Small Wars Journal

Ukraine: WAR BULLETIN April 3, 7.00 pm EST - Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and fourthday of large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation against our state continues.

Tue, 04/04/2023 - 9:32am

 

Embassy of Ukraine in the USA

 

WAR BULLETIN

April 3, 7.00 pm EST

 

 

During the day, the enemy carried out 3 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 20 attacks from MLRS systems on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.

During a working trip to the Chernihiv region, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić who is visiting our country for the second time since the beginning of the full-scale aggression.

President of Ukraine held talks with Vice Chancellor, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany Robert Habeck in the Chernihiv region.

The successes of our people in the battles for the Chernihiv, Sumy and Kyiv regions revealed to the world the truth that Ukraine is capable of emerging victorious from this war - President on the occasion of the anniversary of the de-occupation of the Chernihiv region.

Every day we are getting stronger, every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account - address by the President of Ukraine

Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal - address by the President of Ukraine on April 2.

Ukraine and Romania to hold First Black Sea Security Conference of International Crimea. Platform in Bucharest.

IMF Executive Board approved USD 15.6 billion for Ukraine under a New Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program.

Business activity expectations index almost reaches its neutral level – business outlook survey in March.

 

WAR ROOM

 

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.2022 to 03.04.2023 were approximately:

personnel ‒ about 175160 (+610) persons,

tanks ‒ 3619 (+1),

APV ‒ 6993 (+7),

artillery systems – 2694 (+7),

MLRS – 527,

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 280 (+1),

aircraft – 306,

helicopters – 291,

UAV operational-tactical level – 2262 (+13),

cruise missiles ‒ 911,

warships / boats ‒ 18,

vehicles and fuel tanks – 5553 (+16),

special equipment ‒ 298 (+2).

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wn3s1CjQg37QBB9JM6nnzeJqzasbKf5TpAhfkj2pXTe8QCjX1eC965dkwAvwyVmdl?locale=uk_UA 

 

Operational information as of 18.00

Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and fourth day of large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation against our state continues.

During the day, the enemy carried out 3 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 20 attacks from MLRS systems on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.

The probability of launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.

The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions. Thanks to the coordinated actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the heroism of each soldier, more than 45 enemy attacks were repelled during the day. Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.

In the Volyn, Polissiya, Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the operational situation has not changed significantly, and no signs of formations of enemy offensive groups have been detected. Certain units of the armed forces of the republic of belarus continue to perform tasks in the areas bordering Ukraine. The russian federation will continue to use the airspace and territory of the republic of belarus, its military infrastructure. The training of units of the armed forces of the russian federation is carried out on belarusian training grounds.

The presence of enemy units in the border areas of the Kursk and Belgorod regions is maintained.

During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Zapsilya and Myropyllya in the Sumy region, as well as the settlements of Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zybine, Volokhivka, Rublene, and Vilkhuvatka in the Kharkiv region.

Kamianka, Petro-Ivanivka, Dvorichna, Kutkivka, Zapadne, Masyutivka of the Kharkiv region came under enemy fire in the Kupyansk direction; Krokhmalne in Luhansk region and Terna and Serebryanka in Donetsk region.

In the Lyman direction, during the day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Nevsky and Serebryansk forestry. Makiivka, Nevske, Belogorivka of the Luhansk region and Vesele, Spirne and Rozdolivka of the Donetsk region were hit by artillery fire.

In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, and continues to storm it. He led unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske. During the day, units of the defense forces repelled about 20 enemy attacks on the specified section of the battle line. Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Ozaryanivka, Dachne, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region suffered from enemy shelling.

On the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Severnoy, Pervomaisky and Maryinka. At the same time, the enemy shelled Avdiivka, Vodyane, Severne, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Georgiyivka, Maryinka, and Pobyeda of the Donetsk region.

During the day, the enemy did not conduct offensive operations in the Shakhtarsk direction. Unmanned aerial vehicles were actively used to adjust artillery fire. He shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, Velika Novosilka, and Vremivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy did not conduct active operations, but increased its defense capabilities. He carried out shelling of populated areas, which are next to the line of military confrontation. Among them are Olhivske, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as the city of Kherson.

In the Skadovsky district of the Kherson region, the so-called russian occupation authorities have started compiling lists of local residents who agree to "evacuate" to Crimea or the territory of the russian federation. It is known that the "evacuation" will be carried out on a voluntary basis for the time being, primarily women and children will be taken out.

The aviation of the defense forces struck 5 times during the day on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers. Our defenders also shot down an enemy reconnaissance UAV.

