Trump’s Foreign Policy Philosophy Hard to Pin Down
Masood Farivar, Voice of America
Is President-elect Donald Trump a foreign policy realist or idealist? Is he bringing Richard Nixon’s hard-edged realpolitik to his foreign policy or following in the footsteps of the more idealistic Ronald Reagan?
The question has become a parlor game among Washington's policy pundits.
Trump’s frequent invocation of Reagan’s “peace through strength” mantra and campaign pledge to rebuild America’s “depleted” military has invited comparisons to the Republican icon credited with winning the Cold War.
His advocacy of a foreign policy based on America’s national interests has led some to liken it to Nixonian realism, while his aversion to foreign interventions has won him the label of a non-interventionist and even isolationist.
Don’t Fence Trump In
Trump has professed no great power doctrine and his advisers discourage applying labels to his vision of the world.
“I’m not going to be put into the little academic, graduate school box because I think it doesn’t suit, and it doesn’t apply in a rapidly changing world,” said K.T. McFarland, Trump’s incoming deputy national security adviser, when asked to describe the Trump doctrine.
While Trump’s call for “peace through strength” reflects Reagan’s view of deterrence, “there are parts of Nixon and (Henry) Kissinger that Donald Trump has also advocated,” McFarland said at the U.S. Institute of Peace, alluding to Trump’s interest-based approach to world affairs.
Trump’s Speeches
A foreign policy neophyte, Trump has shied away from declaring any grand foreign strategy during the campaign, though he did give two major speeches devoted to foreign policy and national security.
In the first speech, delivered at the realist-leaning Center for the National Interest in Washington in April, Trump outlined what he called a “coherent foreign policy based on American interests” and called for “getting out of nation building,” creating stability and quashing “radical Islam.”
“Containing the spread of radical Islam must be a major foreign policy goal of the United States and indeed the world,” Trump said. “Events may require the use of military force, but it’s also a philosophical struggle, like our long struggle in the Cold War.”
In the second speech, at Youngstown University in Ohio in August, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric about terror, warning countries around the world that they’d be judged based on their commitment to the U.S. goal of fighting terrorism.
“All actions should be oriented around this goal, and any country which shares this goal will be our ally,” Trump told a rally of supporters.
‘Strategic Surprise’
It was a theme that Trump would repeat, in one iteration or another, throughout the campaign, but his advisers say Trump’s pre- and post-election pronouncements on foreign policy, often delivered off the cuff, should not be read as policy prescriptions.
“Actually, he didn’t say a lot about foreign policy and national security on the campaign trail, and what he did say really doesn’t add up to a policy,” said James Carafano, director of foreign policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation who advises the Trump transition team on foreign affairs. “That’s very frustrating because the people want to know what’s this guy going to do.”
With the new administration yet to take office, McFarland, too, cautioned that Trump’s foreign policy is in an early stage of development.
“That’s what a new administration does: It takes time to rethink things and to come up with policies,” she said.
If history is any guide, Trump could quickly find himself facing a set of foreign policy crises different from the issues he campaigned on. Political scientists have a term for an unexpected world event that drives a new president into uncharted territory: “strategic surprise.”
For former President George W. Bush, who campaigned on pursuing a “humble foreign policy,” the strategic surprise came September 11, 2001.
For President Barack Obama, who vowed to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the “Arab Spring” protests in North Africa and the Middle East marked a strategic surprise, leaving his administration more deeply mired in the region than he’d hoped.
What international crisis might alter the trajectory of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda has become a guessing game, with the number of scenarios exceeded only by the variety of foreign policy labels attributed to Trump.
A game-changing terrorist attack on American interests is one possible candidate. Another contender: an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch by North Korea.
“I think the world is not necessarily going to allow President Trump to do everything he’s planned on,” said Blaise Misztal, director of the national security program at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “I think you’re going to see a triangulation between what he’s said, what he’s advised to do, and what is actually feasible on the world stage.”
Flip Flopping on Issues
While Trump has flip flopped on some issues, NATO and torturing terrorists, for example, he’s held steady on others. Among them: terrorism, trade, China and Russia.
In the weeks since his election, he’s reiterated his pledge to make terrorism a focus of his foreign policy, talked tough on trade, challenged the “One China” policy, and iterated again a desire to reset relations with Russia even as he embraced intelligence findings that Moscow interfered in last year’s presidential election.
Brian Katulis of Center for American Progress, a liberal Washington think tank, said the “most radical shift” Trump will likely undertake will be “engagement and involvement” with Russia, something Obama unsuccessfully attempted during his first term in office.
But former CIA director Michael Hayden said Trump is likely to reconsider his approach to Russia once he learns from intelligence agencies and allies that Russia and Syria are not committed to fighting IS.
“I’m personally very, very skeptical of any convergence between American and Russian interests in this part of the world,” Hayden said. “In fact, I’d offer the view that American and Russian interests are actually heading in different directions.”
Another major change: downplaying a postwar American foreign policy tradition of promoting democracy and freedom around the world.
“Trump has signaled as a candidate and in the transition a proclivity to appreciate authoritarian and repressive leaders around the world,” Katulis said. “And this may be the biggest departure that is historic, that there really won’t be as much of a values-based approach that focuses on human rights democracy and freedom in other countries. And that I think puts the United States itself on shaky territory.”
But McFarland played down those concerns, saying “the three bedrocks of (postwar) American foreign policy” — American leadership, American values and international alliances — will remain under the Trump administration.
Unpredictability
There is usually some continuity between administrations on foreign policy, but “that rule actually may not apply under Trump,” Katulis said.
