he sees his promise of “no boots on the ground” has been overcome by events (OBEs); or has he decided to outdo Russian President Vladimir Putin in his own determination to take drastic action to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad? At this point, Obama’s decision appears to include factors mentioned in both questions. Putin, for his part, seems to have forgotten that military involvement in a Muslim country may turn out to be too costly for Russia. He seems to have forgotten the lessons of the Afghan war of the 1980s.
Things are not going well for the United States in Syria. Despite its heavy reliance on air power (as an alternative to committing ground troops) to degrade and then eradicate ISIS, the latter has yet to lose its effectiveness. The United States decided to rely on recruiting, training, and equipping the so-called moderate Islamists to fight ISIS. It originally allocated $580 million to train and equip those individuals. But the chief restriction imposed on those recruits was that they would only engage in fighting ISIS and not the Assad regime.
To Washington’s dismay, much of the US-supplied equipment and vehicles quickly fell into the hands of Al-Nusra (an al-Qaeda affiliate). The next twist in the policy, according to the Wall Street Journal, was, instead of training the moderate rebels, it was also to equip them. The “equip” part of the program was to be “dramatically reduced to providing weapons to some 5,000 friendly moderate Syrian rebels to carry on the fight against both ISIS and presumably, against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.” Senator John McCain was spot-on when he observed that the Obama administration’s insistence that rebels fight only against ISIS was a “fundamental flaw.”
The greatest American hesitation has been about providing heavy equipment to the anti-ISIS forces. Sadly, from Washington’s perspective, the pro-American Syrian insurgents have not impressed the American advisors with their fighting capabilities. In addition, their loyalty to the American objectives of ridding the country of ISIS first conflicted with the Syrian insurgents’ own intense desire to defeat pro-regime forces first.
The US-Turkish alliance also suffers from intricate problems of its own. Turkey remains focused on ousting Assad first, but it also remains acutely worried about enabling the Kurdish forces to emerge as an effective fighting force. Ankara has also remained vexed about the possibilities that the territories liberated by the Kurdish forces are likely to become an integral part of Kurdistan, which is the dream of Kurds of all political stripes. Thus, “Turkey appears to be actively working at direct odds with U.S. anti-ISIS strategy, having attacked Kurdish groups in Syria—the same groups that the United States recently armed and counts among its ‘capable partners’….”
The United States, on the contrary, has a high degree of trust in the commitment of the Kurdish forces to fight, degrade, and destroy ISIS. However, it has to be careful about not antagonizing the government of President Recep Erdogan. Thus, while the Kurds are fighting ISIS, they are also frequently targeted by the Turkish Air Force. That is also one more reason why the United States is careful about not increasing the fighting capabilities of the Kurdish forces by supplying them with heavy equipment. There is a great possibility that those arms might also be used against the Turkish forces.
America’s other problem is that no Arab country is ready or willing to commit its ground troops to the Syrian theater of operations. As much as everyone claims to despise ISIS and its ghastly tactics, no Arab regime is willing to commit ground forces and then becoming a powerful target of ISIS global propaganda that it is killing Sunni Muslims.
Russia has studied the modalities of America’s involvement in Iraq and Syria within a Machiavellian framework. If the United States were to be effective in defeating or at least substantially weakening ISIS forces in either of those countries, Russia would have stayed out of the fray. However, President Obama’s overly cautious approach—indeed, his sustained refusal to commit ground troops to Syria or Iraq—has provided Russia with a superb window of opportunity. Putin fired his opening salvo on behalf of Bashara Assad in September 2013, when the latter violated Obama’s declared “red line” by using chemical weapons. As the United States was poised to take limited military action against the Assad regime as punishment, Putin came up with the suggestion that Assad transfer the ownership of his chemical weapons stock to an outside body. The United States readily accepted that palpably sensible proposition. However, the Russian President had an ambitious agenda up his sleeve. He operates as a believer of that old adage: Nature abhors a vacuum (Horror vacui).
Undoubtedly, Russia has been looking for a long-term, if not a permanent, presence in the Middle East, since its ouster from Egypt by President Anwar Sadat in 1972. It has a naval base in Syria, but the potential ouster of Assad from power would have permanently closed that facility. As an integral aspect of his profound desire to reestablish Russia as one of the great powers to have a major say in the future power plays in the Middle East, Putin needed an even a larger Russian presence. He has already made significant overtures by reaching out to the Egyptian dictator, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in the form of arms sales, and promises of further boosting that aspect of Russo-Egyptian ties in the future. Russia has been well on its way to filling that vacuum.
Putin asserted Russia’s influence in Syria with a bang. He sent bombers to Syria ostensibly for bombing ISIS; however, in reality, he started targeting the US-backed Syrian insurgents, who were already facing an uphill battle because of America’s legalistic requirement of vetting them first, training them, and only then supplying them with light weapons. On the contrary, Putin instantly went after the US-backed insurgents for the explicit purpose of weakening or even eradicating them. That was the most assured way of saving the Assad regime, according to his calculations. Bombing ISIS was only his secondary objective, especially considering the fact that the Iranian Quds forces and Hezbollah were already carrying the heavy baggage of fighting ISIS.
Putin plan seems to be working for him, at least for now. Russia has emerged as a major player. He has already entered into negotiations with the United States, Iran, and Saudi Arabia over the future of Syria. The Saudis themselves have approached Moscow to inquire about the modalities of the post-Assad era, a topic that is most irrelevant to Putin as long as Russia and Iran have an upper-hand in the Syrian theater of operations. More to the point, Putin has managed to elevate his country as a coequal of the United States, as the American and Russia military officials have started regularly coordinating their air attack plans to eliminate any potential for a mishap.
The Obama administration has maintained that it has no intention of deploying ground troops in Syria. Thus, the decision to insert a small number of US Special Forces is merely a tactical adjustment. As President Obama is becoming increasingly focused on his legacy of not becoming a party to another war in Syria, Putin seems to have calculated that the path to Russia’s advantage leads through the battlefields of Syria, especially while Moscow’s ally, Iran, is bearing the major brunt of the ground fight and the resultant losses in its war against ISIS.
The Syrian conflict has all the markings of transforming itself into another proxy war between two major powers a la the Afghanistan war of the 1980s. One feature of that war materialized when Putin decided to plunge his country into the Syrian quagmire. The ghosts of the Afghan war are awakening in the battlefields of Syria, when one considers the fact that heavy weapons are once again emerging as the game changer of winning that conflict. While reports surged that the Russian bombing decimated the heavy weapons used by ISIS fighters, there was also a report that the United States and Saudi Arabia were supplying heavy weapons to pro-US forces. In the meantime, 55 Saudi Wahhabi clerics have declared a Jihad against the Russian forces. As consummate practitioners of Machiavellian power game, one can be rest assured that Putin’s advisors are busy calculating the long-term implications of their boss’ decision to plunge them into the quicksand of Syria.
