Trump’s Foreign Policy Philosophy Hard to Pin Down
Masood Farivar, Voice of America
Is President-elect Donald Trump a foreign policy realist or idealist? Is he bringing Richard Nixon’s hard-edged realpolitik to his foreign policy or following in the footsteps of the more idealistic Ronald Reagan?
The question has become a parlor game among Washington's policy pundits.
Trump’s frequent invocation of Reagan’s “peace through strength” mantra and campaign pledge to rebuild America’s “depleted” military has invited comparisons to the Republican icon credited with winning the Cold War.
His advocacy of a foreign policy based on America’s national interests has led some to liken it to Nixonian realism, while his aversion to foreign interventions has won him the label of a non-interventionist and even isolationist.
Don’t Fence Trump In
Trump has professed no great power doctrine and his advisers discourage applying labels to his vision of the world.
“I’m not going to be put into the little academic, graduate school box because I think it doesn’t suit, and it doesn’t apply in a rapidly changing world,” said K.T. McFarland, Trump’s incoming deputy national security adviser, when asked to describe the Trump doctrine.
While Trump’s call for “peace through strength” reflects Reagan’s view of deterrence, “there are parts of Nixon and (Henry) Kissinger that Donald Trump has also advocated,” McFarland said at the U.S. Institute of Peace, alluding to Trump’s interest-based approach to world affairs.
Trump’s Speeches
A foreign policy neophyte, Trump has shied away from declaring any grand foreign strategy during the campaign, though he did give two major speeches devoted to foreign policy and national security.
In the first speech, delivered at the realist-leaning Center for the National Interest in Washington in April, Trump outlined what he called a “coherent foreign policy based on American interests” and called for “getting out of nation building,” creating stability and quashing “radical Islam.”
“Containing the spread of radical Islam must be a major foreign policy goal of the United States and indeed the world,” Trump said. “Events may require the use of military force, but it’s also a philosophical struggle, like our long struggle in the Cold War.”
In the second speech, at Youngstown University in Ohio in August, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric about terror, warning countries around the world that they’d be judged based on their commitment to the U.S. goal of fighting terrorism.
“All actions should be oriented around this goal, and any country which shares this goal will be our ally,” Trump told a rally of supporters.
‘Strategic Surprise’
It was a theme that Trump would repeat, in one iteration or another, throughout the campaign, but his advisers say Trump’s pre- and post-election pronouncements on foreign policy, often delivered off the cuff, should not be read as policy prescriptions.
“Actually, he didn’t say a lot about foreign policy and national security on the campaign trail, and what he did say really doesn’t add up to a policy,” said James Carafano, director of foreign policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation who advises the Trump transition team on foreign affairs. “That’s very frustrating because the people want to know what’s this guy going to do.”
With the new administration yet to take office, McFarland, too, cautioned that Trump’s foreign policy is in an early stage of development.
“That’s what a new administration does: It takes time to rethink things and to come up with policies,” she said.
If history is any guide, Trump could quickly find himself facing a set of foreign policy crises different from the issues he campaigned on. Political scientists have a term for an unexpected world event that drives a new president into uncharted territory: “strategic surprise.”
For former President George W. Bush, who campaigned on pursuing a “humble foreign policy,” the strategic surprise came September 11, 2001.
For President Barack Obama, who vowed to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the “Arab Spring” protests in North Africa and the Middle East marked a strategic surprise, leaving his administration more deeply mired in the region than he’d hoped.
What international crisis might alter the trajectory of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda has become a guessing game, with the number of scenarios exceeded only by the variety of foreign policy labels attributed to Trump.
A game-changing terrorist attack on American interests is one possible candidate. Another contender: an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch by North Korea.
“I think the world is not necessarily going to allow President Trump to do everything he’s planned on,” said Blaise Misztal, director of the national security program at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “I think you’re going to see a triangulation between what he’s said, what he’s advised to do, and what is actually feasible on the world stage.”
Flip Flopping on Issues
While Trump has flip flopped on some issues, NATO and torturing terrorists, for example, he’s held steady on others. Among them: terrorism, trade, China and Russia.
In the weeks since his election, he’s reiterated his pledge to make terrorism a focus of his foreign policy, talked tough on trade, challenged the “One China” policy, and iterated again a desire to reset relations with Russia even as he embraced intelligence findings that Moscow interfered in last year’s presidential election.
Brian Katulis of Center for American Progress, a liberal Washington think tank, said the “most radical shift” Trump will likely undertake will be “engagement and involvement” with Russia, something Obama unsuccessfully attempted during his first term in office.