“We’re dealing with something here that is just fundamentally different and off the charts,” Katulis explained.
That 'something' is Trump’s well-known unpredictability. Trump has criticized President Obama for telegraphing his policy moves and has vowed to remain unpredictable. But experts say unpredictability can be dangerous in the international arena where both allies and adversaries expect a certain degree of predictability from the United States.
"Predictability is the cornerstone of deterrence," said Clarke. "You need to be predictable if you’re the United states, both in what your allies know you’ll do and in what your adversaries know you’ll do and how you’ll respond."
Comments
Trump yesterday in front of the CIA Wall of those that have given their lives defending the US...we see the true Trump FP philosophy hard at work...no need to beat around the bush....we have a vengeful..dishonest.....corrupt...white nationalist.....narrasist hard at work with known ties to the Russian Intelligence Service...depending on Russian oligarch black money in order to keep his corrupt empire afloat....
This sums up his basic FP philosophy.....cannot be a better example....
NOW we completely know what the Trump FP will be for the next four rather long years....
Trump to CIA: "Trust me: I'm, like, a smart person."
That is real. That is a real quote.
German lawmaker @NielsAnnen: "Trump and Putin are both pursuing policies seeking to divide or even destroy the EU."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/boosted-by-trump-europes-antiestablishment-…
President stood in front of the most hallowed piece of ground at CIA, gave what was largely a campaign speech - laced w/vindictiveness
AND there is no war with the IC......?????
More from CNN Prod per pool: "...the persons who are on the side...are the ones clapping and reacting. We do not know who these people are."
Trump packed his presser with loyal staff to applaud wildly
Pool: "Color from the CNN Producer: the persons who are directly in front of Trump have not shown any reaction...to his remarks."
Trump just said at CIA US should have seized oil in Iraq -- a violation of int'l law, according to G'town Prof Arend
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/sep/09/should-US-h…
Trump's CIA speech will be examined by every European and East Asian intelligence agency. It will shape their assessment of US power
What power........????
The Associated Press
✔
@AP
BREAKING: President Donald Trump accuses media of lying about inauguration crowds, wrongly says crowd reached Washington monument.
CNN
✔
@CNN
President Trump on crowd size at inauguration: “It looked like a million and a half people.”
http://cnn.it/2jBTHlI
There is even video footage showing him walking by completely empty bleachers.....
AND from the ME.....
Elias Muhanna @QifaNabki
He's standing in front of the most powerful spy agency in the world and he's talking about how many Time magazine covers he's been on.
BUT WAIT.........it gets even better......
Video of trump telling CIA employees that we may invade Iraq again
https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/822904348334243840
Now we have a very rambling free speaking President who lies in front of CIA personnel.....
BUT it appears Trump now has the FP to eradicate radical Islam from the earth...just take their oil....Iraqi oil.....what about Syrian oil and gas.....just asking....
Trump at CIA: "we should have kept the oil" after Iraq invasion because then we "wouldn't have had ISIS"
BUT WAIT Trump, US neo right and Putin have blamed Obama for creating and supporting IS.....
@POTUS Trump's ramblings at @CIA r disturbing.
He's crowing how big the crowds were at his #inauguration & claiming the media lied about attendance
Trump has now lied about the size of his crowds to the CIA & is telling them how many times he has been on the Time Magazine cover.
Trump to CIA: "I respect you, I love you. I'm with you 1000%" as GOP staffers hoot & holler for the cameras. POTUS45's 1st propaganda show
Plot thickens: Russian oligarch Rybolovlev who overpaid Trump $40M for a mansion was in the same cities as Trump the week before election
We forget there still is an ongoing FIVE agency espionage investigation of the Trump advisors Manafort...Page and Stone and potentially even Trump...complete with a FISA warrant....for probable cause....
Trump at CIA: 'dishonest media' has spread lie about 'feud' with intelligence community, early visit to CIA HQ reflects its importance
BUT WAIT..this was a total lie....
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump Jan 12
James Clapper called me yesterday to denounce the false and fictitious report that was illegally circulated. Made up, phony facts.Too bad!
BUT WAIT...this tweet was a total lie.....
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump Jan 11
More
Intelligence agencies should never have allowed this fake news to "leak" into the public. One last shot at me.Are we living in Nazi Germany?
BUT WAIT...Trump uses the word Nazi in the same sentence as intelligence agencies"...
AND Trump is not lying again in front of 400 CIA personnel....???
QUOTE
Trump at CIA: 'dishonest media' has spread lie about 'feud' with intelligence community
BUT WAIT...it was Trump's tweeting not MSM.......
What you see is what you get with Trump...what were Trump's comments on torture...ie waterboarding....before the election?
Trump's pick for CIA says he's open to waterboarding
http://cnn.it/2j8pAnb
NOTICE this did not come up during his Senate hearings...which now have a hold on him.....
In this article LNR/DNR Kremlin puppets want Ukraine to sign new deal with Russia, want to attack Kyiv.
https://m.gazeta.ru/politics/2017/01...0479851.shtml#
We knew this was coming. Putin wants to reinstall Yanukovych during Trump term.
Especially after Yanukovych signed a formal request for Russia to send troops into Maidan....BUT was signed when he was already in Russia....
REMEMBER when the Trump spokesperson Spicer stated they are planning to do away with the WH Press Corp....
Authoritarian governments just love to control the flow of information...what happen to US freedom of speech and free press....
Maggie Haberman
✔
@maggieNYT
The WH press list that I've been on for 8 years and Trump campaign and transition lists I was on for 18 months, I've suddenly fallen off of.
