Force Modernization and Readiness. A Zero Sum Game? By W. Jonathan Rue at War on the Rocks.
... Having made the decision not to size the military for large-scale, protracted ground combat, policymakers are attempting to prioritize modernization and readiness at the expense of personnel. There are, however, worrying signs that readiness is being sacrificed, and that budgetary pressure will result in the very thing we wish to avoid: a hollow military, which will make it impossible to project real power...
Comments
A military bureaucracy can react in three ways to budget cuts
* ignore them, do nothing special
(most likely to happen if it perceives the cuts as temporary)
* make the best of the budget
(least unlikely if it perceives the cuts as permanent)
* react tactically and build up pain in order to get the cuts reverted
(a classic principal-agent and weak civilian control case)
I bet on the third because of all the established whining about 'hollow forces', the strong sense of entitlement to big budgets, the inability to change the budget balance (roughly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3) between the services, the perceived necessity to bolster naval and air power just in case the Pacific goes hot and the widespread understanding that large scale military adventures will resume at the latest a few years after a 90% Afghanistan withdrawal.
So basically I expect the U.S.Army leadership to hollow out the army intentionally while keeping the officer corps intact. I expect them to fight this way for more funds.