News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
Happy Birthday U.S. Army.
1. This was one of the worst weeks for China on the world stage in a while
2. Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility
3. U.S. Fight Against Chinese 5G Efforts Shifts From Threats to Incentives
4. Heads of G7 agree to invest on B3W infrastructure
5. How Congress can fight Hamas's use of human shields
6. The personal impact of an American general on an Afghan officer
7. FDD | Biden Lifts Sanctions on Firms Linked to Key Assad Backer
8. FDD | What to Expect From the Biden-Putin Summit
9. Beijing Protests a Lab Leak Too Much
10. How States Can Respond If Biden Lifts Iran Sanctions
11. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China
12. NATO allies seek clarity on maintaining secure facilities in Afghanistan following troop withdrawal
13. G7 ballyhoos challenge to China’s Belt and Road
14. Imperfect competition between US and China: Statesman
15. Ransomware’s suspected Russian roots point to a long detente between the Kremlin and hackers
16. The West is uniting to confront China. How worried should Beijing be?
17. NATO to look eastward and inward at summit
18. Biden’s B3W proposal no serious threat to China’s BRI
19. Biden meets with foreign leaders as ambassadorships sit vacant
20. The Party Is Not Forever | by Minxin Pei
21. US father and son admit helping Ghosn flee Japan
22. Why We Can’t Move On From Jan. 6
23. Analysis: Mystery of 1999 US stealth jet shootdown returns with twist
1. This was one of the worst weeks for China on the world stage in a while
news.yahoo.com · by Linette Lopez
Excerpts: “Legendary American diplomat George Kennan - known for outlining the US policy of containing the USSR during the Cold War - used to say that the US people are always about 10 years behind its diplomats when it comes to seeing danger from abroad. Lecturing back in 1950 he compared democracies to a giant prehistoric monster "with a body as long as this room and a brain the size of a pin" that needs to be directly confronted with a problem before it awakens from the "comfortable primeval mud." But when a challenge does gain our attention, Kennan said, the country lashes out with "such blind determination that he not only destroys his adversary but largely wrecks his native habitat."
Perhaps the US has learned something from Kennan. Consider the Senate's passage of a 2,400 page bill aimed at shoring up the US as an economic and technological superpower. The size and scope of the bill shows that our leaders are trying to meet a challenge before it's an emergency.
2. Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility
CNN · by Zachary Cohen
For those who remember - Three Mile Island or Chernobyl?
Excerpts: “While US officials have deemed the situation does not currently pose a severe safety threat to workers at the plant or Chinese public, it is unusual that a foreign company would unilaterally reach out to the American government for help when its Chinese state-owned partner is yet to acknowledge a problem exists. The scenario could put the US in a complicated situation should the leak continue or become more severe without being fixed.
However, concern was significant enough that the National Security Council held multiple meetings last week as they monitored the situation, including two at the deputy level and another gathering at the assistant secretary level on Friday, which was led by NSC Senior Director for China Laura Rosenberger and Senior Director for Arms Control Mallory Stewart, according to US officials.
...
Still, Rofer, the retired nuclear scientist, warns that a gas leak could indicate bigger problems.
"If they do have a gas leak, that indicates some of their containment is broken," Rofer said. "It also argues that maybe some of the fuel elements could be broken, which would be a more serious problem."
"That would be a reason for shutting down the reactor and would then require the reactor to be refueled," Rofer told CNN, adding that removing the fuel elements must be done carefully.
For now, US officials do not think the leak is at "crisis level," but acknowledge it is increasing and bears monitoring, the source familiar with the situation told CNN.
While there is a chance the situation could become a disaster, US officials currently believe it is more likely that it will not become one, the source added.
3. U.S. Fight Against Chinese 5G Efforts Shifts From Threats to Incentives
WSJ · by Stu Woo and Drew Hinshaw
Excerpts: “Ms. Kaptur said such countries still have weak economies and should be offered alternatives to Beijing-backed infrastructure projects. “They are countries at risk,” she said.