Units of missile forces and artillery, in turn, struck the area where the enemy's manpower was concentrated.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fJnei1XUxCBb5aBXoRwayujUzyHpDz9N4QYet1CStt7M52FGPkviBJBN8NodMCNLl?locale=uk_UA

 

 

 

POLICY

President of Ukraine

 

President held a meeting with the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in Chernihiv

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/glava-derzhavi-proviv-u-chernigovi-zustrich-iz-generalnim-se-82065

 

President of Ukraine held talks with Vice Chancellor, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany Robert Habeck in the Chernihiv region

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/na-chernigivshini-prezident-ukrayini-proviv-peregovori-z-vic-82061

Every day we are getting stronger, every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account - address by the President of Ukraine

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A report on this busy day.

Staff. Another away meeting of the Staff - the first was in Dnipro, now - in Chernihiv.

Key security issues at the front, in the northern regions and at the border.

The commanders of the directions delivered reports. This time, Generals Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi reported by secure communication line, and not in person, from the hottest areas of the front.

The situation in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka and throughout the Donetsk region. Bilohorivka and the entire Luhansk region.

The Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Head of the State Border Guard Service, representatives of the Ministry of Defense.

Full-fledged meeting. Full-fledged coordination. Full-fledged preparation of our active actions for the liberation of Ukrainian lands.

There were many different events and negotiations in the Chernihiv region starting from this morning.

One of the most difficult trips in terms of emotions.

We visited Yahidne, an ordinary small village of our Chernihiv region, which Russian savages turned into one of the world's biggest examples of human abuse last year.

Russian soldiers made a command post at the school in Yahidne, and drove all the villagers into the basement of the school. Just like a human shield.

From March 3 to March 30 of last year, the occupiers kept more than three hundred people in the basement of this school... An ordinary village school, the basement, which is smaller than two hundred square meters.

Elderly people and little children, women and men... The oldest woman was 93 years old, the youngest child was less than six months old.

We will never forgive the evil state for this basement, this concentration camp in Yahidne, just as for all other crimes of Russia against people and humanity. And not only us.

The Kremlin will not be able to hide behind a chair in the UN Security Council, gas pipes or anything else. There will certainly be legal and fair responsibility for every Russian crime committed on Ukrainian soil. In the tribunal, in the International Criminal Court, in Ukrainian courts.

I am grateful to the guests of Ukraine who visited the Chernihiv region with me, who saw this concentration of Russian evil in our Yahidne. I thank German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić. I am also thankful for the negotiations - meaningful and correct.

I thank UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay for her attention to Ukraine, for today's meetings in Ukraine. We are preparing the UNESCO World Heritage status for the historical center of Chernihiv. The same status that was recently obtained for the historical center of our Odesa.

As always, it was a special honor to visit our warriors in the hospital, who are recovering from battle wounds. To thank them for everything they do for Ukraine, to thank them for their faith in Ukraine, which our people defend, risking the most valuable - their lives.

I presented Chernihiv with the award of a hero city, a city of heroes. Chernihiv saw different occupiers, different kinds of evil... Protecting ourselves from this Russian evil is perhaps the most important thing in our history.

I awarded our warriors who distinguished themselves in the defense of the state.

And what is very important - I thanked everyone who ensures the reconstruction of our Chernihiv region. We will restore everything that the enemy destroyed.

Ukraine will never be a country of ruins, no matter how much the Kremlin dreams of it. Their dreams do not come true.

Already here, in Kyiv, after my return, I met with a delegation of American congressmen.

I thanked America for its consistently powerful help, from President Biden and the White House team to both houses of Congress and the entire system of American power.

We talked, of course, about the active actions of Ukraine. Of course, about our joint victory.

I also met with Mike Pompeo, former United States Secretary of State

I am grateful to everyone who helps us defend freedom! I am especially thankful today to Denmark and Norway for the initiative of the governments to transfer an additional batch of artillery shells to our warriors. This is very timely and useful.

We are getting stronger every day. Every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine! May the memory of all those who gave their lives for Ukraine be blessed and eternal!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/shodnya-stayemo-micnishimi-shodnya-nablizhayemo-den-koli-der-82073

 

Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal - address by the President of Ukraine

April 2

Today, Russian terrorists again struck at Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. At ordinary residential blocks. Six people were killed by this Russian shelling. Three women, three men. Ordinary people of an ordinary town in Donbas. My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased...

Another 11 people were wounded. Russia used S-300 missiles and the Uragan MLRS against Kostiantynivka.

This morning, Russian terrorists also attacked the Konotop district of the Sumy region. Mortar fire. Two people were killed. My condolences to all relatives, friends, all families...

These are just a few examples of dozens of hits per day. There is only one way to stop Russian terror, to restore security to all our cities and communities - from Sumy region to Donbas, from Kharkiv region to Kherson region, from Kyiv region to Yalta. And this is Ukraine’s military victory. There is no other way and there will be no other way.

The evil state for which it has become the norm to hit residential buildings with "Uragan" like this, to launch S-300 missiles at cities, to shell ordinary villages, people... The evil state must be defeated. In every sense of the word. Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal. The first point is military. And it will face it.