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Putin is actually even messier than Obama right now and getting far more dangerous as I am not so sure he fully understands just what reality is as he has bought far to much into his very own propaganda......
Putin called USA meddling in Ukraine "attempt to hinder resurrection of the USSR."
https://twitter.com/5_513/status/678583296603856896
… pic.twitter.com/X9lAaKnTdg
Strange just how history catches up with Putin....." is seems Russia/Soviet Union has been using the concept of "vacationing truck drivers/coal miners" for over 30 plus years...AND the West falls for it every time....
In the 1980s, the Soviet Union sent thousands of soldiers disguised as tourists to Syria
http://nyti.ms/1OgP9HM
pic.twitter.com/5UJoPuaGWP
THIS is the ground reality to the propaganda pushed by the 100% Russian government Sputnik International media outlet above.......
BREAKING
The title alone is groundbreaking! Lots of details in new @hrw report.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/20/...ster-munitions …
Schools, homes, market, IDP camp attacked with cluster munitions in Syria/Russia op. -
@hrw http://bit.ly/1YtSWac
Blood on the ground of an IDP camp after 9M79-series Tochka ballistic missile attack
http://bit.ly/1YtSWac #Syria
Surprised that this particular US journalist although considered to be a Progressive would allow himself to be wrapped up in a blatant propaganda piece....
Sputnik @SputnikInt ·
http://sptnkne.ws/aszq
Appears to be the Putin viewpoint of the Obama "collapse".......
Neocons and Assad Haters Outraged: Obama 'Accepts Russia's Stance' on Syria
Politics
17:31 20.12.2015
Quote:
President Barack Obama appears to have finally abandoned the Assad must go stance and agreed that the Syrians are the ones who can and will decide the future of their country – something Russia has long advocated, investigative journalist Robert Parry asserted.
Although this is a positive development for Syria, US hardliners and their Middle Eastern allies, who tried to push through a "regime change" scenario in Syria, are not happy about it.
"Obama finally ceded to the more democratically defensible position that the Syrian people should pick their own leaders. After all, if Obama is right about how much the Syrian people hate Assad, elections would empower them to implement their own 'regime change' through the ballot box," the analyst observed. "But that uncertain outcome is not what the [neocons] want. They want a predetermined result – Assad's ouster – regardless of the Syrian people's wishes."
Parry's opinion piece came in response to a Washington Post editorial, chastising the Obama administration for what they see as an about-face following four years of a (failed) "Assad-must-go" strategy.
Matter of True Intentions: This is Why Washington Does Not Want to Send Troops to Syria
"The more immediate issue is the Post's fury over the prospect that the Syrian people would be allowed to vote on Assad's future rather than have it dictated by neocon think tanks, Islamic jihadist rebels and their Turkish-Saudi-Qatari-Israeli-CIA backers," the journalist noted.
For the Washington Post, democratic elections in Syria are "a likely recipe for an impasse." The United Nations Security Council does not see it this way.
On Friday, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution designed to create a roadmap towards peace in the war-torn country. The agreement sets a timeframe for a ceasefire followed by the UN supervised "free and fair" elections in Syria.
The document does not say whether Assad can or cannot take part in the election, but Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other Sunni states will make every effort to prevent him from running.
Assad "is an Alawite, an offshoot of Shia Islam. Further condemning Assad in their eyes, he seeks to maintain a secular government that protects Christians, Alawites, Shiites and other minorities," Parry explained.
'I Was Already Packing': Assad 'Thanks' West for 'Allowing' Him to Lead His Own Country
Middle Eastern powers, who want to see Assad gone, share this sentiment with Israel and Official Washington's alliance of neoconservatives and liberal interventionists, as the journalist describes them.
The latter "have made Assad's ouster a cause célèbre despite the disastrous experiences overthrowing other secular regimes in Iraq and Libya," Parry observed.
In the past, the US president, according to the investigative journalist, "has been highly sensitive" to what this group thinks. But recent developments suggest that Obama might have opted for pragmatism instead of "neocon/liberal-hawk ideological desires."
AND Putin's troops are not fighting along side the Shia mercenary army in Syrian.....?????
Russian T-90A made its combat debut in Khan Tuman, Southern Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXGskZYJSnI …
DID the Obama Iran Deal cover this????
FINALLY after 82 straight days of social media carrying the evidence of the Russian AF deliberating attacking and killing civilians and critical civilian infrastructure FINALLY MSM picks it up....
NOTICE that all western leaders ignore social media reporting on this genocide YET perk up with MSM carries the same exact story...WHY is that???
Russia is following the Assad regime's strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure. Great work by @LizSly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russian-airstrikes-for… …
AND YET this is what social media has been carrying for over 82 days now and silence from the West......
50+ dead after #Russia'n airstrikes on school, court & other buildings in #Idlib city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Txwuv-fVwqQ&feature=youtu.be …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSSSojtZcEA …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5r2Uwq30g4 …
WHEN Putin is backed into a corner by the social media truth vs his very own State driven info warfare we get this not so subtle threat or a variation of this threat coupled with a nuclear attack threat.
Putin plays nicely on such fears being voiced in various MSM articles.
Hopefully Global War will not happen, that would be planetary catastrophe - Putin
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/20-december-hopefully-global-war-wi… …
Putin himself has now triggered the First Middle Eastern War and is siding fully with the Shia......
Islamic State Air Force again appears to be hitting the completely WRONG targets...BUT Putin states and has stated he is attacking and destroying IS....MAYBE the Islamic State Air Force has the wrong maps, poor GPS or simply bad pilots.........lately the ISAF seems to be simply killing civilians.......NOT a single IS position within literally miles of this town....
BreakingFootage
Heavy air strikes hit occupied #Rastan city in #Syria's #Homs prov.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_OK3-iAeMA …
If you have Russian friends or followers, feel free to share the above post.
There is no clearer evidence of the Kremlin's lies on Syria!
BUT HEY we have based on Kerry and Obama....."a milestone...."?
"MILESTONES" do not stop the killing of civilians and right now it appears the US fully supports that killing......
CAN the "real anarchist in the world please stand up"......????
AND the "Islamic State Air Force" is back at work killing civilians today.....
Russia air strikes hit civilians in #Idlib #Syria over 40 casualties 150 civil injured
pic.twitter.com/uhhzRWD7eQ
The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
Idlib City. 20/12/15. 43 killed, more than 150 injured. Teams attribute attacks to Russian bombs.
The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
Six air strikes on Idlib city today.
APPEARS that the "Islamic State Air Force" cannot find their own IS positions...so the common conclusion is THEY are to not bomb Is positions.....BUT that is not what Putin stated before the UNGA is it??