Now is press censorship a new element of US FP....????
OR is this the new Trump form of punishment for not reporting what he wants MSM to publish....
AND this is the Flynn son hard at work.....remember he had been constantly retweeting white supremacist tweets...thus was supposedly taken off the Trump transition team but evidently back on again....
Michael Flynn Jr
What victory? Women already have equal rights, and YES equal pay in this country. What MORE do you want? Free mani/pedis?
Trump natl sec adviser Gen Flynn's son showing his ignorance & prejudice. Same guy who spread Russia's propaganda & pizzagate via his twitter acct
Trump's White House national security staff is almost all military intelligence officers. What could go wrong?
Flynn is creating the most military-heavy National Security Council of the modern era....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/flynn-is-creati…
QUOTE
Flynn is under pressure to show Trump he can make relatively quick progress in the struggle against terrorism, especially in Iraq and Syria. That’s the straightest line for Flynn to establish himself as indispensable with a new president who has set up a team of rivals. To succeed in the long run, however, Flynn and Trump will need to assemble an NSC staff with diverse backgrounds that can approach problems not only from a military lens.
UNQUOTE
NOW we are having an intelligence analysis competition between the NSC and the entire 17 member IC board.....
BUT WAIT it will be seriously missing the strategic level strategy needed to formulate an effective FP...all of these military choices will in the end only provide tactical answers....to strategic problems...
Military staffs have had a poor track record of "planning"...AND yes even Flynn....
BLUF:
I'll take "Endless, doomed, and globally-destabilizing war on Islam" for $500, Alex.
Biggest Trump danger isn't that he implements crazy policies but that thru incompetence & inexperience WH crashes the whole natsec system.
Wall Street Journal
Verified account
U.S. under Trump won’t send a delegation to Syria talks
State Department cites demands of transition for decision not to send a delegation to Kazakhstan
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-under-trump-wont-send-a-delegation-to-s…
BUT WAIT...Iran did not want the US to come...the Turks did and the UN stated it must be under UN supervision...
Why bother when Trump is just gonna do whatever Putin wants in #Syria anyway?
US taxpayer government research had to be protected by academic hackers out of fear that the Trump administration would destroy the data....WHICH has actually been done...
So when the rest of the world works on one FP answer...the Trump FP will be what exactly?
"Hackers downloaded US government #climate data and stored it on European servers as #Trump was being inaugurated"
https://qz.com/891201/hackers-were-downloading-government-climate-data-…
Europeans protecting global climate change data paid for by US taxpayers..protecting it from an incoming US President.....how strange is that????
BUT WAIT...Trump tweeted he was writing his own inaugural speech at his winter WH......and tweeted a photo of him supposedly writing....
.@WhiteHouse official finally concedes Trump's inaugural speech was written by Bannon and Stephen Miller
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-strikes-nationalistic-tone-in-…
SO explain to me if he cannot write his own inaugural speech JUST how he is to formulate FP when he is so under educated on global affairs....and the intertwining of events over decades....
How can Trump even formulate an effective FP when the divide between his rhetoric and reality is so massive ...
This tweet sums up his potential FP failures....
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 20h
20 hours ago
We will follow two simple rules: BUY AMERICAN & HIRE AMERICAN!
BUT WAIT...all those red Trump MEGA hats were either made in China and or Vietnam...and he has a large number of employees in his hotels and golf courses working that are not American and have visas to work there.....BTW these hats are sold often by immigrants during his rallies and this weekend in DC....
So when will people wake up to this misuse of information actually often called propaganda and or disinformation....will they then question his FP...
AND there are no ties between far right/neo Nazi European political parties...Trump...Bannon...Brietbart.com and key Republicans in Congress....??????
REMEMBER.."perception is the key".....not reality.....
Austrian Freedom Party (FPO)head Strache is in Washington meeting with US Senators and members of Congress, his general secretary Vilimsky says.
Who was attending today in Koblence Germany a meeting of the European Far right/Neo Nazi parties.....all stating they was a "free Europe".....
One of the German AfD Far Right member taking part in the meeting had his Crimea trip in the face of EU sanctions paid for by a Russian far right think tank....who supports the Russian far right ideologue Dugin
NOTE: Comment from Le Pen who was there from her Far Right Party funded in this election by Putin to the tune of 9M Euros...initially he promised her 21M Euros but the Russian bank he recommended went bankrupt and now they are demanding her 9M back.....
Le Pen: Trump Inaugural speech featured “similarities to that which some of us have been saying for months, and some of us for years.”
AT least someone in the States liked Trump's speech....
Former KKK Head David Duke: Trump’s Speech is ‘War’ on Jews
http://forward.com/fast-forward/360691/former-kkk-head-trumps-speech-is…
In the face of KKK Trump support...Trump has only once and very lukewarm pushed by on KKK/Duke support.....
"In a war of perception....perception is all that counts...."
AND right now Europe "perceives" Trump to be neo right...actually a half step away from "smiling fascism"....
Trump's FP of lifting of Russian sanctions in exchange for nuclear weapons reductions ain't about to work......shot down by his very good friend Putin personally...
Today....
Kremlin spox says reductions in nuclear arms can’t be symmetrical with the US or done in any way that undermines Russia’s deterrence.
He also says that Moscow won’t trade its nukes for an end to US sanctions, and now suddenly states .....an end of sanctions isn’t a priority for Putin.
One can simply no longer make this stuff up.....
Russian Internet Users: Trump Gave Wonderful, Communist Speech. Moscow official:"Trump is president! US is ours!"