Many Central and Eastern European countries, including Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states, have been broadly receptive to American arguments against Huawei. Many also view strong military relations with the U.S. as vital after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
Many have been skeptical of China, too. In 2019, Poland jailed a Huawei executive on espionage charges, while Baltic and Romanian governments have taken steps to limit their countries’ use of Huawei. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis has demanded China replace its current ambassador to his country, after a series of public spats largely about the role of Huawei in the country.
Yet the Chinese government has found partners in the region, particularly in Hungary, whose capital Budapest is hosting a new Huawei research center. Huawei opened a similar center in Serbia last year. Several countries have also signed up for Beijing’s Belt and Road program, in which Chinese government-backed institutions largely finance and build highways, ports and other infrastructure.
4. Heads of G7 agree to invest on B3W infrastructure
donga.com · June 14, 2021
The Korean press is picking up on the B3W narrative.
Excerpt: “According to the White House, heads of G7 countries including U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to invest on the global infrastructure at the G7 summit held in Cornwall, the U.K. on Saturday (local time). The project is called “B3W (Build Back Better World),” which was named after Biden’s presidential campaign “Build Back Better.” It is garnering attention as it is the first alternative of advanced countries against China’s project.
5. How Congress can fight Hamas's use of human shields
The Hill · by Orde F. Kittrie and Matthew Zweig · June 11, 2021
Conclusion: ”Finally, Congress should request that the administration pursue a legally binding UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) focused on countering human shields use by terrorists. It would not have to address a particular situation, armed conflict, or illicit armed group, and may not draw a veto from China or from Russia (which itself has repeatedly complained of human shields use against it).The resolution could require all member states to take steps to hinder, and impose consequences for, human shields use. This includes adopting national legislation criminalizing human shields use. Similar resolutions have already required national legislation and other measures to counter terrorism, the recruitment of foreign fighters, and the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Congress has led the way before in combating the use of human shields; it should lead again.
6. The personal impact of an American general on an Afghan officer
militarytimes.com · by Col. Abdul Rahman Rahmani · June 11, 2021
7. FDD | Biden Lifts Sanctions on Firms Linked to Key Assad Backer
fdd.org · by David Adesnik · June 11, 2021
Excerpts: “The appearance of hesitation to hold the Assad regime accountable comes at an inopportune moment as Biden prepares for his first summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A major issue of contention there will be Putin’s readiness to employ starvation as a weapon against Syrian civilians who remain in areas outside the Assad regime’s control. Specifically, Putin may employ Russia’s veto to block the UN Security Council’s reauthorization of aid deliveries into northwest Syria directly from Turkey, a route that bypasses Damascus, thereby preventing Assad from blocking or diverting the shipments.
If the administration did lift sanctions on ASM and Silver Pine as an indicator of goodwill toward Assad, Moscow, or Tehran, that would be a mistake, since they have no record of reciprocating. Within the past week, Syrian shelling and Russian air raids killed even more civilians. Concessions at this point would likely communicate a lack of resolve on Washington’s part.
The administration should quickly clarify why it chose to delist two of Foz’s companies. If it alleges their conduct has changed, it should present evidence of that change, since Foz and his other companies remain leading contributors to the Assad regime’s finances. More broadly, the administration should clarify its still-undefined policy toward Syria and appoint a special envoy of a stature comparable to those who served under the previous administration.
8. FDD | What to Expect From the Biden-Putin Summit
fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · June 11, 2021
Excerpt: “The summary above is just a cursory look at the points of tension between the U.S. and Russia. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated it does not think that relations between the U.S. and Russia “need to continue on a negative trajectory.”
9. Beijing Protests a Lab Leak Too Much
WSJ · by Perry Link
China as a Shakespearean tragedy?
Excerpt: “The Chinese Communist Party’s official account of the virus is that it “jumped” from bats to humans at a wet market not far from the Wuhan lab. The city government was quick to close down that market, seal it off and provide the world with photos showing that the sealing had been done. Why were the authorities so swift and conspicuous? Because they suspected the wet market or because they wanted the world to? If they were certain that Mother Nature was the culprit, why silence their scientists and seal laboratory records? And why begin a vicious cyberstruggle against someone who records daily life as she sees it?
10. How States Can Respond If Biden Lifts Iran Sanctions
National Review Online · by Richard Goldberg · June 11, 2021
Excerpts: “Governors could get even more creative. Willie Sutton infamously said he robbed banks because “that’s where the money is.” The same is true for effective sanctions policy — target the banks and financial transactions.