NOT a single comment from Kerry, Obama, his NSC, and the entire UNSC on the massive killing of civilians by the "Islamic State Air Force".
BUT WAIT we have based on Kerry's comment...."a milestone"...whatever the heck that means in the face of genocide and ethnic cleansing being carried out by Assad, Putin and Iran......
Why do we have an anarchy mess right now??......think about it for a moment and do not exclude the roles played by Obama and Kerry right now and since 2011.
Anyway, in essence, we've got a sort of 'I Middle Eastern War' now:
- Russians are back to attempting to de-stabilize Turkey by providing arms to the PKK; Turkey reacts with a big-scale military offensive against the PKK;
- Russians are attempting to complete Assadist efforts to ethnically cleanse Sunnis out of Syria by widespread deployment of CBUs against civilian population in insurgent-held areas - while claiming to be 'bombing Daesh', which is nonsense;
- Saudis are BS-itting around in Yemen (they've just spoiled another cease-fire and UN-sponsored peace negotiations by driving into northern Yemen), and thus too busy but to take care about Syria;
- Iraq is de-facto split between areas controlled by Iranian-puppet regime in Baghdad, Kurds, and the Daesh.
- ...and to describe Syria as a total mess (foremost to lack of Western action, and Russians openly taking sides without any kind of serious Western opposition), would be an understatement...
Meanwhile I'm sure this is going to keep all of us busy for another decade.
We urgently need to get back to the discussion on how Russian uses in their UW strategy non linear warfare especially the one of two key cornerstones...informational warfare..in both Syria and the eastern Ukraine....
If one truly wants to understand Russian info warfare being poured out daily by the minute that conforms to the Russian 6Ds propaganda doctrine just browse this short selection from one of the worst Russian propaganda outlets "Sputnik International" totally owned by the Russian government......notice the Twitter hashtags they focus on.....
Sputnik @SputnikInt · 4m4 minutes ago
A matter of true intensions: why Washington does not want to send troops to #Syria
http://sptnkne.ws/asug #Daesh
Sputnik @SputnikInt · 15m15 minutes ago
Is #SaudiCoalition created to challenge Russia, Iran in #Syria?
http://sptnkne.ws/astV #Daesh #waronterror
Sputnik @SputnikInt · 26m26 minutes ago
#Turkey eyes building pipeline to receive #gas from Israel – reports
http://sptnkne.ws/astK
Sputnik @SputnikInt · 36m36 minutes ago
Not US job to call for #Assad's resignation – @MartinOMalley
http://sptnkne.ws/astF #DemDebate #Syria
Sputnik @SputnikInt · 46m46 minutes ago
#Crimea’s Tatars slam #Turkey over aggressive stance towards Russia
http://sptnkne.ws/ast8 #BackStabbed #Su24
In 2011 Assad said it clearly and even wrote it on the walls of Syrian towns.
"Either Assad or nobody. Either Assad or we burn the country".
Assad's shabiha wrote "Assad or we burn the country" in 2011. Now tell me he's not responsible for what they say.
pic.twitter.com/eOquS2SvQc
Now Putin is "burning" the country and the West simply looks on and says nothing just as they have for the last 4.5 years.
Obama has known this for those 4.5 years and has basically ignored the problem thus the mess.....and then to pull the Arab League 2012 proposal out of a hat and claim "UNSC greatness as a step forward" just reinforces this illusion that he is doing something.
April 20, 2011:
Amazing (& foretelling) report by the late Anthony Shadid on the early popular protests in Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/21/wo...yria.html?_r=0
Taken from the Syria 2015 thread......
Quote:
What does #Russia do when rebels are battling #ISIS around Mare’a, #Aleppo? They bomb the rebels of course. Luckily no casualties today.
Wait a second, please: Russian bombs have missed?
I'm shocked. Shocked...
Quote:
Muslims from Russia Now Living in Turkey against Moscow but Not for ISIS
Wh...oh, there are Moslems that aren't Daesh terrorists...?
No end of wonders today... Is it already Christmas?
Quote:
BREAKING: #Turkey announces troop withdrawal from Iraq after Obama appeal: ministry - AFP
SO what did Obama have to do to get the Turk buy in.....MORE TOWs......
There are even 'better' news today. US aircraft seem to have hit the 55th Brigade ISF today, killing either 20 or 30.
Of course, Iranian puppets in Baghdad - and RT - are having a field day: why to hell should anybody care the coordinates were provided by the Iraqis themselves? Or about the fact that the other half of the 55th went to Syria, in form of Hezbollah/Iraq's 'pilgrims to Sayyida Zaynab'...?
The only thing surprising here: nobody comes to the idea to call for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Almost pity not to get a chance to see if the IRGC can at least find the Daesh, not to talk about fighting it...
Has the Obama indecisiveness created the total mess the ME is in right now---or was he so wrapped up in not rocking Iran for his Iran Deal that he could not see the trees for the forest....??
So current situation: Russia is
1. creating civilian massacre in Syria, saving Assad, NOT fighting ISIS.
2. arming PKK
3. arming Houthis
So there is intense fighting going on on TURKISH SOIL here...
Didn't Putin send arms to PKK after SU24 was downed?
Yes, Iranians have been smuggling large quantities of Russian weapons to PKK:
Russian Propaganda Channel Anna News at SU24 crash site. But looks like randomly placed aircraft items in forest.
Question: how is is possible that some seemingly random militia can take over a Saudi border post????
Answer: because RUSSIA IS ARMING THEM!!!!
So Russia is instigating war between Turkey and PKK because of #SU24 downing.
Russia's hybrid war on NATO-member...
ISLAMIC STATE AIR FORCE AND ASSAD'S AIR FORCE IN ACTION OVER SYRIA NOW GOING ON 81 DAYS
And the anti Assad forces ie FSA and Sham are still resisting and taking territory from both Assad and IS.......
AND Obama still thinks there is no military solution and that a "ceasefire and elections will work wonders for Syria just as it did for the Ukraine???".......WE have seen this type of Russian ceasefire in Minsk 1 and 2---when Putin is involved the ceasefire is really just a "fighting ceasefire".
Let's see....Kerry goes to Moscow to help save Putin's face, Russia says it will support the US in the UNSC but then takes credit for the US proposal AND then this.......
Is this the road map to peace?
Putin says Russia ready to increase military role in Syria
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...vladimir-putin …
AND Obama claims there is no way the civil war can be won just as he stated for the UAF in eastern Ukraine because he has no ground troops BUT he does have the Syrian civil society and the UAF has all but stopped the Russian military and mercenaries in their tracks--BUT this below is why Putin is now having to expand his own war in Syria.......