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russian-internet-users-say-trump-gave-a…
Trump initially declared war on the US IC ovr their reports on Russia hacking...then came the revelations of a joint US agency investigation of Trump advisors close to Trump being connected to Russia and Russia black money and Russia black money used to support Trump election raised by the Steele reports....
THEN Trump was to go to Langley today to make nice...BUT THEN
QUOTE:
WASHINGTON
An objection from three Democratic senators will delay the U.S. Senate’s vote to confirm Kansas Rep. Mike Pompeo as the new director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said on Friday that they oppose “a rushed confirmation” of Rep. Mike Pompeo to serve as CIA director unless senators get the opportunity to debate the nomination.
“The importance of the position of CIA Director, especially in these dangerous times, demands that the nomination be thoroughly vetted, questioned and debated,” the senators said in a statement.
The vote had been expected to happen on Friday, after the swearing-in of Donald Trump as the 45th president.
The move means Trump likely will start his presidency without his own nominee at the head of the CIA.
The senators said the CIA can protect the nation “under the leadership of its senior professional personnel” in the meantime.
“Certainly the incoming administration acknowledges that this would be consistent with their decision to hold over 50 current administration national security appointees,” the senators said. “Our constituents expect Congress to be a check and balance on the incoming administration, not a rubber stamp.”
The CIA is locked in a battle with Trump over allegations that the Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind an effort to sway the election in Trump’s favor.
“While members of the Senate give Rep. Pompeo’s nomination the careful consideration it deserves, Senator Schumer has asked Vice President Pence to keep Director Brennan on the job over the weekend,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, in a statement.
“Just as Director (Michael) Hayden served as a bridge between the Bush and Obama presidencies eight years ago, Director (John) Brennan could play the same role for the incoming and outgoing administrations, if the President is willing to keep him on,” House said.
NOW the war that Trump started has reached an interesting point....are the Democrats in the Senator ensuring with the hold which can be indefinite that the joint agency investigation does not get stopped by Trump and his advisors....maybe actually....
With Brennan resigned and Pompeo not yet confirmed, Meroe Park is now the Acting Director of the CIA. She is career CIA.
Truly remarkable listening to my national security colleagues working the phones to figure out: Who's running the CIA?
APPEARS to me that there is a serious consideration being given by senior Senate Deomcracts that Trump was going to bury the CIA portion of the investigation as they were the ones that briefed him on the accusations against him and his advisors...
By ensuring that the CIA continues to be led by an Acting Director ensures that that investigation goes forward and is not impeded...WHICH could have been buried by a new Trump nominee....
Some Congressmen who have seen the classified briefing have indicated Trump would not be President if the current classified information had been released before the election.
Interestingly Russia state media is doing it's hardest to whitewash any Russian connections and or Ukrainian connections to the Trump advisor Manafort because they sense if these connections are proven they led onwards to Trump ......
I have not seen this much Russian propaganda efforts thrown at a single issue......
Russia has officially turned its media terror machine on whitewashing Paul Manafort, demeaning #Ukraine episode.
Russian state propaganda already tried to severe Manafort's connect /w injected deliberate spins
Not satisfied with its successful efforts to manipulate the US election, Russia accuses Ukraine of sabotaging Trump
http://politi.co/2fY5OcH
This Russian senior official said :"Russia, unlike America, has never interfered into other countries state" https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/822495669755801600 …
LESSONS LEARNED from Ukrainian Russian propaganda...when Russia denies something it is true...when they accept something it is a lie......
The drive to control the flow of information is a distinct characteristic of an authoritarian regime.....are we there now?????
Trump team shut down NPS Twitter accounts after they reported crowd sizes today.
Now they're barred from sharing road conditions in winter.
Embarrassment=endangered drivers OR the first indication of an authoritarian regime building????
With the Trump speech from yesterday Trump has basically maneuvered himself into a FP corner....if he follows through on his speech he proves to the world he is a isolationist nationalist who does not care about allies......IF he attempts to tone down his rhetoric he then will be viewed with distrust as they know his full intentions via tweets.....interviews...press conferences and now his speech....
From Australia to Taiwan to Pakistan to India, world jittery about Trump's "America First" inaugural speech
http://abcn.ws/2jJjScb
Honesty will not be part and parcel of this President and his advisors and the world now knows that....that is hard to overcome....
The last US President that used the term "enemies" was Nixon....
Trump asks an inaugural ball crowd if he should "keep the Twitter going?" Because "the enemies keep saying" it's terrible
This is from the European addition this morning in Germany....
Donald Trump channels Steve Bannon in nationalist anti-Washington inaugural speech.
http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-channels-steve-bannon-inaugural…
JUST how is Trump going to convert so much distrust on the EU side into a valid US FP????
At a German rally numbering thousands against this European far right meeting...
Peaceful demonstration under the title of "Colorful BUT NOT BROWN"
This slogan seems needed in the US right about now......
QUOTE:
"Fall asleep in democracy and you wake up in a dictatorship"
UNQUOTE:
A rich American who served jail time in the US LaRoche once wrote in a book of his..."you need not wear brown to be brown" and then his daughter ran and won an EU Parliament seat under the European Worker Party-EAP....
Trump and Bannon FP hard at work already in Europe which Trump basically dismissed in his press interview recently....stating that it was going to break up anyway.....
REMEMBER while Trump is President his senior advisor Bannon is running his white nationalist company in France...Holland....UK and Germany supporting far right/neo Nazi parties against their own governments....how is that possible......double dipping at tax payers expense....????
