Feedback Loops: Mexican Immigration Trends

Over the past couple of years, SWJ authors have been on the forefront of both design thinking and the situation in Mexico. Recently, Ben Zweibelson attempted to merge the two in Cartel Next: How Army Design Methodology Offers Holistic and Dissimilar Approaches to the Mexican Drug Problem. While Design, as a compliment to good planning, provides decision makers with a description of the current situation, in and of itself, it does not provide a solution.

One way to "see" the problem is through causal loop diagrams which Ben highlights throughout his paper, but seeing and interpreting the loops requires two different methods. One assumed driver in the ongoing conflict is the border issue that illegal immigration into the United States facilitates the ease of illicit drug trafficking. In turn, ungoverned areas along the border are filled with high violence and high crime, and local criminal groups will fill these security gaps only perpetuating the problem. These are feedback loops that build upon each other.

When analyzing these loops for causation and possible intervention, it is extremely important to understand the outliers or changes in the assumptions. Last week, a discussion panel on The Diane Rehm Show explored one significant change- illegal immigration into the United States is decreasing.

BLUF. For decades people from Mexico and Central America found a way into this country, some legally but many more illegally. In recent years there's been a dramatic shift: the numbers of legal immigrants have risen, but illegal immigration rates have dropped precipitously. Diminished job prospects here in the U.S., a somewhat improved economic picture in Mexico, and the many risks associated with illegal border crossings may explain the shift, at least in part. Join us for a discussion of what's behind the declining numbers of illegal immigrants in to this country from Mexico and Central America and political and economic implications.

What the implications of this shift? Why did it happen? Is it sustainable? How will it effect the rest of the situation?

Lots of important questions to add to the ongoing conversation.