Mare'a, #Aleppo - Between #ISIS bombs & #Russia|n cluster munitions that target civilians & rebels fighting #ISIS
http://youtu.be/Srb4IXYq7ec
Devestating blow to regime, more than 50 presidential guard forces inc. 7 officers killed in the last 2 days in Marj, E. Ghouta, #Damascus
Rebels own urban fighting. It's their land, dignity, and people they fight for and Assad's best crack squad won't stop it
Major development in both Iraq and Syria if anyone knows al Duri.......who spun JRTN out of the IAI Islamic Army of Iraq the largest Sunni insurgent group up to about 2008.
Izzat al-Duri's #JRTN, once an ally of #IS, is "joining" #Saudi-led anti-
#IS coalition.
How times change--driven by the KSA NOT the US........this is the move that needed to be seen if the Sunni are going to take care of IS themselves.
Pres Obama just said US respects Iran's demand to keep supply lines open to Hezbollah, which has thousands of missiles aimed at Israel.
So much for the territorial integrity of Syria.....????????
Well at least Obama is now on record for fully accepting and supporting Khomeini's Revolutionary Islam and the Green Crescent.......
BUT WAIT maybe Obama did not know that Khomeini marched into Lebanon to assist in the civil war BUT Hezbollah never got into the fight..... maybe Obama should ask SWJ for some historical background on Khomeini's many speech's on the topic......
The Green Crescent goes from AFG to Lebanon and is the vehicle for implementing Khomeini's Revolutionary Islam.......
Remember both Kerry and Obama love soft power ie negotiations
BUT really what as it gotten them in eastern Ukraine and now Syria....really nothing.....
Now let me carefully point out how fxxxxxxing stupid the UNSC is (excuse my French, there's no sugar coating this anymore)
This sounds EXACTLY like the deal negotiated by the Arab League in 2012. How's Syria been since then?
CNN Türk ENG @CNNTURK_ENG
Draft UNSC reso endorses prev agreed timeline for creating transitional Syrian govt&holding UN-monitored elections.
pic.twitter.com/UI4Fr7ZNmt
A UNSC draft resolution means nothing if the armed parties don't agree to it. There's no evidence that will happen https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/status/677943332908179457 …
AND Obamas response is again exactly what.......
“There’s only so much bombing you can do,” Obama says of frustration of Syrians with Assad
BUT does he use the simple word-genocide and that Assad is a war criminal--not really.......does not want to rock the Iranian and Putin boat with a confrontation......
Another reason for the Obama mess in Syria and eastern Ukraine.......
Like I've told you 100 times, Obama WH is clique-ridden, incompetent, inefficient, micro-managerial + vindictive.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/18/hagel-the-white-house-tried-to-dest… …
Ever notice how US MSM articles actually support the Russian info warfare narrative/propaganda pushed by Putin and the Russian MoD when it comes to Turkey.........?
Doug Bandow
Senior Fellow, the Cato Institute
Dump New Ottomans from NATO: Shoot Down of Russian Plane Shows Turkey to be Dangerous Ally
Posted: 12/18/2015 6:40 am EST Updated: 25 minutes ago
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-b...000592&ref=yfp
Russian #SU24 blackbox data is damaged...
Of course!
It would have shown it violated Turkish airspace.
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...09844385128448
BTW--the SU24 literally went down in flames and exploded on impact/burnt out and yet the black box shown in Moscow had not a single trace of fire damage...strange??
For those SWJ readers who honesty think that Obama did not create the so called Syrian mess......yes he did---wonder if he and or Kerry would like to respond to Assad's recent interview.......?????
Assad on @Nieuwsuur interview:
I was packing my bags to leave but now I stay thanks to Kerry & France [who now say Assad is part of solution especially Kerry after his Moscow visit].
OR
Assad on the UN & in effect, UN led transition: "The UN is a biased institution..it is under the control of the US"
http://sana.sy/en/?p=64343
AND Obama is not the problem....??
Has anyone noticed that when the WH talks about it's inability to have ground forces confront IS THERE is a distinct lack of a conversation around the FSA---and that extends even into the US MSM which all but ignores the FSA who is daily fighting with and gaining ground on IS while being attacked by Assad's SAA which is really just a Shia mercenary army from Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militia, Iranian IRGC and Shia fighters from 12 different countries.
BUT not a single thorough well done analysis of the FSA.
Iyad El-Baghdadi @iyad_elbaghdadi
The level of trolling is just epic. Syrian foreign ministry: FSA can join Assad's army if it makes some changes. https://twitter.com/RTarabic/status/677808194597572608 …
Iyad El-Baghdadi @iyad_elbaghdadi
The FSA was formed by professional Syrian soldiers who defected from Assad's army. Assad is their first, worst, and forever enemy.
FSA is slowly but steadily winning and why should they then join a genocidal army under leadership of a genocidal dictator?????
FSA and the majority of the anti Assad forces have repeatedly stated to the US---help us eliminate Assad and then we can turn our attention to IS..(a Syrian solution against the IS Syrian problem)..this is actually what needs to be done BUT then why does this WH not do it????
So again explain to me just how is it that Kerry and or Obama fully understand when Putin is telling the truth or when he is actually lying....how can one conduct foreign affairs when your so called partner is constantly lying???
JUST what the heck does this mean----so did Putin lie or not lie......????
Guess he lied as always.....
Kremlin warns against misinterpreting Putin's words on involvement of Russians in Donbas
http://tass.ru/en/politics/845249 … via @tassagency_en
He has fully realized what he admitted fully to in a televised press conference in full public view....and is desperately trying to roll it back......
Kind of reminds me of recent Kerry press comments......that suddenly needed additional DoS clarifications.....
SO I guess all those Russian troops captured inside eastern Ukraine in full Russian uniforms carrying Russian military IDs do not count.
Only volunteers from Russia fought in Donbass, other interpretations about troops from Russia are wrong - Kremlin. https://twitter.com/KFM936/status/677779788333977600 …
AND those 9,000 identified Russian personnel and their units are not inside the Ukraine....????
Putin lies again and again and again...........
What shall one do when a #Russian MOD employee exposes the entire 200th MR brig in #Ukraine?
https://informnapalm.org/17262-spets...yya-v-ukraynu/ …
pic.twitter.com/vBRJtUR0V5
Even Obama's lack of a FP for Syria is "messing" up the so called German "moral compass"..........
According to @BILD, German Federal Intelligence Service works again with #Syria, wants to open a permanent station. https://twitter.com/BILD_Politik/status/677813123483459584 …
Let's remember Hitler, the SS and the gas chambers BUT let's "forget"
THAT it is the Assad Security Services that continue to have 200,000 prisoners in their torture prisons, that thousands were arrested, tortured and killed and thousands simply disappeared AND Assad has contributed to the genocidal killing of over 350,000 Syrians........AND Assad is still using starvation, barrel bombs and chemical weapons as are the Russians via their cluster munitions and WP on Syrian civilians.....
BUT WAIT our German CIA "moral compass" is not out of whack.....????????