But former CIA director Michael Hayden said Trump is likely to reconsider his approach to Russia once he learns from intelligence agencies and allies that Russia and Syria are not committed to fighting IS.
“I’m personally very, very skeptical of any convergence between American and Russian interests in this part of the world,” Hayden said. “In fact, I’d offer the view that American and Russian interests are actually heading in different directions.”
Another major change: downplaying a postwar American foreign policy tradition of promoting democracy and freedom around the world.
“Trump has signaled as a candidate and in the transition a proclivity to appreciate authoritarian and repressive leaders around the world,” Katulis said. “And this may be the biggest departure that is historic, that there really won’t be as much of a values-based approach that focuses on human rights democracy and freedom in other countries. And that I think puts the United States itself on shaky territory.”
But McFarland played down those concerns, saying “the three bedrocks of (postwar) American foreign policy” — American leadership, American values and international alliances — will remain under the Trump administration.
Unpredictability
There is usually some continuity between administrations on foreign policy, but “that rule actually may not apply under Trump,” Katulis said.
“We’re dealing with something here that is just fundamentally different and off the charts,” Katulis explained.
That 'something' is Trump’s well-known unpredictability. Trump has criticized President Obama for telegraphing his policy moves and has vowed to remain unpredictable. But experts say unpredictability can be dangerous in the international arena where both allies and adversaries expect a certain degree of predictability from the United States.
"Predictability is the cornerstone of deterrence," said Clarke. "You need to be predictable if you’re the United states, both in what your allies know you’ll do and in what your adversaries know you’ll do and how you’ll respond."
Comments
The Pentagon tells lawmakers there are no records of Michael Flynn's 2015 trip to Russia
No paper trail means no accountability. What was Michael Flynn doing in Russia? Was there a cover-up?
US UN Ambassador corrects Trump now.....
BREAKING: U.S. ambassador at U.N. says government still supports two-state solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
http://reut.rs/2kWT8oO
Under the rubric of out right weird....
Reporter asks @POTUS Trump about 48 bomb threats to Jewish centers.
Trump's response: "A very insulting question."
.@POTUS Trump is actually saying that Flynn [@GenFlynn] was talking to #Russia about sanctions.
OMG!
Trump just confirmed by himself that the leaks we in fact true AND he called them fakes news and dishonest....?????
In relation to the presser, one interesting thing from today's Pew poll: 63% say Trump is NOT a "good communicator," one of his worst traits
59% say they do not trust him and 57%say he is not well informed....
This about sums it up.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-defends-himself-lashes-out-at… …
Trump said yesterday he got 306 electoral college votes and just said it again today (twice).
He also tweeted it this morning.
*He got 304.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 5h
5 hours ago
The Democrats had to come up with a story as to why they lost the election, and so badly (306), so they made up a story - RUSSIA. Fake news!
Reminder: this is the second time in two days Trump has been set up to denounce anti-Semitism forcefully…
…And then refused to.
BUT WAIT...appears that Trump did not realize Flynn violated the Logan Act did he.....??
Trump defends Flynn talking to Russian ambassador on sanctions "I think he did something right"
.@realDonaldTrump: "What Flynn did wasn't wrong. What was wrong is what you media did. You did fake news with it"
Wow....
"I called Mexico. It was supposed to be secret. Same thing with Australia. Same think with Flynn. The press should be ashamed"
SO EXACTLY WHAT DID TRUMP DO that he seems to be denying he did....????
REPORTER: "Can you say nobody on your team was dealing with the Russians?"
TRUMP: "Well, I had nothing to do with it."
AND this press conference just gets worse....
CNN: " You say the leaks are real, how is the news on
Trump: "You reporting is fake.I see your tone. Your tone is such hatred"
Why should Americans trust you?"
NBC's @PeterAlexander asking the key Q.
Trump simply did not answer.
NATO allies "uncertain about how they can develop positive relationship with a president that is so unpredictable"
http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-trump-nato-20170213-story.html
Is this President truly sane of mind in the face of ever increasing leaks tying him and his advisors to Russia....and potentially Russian black money...
.@POTUS to media: "I'm not ranting and raving. I'm just telling you you're dishonest people."
@POTUS Trump: "The false, horrible reporting by you (the media) makes it harder to do a deal with Russia."
SERIOUS NOTE
Trump is evidently now slowing breaking under the pressure of the valid information being provided in the series of leaks...HE is also under ever increasing Russian pressure to lift the sanctions on Russia...
I posted the not so subtle Russia threats to me on not delivering on his promised lifting of sanctions SO is he in fact compromised by the Russian Intelligence Services.....
IMHO...he is definitely compromised and he cannot delivery on what Putin wants....
