News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. How American Politics Got Troops Stuck—and Killed—in Afghanistan
2. Antony Blinken warns China: 'It would be a very serious mistake' to attack Taiwan
3. US Presses Taliban to Ease Violence, Resume Peace Talks
4. Xi claims ultimate authority, adopts Mao's title 'helmsman'
5. Cyber Command shifts counterterrorism task force to focus on higher-priority threats
6. Why Afghanistan is critical to the struggle against China, Russia and Iran
7. Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity
8. Leaving Afghanistan Will Make America Less Safe
9. Failing to Train: Conventional Forces in Irregular Warfare
10. #Reviewing Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World
11. Opinion | Biden’s Taiwan Policy Is Truly, Deeply Reckless
12. Any reduction in Energy Department's cybersecurity resources a mistake
13. Eddie Gallagher now says SEALs intended to kill unarmed fighter and ‘nobody had a problem with it’
14. Opinion: China's New Silk Road is full of potholes
15. China does not want war, at least not yet. It’s playing the long game
16. As U.S. warns of invasion, Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat
1. How American Politics Got Troops Stuck—and Killed—in Afghanistan
Politico · by Erik Edstrom · May 4, 2021
What a powerful and sobering essay. There is so much to unpack in this. Make sure you read to the end to find out about what happened to the soldier, A.J. Nelson.
2. Antony Blinken warns China: 'It would be a very serious mistake' to attack Taiwan
Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · May 4, 2021
Excerpt: “The bottom line is we have managed Taiwan, I think, quite well and quite effectively,” Blinken said. "What is very troubling and very concerning is that Beijing seems to be taking a different approach, acting aggressively.”
3. US Presses Taliban to Ease Violence, Resume Peace Talks
voanews.com · Ayaz Gul · May 4, 2021
What leverage or incentive is there if the US is committed to leaving by September 11th? Are we going to initiate military operations on a scale sufficient to cause the Taliban to halt the violence?
Questions I wonder about: What changes to conditions might cause the US to reverse or at least postpone the decision to withdraw? Since the withdrawal process has begun at what point will we no longer have the military capabilities to conduct operations beyond defending the withdrawal? What is the point of no return for the withdrawal -e.g., at what point will we no longer have the military capabilities to support Afghan forces and thus can only be fully committed to the withdrawal? What is the point of no return? And at that point what do we expect the Taliban, AQ, or ISIS to do?
4. Xi claims ultimate authority, adopts Mao's title 'helmsman'
washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz
Excerpt: “The most famous sobriquet of Mao, founder of the Chinese Communist Party and hero of the Chinese Revolution, was “Great Helmsman.” Mr. Xi’s use of the term highlights what analysts say is his plan to consolidate his rule under an extreme Chinese version of communism.”
5. Cyber Command shifts counterterrorism task force to focus on higher-priority threats
c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · May 4, 2021
CT is no longer fashionable. But terrorism is not going away. The question is can we walk and chew gum at the same time? Can we compete in great power competition and still commit sufficient resources and capabilities to counter violent extremist organizations? Cyber will always provide critical capabilities to the CT fight.
6. Why Afghanistan is critical to the struggle against China, Russia and Iran
militarytimes.com · by Rep. Michael Waltz · May 3, 2021
Excerpts: “Bagram Airfield remains our sole strategic key terrain in the backyards of three of our four global competitors — China, Russia, and Iran — and we have no other options in the region.
The governments in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan have shown little willingness to host American bases and the Gulf states are problematic as our aircraft have to fly over Iran or Pakistan.
We will be effectively blind in our abilities to fight back, should terrorists based in Afghanistan successfully launch another attack on our homeland.
Like the Obama administration, President Biden is dealing with the world as it wishes it to be rather than accepting the tough reality of what it is.
The United States cannot give up this key terrain that we have spent so much blood and treasure to fight for and may cost us far more lives if we have to fight without it in the future.
7. Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity
Foreign Affairs · by Ashraf Ghani · May 4, 2021
The president of a country should know what's best for his country and we should pay attention.
Conclusion: "As we move into uncharted waters for Afghanistan, I am focused on achieving the best possible outcome of this long period of conflict: a sovereign, Islamic, democratic, united, neutral, and connected Afghanistan. I am willing to compromise and sacrifice to achieve that. The withdrawal of U.S. troops is an opportunity to get us closer to that end state, but only if all Afghans and their international partners commit to a clear path forward and stay the course."