BY no US leadership anywhere to be seen in the ME outside of the legacy "Iran Deal" this is what we get..........
WHAT is interesting in the Russian FSB request to delete data on a Canadian server claiming national security----overlooks Putin's own press conferene statements yesterday....
NAMELY he is not "fighting at all" in Syria--the Russian military is on an "exercise" thus since the troops are on an exercise and not fighting in a war appears to me that the problem lies within the lack of Russian MoD OPSEC.
MEANING if they could stop their own soldiers from posting to their own mainly Russian VK facebook pages and they stopped posting their own VK posted selfies then the Ukrainian social media account would have nothing to analyze.
Appears to me the Russian MoD has a very serious OPSEC problem---even their eastern Ukrainian troops are still posting to their social media accounts and that includes GRU Spetsnaz personnel........
In this ongoing Syrian thread discussions in multiple articles we have seemed to have forgotten what started this whole mess to begin with ---Russian aggression against the Ukraine using their UW non linear warfare strategy.
The two key cornerstones of that UW strategy rests on cyber warfare/cyber criminal activities and informational warfare.
After Putin's press conference yesterday we know the true reason he is in Syria--to test the new Russian weapons and weapons systems, their air strike abilities and just how the new military reforms have worked using a real time war AND then calling it yesterday An EXERCISE........
We have largely forgotten in the last 18 months to apply that non linear warfare to Syria.
NOW the Russian military is testing their cyber warfare capabilities under "live fire conditions" in support to their political warfare against Turkey.
Hurriyet Daily reports Russian cyber attack on Turkish government & business online platforms
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-under-cyberattack-by-russia-rep… …
SO when will Obama and Kerry call the spade what it is--open Russian military aggression in now two locations--eastern Ukraine and now Syria.
When will Obama/Kerry finally call out the Russian AF genocide being conducted under the name of Putin.
AND it is just not cyber attacks on Turkey.......
Latest @InformNapalm piece making #FSB & Ru #MOD freak out by deleting the entire profile.
https://informnapalm.org/17262-spets...yya-v-ukraynu/ …
pic.twitter.com/CJ6IZDHba5
BREAKING @vicenews reports #Russia has officially asked #Canada to close @InformNapalm srvrs
https://news.vice.com/article/a-ukrainian-website-is-outing-russian-sol… …
pic.twitter.com/ugOKh64HSC
NOT so subtle cyber attack threats against major social media accounts that have been countering Russian info warriors for over 18 months.....
Expect @InformNapalm/@bellingcat etc to receive massive state backed attacks against infrastructure & individuals.
Russia open to Assad's ouster after Syria transition: diplomats
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mi...0U032R20151217 …
BUT WAIT......did not DoS Kerry singal the US intentions in Moscow of allowing Assad to remain in for the transition for a total of two more years....he has far more Syrian blood on his hands THAN all of what IS has done in Syria since 2011......
SO when does DoS Kerry finally admit they have no strategy, plan, innovative ideas on Syria that counter their own instituted "retrenchment" that has caused this ME chaos to begin with.
IF true some of us here pointed out this Russian development when Putin announced his air deployment along with AD weeks ago.
AND we even wonder why Obama is in his mess....???
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ampaign=buffer
New Russian Air Defenses in Syria Keep U.S. Grounded
Dec 17, 2015 1:00 PM EST
By Josh Rogin & Eli Lake
Quote:
There is a new crisis for the international effort to destroy the Islamic State, created by the Kremlin. The U.S. has stopped flying manned air-support missions for rebels in a key part of northern Syria due to Russia’s expansion of air defense systems there, and the Barack Obama administration is scrambling to figure out what to do about it.
Russia’s military operations inside Syria have been expanding in recent weeks, and the latest Russian deployments, made without any advance notice to the U.S., have disrupted the U.S.-led coalition's efforts to support Syrian rebel forces fighting against the Islamic State near the Turkey-Syria border, just west of the Euphrates River, several Obama administration and U.S. defense officials told us. This crucial part of the battlefield, known inside the military as Box 4, is where a number of groups have been fighting the Islamic State for control, until recently with overhead support from U.S. fighter jets.
But earlier this month, Moscow deployed an SA-17 advanced air defense system near the area and began “painting” U.S. planes, targeting them with radar in what U.S. officials said was a direct and dangerous provocation. The Pentagon halted all manned flights, although U.S. drones are still flying in the area. Russia then began bombing the rebels the U.S. had been supporting.
Inside the top levels of the administration, officials are debating what to do next. The issue is serious enough that Secretary of State John Kerry raised it with Russian President Vladimir Putin when they met on Tuesday, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General John Dunford has discussed it with his Russian counterpart as well, a spokesman for U.S. Air Force Central Command told us.
"The increasing number of Russian-supplied advanced air defense systems in Syria, including SA-17s, is another example that Russia and the regime seek to complicate the global counter-Daesh coalition’s air campaign,” said Major Tim Smith, using another term for the Islamic State.
The increasing number of Russian air defense systems further complicate an already difficult situation over the skies in Syria, and do nothing to advance the fight against the Islamic State, which has no air force, Smith said. He added that Russia could instead be using its influence with the regime to press President Bashar al-Assad to cease attacking civilians. “Unhelpful actions by Russia and the Syrian regime will not stop coalition counter-Daesh operations in Syria, nor will such actions push the coalition away from specific regions in Syria where Daesh is operating,” said Smith.
In Washington, top officials are debating how to respond to Russia's expanded air defenses, said another administration official who was not authorized to discuss internal deliberations. The administration could decide to resume flights in support of the rebels fight Islamic State, but that could risk a deadly incident with the Russian military. For now, the U.S. seems to be acquiescing to Russia’s effort to keep American manned planes out of the sky there and "agree to their rules of the game," the administration official said.
With U.S. planes out of the way, Russia has stepped up its own airstrikes along the Turkey-Syria border, and the Obama administration has accused it of targeting the rebel groups the U.S. was supporting, not the Islamic State. The Russian strikes are also targeting commercial vehicles passing from Turkey into Syria, the administration official told us. The Washington Post reported that the Russian strikes have resulted in a halt of humanitarian aid from Turkey as well.
These heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia on the ground run counter to the public outreach Kerry has been pursuing as part of his effort to kick-start a peace process between the Syrian regime and the opposition. In remarks at the Kremlin Tuesday, Kerry said he was “grateful for President Putin” and looked forward to cooperating with Russia on the fight against the Islamic State. Kerry will meet with Russian leaders again Friday in New York.
Kerry also said the U.S. is not pursuing “regime change” in Syria, comments that were seen by many as another step away from the long-held U.S. call for Assad to step down. The latest U.S.-Russia talks didn’t focus on Assad’s status, Kerry said, adding that he was working to establish a political process that would allow Syrians to choose their own leadership.