HATE TO DAY THIS...Trump is showing signs of panic in not being able to deliver the lifted Russian sanctions and NOW BLAMEs the media for it....
SO what do the Russians have on him?????
Trump on a tweet rant again...does he not fully understand the series of urgent questions he has to answer in the next few days....concerning his and his advisors connections to Russia....and his finances with various banks.....
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4h
4 hours ago
FAKE NEWS media, which makes up stories and "sources," is far more effective than the discredited Democrats - but they are fading fast!
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4h
4 hours ago
The Democrats had to come up with a story as to why they lost the election, and so badly (306), so they made up a story - RUSSIA. Fake news!
POTUS just blamed media again for Flynn's downfall, says leaks = "the real problem" -- says Russia story is "fake news, a fabricated deal"
Full Trump rant on leaks now, which he clearly feels is the only problem he has -- well, that and the nasty press which "should be ashamed"
POTUS says NYT story on RIS calls is "a joke" amidst much Trump word salad; cites Manafort as "a respected man" -- well, in Moscow, sure
Trump still won't answer direct question about Russian contacts....usual evasions -- "Russia is fake news"....nothing to see here, folks.
POTUS just blamed Obama WH for his Russia problems, denounced WSJ story (days after my scoop on it) on IC holding back intel from the WH.
Trump's problem is that WSJ didn't call him for comment on their IC story....this guy is simply gone in the head. POTUS is not the WH PAO.
ANOTHER Trump rant about leaks regarding his calls to foreign leaders...good luck with DoJ investigating foreign leaders and their staffs.
NOTE:.....
Trump is alternating between essentially confirming that these classified leaks are true and then calling them fake news trying to deflect from his confirming the leaks as being true.....
Always follow the money....."FTM"......Trump has an unusually large amount of loans with the Deutsche Bank who in turn holds a lot of Russian oligarch money and who was recently fined by the US for money laundering activities........
Deutsche Bank is also under investigation in Germany for those money laundering activities as well....
Given how much dirty Russian money Deutsche Bank has, what's their threshold for bad here?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/16/deutsche-bank-examined-…
REMEMBER Trump with his seven bankruptcies could not get a single US bank to give him loans...currently Chinese banks hold a total of 350M USDs of his debt load...Deutsche Bank is the second largest loan provider behind the Chinese...
No Trump business conflicts of interest and no violation of the Emoluments Clause in the US Constitution?????
China awards #Trump valuable new trademark: @ABC report
http://
abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-awards-trump-valuable-trademark-45504953
NOTE...this happened after Trump changed his rhetoric against China to match the Chinese desired US one china policy in their recent call....
NO quid pro quo connections...really?
Trump's proposed US Ambassador Malloch to the EU in this German interview gives the Euro 18 months and the EU will collapse...
Dem Euro gibt er 18 Monate, der EU kaum Zukunft: mein ganzes Interview mit Trumps EU-Botschafter in spe ist online
https://mobil.news.at/a/politik-trump-berater-malloch-interview
REMEMBER this is the same rich Trump friend/campaign donator who lied on a number of achievements he claimed on his CV....he claimed that they were real and in the end pulled them back off his CV as "fakes".....after the media found out the truth behind them....
Will the Trump WH and their AG attempt to hinder this extradition?????
Kremlin/mob-linked Ukrainian oligarch who hired the former Trump campaign manger and advisor Manafort, faces extradition to US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-02-16/will-trump-rescue-th…
Trump/Putin bromance is now officially over.....back to normal.....
A source from Russian state TV network tells @kvoneggert of new directive: "no more Trump."
https://twitter.com/kvoneggert/status/832197617283112961
Perfect Russian example of their mirroring propaganda...meaning blaming others of doing something THEY themselves are actually doing..perfected in the Crimea annexation and their invasion into Ukraine in 2014....
Here they blame NATO for confrontation...THAT they have been conducting since Georgia...Crimea...Ukraine..Syria...buzzing US ships and aircraft and countless air incursions into NATO airspace and Baltic airspace with navigation transponders turned off....
http://tass.com/politics/931231
MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. NATO has been trying to embroil Russia in confrontation by constant provocative actions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a board meeting of the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Strategists say some kinds of Russian military equipment surpass NATO’s US-made analogues
Russian diplomat says NATO invents phantom threats in Black Sea area
Estonian intelligence service says armed conflict between NATO, Russia unlikely
Russia’s envoy sees no signs of NATO’s changing its eastward expansion plans
Putin pointed out that "NATO has declared restraining Russia its new official mission."