Europe's far-right meeting in Germany today
Gang's all here: Petry, Le Pen, Wilders, Salvini, Pretzell. And the crowd already chanting 'Lügenpresse!" #Koblenz
Lueggenpresse is a Nazi slogan...the press lies.....notice anything similar in that slogan and to Trump's tweets about the US MSM????
Exactly the same thing is it not????
NOW:
Geert Wilders, in German: "Europe needs Frauke, not Angela." Crowd: "Merkel must go! Merkel must go!"
Le Pen: “In a world in which the US turns inward…patriotism is not a policy of the past, it is the policy of the future.”
Salvini: “Mr. Renzi is not the only face of Italy and Mrs. Merkel is not the only face of Germany.”
BUT WAIT he is in Germany right now....using German democracy to critique Germanns...the same Italians that fought with Hitler and sent Jews to their deaths...something the Italian neo right always tends to forget these days....
British govt tells incoming US administration that Russia and Putin have been ‘up to all sorts of very dirty tricks’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/10/putin-moscow-boris-johnso… …
THE WINDS OF CHANGE are getting a tad colder now coming out of EU towards Trump.....
German official to Trump: “If you meddle with the cohesion of the EU...you’re actually treading on our front lawn.”
Blunter that statement cannot get....
Trump repeatedly invited his "Movement" to come to DC..well they came but no so many of them it appears....
Inauguration crowd size estimates are in:
-Trump 2017: 250,000
-Obama 2013: 1,000,000
-Obama 2009: 1,800,000
OUT of the 250,000 over half of them were counter Trump demonstrators.....
So much for the Trump "Movement"....
So when Trump talks about his new American FP...who is he really talking about????
TELLING to say the least......
This is #Texas Anti Trump rally tonight: more attendees than his #Inauguration And a red state, too.
Trump's Inauguration Speech Was A Clear Declaration Of War
http://thefederalist.com/2017/01/20/tru
mps-inauguration-speech-declaration-war-ruling-class/#.WIMIoDk6wVo.twitter
Under the term "ruling class"...Europeans and Asians view themselves as now the Trump "ruling class" that he is targeting...especially after his recent interview was published....where he bashed EU...NATO...and Germany...all in the same interview...
Just how is he to conduct a FP with countries who basically now are not so trusting of Trump and or US intentions...and who is to step up and "fight together" with Trump against IS when you are being bashed by Trump.....
BUT WAIT......Trump is out of step with his own "Movement" it appears....
74% of Americans say they want Donald Trump to release his tax returns.
http://buff.ly/2jXSftx
Polling included his own voters.....
So just how is his FP to evolve when so many Americans already mistrust his statements on his taxes and on his leaving his companies...JUST how can then nation states even trust him????
Another link analysis of the Trump business empire that he does not want to disconnect from thus causing a direct conflict of interest in his FP decisions....MEANING will Trump make hard FP decisions in the end that affects his businesses/meaning business loses OR will he make decisions in the support of the US....
Trump's holdings. Should be easy to avoid conflicts of interest.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/19/inside-trumps-holdings-a-web-of-potentia…
QUOTE:.....notice the Trump comments here...and do not convince me he did not know until three months ago about the US laws...he has been wanting to run since 1998....
But, in the end, he has dismissed calls to sell his holdings outright, saying that conflict of interest provisions don't apply to U.S. presidents.
"As you know, I have a no-conflict situation because I'm president, which is — I didn't know about that until about three months ago, but it's a nice thing to have," Trump told reporters last week
Trump is referring to Title 18, Section 208 of the U.S. Code, which governs the financial interests of government employees, and specifically exempts "the President, the Vice President, a Member of Congress, or a Federal judge."
But some legal experts note that other conflict of interest rules trump that law, including a section of the U.S. Constitution — known as the emoluments clause — which bans the president from accepting gifts or compensation from foreign governments.
UNQUOTE
NOTE: as a former civil service employee training foreign military personnel...I had to fill out forms and get JAG approval in order to accept a 5 USD gift from Bulgarian officers...AND Trump being civil service as well can continue to make millions with his businesses while in government...??
MAKE sense to anyone?????
Trump lied to the general public in his last press conference...did he not????
AND this bodes well for his FP..can it even be trusted to not constantly change.....
He has stated no one ..meaning his 46% voters are interested in his tax returns but the "others" 48% are in fact interested AND he stated he was going to leave his companies....BOTH have not been done......no tax returns published nor did he leave his companies before he became President THUS he is now in full conflict of interests and no long an ethnical president is he???
President Trump has not yet resigned from his companies:
http://hill.cm/5DA42P9
QUOTE:
President Trump has not yet formally resigned from his business empire, despite taking office on Friday, Pro Publica reports.
As of 3:15 p.m. on Friday, officials in New York, Delaware and Florida, where Trump’s companies are registered or incorporated, said they had not yet received the paperwork necessary for Trump to officially transfer control of his businesses to his two eldest sons and a longtime associate, according to the report.
The Pro Publica report examined more than a dozen of Trump’s largest companies and found that the newly inaugurated president hasn’t yet taken the proper steps to remove himself from their business operations.
The report raises further questions about potential conflicts of interest the real estate mogul could face in the Oval Office.
Trump has also said he would shut down the controversial Donald J. Trump Foundation, but the report found that documents pertaining to the charitable organization haven’t been updated.
The finding contradicts Trump’s claim last week that he has completely removed himself from his companies.
A lawyer for Trump, Sheri Dillon, said at the same news conference that the president’s business interests would be placed in a family trust by Inauguration Day.
