News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.
1. FDD | China's Coercion threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance
2. Coddling Pyongyang will only fuel Kim Jong Un's brinkmanship
3. Trump continually reassessing U.S. overseas military presence: White House
4. Would Donald Trump pull U.S. Troops from South Korea?
5. Pyongyang sends mixed signals on liaison office
6. Kim Jong-un reappears in public - again - as Korean reunification talks hurtle towards 'failure'
7. Kim Jong Un led a Politburo meeting - here's what was discussed
8. Commentary: How is North Korea laundering money - and getting away with it?
9. North Korean leader ditches his usual dull attire
10. Tempers flare as South Korean villagers stop activists from sending rice, face masks to North
11. Seoul keeps low key despite Pyongyang's words of threat
12. Progress made on Mirim Parade Training Ground: Paving of Roads and Interior Areas
13. A lesson that should never be forgotten
14. Ex-US envoy Lippert to head YouTube's Asia-Pacific regional policy
15. Explainer: Pyongyang calling - What we know about the hotlines to North Korea
16. Don't bother calling us, North Korea tells South, as Kim's sister dials up threats
17. North Korea isn't talking to the South anymore. Experts say it could be trying to manufacture a crisis
18. N. Korea's fury over leafleting shows it can never take mudslinging of Kim's leadership
19. S. Korea 'closely communicating' with U.S. about N.K. decision to sever all inter-Korean phone lines
1. FDD | China's Coercion threatens ROK-U.S. Alliance
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha Research Analyst · June 1, 2020
From my colleague Mathew Ha.
2. Coddling Pyongyang will only fuel Kim Jong Un's brinkmanship
donga.com · June 9, 2020
Exactly. We are teaching Kim that his blackmail diplomacy works. The author accuses South Korea of falling back on appeasement. He also thinks Kim will use the US election "to make his presence felt." The concluding sentence is instructive. I think this explains the present north-South relationship.
3. Trump continually reassessing U.S. overseas military presence: White House
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 9, 2020
The White House spokeswoman is providing the message for the burden-sharing negotiations. There should be no doubt the White House wants the Germany troop decision to serve as a warning to South Korea.
When President Trump says he can go either way on troop presence in South Korea we need to keep in mind one significant difference with the situation in Germany. The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) says that no money will be appropriated to reduce the number of US forces below 28,500 troops unless the secretary of defense can certify the reduction does not harm the national security of the United States and its allies. The key question is if the President wants to withdraw forces from Korea the SECDEF will have to make this certification. Will he do that and how will he spin the facts to say there will be no harm to US or ROK national security.
Removing troops from Korea (and Germany) will be hugely expensive and the funds are no programmed in the FY 2020 budget. And the logistics and personnel issues of withdrawing troops (and their equipment and dependents) from both Korea and Germany will be very complex and difficult. A key question is has the Pentagon conducted the contingency planning?
I have written extensively on this issue.
Please see pages 65-67 here. The ROK-US Alliance: One American's Perspective Now And For The Future
See also this paper: U.S.-ROK Relations An Ironclad Alliance or a Transactional House of Cards?
4. Would Donald Trump pull U.S. Troops from South Korea?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 8, 2020
I think the operative word is "could."
As I wrote in my previous message: The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) says that no money will be appropriated to reduce the number of US forces below 28,500 troops unless the secretary of defense can certify the reduction does not harm the national security of the United States and its allies. Mr. DePetris says the NDAA prevents the withdrawal but as I wrote if the SECDEF is willing to certify there is no harm to national security of the ROK and US Congress may in fact appropriate the funds to withdraw the troops. So yes, he could.
The sad irony is I believe both Moon and Trump would like US troops removed but neither wants to make the decision. Instead this is almost like a face off and trying to make the other one blink first. If Moon made the decision to not fund US troops and tell the US to take the troops home Trump would be very happy (and one thing the US is consistent about, if the host nation asks us to leave we will leave and leave quickly). But Moon does not want to have as his legacy the President who force the removal of US troops. Moon would rather Trump made the decision to withdraw because then he would shoulder less of the blame. But neither want the responsibility for what is very likely to happen next if US troops are withdrawn which is the very real possibility of war. Additionally, China and Russia would be very happy to see US troops go. And obviously a key element of north Korean strategy is to get US forces off the peninsula. Sadly, the only leader that does not want US forces off the peninsula is Prime Minister Abe.