"For this purpose, the bloc has been expanding as it did before but now they seem to have found new serious reason to justify the bloc’s expansion and have sped up the process of deploying conventional and strategic weapons beyond the member states’ borders," the Russian president stressed. He went on to say that "they have been constantly provoking us in order to embroil us in confrontation." The Russian leader also pointed to "the ongoing attempts to interfere in our internal affairs and destabilize the social and political situation in Russia."
The Russian leader noted that at the NATO summit held in 2016 in Poland’s capital of Warsaw, "Russia was declared the main threat for the Alliance’s security for the first time since 1989."
BLUF.....as long as Trump continues his Putin bromance and does nothing to push back on repeated Russian actions.....buzzing US naval ships carrying armed 500lb bombs.....stationing a spy ship off the main US nuclear sub port....violating INF....increasing the heavy attacks on Ukraine....
Putin will just keep on pushing....testing and blaming NATO.....
More of the failing...non existent Trump FP right now on just about anything other than his tweets....
"Merkel won’t just stand by and let Trump and Putin to decide the fate of Ukraine by themselves" -
http://en.hromadske.ua/articles/show/the_Sunday_Show_120217
Putin wants his spies to work closer with US intelligence agencies
http://news.sky.com/story/putin-wants-his-spies-to-work-closer-with-us-…
HECK they already know what is ongoing in the WH.....????
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 6m
6 minutes ago
Leaking, and even illegal classified leaking, has been a big problem in Washington for years. Failing @nytimes (and others) must apologize!
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 3m
3 minutes ago
The spotlight has finally been put on the low-life leakers! They will be caught!
BUT WAIT......Does Trump really get just how serious he has it right now in the WH...apparently not....
It's like the Captain of the Titanic investigating how passengers found out the ship sprung a leak and ignoring the fact the ship's sinking.
APOLOGIZE for telling the truth vs a majority of the Trump tweets...really???
APOLOGIZE because Trump having been correctly informed by the US IC about the Flynn problem looked the other way....for how long and did absolutely nothing......?????
NOTE:
It's IMPOSSIBLE to write about Trump beyond "oh my God see what he said?" or "leaks" because the story is contradictory & changes every hour
Trump is desperately attempting to spin the media and the American public away from his and his advisor's Russian connections....
Trump WH Russian FP hard at work it seems....
Rus Su-24 jets were armed with FAB-250 bombs when buzzed near USS Porter
SU-24 fighter jets flying low & fast above destroyer USS Porter in the Black Sea on February 10, DOD said they were"unsafe & unprofessional"
http://liveuamap.com/en/2017/16-february-russian-su24-jets-were-armed-w…
pic.twitter.com/TlWiveh0hs
Let's see...Russia violates the INF...Russia buzzes US warships.....Russian is hacking and conducting influence operations against the US....Russia is attacking heavily Ukraine ...Russia stations spy ship 30mn off US coast......AND the Trump WH response.....
ZERO....
Little known Trump business issue that would/could influence his US energy decisions.......not known before the election.....
In 2000, Trump ran racist ads targeting Indian casinos, using a front group created by Roger Stone to hide his role.
Trump was fined $250K.
Trump also has stock holdings in three of the pipeline companies involved in the pipeline...
Ah...the name Stone appears again...and Stone is one of the individuals under review for close Russian connections and close contact with WikiLeaks just before they released the Podesta emails.....
This is why Trump should not be involved in #StandingRockSiouxTribe #DakotaPipeline decision.
Appears his pipeline decision was one of vengeance.....
US JCoS Dunford is going to met the top Russian General Shoigu,but then he releases this statement before the meeting....
Russia says Pentagon should not seek to build ties from position of strength: agencies
http://reut.rs/2lmHUL3
Russia's #defence minister Shoigu warns #US against seeking dialogue from "position of strength":
http://www.
rferl.org/a/russia-us-defense-shoigu-dialogue-position-of-strength/28313135.html
So in his worldview US military has to be weak in order to work with Russia????
Putin has wanted two things from the US that Obama was unwilling to grant him....
1. verbal respect of Russian
2. accepting Russia as a global superpower
BOTH of which Trump hit the ground running with until Flynn caused him to hit the wall so to speak...
Trump aides who had intercepted communications with Russian intel "need to start getting lawyers"
http://on.msnbc.com/2lfuIYC
More Trump business entanglements and US FP.....
Trump Partner Named In Claims Indonesian Ex-Pres Ordered Murder Frame Job
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/6078-trump-partner-named-in-claims-indon…
via @OCCRP
Even Assad is totally confused by the Trump Muslim Ban EO......
Assad says Trump travel ban targets terrorists, not Syria's people
http://reut.rs/2lmlhGv
BUT WAIT....Syria was one of the seven Muslim nations on the ban list....