Despite those announcements, ethics experts and lawyers have argued that doing so would not truly resolve Trump’s potential conflicts of interest, saying that the only way for him to avoid such issues would be to fully divest from his businesses.
Trump and his associates “are not doing what they said they would do,” Richard Painter, President George W. Bush’s chief ethics attorney, told Pro Publica. “And even that was completely inadequate.”
But Trump has held that he will not do so, and Dillon said last week that total divestiture could take a financial toll on Trump. What’s more, Trump’s massive real estate holdings, like golf courses and hotels, would prove difficult to sell off.
“President-elect Trump cannot be expected to destroy the company he built,” Dillon said at the news conference.
The president isn’t required by law to completely divest from business interests. But no past president has had a web of business interests as vast as Trump, who owns properties around the world.
Notice the interesting similarities between Brexit and the US election of Trump....for almost the same reasons....also driven by populism....
Brexit is the result of an English delusion, a crisis of identity resulting from a failure to come to terms with the loss of empire and the end of its own exceptionalism, argues Cambridge University professor Nicholas Boyle
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the_problem_with_the_englis…
Polar bears are dying in record numbers...and the ice is melting at the North and South Poles in record amounts BUT all is well in Trumpland....
BUT...it ain't humans".....just as Russia states...it ain't us invading eastern Ukraine.....
President Trump's new administration has already announced its commitment to eliminate the Climate Action Plan.
http://abcn.ws/2ka54jQ
Climate change defined by the DoD as a major security risk for the US...looks like SecDef Mattis is in for a rough ride these coming weeks....
I am not the only one seeing the FP problems with the Trump speech.....
Asian media decry isolationist Trump, fear economic, diplomatic turmoil
http://reut.rs/2jJxPXz
THIS is what is bothering the Asians and the European allies....appears the US no longer needs allies of any sort under the world vision of Trump and his merry company of isolationists and billionaires.....
Trump’s dark promise to return to a mythical past
http://wpo.st/qH4T2
BUT how he is eradicate radical Islam from the earth with other countries outside of Russia who cannot even find IS in Syria in order to bomb them...AFTER this speech and he has virtually no ambassadors in place on Day 1......
Remember when Trump critiqued NATO for not "fighting terrorism" thus being obsolete???????
Denmark to Send Special Forces Into Syria | via @UPI
http://tinyurl.com/jswgvk5
Hopefully all SWC readers fully understand the Trump statement...
QUOTE:
"I will eradicate radical Islam from the face of the earth"
UNQUOTE:
As a call to total war against a religion called Islam and a massive recruiting tool now handed AQ and IS AS this is exactly what they tell all Sunni's over and over and over...the West is not your friend and protector and democracy is worthless....
NOT so sure those in the US military signed up for a total war after 15 years of war already which has not eradicated "radical Islam".....
BESIDES it means war with Iran as well as they export their model of radical Islam called "Revolutionary Islam"...since Khomeini's days....
BUT WAIT...is this war not what Flynn ...Bannon....and others have been calling for....?
Carl Bildt
✔
@carlbildt
There has been "America First" before in US history. It was the isolationist movement against war against Hitler.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-america-first-20170120-…
Substitute Putin for Hitler and you fully understand the many Trump statements for Putin.....
I have written this a number of times concerning Trump and his “Movement” as he calls it…BTW using the term "Movement" much in the style of the Nazi NSDAP in the German 30s……
“People love populists…until they govern…..”
REMEMBEr this one simple fact the Trump use of “America First” was not his creation …was a movement in the 30s to keep the US out of the war…..
So again when one is so wrapped up in a “Movement” what will the FP look like…we are already seeing it…as voiced in the Trump speech yesterday…….
The defining feature of populism is not anti-elitism but anti-pluralism. Populists claim that they, and they alone, represent the "real" people.
Populists do not really call for greater democracy: populism without participation is an entirely coherent proposition.
Populism is based on a fiction but it is not fictional politics: there are real citizens supporting it.
Conspiracy theories are rooted in the very logic of populism itself.
http://bostonreview.net/politics/jan-werner-muller-populism?utm_content…
Ever notice that the Trump influence operations still continue at virtually every level......
Book about Trump for sale at National Museum of American History is riddled with falsehoods
So for 50 USDs you can get a book from a National Museum loaded with falsehoods????
BUT WAIT a Trump nominee who plagiarized her books and PhD..had to be pounded by MSM to get her removed......AND her publishers pulled the books from the market place......BUT a Museum can continue to sell "falsehoods"...where is the difference....????
Trump stated he wants to eradicate radical Islam......HOPEFULLY he also includes the Iranian IRGC...Hezbollah and the Iraqi Hezbollah under that statement...otherwise it was just for PR effects for his voting base....
Shia radical Islam is just as deadly as Sunni jihadists....and Iran has US blood on their hands WHICH Trump appears to have totally forgotten....
Trump talks a tough line of adding more ships to the Navy..but first he needs more manpower to man them..BUT more importantly is he ready to place the 6th Fleet with two carrier groups fully and completely back into the Med..which would anger his great friend Putin who has now taken over the Med...
While we watched the inaugiration distraction, Russia & Syria signed a 49 plus 25-year agreement for deployment of RU nuclear subs/ships in Syria.
Here's the full text of the unannounced treaty that makes Syria a de facto perpetual free military base of Russia
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Docu...pe=pdf#…
Up to 11 [nuclear] ships will be able to dock in at any time. Agreement
automatically extended for 25 further years after inital 49 term.