I thank everyone who brings this time closer! I am grateful to our warriors who are fighting near Avdiivka, Maryinka, near Bakhmut... Especially Bakhmut! It's especially hot there today! Near Bilohorivka, near Kreminna and all our other cities, towns and villages of Donbas! The resilience of everyone is the resilience of the whole of Ukraine, helping everyone in a position nearby is helping the whole of Ukraine!

Thank you to everyone who protects Zaporizhzhia, Kherson region, the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region and Kharkiv, Sumy region and Chernihiv region... To everyone who protects our border. Who saves our people from injuries, from pain.

Of course I would like to separately thank everyone who trains our warriors, as it is on powerful training that a successful combat result is based.

Today, April 2, we celebrate the anniversary of the liberation of our Kyiv region from the rashist army. On April 2, the last occupier fled from the territory of the Kyiv region.

There will be a day when we will say: the last occupier has fled or been killed in the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson region and in our entire south. Crimea will be free and safe again. Ukraine will return all its territories.

Next week will be especially important for our defense, for our advancement towards victory. We are already preparing for scheduled events and decisions.

The key thing now is to cherish our unity, take care of our defenders, help each other and the state.

Full address:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/rashizm-povinen-projti-cherez-povnu-porazku-vijskovu-ekonomi-82037

 

Prime Minister of Ukraine

 

Platform in Bucharest

03 April 2023 14:39 CET

The unprovoked and unjustified military aggression of russia against Ukraine has challenged the security system in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions. In order to find effective ways to respond to these challenges and provide opportunities for sustainable development to all peaceful countries of the region, Ukraine initiated the First Black Sea Security Conference, which will be held jointly with Romania on April 12-13 in Bucharest.

This event is a part of the International Crimea Platform, a mechanism aimed at the de-occupation of Crimea, restoration of the Black Sea, European, and global security.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ukraina-ta-rumuniia-provedut-v-bukharesti-pershu-chornomorsku-bezpekovu-konferentsiiu-mizhnarodnoi-krymskoi-platformy

 

 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 

Dmytro Kuleba to pay a visit to Brussels

On April 3-4, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba will pay a working visit to Brussels to participate in an official meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.

 

This will be the first meeting of the Commission at the level of foreign ministers with the participation of Ukraine since 2017.

 

The Head of Ukrainian diplomacy will hold important talks in the context of preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius in July.

 

Dmytro Kuleba will also discuss in detail steps to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including new arms supplies and ammunition production, increased sanctions pressure on russia, the establishment of a Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, and humanitarian aid.

 

During the visit, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister will also hold separate bilateral meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell, EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth Mariya Gabriel, and foreign ministers of partner countries.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/dmytro-kuleba-zdiisnyt-vizyt-do-briusselia

 

FINANCE

The Ministry of Finance

IMF Executive Board approved USD 15.6 billion for Ukraine under a New Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program

On 31 March the IMF Board approved a new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program for Ukraine with financing in the amount of USD 15.6 billion (SDR 11.6 billion).

It is expected that Ukraine may receive the first tranche from the Fund in the near future. And its volume will be about USD 2.7 billion of direct budget funding.

The program includes two phases. The first phase, planned for 2023-24, will focus on implementing a robust budget for 2023 and increasing revenue mobilization, including by avoiding new measures that might erode tax revenues.

The first phase also provides inflation reduction and stability of exchange rate, including through maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves. In addition, measures to promote long-term financial stability are expected, including by preparing a deeper assessment of the banking sector health and further promoting central bank independence.

At the same time, the Government of Ukraine undertakes to support and continue reforms to strengthen the system of governance and fight against corruption, including through amendments to legislation.

During the second phase of the program, the focus will be on reforms that will help to support post-war recovery and reconstruction as efficiently as possible, and will help Ukraine implement the necessary measures on the way to European integration. Long-term economic growth is also one of the priorities of the second phase of the EFF program.

It is planned that during the second phase, Ukraine will return to the pre-war policy framework, in particular, to a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting. At the same time, there will be a focus on implementing essential structural reforms in fiscal policies to stabilize medium-term revenues by introducing a national revenue strategy, and also launching public finance management and introducing public investment management reforms that will aid in the post-war reconstruction process. To help the post-war reform endeavors, it is necessary to improve competition in the crucial energy sector, while reducing quasi-fiscal liabilities.

In turn, the Government of Ukraine commits to:

●      strengthen policies that sustain fiscal, external, price and financial stability;

●      support economic recovery while enhancing governance and strengthening institutions to promote long-term growth in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction and European integration path.

Despite the conditions of extremely high uncertainty in Ukraine, the EFF program is a pillar of cooperation with various international partners and paves the way for large-scale funding from donors, including the G7 countries and the European Union.

Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko stated:

“We are grateful to the Fund's Board for the decision regarding the Extended Fund Facility Program for Ukraine. Unprecedented work was done to achieve the result, because this is an exceptional case of providing an IMF program to a warring country. The EFF program will significantly strengthen the economy and financial system, while facilitating the mobilization of additional financial resources from donors. Currently, Ukraine is at the beginning of a new stage of cooperation both with the International Monetary Fund and with partner countries.”

https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/imf_executive_board_approved_usd_156_billion_for_ukraine_under_a_new_extended_fund_facility_eff_program-3911

 

Sergii Marchenko met with Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Sigrid Kaag

On 2 April Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko met with First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Sigrid Kaag.

The parties discussed the state of Ukraine's financial system, cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, post-war recovery and reconstruction, and the strengthening of sanctions against russia.

"I am grateful to the Government and people of the Netherlands for their significant financial, military and humanitarian support. It is very important for us in our struggle to defeat the aggressor," said Sergii Marchenko.

The Minister of Finance of Ukraine outlined the state of the economy after more than a year of full-scale war, emphasizing that the country has adapted to the new conditions and maintained stability despite all the challenges: "The Government of Ukraine continues to function fully, providing all basic and vital services to the population."

Sergii Marchenko noted that international partners have confirmed their intention to support the country in financing the current year's State Budget deficit in full. In particular, the recent decision of the IMF to launch a new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program for Ukraine in the amount of USD 15.6 billion was an important milestone.

Ukraine also needs significant resources to recover the country. According to the RDNA2 report by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery needs are estimated at approximately USD 411 billion.

At the same time, in 2023, Ukraine needs USD 14 billion to implement rapid recovery, including the restoration of energy, housing, critical and social infrastructure, basic services for the most vulnerable, humanitarian demining and private sector development.

The Minister of Finance of Ukraine noted that he counts on the support of international partners in the realization of a rapid and large-scale recovery. The new Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform for Ukraine involving the G7 countries and the European Commission should become a reliable tool for mobilizing and coordinating the necessary funding.

https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/sergii_marchenko_met_with_minister_of_finance_of_the_netherlands_sigrid_kaag-3912

 

The National Bank of Ukraine

Business activity expectations index almost reaches its neutral level – business outlook survey in March

A more benign external environment, reestablished supply chains, the improved functioning of the energy sector and rebounding consumer sentiment had a positive effect on business expectations in March. Companies across all of the surveyed sectors reported more optimistic expectations of their business performance and future economic outlook.

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from the forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI, at 49.5, almost reached its neutral level in March 2023, compared to 45.0 in February. This is a high not seen since December 2021.

Trading companies reported the most optimistic expectations of their business performance and future economic outlook on the back of rebounding consumer sentiment, the improved supply of electric power and an increase in the supply of goods. In March, the sector’s index moved above its neutral level for the first time since November 2021, hitting 53.6 (compared to 47.0 in February). Companies markedly improved their views about their trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale. On the back of softer expectations for purchase prices, respondents declared intentions to cut their trade margins slightly.

The improved functioning of the energy sector, reestablished supply chains and a more benign external environment had a positive effect on industrial companies’ expectations. For the first time since February 2022, industrial companies expected more robust economic performance compared to the previous month, as the sector’s DI moved above its neutral level, to 51.2, up from 47.2 in February 2023. Respondents expected an increase in the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders. Respondents markedly softened their negative expectations for the amount of unfinished products (unfulfilled orders), while also reporting weaker expectations for a rise in finished goods stocks.

On the back of seasonal factors, construction companies noticeably improved their negative performance expectations, the sector’s DI being 45.9 in March, up from 33.5 in February. Respondents reported intentions to purchase more raw materials and supplies and contractor services. At the same time, construction companies expected no changes in their construction volumes. They also significantly softened their negative expectations for the number of new orders.

Despite there being a seasonal revival, services companies reported the gloomiest economic outlook, the sector’s index being 45.7, up from 43.2 in February. Respondents somewhat improved their still pessimistic expectations for the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided.

Most polled companies said they expected that purchase and contractor prices would grow at a slower pace. They also declared weaker intentions to raise their selling prices.

Employment expectations remained guarded. Companies across all polled sectors still report no intentions to expand their workforces. Trading companies reported the least pessimistic expectations.

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/indeks-ochikuvan-dilovoyi-aktivnosti-mayje-dosyag-rivnovajnogo-rivnya--rezultati-opituvannya-pidpriyemstv-u-berezni

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During the day, the adversary fired on the settlements of Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zybine, Volokhivka, Rublene, and Vilkhuvatka in the Kharkiv area, as well as Zapsilya and Myropyllya in the Sumy region. Additionally, they shelled the settlements of Zapsilya and color by number Myropyllya in the Sumy region. 

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