Assad actually if travelling to the US on a US visa would have been stopped and returned to Syria....as he had not been extremely vetted...
NOW someone tell me this is not a so subtle warning to Trump by Putin to hold to what has been previously discussed with his WH associates...and or he holds compromising materials on Trump....
ACTUALLY I have not seen Russia state something like this in years....
Russia urges Donald Trump to keep his campaign pledge to improve relations
http://bloom.bg/2lkzns9
Even in the Obama Russian reset did they utter anything like this?????
EVEN MORE not so subtle Russian pressure this time from Putin's own spokesperson.....
Kremlin says hopes to repair U.S. ties, but time is being wasted
http://reut.rs/2kN3vcg
They seem to be unable to figure out why suddenly their Putin Trump bromance went south when they hold compromising information...
Finally now confirmed as the Trump WH trumpeted the great highly successful Yemen raid dismissing anyone who critiqued it as being basically
"unAmerican" and aiding IS......
BUT WAIT.....
"Pro-government tribal leader among dead in #US raid in #Yemen"
https://apnews.com/d927fc2962f44a6d8edf6a790b556bbc
Yemen had initially indicated his killing BUT the Trump WH glossed over it by basically ignoring his killing by ST6....
Complicates even more Yemen...
BTW....the "leaks" imply that there was far more than just telephone calls...and apparently the Trump WH is not talking about those "other concerns" are they????
So how can something be criminal if the WH does not act on the information WHICH was highly accurate and verifiable......appears to me that the WH would be criminally negligent if they did nothing with the information...
President Trump said Michael Flynn was brought down by illegal leaks to the news media, calling it a "criminal act"
http://nyti.ms/2l9vrrL
So let me get this straight.....Flynn was basically fired by Trump who claimed Flynn had lost his trust over his lying to Pence and Spicer and other unnamed items....
BUT the leaks which indicated that he had been lying were known to both Trump and Pence long before the leaks....SO both Trump and Pence "knew" Flynn was lying BUT did nothing absolutely nothing as the Trump General Counsel stated that he had done nothing "illegal"....??
BUT the leaks were "illegal"...so if the leaks had never been made one must assume Trump and Pence would never have fired Flynn....since they knew in advance anyway and Trump's lawyer said all was fine......
BUT DoJ had concluded Flynn was open to blackmail?????
Make sense to anyone else other than Trump?????
SO who is actually lying and covering up? The "leakers" or the Trump WH????
Seems to me the "leakers" were concerned the Trump WH had basically ignored their serious security concerns and warnings...AND since it is their security clearance not the Trump WH's....they had a right to be concerned....
BY THE WAY...went back to find the Trump tweet that stated he has never had contacts with Russians...never had businesses in Russia ETC....ALL in CAPs...but evidently and strangely this particular tweet has been deleted....
BUT WAIT....maybe in fact he has had contacts and business dealings that are questionable.....
U.S. Allies Conduct Intelligence Operation Against Trump Staff and Associates, Intercepted Communications
Sources said the interceptions include at least one contact between former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and a Russian official based in the U.S.
http://europe.newsweek.com/allies-intercept-russia-trump-adviser-commun…
By Kurt Eichenwald On 2/15/17 at 7:58 PM
QUOTE:
As part of intelligence operations being conducted against the United States for the last seven months, at least one Western European ally intercepted a series of communications before the inauguration between advisers associated with President Donald Trump and Russian government officials, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.
Related: President Trump's National Security Adviser Michael Flynn resigns amidst Russia controversy
The sources said the interceptions include at least one contact between former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and a Russian official based in the United States. It could not be confirmed whether this involved the telephone call with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak that has led to Flynn’s resignation, or additional communications.
The sources said the intercepted communications are not just limited to telephone calls: The foreign agency is also gathering electronic and human source information on Trump’s overseas business partners, at least some of whom the intelligence services now consider to be agents of their respective governments. These operations are being conducted out of concerns that Russia is seeking to manipulate its relationships with Trump administration officials as part of a long-term plan to destabilize the NATO alliance.
Moreover, a Baltic nation is gathering intelligence on officials in the Trump White House and executives with the president’s company, the Trump Organization, out of concern that an American policy shift toward Russia could endanger its sovereignty, according to a third person with direct ties to that nation’s government.
These sources spoke on condition that they not be identified because they were not formally authorized to disclose the information. While Newsweek was told which allied nations intercepted the communications and are gathering intelligence on Trump associates, the sources did so on condition that the countries not be identified out of concern those governments would incur the president’s wrath.
The Western European intelligence operations began in August, after the British government obtained information that people acting on behalf of Russia were in contact with members of the Trump campaign. Those details from the British were widely shared among the NATO allies in Europe. The Baltic nation has been gathering intelligence for at least that long, and has conducted surveillance of executives from the Trump Organization who were traveling in Europe.