While the diplomacy drags on, the Russian military continues to place Assad in a stronger position and constrain the coalitions' operations, said Matthew McInnis, a former Iran analyst for U.S. Central Command and now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “The Russians are trying to create zones where they would have to give permission for U.S. flights,” he said. “The Russians are increasingly defining the military landscape by their actions.”
McInnis said he has heard other Western diplomats express concern about how much the U.S. may give in to the Russian and Syrian position to get a cease-fire. "There is definitely some nervousness about how far the administration is willing to go to accommodate the Russian position on Assad," he said.
Robert Ford, Obama’s former ambassador to Syria, said the Russians may have another motive in expanding their military operations in northern Syria: to put pressure on Turkey. Russian-Turkish relations have turned ugly since Turkey shot down a Russian plane near its border last month. Turkey is keenly interested in the Box 4 region in Syria because it supports the Sunni Arab groups fighting there, working covertly with the U.S.
“The Russians are doing this to squeeze the Turks," said Ford. "It’s going to cause problems for the CIA program."
The actual number of U.S. flights that were supporting Syrian groups in this area was not large. Officials told us that Defense Secretary Ash Carter had been resisting a more comprehensive air campaign in the area for two reasons: Some of the groups fighting there are not vetted and include Islamic brigades, including the al-Nusrah Front. Also, Carter prefers a strategy of supporting Syrian Kurds with weapons and having them take over the border territory.
But the Syrian Arabs and the Turks don’t want Kurdish troops to control Box 4, said Ford, because then the Kurds would then have a proto-state reaching all the way from the Mediterranean Sea to the Iran-Iraq border.
The success of any U.S.-led effort to bring Assad to the negotiating table will depend on squeezing the Syrian regime. Yet at this crucial moment, the U.S. is not only decreasing pressure, but acquiescing to Russian pressure. This benefits not only Assad and Russia, but also the Islamic State.
Bill C---do take notice---after the Obama TOTAL retrenchment and it is actually abandonment not retrenchment a la Wilson 1920 all over again with the same dire results we will be seeing in the next ten years.
Big #Putin show in #Russia'n TV channels -new self-proclaimed global policeman after #USA withdrawn
WHO would have ever thought Putin would be the next "worlds policeman"...??
Meanwhile, #Russia-n firms massively investing in Silicon Valley start ups
http://rbth.com/science_and_tech/2015/12/09/american-startups-succeed-w… …
BUT they already control via oligarch investments and the Russian info warfare trolls FB, Twitter and YouTube....
So why is it the WH looks the other way.....?
Newest Obama and Kerry FP follows the mantra "Might makes right"......
NOW check who is going to whom and tell me the US has not totally retrenched to the standards of Wilson in the 1920s........
Kerry says to go to Moscow next week for Syria, Ukraine talks http://reut.rs/1QvhT4o
AND this after the Biden speech this week...???????
Let's see Putin has kicked up the fighting a heavy notch in eastern Ukraine and is killings civilians by the hundreds now and the US goes where exactly....??
We would need to see roughly 55 Paris attacks to match the number of Syrians killed in the last two months of the "Islamic State AF" bombings using dumb bombs, cluster munitions and WP.
AND the US Nobel Peace Prize winner is again where........????
At a moment when much of the world is once more engaged in a furious debate about the balance between safety and freedom, the Chancellor is asking a great deal of the German people, and by their example, the rest of us as well. To be welcoming. To be unafraid. To believe that great civilizations build bridges, not walls, and that wars are won both on and off the battlefield. By viewing the refugees as victims to be rescued rather than invaders to be repelled, the woman raised behind the Iron Curtain gambled on freedom. The pastor’s daughter wielded mercy like a weapon. You can agree with her or not, but she is not taking the easy road. Leaders are tested only when people don’t want to follow. For asking more of her country than most politicians would dare, for standing firm against tyranny as well as expedience and for providing steadfast moral leadership in a world where it is in short supply, Angela Merkel is TIME’s Person of the Year.
Again the question where is the US "moral" leadership anywhere in the current world events....nowhere to be seen nor heard.....Wilson of the 1920s here we come.....
THAT is why we have a mess in Syria....
We are in this Obama mess simply because he says absolutely nothing---did the same exact thing in eastern Ukraine.......
A Nobel Peace Prize winner has the moral statue to say something anything about war crimes against humanity and the needless killing of civilians by Assad and Putin AF that cannot hit the broad side of a barn in the middle of the desert with nothing around it to confuse the pilot......
Some of the worst pictures, I've ever seen coming out of Hamouriyah after an Assad/Putin airstrike massacre.
I can't even look at them...as they explode the reality of what is defined as "Graphic"...
WILL not release them......but if Hollande and any other Western leader is thinking of joining Putin think twice before being tied to a war criminal......as the air strikes of the "Islamic State Air Force" is in fact openly and aggressively targeting civilians....AND NOT IS......
A comment yesterday by the US ambassador to Ukraine is the perfect example of just why the Obama administration has completely failed to push back on the Russian info warfare....
He stated that you cannot comment on all Russian lies as that would waste time and that is what Russia wants you to do...BUT here is the key-- push back on a single narrative and the other Russian narrative lies fall like a castle made of cards as they are all interwoven and follow a common thread---openly with truth disprove one and the rest fall it is that simple and does not take a lot of effort.
This particular German MSM Political Editor cut his teeth on social media on Syrian and the Ukraine before going to BILD and since taking over--he is elegantly countering Russian info warfare to the point that he now has his on Tag line in the Sputnik International the largest Russian info warfare media outlet and then this today.
IF you can force the entire Russian info war to focus on you and your responses you are in fact "winning"-that alone is no small feat in this business of info warfare----if he can do this why not the entire US government??
It must start from the top down.
Russia Insider
@RussiaInsider A great example of the crazy #propaganda common in #German #MSM. @BILD @JulianRoepcke - stop lying!_
http://russia-insider.com/en/weird-phantasies-bild-writer-julian-roepck… …
His article below triggered this Russian response......in German..
BILD-Artikel zu Rebellenvideo aus Syrien gegen #ISIS-Hasspropaganda und gezielte Vorurteile
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/isis/zeigt-vorgetaeuschte-hinrichtun… …
We are in this Obama mess as he and the other western leaders basically tried to ignore the Syrian civil society demands being made towards Assad a dictator in 2011...by ignoring this particular civil society they slowly became radicalized simply in order to protect and defend themselves against a genocidal dictator.
Core question that needs to be asked--DID Obama do this to get his Iran Deal and not rock the Khamenei boat?????
This comment and video goes directly to the retrenchment policy of Obama in the entire ME.......
These people cheered democratic goals until 2011.