The State of Florida passed an Iran banking law in 2012 that required all chartered banks to certify that they did not engage in transactions with the Central Bank of Iran or other dirty Iranian banks. The hiccup: The list of those companies would be based on the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions list, which isn’t much help as the Biden administration prepares to lift most Iran sanctions.
There may be an easy fix for Florida and other interested governors. As it happens, foreign banks must apply to state regulators to open offices and establish representation. States could add a simple certification requirement for existing and future applicants: With an exception for trade in food and medicine, the bank must pledge it will not facilitate transactions with or for any entity in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
11. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China
dailynk.com · Ha Yoon Ah · June 14, 2021
As Frost wrote: "good fences make good neighbors."
12. NATO allies seek clarity on maintaining secure facilities in Afghanistan following troop withdrawal
The Washington Post · by Karen DeYoung · June 13, 2021
A lot of details:”Asked about the airport and medical facility in Kabul, McKenzie said “our plans are very far advanced on what our posture is going to look like after we complete the withdrawal” of U.S. forces “and of course our NATO and other partners there.”
But while “I recognize it’s a subject of abiding interest to many people,” he said, making such information public could give tactical advantage “to those who would attack us.”
Health-care standards in Kabul are so poor that most embassies would be forced to shut down if the medical facility adjacent to the international airport, equipped to provide care to diplomats and NATO personnel, although without an intensive care capability, was not able to remain operational and in a secure environment.
13. G7 ballyhoos challenge to China’s Belt and Road
asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · June 14, 2021
The acronym B3W may be catching on.
Excerpts: “US President Joe Biden, who has placed China at the heart of his global strategy, has been the driving force behind the mega-initiatives in tandem with key allies. The stated aim is not to compete with China on a dollar-to-dollar or vaccine-to-vaccine basis per se, but instead provide the rules of the road for a transparent and democratic global order.
It marks a major departure from the days of the Trump administration, which alienated G7 allies with its bellicose and “America First” protectionist rhetoric, while constantly criticizing China without providing any concrete alternatives.
In a statement, the White House described the B3W as an indispensable initiative to “help narrow the $40+ trillion infrastructure need in the developing world, which has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“The driving animating purpose of this G7 summit is to show that democracy can deliver against the biggest challenges we’re facing in the world,” a senior Biden administration official told the media, underscoring the ideological element of the grouping as a club of like-minded democracies.
14. Imperfect competition between US and China: Statesman
straitstimes.com · June 14, 2021
A view from India.
15. Ransomware’s suspected Russian roots point to a long detente between the Kremlin and hackers
The Washington Post · by Isabelle Khurshudyan and Loveday Morris · June 12, 2021
"Detente?" This is more like Hybrid Warfare (from Frank Hoffman):
“A hybrid threat transcends a blend of regular and irregular tactics. More than a decade ago, it was defined as an adversary that “simultaneously and adaptively employs a fused mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, catastrophic terrorism, and criminal behavior in the battlespace to obtain desired political objectives.”54 The criminal, or more broadly “socially disruptive behavior,” and mass terrorism aspects should not be overlooked, but the fusion of advanced military capabilities with irregular forces and tactics is key, and has appeared repeatedly during the past decade from Hezbollah to the Russian campaigns in Georgia and Ukraine.55 Hezbollah’s method of fighting Israel as is described by its leader Hassan Nasrallah, is an organic response to its security dilemma and “not a conventional army and not a guerrilla force, it is something in between.”56 As lethal as Hezbollah has been in the past decade, we should be concerned about the lessons it is learning in Syria from the Russians.57
Hybrid threats can also be created by a state actor using a proxy force. A proxy force sponsored by a major power can generate hybrid threats readily using advanced military capabilities provided by the sponsor. Proxy wars, appealing to some as “warfare on the cheap” are historically ubiquitous but chronically understudied.58
16. The West is uniting to confront China. How worried should Beijing be?
CNN · by Nectar Gan, Jill Disis and Ben Westcott
17. NATO to look eastward and inward at summit
Defense News · by Sebastian Sprenger · June 13, 2021
Excerpts: “The summit is also expected to formally order the production of a new NATO strategic concept, to conclude within a year. That work amounts to a wholesale revision of alliance guidance, to which member nations align their national defense plans. The most recent concept hails from 2010, predating Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine that changed the strategic calculus for European governments.