These operations reflect a serious breakdown in the long-standing faith in the direction of American policy by some of the country’s most important allies.
Worse, the United States is now in a situation that may be unprecedented—where European governments know more about what is going on in the executive branch than any elected American official. To date, the Republican-controlled Congress has declined to conduct hearings to investigate the links between Trump’s overseas business partners and foreign governments, or the activities between Russia and officials in the Trump campaign and administration—the very areas being examined by the intelligence services of at least two American allies.
Some details about Trump’s business partners were passed to the American government months ago. For example, long before the president’s inauguration, German electronic surveillance determined that the father of Trump’s Azerbaijani business partner is a government official who laundered money for the Iranian military; that information was shared with the CIA, according to a European source with direct knowledge of the situation.
Of equal concern to our allies is Trump’s business partner in the Philippines, who is also the special representative to Washington of that country’s president, Rodrigo Duterte. This government official, Jose E.B. Antonio, is the head of Century Properties, which in turn is a partner with the president’s business in the construction of Trump Tower at Century City in Makati, Philippines. According to people with direct knowledge of the situation, a European intelligence service has obtained the contracts and other legal documents in the deal between the Trump Organization and Antonio.
That deal has already resulted in large payments to Trump’s business, with millions of dollars more on the way—all coming from an agent of the Philippine president.
The financial relationship between an American president and the Philippine government comes at a time when the historic alliance between the West and the Southeast Asian country is under great stress. Since the election last year of Duterte, a campaign of slaughter has gripped the Philippines, with death squads murdering thousands of suspected drug users in the streets.
The carnage, which intelligence officials have concluded is being conducted with Duterte’s involvement, has been condemned throughout the Western world; the Parliament of the European Union and two United Nations human rights experts have urged Duterte to end the massacre.
Duterte has responded by signaling his government could tilt its alliances away from the West, instead turning to China as its primary ally. Such a move could be devastating, given that the American armed forces maintains large military bases there. The situation with the Philippines “is already an enormous challenge,” one official with direct knowledge of the European intelligence operations said. “President Trump’s business there is a complicating factor that we are trying to assess.”
The information gathered by the Western European government has been widely shared among the NATO allies, although it is not clear how much has been provided to American intelligence officials. One source said that members of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s staff had been briefed on the surveillance findings prior to her meeting last month with Trump and that officials within the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel have also obtained the details.
These intelligence operations against the United States come as a result of allied concern about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s designs to damage NATO and whether Trump intends to follow a policy path that would embolden Russia. In addition, they are apprehensive about whether a newly strengthened Moscow would use its energy weapon—Western Europe obtains almost 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia—to push aggressive policies with little objection from the Trump White House.
Officials in the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are particularly concerned. Given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they fear that, should the Trump administration drop sanctions intended to punish Moscow’s military adventurism, their nations’ futures could also be at risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he will "protect" Russian speakers wherever they are; only 17 percent of Ukraine’s population is ethnic Russians.
However, ethnic Russians make up 24 percent and 27 percent of the populations of Estonia and Latvia, respectively, according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an American think tank. And even though only 6 percent of Lithuania’s population is ethnic Russian, its government brought back military conscription, which had been abandoned seven years earlier, following Moscow’s military invasion of Ukraine.
While nothing improper has been detected, the Baltic nation also launched an investigation by its intelligence service into the relationship between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his longtime personal friend, Igor Sechin, the head of the Kremlin-controlled oil company Rosneft. Sechin and Rosneft are on the blacklist of people and entities designated for sanctions following Russia’s incursion into Ukraine.
He was Tillerson’s main business partner when he worked as the chief executive of Exxon Mobil and is a powerful figure in Russia who is both a former member of the FSB (the federal security service that is the primary successor to the Soviet Union’s KGB) and the former head of presidential administration in charge of the security services.
“Sechin’s power derives from his relationship with Putin,” according to a 2008 State Department cable sent from the embassy in Moscow. “As Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration in charge of the security services, there was little doubt about Igor Sechin's power. He was widely regarded as a very influential member of Putin's inner circle, perhaps even the most influential, with the requisite FSB background to advance the President's (and his own) agenda.”
That influence, and the role Sechin could play in gaining greater power for Russia through oil sales if sanctions are dropped by the Trump administration, is what made him a primary target in the Baltic state’s intelligence investigation of Tillerson.
Yet, back in America, the name Sechin was not even mentioned during Tillerson’s confirmation hearings before the Senate.