8. Leaving Afghanistan Will Make America Less Safe
warontherocks.com · by Bruce Hoffman · May 5, 2021
Conclusion: "There are no perfect options. But instead of turning its back on Afghanistan, the United States should shift its rhetoric in the “Global War on Terror” away from “winning” and “losing” and toward “managing” and “accepting.” This would facilitate an ongoing but limited troop presence with a clear homeland security, not nation-building, brief. Keeping a small number of elite troops in Afghanistan, while unlikely to elicit roars of approval at campaign rallies in the 2024 presidential race, would likely keep both the Taliban and al-Qaeda at bay in the country while protecting a forward operating base on China’s and Russia’s doorstep. Withdrawal, by contrast, will be universally seen as defeat. As with bin Laden 25 years ago, it will give a rhetorical victory to terrorists the world over. And it will boost the morale of state adversaries that benefit from the perception of U.S. weakness."
9. Failing to Train: Conventional Forces in Irregular Warfare
mwi.usma.edu · by James W. Derleth · May 5, 2021
A lack of irregular warfare education and training for the military writ large. Congress has a partial "fix" for this in the NDAA Section 1299L. Of course we really need a "center" that goes beyond DOD - we need an interagency center at the national level. Irregular warfare is the DOD contribution to the national level political warfare effort.
10. #Reviewing Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World
thestrategybridge.org · by Frank Hoffman · May 4, 2021
An excellent review essay from Frank Hoffman. He identifies some key questions missing from book:
“Imbrie’s questions are not a complete set. In particular, he overlooks the role of American values at home and in the world it can and must engage with. Should America be merely an exemplar or exporting enforcer of its basic ideals? Walter McDougall's Promised Land, Crusader State exemplifies this choice, and argues for setting an example here at home.[10] The question Imbrie and readers should add is “How active should the U. S. be in shaping a liberal order beyond its own shores, to extend a liberal hegemony?”[11] Should the U. S. actively oppose illiberal societies or merely set an example, a shining beacon and a City on a Hill? Should U.S. leaders tend to their own unruly garden at home, or trim back what Robert Kagan called the unruly jungle?[12] Should it retrench and wait for the swarm of foreign rivals to gather, or sit complacently at home?”
11. Opinion | Biden’s Taiwan Policy Is Truly, Deeply Reckless
The New York Times · by Peter Beinart · May 5, 2021
As the headline says Mr. Beinart offers a scathing critique of the administration and Taiwan.
Excerpts: “It’s reckless because deterrence requires power and will, and when it comes to Taiwan, the United States is deficient in both. According to Fareed Zakaria, “The Pentagon has reportedly enacted 18 war games against China over Taiwan, and China has prevailed in every one.”
...
There’s another reason deterrence alone won’t work: China cares more. In 2017, mainland Chinese said that Taiwan topped their list of “concerns about the U.S.-China relationship.” Among Americans, by contrast, Taiwan didn’t make the top seven.
...
What’s crucial is that the Taiwanese people preserve their individual freedom and the planet does not endure a third world war. The best way for the United States to pursue those goals is by maintaining America’s military support for Taiwan while also maintaining the “one China” framework that for more than four decades has helped keep the peace in one of the most dangerous places on earth.
Hawks will call this appeasement. So be it. Ask them how many American lives they’re willing to risk so the United States can have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
12. Any reduction in Energy Department's cybersecurity resources a mistake
The Hill · by Mark Montgomery · May 4, 2021
Excerpt: “As the senators wrote, “[t]he reliability and resilience of the electric grid is critical to the economic and national security of the United States.”
Unless DOE continues to prioritize cybersecurity risks to our electric grid, the plans it had drawn out so far will be of little to no use. An assistant secretary level leader, with a properly resourced office has been, and will continue to be, key to this success. Hopefully, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of a reduction in seniority of the CESER billet are greatly exaggerated. But if not, any such reduction would be a critical error at a critical time.
13. Eddie Gallagher now says SEALs intended to kill unarmed fighter and ‘nobody had a problem with it’
taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · May 4, 2021
I have no words for this man and his actions.
14. Opinion: China's New Silk Road is full of potholes
DW · by Deutsche Welle
An interesting German perspective.
15. China does not want war, at least not yet. It’s playing the long game
theconversation.com · by John Blaxland
We all must play the long game. The question is can we?
16. As U.S. warns of invasion, Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat
NBC News · by Louise Watt · May 5, 2021
Subversion. A key line of effort in unconventional warfare.
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- Mark Twain
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- President John F. Kennedy
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