* RU has no-cost right to use Syrian territory for deployment of its bases
* Syrian gov't have no right of access
* Full immunity for RU
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT.....
Even if the anti Assad opposition gets into power and Assad is thrown out...they still have to deal with Putin and Russia for 49 plus 25 years...Syria is now effectively part and parcel of the Russian sphere of influence FOREVER....
Thanks to Obama ditching 70 odd years of US ME FP and we will be thanking Trump as well as he wants to eradicate IS using Russia and Assad and IRAN.....AND especially Hezbollah....
NOW just as I have repeatedly stated here...what you see in Trump is what you will be getting....his FP is actually quite simple....this proves it....
US is heading straight into numerous trade wars and total isolation.....but that is what those that voted for Trump failed to realize...it is about their jobs...they are right ..their own .....
BY ditching TTP...Trump as effectively handed the entire Asian trade markets to China to dictate standards...tariffs and trade agreements...AND a lot of US allies I the Asian area put their political careers on the line to swing this trade deal who will now shift their trade alliances towards China...as they see the US as an "unstable" trading partner who cannot be trusted to delivery on anything....
Trump trade strategy starts with quitting Asia pact: White House
http://reut.rs/2iVtnBb
The next FP policy change with be the Trump ditching of the US/Chinese "One China policy"....but the Chinese have already signaled they are ready for retaliation on that move...Trump just does not believe they will...a seriously fatal mistake as China has the NK card to yet play.....
The third move will be clashing with the EU over his 35% tariff threats and the resulting EU 35% tariffs on critical US exports especially agricultural products...
Fourth move....lifting of all US sanctions on Russia...unless the US IC investigation into his and his advisors ties to Russia comes home faster than he thinks or he thinks he can stop....
Fifth move...curtailing US participation in the numerous ongoing NATO exercises under the guise of it costs US to much money which we could spend at home....and his curtailing of Article 5..all which he has already signaled his intention on...all in print to be read by all...
If he is successful at stopping that espionage investigation then US allies will leak...is a given these days....
SO did the FBI deliberately kill the story of the Russian connections to Trump advisors and then potentially onto to Trump as it appears that they did in fact kill a complete entire news cycle which included TV media...
SO were they protecting the then/now ongoing investigation and or protecting Trump..very valid question now...?
Especially in light of how they released outright fake nonsense on Clinton right before the election....
After NYT published FBI Clinton email lies, cable news bookers told me that networks backed off the Russia story.
WAS this deliberately done by the FBI...valid question now that we know there is an ongoing FIVE US Agency investigation of Trump advisors complete with SIGINT data...and a FISA warrant....
Is the so called US values of democracy...rule of law...transparency now fully and completely broken....and broken by the very FBI who supposedly is the guarantor for defense of the US inside the US or at least that is their so called remit....
We know for example that the FBI comments towards Clinton and the "newly found emails" was a fake news story which actually some polling experts are saying directly contributed to the loss of 77K key votes in three key electoral college states costing Clinton the election....they are actually able to depict statistically that 77K shift......
BUT where is the outrage???
We now know the FBI was already on a long hunt for Russian connections to Trump and his advisors....LARGELY driven by US IC under the Espionage Act..NOT driven by surprise surprise FBI CI Division....
I know for a fact that an email server was in fact talking to another email server between Trump Tower and Alfa Bank in Moscow yet the FBI said and did nothing..AND I sit in Berlin.....WHY is that??
NOW if this article is correct...the FBI actually covered up the now ongoing Trump advisor Russian investigation by blocking correct information about to be published....UNTIL AFTER the election....
AND this is the current form of US democracy..really no different that what goes on inside Moscow only we do not yet kill the opposition...not yet at least...
I was once told by an intel analyst instructor.."to be good in this business drain your blood and replace it with ice water".....but what we are seeing in the actual already proven Russia connections between Page via Gazprom which every Ukrainian knows is the corruption machine of Moscow...Stone a former dirty tricks 19 yr old for Nixon and Manafort who is directly tied to the GRU...and how FBI has to a degree largely covered up..goes beyond being pale......it now goes to the destruction of the US form of checks and balances...........
Trump, Russia, and the News Story That Wasn’t
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/public-editor/trump-russia-fbi-li…
LATE fall was a frantic period for New York Times reporters covering the country’s secretive national security apparatus. Working sources at the F.B.I., the C.I.A., Capitol Hill and various intelligence agencies, the team chased several bizarre but provocative leads that, if true, could upend the presidential race. The most serious question raised by the material was this: Did a covert connection exist between Donald Trump and Russian officials trying to influence an American election?
One vein of reporting centered on a possible channel of communication between a Trump organization computer server and a Russian bank with ties to Vladimir Putin. Another source was offering The Times salacious material describing an odd cross-continental dance between Trump and Moscow. The most damning claim was that Trump was aware of Russia’s efforts to hack Democratic computers, an allegation with implications of treason. Reporters Eric Lichtblau and Steven Lee Myers led the effort, aided by others.
Conversations over what to publish were prolonged and lively, involving Washington and New York, and often including the executive editor, Dean Baquet. If the allegations were true, it was a huge story. If false, they could damage The Times’s reputation. With doubts about the material and with the F.B.I. discouraging publication, editors decided to hold their fire.
But was that the right decision? Was there a way to write about some of these allegations using sound journalistic principles but still surfacing the investigation and important leads? Eventually, The Times did just that, but only after other news outlets had gone first.
I have spoken privately with several journalists involved in the reporting last fall, and I believe a strong case can be made that The Times was too timid in its decisions not to publish the material it had.