UNQUOTE
Worse is no longer a word to be used with the chaos we are seeing in the Trump WH....and a defined FP..nowhere to be seen outside of tweets...and countervailing Trump statements...
This is actually bad as it could led to a number of serious conflicts of interest and government contract bid disputes....
Boeing CEO overheard Trump call with the Air Force general managing Lockheed's F-35 program
http://bloom.bg/2lTiktS
One does have to wonder about the House Republicans...vs the Senate Republicans who want an immediate and detailed investigation into the Trump/Flynn..Russian connections.....
He is interested in the leaking which has proven largely to be very accurate in their information concerning Flynn and various Russian connections WHICH he does not want to investigate....
House Oversight chairman wants US intelligence leaks surrounding Trump investigated
http://read.bi/2lTEAUC
This is the same Utah Congressman who got chased out of his own town hall meeting when his own constitutes demanded he take action and demanded Trump's tax records....THEN he claimed and it was disproven that the people in his town hall meeting were paid thugs...and Democrats...but they were his own Republicans...
Those conservative journalists and media outlets getting the Trump WH PC attention lately have never carried a single article on this below...
Why the Trump Organization was cited in a Brazil corruption probe
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-02-15/why-the-trump-organi…
WHY is that? Especially when Trump repeatedly stated he was going to "drain the swamp" and now he is the "swamp himself"......
AND they certainly have not carried any news articles on this below....
There might be good reasons why Trump's entourage are so nervous about their multiple links with Russia...
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/02/donald-trump-cant-come-clea…
Now we clearly see the Bannon attempt to control the media flow outside of the WH....
1. the WH invited deliberately a well known white supremacist to attend the daily WH press corp briefing...the same white supremacist that was to speak at Berkeley and was stopped that led to a Trump support tweet
2. yesterday at the Israeli/US press conference...Breitbart.com a white nationalist and anti sematic blogsite had a front role seat....
3. Over three pressers, Trump's called on NY Post, Fox, Sinclair’s ABC7, Daily Caller, Christian Broadcasting and Townhall.
BTW...none of these outlets have engaged in the Russian connection debate and still voice their 300% support of Trump's moves...
4. under the new WH format they are inviting outside Skype journalists...largely conservative to white nationalist who ask questions reinforcing exactly what the WH spokesperson Spicer just had briefed as a way to reinforce the WH messaging narrative....
ALL reinforced with the Trump constant stream of tweets calling CNN..NYTs and Wapo...fake news outlets........and accuses them of lying...
We are getting a perfect example of what this WH defines as freedom of speech and free press....
Notice the connection between profit and the Trump lifting of Russian sanctions....
Siluanov: Gov has postponed sale of VTB stake, hoping to get better price if "sanctions" are lifted
http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-vtb-privatisation-idUSR4N1FZ015
One of the key Steele report accusations was the following.....
News of death of exKGB general/Sechin (Rosneft CEO) CoS Erovinkin in relation to election hack gaining traction
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/02/suspicious-death-and-three-cy…
There was the accusation of a 12M USD payment to Trump and company if the sanctions were lifted...19.2% of the Rosneft shares.....they do in fact exist and are parked in a weird shell company parked in Singapore....
Rosneft, Trump, advisor Carter Page, & Putin to make BILLIONS $$ when Russian sanctions lifted
http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor-sechin-dos…
Did Putin help elect Trump to restore $500 billion Exxon-Rosneft oil deal killed by sanctions?
https://thinkprogress.org/putin-helped-trump-exxon-oil-deal-sanctions-6…
IC thinks Trump is a traitor. I'll leave to actual lawyers to assess that, but it's quite a day in any democracy when the spies think such.
I love how the new pseudo-defense is, "Sure, Team Trump talked all the time to Russian spies, but it's not definitely illegal."
Really?
BTW security clearance require that if you in fact know that Russians are potential spies "you are required to report"...period....end of story....
THEN you will be debriefed by US CI types.....military and or civilian....
BUT WAIT...intercepted Russian Trump connections also came from US allies....
US allies also intercept Russia-Trump adviser communications
http://www.newsweek.com/allies-intercept-russia-trump-adviser-communica…
AND it just keeps getting worse....
StanfordLaw
✔
@StanfordLaw
Trump-Russia inquiry may implicate Sessions or close colleagues, says SLS's @d_a_sklansky on conflict of interest
http://stanford.io/2kzzJqv
Well worth reading as the author has been basically correct in his assumptions since 2015 with Trump and his Russian connections as well as his close advisors...
KremlinGate Enters Uncharted Waters as Russian Links Overwhelm DC
New revelations of clandestine ties between the president and Moscow bring turmoil to the Oval Office
By John R. Schindler • 02/15/17 6:15pm
http://observer.com/2017/02/donald-trump-administration-kremlingate-rus…
Nixon was tripped up by US criminal acts..we have never had a President flirting with the Espionage Act....