Thanks to Assad, they cheer tunnel bombs now, have radicalized to survive a genocidal dictator who has killed over 300,000 Syrians by his use of starvation, chemical weapons, barrel bombs and arresting over 250K and throwing them in torture prisons and now via the Russian use of cluster munitions and WP and air strikes on churches, market places, hospitals and critical infrastructure for food and water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qqvp4fGR1w …
Blast power needs 7 seconds to get through the tunnel to its entrance.
https://twitter.com/sakirkhader/status/674567617227702276 …
From Sputnik International
http://sputniknews.com/russia/20151208/1031440646/putin-su-24-black-box…
Developing.....Putin hopes that nuclear warheads "will never be needed" in fight against Daesh
IS this man seriously considering the use of nuclear arms vs. people he doesn't like and can label "ISIS"??
WHY else would he be mentioning this in a Russian info warfare media outlet owned by the Russian government????
Putin loves threatening the use of nuclear weapons just as he has done in eastern Ukraine AND there is no connection between eastern Ukraine and Syria......a big one....
From Sputnik International
stnkne.ws/anA6
Developing.....Putin hopes that nuclear warheads "will never be needed" in fight against Daesh
IS this man seriously considering the use of nuclear arms vs. people he doesn't like and can label "ISIS"??
WHY else would he be mentioning this in a Russian info warfare media outlet owned by the Russian government????
Putin loves threatening the use of nuclear weapons just as he has done in eastern Ukraine AND there is no connection between eastern Ukraine and Syria......a big one....
Russian information warfare............
Screening of documentary “WAR 2020. Russia’s information aggression” &discussion at LT PermRep December 14, 6 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fkPjcYCLWHk …
Seeing is believing. Must see documentary for everyone willing to get to grips with Ru info war strategy&tactics https://twitter.com/jovita_pra/statu...78430578122752
Watchdog Progressive @Watchdogsniffer
WP Has Been Mentioning & Tracking This --> Fascism is all the rage in Europe, and it’s coming to America - http://www.salon.com/2015/12/08/fascism_is_all_the_rage_in_europe_and_i… …
There is something in this article that goes to explain Putin's
current actions......has been there since the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine in the summer of 2014.....it explains the constant Putin argument "that it is the fault of everyone else especially the US BUT absolutely not Russia's fault". I can if I count list at least ten different Putin arguments using the article below......
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.de/...ganda-its.html
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
‘Russian World’ Isn’t Propaganda; It’s Psychotherapy for Russians, Analyst Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, December 8 – “Under the conditions of the specific Russian culture of today, the ‘Russian world’ fulfills an important role,” Maksim Goryunov says. “The myth of the ‘Russian world’ helps people to hold out when they find themselves in complicated and unbearable circumstances.”
The Russian analyst says that “if an individual who grows up in the Russian cultural climate is not able to make a career, keep a family or maintain a business … the myth about the ‘Russian world’ helps him to avoid throwing up his hands or turning to vodka” (forbes.ru/mneniya-column/tsennosti/306971-russkii-mir-kak-zashchita-ot-otchayaniya).
And thus it is important to understand that “the ‘Russian world’ is not propaganda” and was not dreamed up in a Kremlin office. It existed long before pro-Kremlin talking heads mentioned it. It “exists now, and it will exist tomorrow when the hysteria [about it finally] settles down.”
Goryunov devotes his article to explaining why this is so and how the myth of the “Russian world” works. First of all, he says, “the ‘Russian world’ by accusing Jews/Caucasians/Asians for all their misfortunes removes the feeling of guilt for their own failures.”
Guilt is a destructive emotion, and people run from it. The “Russian world” is one mechanism that helps them do so. If a Russian loses his job, he isn’t guilty. The Zionists or the Americans or someone else is. That isn’t so important; what matters is that the Russian himself or herself never is. And he or she doesn’t not have to face reality or take responsibility.
But in this respect, “the ‘Russian world’ is like opium for the people about which Marx spoke, “an ideological opium” that may help people get through tough times but that through overuse strips them of the capacity for action, Goryunov suggests.
A second way that the “Russian world” performs a psychotherapeutic function has to do with the victims it identifies. Sometimes, Russians talk about White Russian emigres who were driven into poverty abroad by the Zionists; more often, they talk about the Russian Cossacks who have suffered so much.
“As a rule,” Goryunov writes, “Russian men who have suffered a major failure sooner or later join the Cossacks. A Russian Cossack is such an amoral government actor and holy thief who by his theft serves the fatherland and by his amorality God.” Such people thus become romantic heroes precisely because they are driven to this by oppression.
Not all Russians take refuge in the “Russian world,” of course. “If someone formed in a Russian milieu is in a situation where ‘everything is going well,’ he will not think about the ‘Russian world.’ More likely, he will with satisfaction laugh about it” – because he doesn’t need the kind of therapy it provides.
That in turn means, the analyst says, that “even if tomorrow Russia was suddenly transformed and became normal, the ‘Russian world’ would not go anywhere. It would remain very much alive in the dregs of Russian society.” It would in short return to where it was two years ago, but it will last 200 years after Russia disappears “if of course it does disappear.”
There is a “radical” cure for the “Russian world.” It consists of economic growth and a just distribution of incomes. “The richer Russian society will be, the less of the ‘Russian world’ there will be in it.”
Indeed, the connection between the myth of the “Russian world” and misfortune and a poor quality of life is much like the connection between those factors and tuberculosis. And the cure is thus much the same.
The myth is thus useful – it provides a reduction in “discomfort from failure” – but only temporarily. Like any ideological opium, the ‘Russian world’ destroys if it is used for too long. It is sufficient to look at ‘professional Russians’ in order to understand how fatal it can be in large doses.”
But even small doses can be dangerous under some circumstances. It can lead those who take it to avoid responsibility to meet their ends “in the Ukraine steppe or in the mountains between Syria and Turkey.”
So has the total failure of any Obama FP in Syria and in general in the ME now directly contributed to a full scale Sunni Shia Conflict rivaling the 100 years war???
Iran & Russia transferred about 40.000 foreign Shiite militia fighters from Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan to Syria
Divided into 25 different Shia militias...in a country where the Sunni majority is 70%.
BTW--many of the Iraqi Shia militias are armed with US weapons and Humvees.....with six destroyed and or captured up to now....rumors also of Abrams tanks being in Syria.
Analysis Map
Rebels lose more ground vs. Iraqi militias/Russian airstrikes S-W of Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvclU6N4U5k …
pic.twitter.com/7eD8au6asZ
AND that great Obama Iranian Deal that got the US exactly what again......???
Reuters Top News ✔ @Reuters
Iran tested missile, breaching U.N. council resolutions: officials http://reut.rs/1IRcNcm
Well so much for the Iranians holding to anything they sign--also a typical Putin thing BTW...