“The new strategic concept would be a milestone, as so many issues regarding threats and deterrence flow from it,” said German lawmaker Tobias Lindner, the Green Party’s point man for defense issues in the Bundestag.
The topic of deterrence — nuclear, that is — is expected to make a reprise in Germany following the federal election in late September, where the Greens have a shot at joining the next governing coalition, according to recent polls.
Whenever major defense questions come up in the country, Germany’s continued participation in NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement — meaning German Tornado aircraft carrying U.S. atomic bombs into a hypothetical war – ends up on the table.
18. Biden’s B3W proposal no serious threat to China’s BRI
asiatimes.com · by Dnyanesh Kamat · June 14, 2021
I expect to see a lot of this criticism. I had expected to read more already but perhaps it is just too soon.
As I understand it, funding from BRI does have strings attached. The biggest being if you default on the loans.
But here is the author's view in conclusion: “The world would rather sign up to BRI projects, based on hard-nosed realpolitik, than America’s B3W, based on woolly feel-good values that the US is very obviously only paying lip service to.
B3W found a vague single-line mention in the communiqué issued at the end of the recent Group of Seven summit. This is perhaps a sign that the rest of the G7 members recognized it for what it was – verbal gimmickry aimed at a domestic audience by a newly elected president desperate for a foreign-policy victory.
19. Biden meets with foreign leaders as ambassadorships sit vacant
The Hill · by Brett Samuels · June 13, 2021
20. The Party Is Not Forever | by Minxin Pei
project-syndicate.org · by Minxin Pei · June 11, 2021
I had not heard this thesis before. Xi is adopting the north Korean model??
Excerpts: “That is perhaps why the Singapore model has lost its luster in the Xi era, whereas the North Korean model – totalitarian political repression, a cult of the supreme leader, and juche (economic self-reliance) – has grown more appealing. True, China has not yet become a giant North Korea, but a number of trends over the last eight years have moved the country in that direction.
...
Politically, the rule of fear has returned, not only for ordinary people, but also for the CPC’s elites, as Xi has reinstated purges under the guise of a perpetual anti-corruption campaign. Censorship is at its highest level in the post-Mao era, and Xi’s regime has all but eliminated space for civil society, including NGOs. The authorities have even reined in China’s freewheeling private entrepreneurs with regulatory crackdowns, criminal prosecution, and confiscation of wealth.
And Xi has assiduously nurtured a personality cult. These days, the front page of the People’s Daily newspaper is filled with coverage of Xi’s activities and personal edicts. The abridged history of the CPC, recently released to mark the party’s centennial, devotes a quarter of its content to Xi’s eight years in power, while giving only half as much space to Deng Xiaoping, the CPC’s true savior.
Economically, China has yet to embrace juche fully. But the CPC’s new Five-Year Plan projects a vision of technological self-sufficiency and economic security centered on domestic growth. Although the party has a reasonable excuse – America’s strategy of economic and technological decoupling leaves it no alternative – few Western democracies will want to remain economically coupled with a country that sees North Korea as its future political model.
When China’s leaders toast the CPC’s centennial, they should ask whether the party is on the right track. If it is not, the CPC’s upcoming milestone may be its last.
21. US father and son admit helping Ghosn flee Japan
asiatimes.com · by Hiroshi Hiyama · June 14, 2021
Japan has an extremely high conviction rate because they do not go to trial until defendants effectively confess or plead guilty.
22. Why We Can’t Move On From Jan. 6
WSJ · by Peggy Noonan
23. Analysis: Mystery of 1999 US stealth jet shootdown returns with twist
Some fascinating "analysis."
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"I am a Soldier, I fight where I am told, and I win where I fight."
- George S. Patton
“People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.”
- Richard Grenier while discussing the works of George Orwell
"American soldiers in battle don't fight for what some president says on T.V., they don't fight for mom, apple pie, the American flag...they fight for one another."
-Hal Moore