Many also need to urgently understand the word..."keptocracy"...and notice the similarity between it and the Russian oligarch system....
BTW...in one of his recent articles he had indicated this....now verified...
Intel officials say they withhold intel from Trump. This is the important part
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/spies-keep-intelligence-from-donald-tr… …
There is far more at work with the "Russian connection" inside the Republican Party than many really want to address...
QUOTE
Representative Steve King, Republican of Iowa, said in a recent interview that some officials in the intelligence community were trustworthy but “not all.”
“People there need to be rooted out,” Mr. King said.
Another Republican lawmaker said that the predominant view at the White House is also that the politicians in the intelligence agencies need to be cleaned out.
UNQUOTE
BUT WAIT....King and Rohrbacher were both just in France talking to Le Pen whose National Front Party is a far right nationalist populist party about "they common values"..
Evidently King and Rohrbacher did not read that Putin funded Le Pen to the tune of 21M Euros....
Both Congressmen have voiced strong support for Russia/Putin and are anti Ukraine...says everything AND both have received major campaign donations from K Street lobby firms tied to Russian contracts....
Outlaw,
You can’t help wonder what the big hats must be thinking. I imagine the view out from the average Russian General’s window today is not much different from the view that Zhukov enjoyed in the 1930s. On the other hand, the views Putin and his oligarch pals are currently enjoying (wherever on the planet a Lear jet can reach in a day) are considerably different to the ‘good old days’.
I imagine the Big Hats will be thinking that’s all good and well up to a point but when the Kremlin starts getting in bed with the ultra-Right from the West then view out the General’s window goes a bit sour. After all the last time, an autocrat in the Kremlin made a pact with the ultra-Right from the ‘other side’ the whole fucking world burned down.
Trump's war with the US IC over his connections to the Russian oligarchs...Putin and black Russian money that his businesses urgently need to cover his 650USD debt load...is reaching a tipping point.
Now we go nuclear. IC war going to new levels. Just got an EM fm senior IC friend, it began: "He will die in jail."
Surprisingly, some US spies consider POTUS colluding with RIS + Kremlin, incl election theft, to be kinda treason-y
And yes some even voted for him BUT feel their defense of the US Constitution is far more important than their cast vote....
Asked about rise in anti-Semitism in US since his election, in Netanyahu's presence, Trump says......NOTHING about anti-Semitism.
David Duke @DrDavidDuke 5h
5 hours ago
The media is not free. It's a weapon for Jewish interests and the Jews want war with Russia. This is what Jewish power looks like.
Asked to address rise of anti-Semitic incidents in US,
Pres. Trump says going to see "a lot of love" in US.
POTUS just waved away decades of bipartisan US policy saying he can live with or without two-state solution
BUT WAIT..Trump changed his constant critique against china and then accepted the one China policy....
MAYBE because of this....China today awarded the Trump business an extremely valuable Chinese registered trade mark......
mobile.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/02/15/world/asia/ap-as-china-trump-trademarks.html?smid=tw-share&referer=https://t.co/jYA3uNbnvJ
SO pay for play is not in effect...and all of those shouts to "drain the swamp" were just basically rhetoric.....
So those UK and US officials demanding Germany substantially expand the Bundeswehr might want to be careful about what they wish for
For all their NATO moaning, I don't think Americans are psychologically prepared for what a big expansion of German military power entails
If Germany in particular fully increased defense spending to 2% GDP, its power within NATO would expand at expense of US and UK influence
Finally, should be noted that Ukraine's military spending is substantially above 2% GDP. Ukraine's army is now a factor in European politics
BLUF......
On the other hand the huge disparity between US military strength and European military stagnation has helped cement US global dominance
Article 5: moving from unconditional security guarantee to a fianancial transaction, watering down its meaning.
http://www.dw.com/en/nato-allies-must-pay-more-or-us-will-moderate-its-…
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
The real scandal here is that classified information is illegally given out by "intelligence" like candy. Very un-American!
By oath, intelligence officials' first duty is to "defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.."
WHAT choice then if they are defending the US from enemies near and far AND duly elected US officials totally fail to take action on their verified information????
BUT WAIT......
JUST IN: Manafort tells @MajorCBS, "I never had any contact – direct or indirect – with anyone associated with the Russian govt or Putin."
What about your buddy Konstantin Kilimnik, the GRU operative?
Trump urgently needs to read this before he tweets again......
https://20committee.com/2016/08/21/how-putins-spies-infiltrated-the-tru…