Russian stealth sub with cruise missiles, the Rostov-on-Don, is off Syria in eastern Med, confirms military source:
Russia now has far more naval power in the Med than it had at the height of the Cold Power and that has not gained any attention in the Obama WH??
ADD the AD bubbles they have been building with the Syrian S300s and Russian S400s and they control air space denial wise a large section of the ME if they wanted to.
Dayuhan------notice anything----there was also a sudden stop to TOWs being delivered to FSA and all know the OK or not OK comes from the US.....AND a Southern Front offensive on Assad and Russian positions was also stopped by the US via the Jordanian MOC......
The FSA has repeatedly told the US after Assad they will focus on IS....
http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/1955...e-we-on-anyway
The Scroll
Understanding Syria: Whose Side Are We on, Anyway?
By Tony Badran
The White House and the Kremlin are currently working in parallel toward a common objective in Syria: cutting off support to Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime by closing the Turkish-Syrian border. What makes this situation confusing, even to many reporters and commentators, is that it is being promoted as an effort to “fight ISIS.” The irony is that, to achieve his goals, Vladimir Putin is using both ISIS as well as a U.S.-supported, anti-Turkish Kurdish group.
It is no secret that Russia entered Syria to support the country’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad. As a result, Putin has shown very little interest in fighting ISIS, which has allied militarily and economically with Assad against other rebel groups, which it seeks to destroy. As a result, clashes between Assad and ISIS have been very limited. Instead, they have ganged up against these rebels in what often seems like coordinated offensives. Russia’s own military operations have almost entirely targeted Turkish-backed rebel factions in northwestern Syria, which oppose ISIS, and which had achieved success in driving out Assad’s forces from Idlib province earlier in the spring. Russia’s immediate military goal is to roll back those gains.
Weapons and logistical support flow to the anti-Assad rebels from staging points in Turkey. In order to cut off support to the rebels, the Russians baited the Turks by violating their airspace last month, despite repeated warnings to stay out. The stunt resulted in the downing of a Russian Sukhoi fighter jet. However, the Russians immediately used the incident to pursue a multi-pronged attack on Turkish allies and interests in northern Syria and on Turkey itself, in what increasingly seems like a deliberate trap in which the Turks are now caught.
The Russian propaganda effort in support of the military campaign against the rebels aims to portray Turkey as the state sponsor of ISIS, thereby isolating the Turks in the wake of the ISIS terror attacks in Paris. Russian military operations, the Kremlin proclaimed, were targeting oil installations, and arms convoys from Turkey to ISIS. But the area the Russian air force was striking while those pictures were being released by Kremlin-controlled news outlets was an ISIS-free area north of Aleppo, close to the Turkish border.
The current Russian offensive is centered on and around the rebel-controlled town of Azaz, which lies in a narrow stretch between a Kurdish-controlled area to the west, and ISIS-controlled territory to the east. This strip is of great importance, as it constitutes the logistical conduit from Turkey to Syrian rebels in and around Aleppo who are fighting both ISIS, as well as the Iranian-led coalition of Shiite militias and Assad forces.
In addition to attacking these rebel areas on the Turkish border with air strikes, this week the Russian Air Force also reportedly gave support to Kurdish-led units that were attacking rebel positions near Azaz. At the same time, the Russians, working with the Iranians and regime forces, had been launching operations in the south and south east of Aleppo, thereby keeping rebel forces engaged on multiple fronts. By pounding Azaz and adding a Kurdish-led assault from the west, Putin deliberately gave an opening to ISIS to move in from the east and try to gain control over the critical border town. Indeed, ISIS swiftly launched an assault on nearby villages and is now threatening to advance on Azaz, thereby acting in concert with Putin and Iran against the anti-Assad rebels.
With this ploy, Putin is looking to hit several birds with one stone. By drawing in ISIS further west on the border with Turkey, he neutralizes the charge that his operations are not focused on ISIS, but rather on Assad’s opponents. Also, by working with the Kurds, he is laying his own claim to a force that Washington and its European allies regard as their partner of choice on the ground. By creating an opening for ISIS to make a push toward Azaz, Putin will leverage the US and Europe to pressure Turkey to shut down this section of its border. If ISIS actually makes it to Azaz, then Russia can then invite the U.S. and the Europeans to join it in strikes against ISIS, and in support of the Kurds.
But all of that is what professionals like to call “optics,” meaning appearances, which can often be at odds with facts and goals. Putin’s larger immediate goal is to shut down Turkey’s link to Aleppo, thereby preparing the way for Assad (perhaps even in coordination with the PKK-affiliated Kurds) to besiege and eventually recapture the city. In doing so, he will have used both ISIS and the Kurds to advance his plan of undercutting Turkey and buoying Assad. Sure enough, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly confirmed yesterday that Russsia’s objective was to use the Kurds in order to seal off the Turkish border. “As for specific ways of sealing the border between Turkey and Syria,” Lavrov said, “Kurdish militia forces, which are allies of the US-led coalition, could be used.” U.S. special forces could also take part in the effort, Lavrov added, but they would have to coordinate with the Syrian government.
For its part, the White House has issued public statements that make it hard for casual observers to tell whether America is for or against Assad—who, after all, has murdered a quarter of a million of his own civilian population with barrel bombs, poison gas, and other outlawed methods of warfare—or whether we are opposed to Russia’s military intervention in Syria, or whether we are, in fact, allied with Putin. But a look at American policy statements and at a map of Syria (below), rather than sound bites, makes the picture much clearer. The White House has rejected Turkish proposals to set up a buffer zone in the border strip near Azaz. In fact, the Obama Administration has been working with the PKK-affiliated Kurds of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) precisely to avoid working with the anti-Assad rebels who are supported by the Turks and Saudis, which might upset Iran. The PYD Kurds are a perfect partner for American policy, because they have no interest in fighting Assad, and are content to work with the U.S. against ISIS and to strengthen their own position in northern Syria.
Following the downing of the Russian jet, Obama didn’t defend Turkey, which was once a key American ally, and remains a member of NATO. Instead, he has amplified Putin’s pressure on Turkey. The White House publicly pressured Turkey to cordon off a 60-mile stretch of its border that the administration says is used by ISIS to move foreign fighters to Syria. However, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, part of that stretch includes the area south of the Turkish town of Kilis, which sits opposite of Azaz, and extends eastward all the way to where the ISIS-held areas begin. In other words, the U.S. is demanding Turkey close down its border opposite areas held by non-ISIS rebel forces; those are the same areas that Putin is pummeling and wants cut off from Turkey. This policy aligns the U.S. with Russia, and therefore with Iran and Assad, against Turkey and the other regional backers of the Syrian rebels.
Dayuhan---would you call this an innovative US FP.......and you wonder why we have a mess in Syria.......
Kerry is now endorsing a plan cooked up in Damascus (and Moscow and Tehran) two years ago:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0TN1D120151204 …