I appreciate the majority view that there wasn’t enough proof of a link between Trump and the Kremlin to write a hard-hitting story. But The Times knew several critical facts: the F.B.I. had a sophisticated investigation underway on Trump’s organization, possibly including FISA warrants. (Some news outlets now report that the F.B.I. did indeed have such warrants, an indication of probable cause.) Investigators had identified a mysterious communication channel, partly through a lead from anti-Trump operatives
At one point, the F.B.I. was so serious about its investigation into the server that it asked The Times to delay publication. Meanwhile, reporters had met with a former British intelligence officer who was building the dossier. While his findings were difficult to confirm, Times reporting bore out that he was respected in his craft. And of his material that was checkable, no significant red flags emerged. What’s more, said one journalist frustrated with the process, a covert link seemed like a plausible explanation for the strange bromance between Trump and Putin.
There were disagreements about whether to hold back. There was even an actual draft of a story. But it never saw daylight. The deciding vote was Baquet’s, who was adamant, then and now, that they made the right call.
“We heard about the back-channel communications between the Russians and Trump,” he said. “We reported it, and found no evidence that it was true. We wrote everything we knew — and we wrote a lot. Anybody that thinks we sat on stuff is outrageous. It’s just false.”
I don’t believe anyone suppressed information for ignoble reasons, and indeed The Times produced strong work on former campaign chairman Paul Manafort. But the idea that you only publish once every piece of information is in and fully vetted is a false construct.
If you know the F.B.I. is investigating, say, a presidential candidate, using significant resources and with explosive consequences, that should be enough to write. Not a “gotcha” story that asserts unsubstantiated facts. But a piece that describes the nature of the investigations, the unexplained but damning leads, with emphasis on what is known and what isn’t.
Running every detail of the dossier, as BuzzFeed did, would have been irresponsible. Writing about a significant investigation would not. Weeks after The Times had the goods, Franklin Foer of Slate and David Corn of Mother Jones each took a turn at such pre-election articles. Their stories may not have been precisely what The Times would have done, but they offered a model.
If The Times didn’t write about ongoing investigations, it wouldn’t have produced the excellent scoop on Trump associates and Russia that broke Thursday night. Nor would it have so relentlessly documented the F.B.I.’s pursuit of Hillary Clinton’s emails until all facts were resolved. That investigation was fair game, and so was Trump’s.
A wave of readers over the past week have challenged The Times’s decision to sit on its reporting about the dossier. Among them was Michael Russo of Brooklyn, who had this to say:
I can appreciate that journalistic diligence requires your paper to describe these memos as “unsubstantiated.” But the “unsubstantiated” allegations described in this article have been circulating for months. While your editors made a value judgment about the veracity of these claims, American intelligence agencies apparently took the memos seriously enough to open their own investigations. How is this not newsworthy in its own right?
There is an unsettling theme that runs through The Times’s publishing decisions. In each instance, it was the actions of government officials that triggered newsroom decisions — not additional reporting or insight that journalists gained. On the server, once the F.B.I. signaled it had grown wary of its importance — without giving conclusive evidence as to why — the paper backed off. Weeks later, the Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid, publicly admonished the F.B.I. for being secretive about its probe of Trump. That gave The Times cover to write what it knew about the bureau’s investigation into the bank server.
It was the same pattern on the dossier. Only after learning from CNN that Trump and President Obama had been briefed on the document did The Times publish what it had known for months. Its confidence in the material had not changed, nor did its editors know whether the top level briefing meant the government believed the information was true. But the briefing became justifiable cause to publish.
In this cat-and-mouse game between government and press, the government won.
After-action insights are easier than in-the-moment decisions. Back then, the media still thought Trump was a weak challenger to Clinton, a mind-set that might have made taking the risk of publishing explosive allegations all the more fraught.
But it’s hard not to wonder what impact such information might have had on voters still evaluating the candidates, an issue I chided The Times for not pursuing enough in an earlier column. Would more sources have come forward? Would we already know the essential facts?
If the new president was in fact colluding with a foreign adversary, journalists and investigators should feel enormous pressure to conclusively establish that fact. If it is not true, both Trump and the country deserve to have this issue put to rest.
What a so called leader of the Free World.....
Trump's new Twitter background photo is from Obama's #Inauguration.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2017/01/20/donald_trump_s_new_twitt…
What not enough people actually showed up to create a photo op for Trump's twitter site?????
With a Trump mouse click..climate change no longer exists for the President of the US...appears he has never spoken to the polar bears about it....
All references to climate change have been deleted from the White House website:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-references-to-climate-change-have-…
AND yet we debate his FP directions.....
Anonymous @YourAnonCentral declares war on @realDonaldTrump and threatens to expose 'Russian ties'
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/anonymous-declares-war-donald-trump-963636…
With Trump WYSIWYG.....and his first FP statement.....
"America First Foreign Policy" statement on incoming admin's new http://WhiteHouse.gov site
https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-foreign-policy …
FROM a former high level European political figure...
Carl Bildt
✔
@carlbildt
Probably first time a new US President doesn’t use the term “the free world”. Instead unite “the civilized world”. Clearly a difference.
Seriously, renouncing Wilsonianism, 100 years late, is great, but seems highly incompatible with Trump's promised total war on radical Islam
Except for, you know, the endless, all-fronts global war on radical Islam which POTUS just promised the world.
Hope the US military is ready to deploy overseas...forever.....as radical Islam is not going to disappear for decades.....
As Trump's actions will in the end just strengthen it into a clash of civilizations....