5. Pyongyang sends mixed signals on liaison office
koreajoongangdaily · by Shim Kyu-seok · June 8, 2020
The appearance of mixed messages perhaps. The liaison office issue is just a small part of the larger issues. I think we should consider that north Korea does not want to deal with South Korea as an equal. It wants to either extort concessions or if unsuccessful in obtaining concessions wants to use the South for blame for the suffering in the north. And of course, it is deathly afraid of the information and influence activities being conducted by the escapees from north Korea.
6. Kim Jong-un reappears in public - again - as Korean reunification talks hurtle towards 'failure'
RFI · by Jan van der Made · June 8, 2020
Seems like the author is getting ahead of the process or making a great leap. I do not recall aunt recent unification talks between North and South. But as I read to the end of the article, I believe he is talking about family reunion or "reunification" talks. But the article gives a pretty good rundown of the North's insults and actions toward the South.
7. Kim Jong Un led a Politburo meeting - here's what was discussed
americanmilitarynews.com · June 8, 2020
Chemical factories, "dwelling houses" and living conditions, "party-rule" related matters, an organizational matter.
8. Commentary: How is North Korea laundering money - and getting away with it?
channelnewsasia.com · by Steven Borowiec · June 9, 2020
The regime is very creative and resilient. And yes, we can and must do more to stop the regime's illicit activities. But even as we do more the regime is very adaptive and will develop new tactics, techniques, and procedures, to continue to obtain hard currency for the regime. But we cannot use that as an excuse not to all that we can to maintain maximum pressure.
9. North Korean leader ditches his usual dull attire
Daily Mail · by Sophie Tanno · June 8, 2020
It is after Memorial Day so I guess wearing white is okay within the rules of fashion.
10. Tempers flare as South Korean villagers stop activists from sending rice, face masks to North
SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · June 8, 2020
It pains me to read this. No Korean should ever deny information flow to the North.
11. Seoul keeps low key despite Pyongyang's words of threat
donga.com · June 8, 2020
Seoul is faced with two threats. One from Pyongyang and the other the implied threat of US troop withdrawal.
12. Progress made on Mirim Parade Training Ground: Paving of Roads and Interior Areas
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · June 8, 2020
Kim says "I love a parade." With all the sacrifice and suffering in the North is the really the kind of infrastructure development that should be a priority? This is just another indication of the nature of the Kim family regime and emphasizes the cultist nature of the mafia like crime family cult. We need to build storage facilities that can hold and protect tele-erector launchers (TELs) for the parade while millions of Koreans in the north are food insecure.
13. A lesson that should never be forgotten
donga.com · June 9, 2020
Another example of the shared values in our great ROK/US Alliance. But the message is in the final paragraph.
14. Ex-US envoy Lippert to head YouTube's Asia-Pacific regional policy
en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · June 9, 2020
I hope he is able to fight censorship of YouTube in South Korea.
15. Explainer: Pyongyang calling - What we know about the hotlines to North Korea
Reuters · by Josh Smith · June 9, 2020
Note the "high tech" communications gear - a modern Army TA-312 field phone and a fax machine. I believe the UN Command provided the fax machine and the field phone (and batteries) to the North Koreans on their side of Panmunjom. (though the text describes computers, USB drives (which I hope are scanned for malware), and color-coded handsets).
16. Don't bother calling us, North Korea tells South, as Kim's sister dials up threats
The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim and Simon Denyer · June 9, 2020
I think the new analysis is Kim Yo-jong is asserting her authority to demonstrate her power. Also, a key point from the article is the regime is exploiting the South's desire for better relations. The South "badly" wants better relations from the north. As the saying goes when you want something bad you get it bad.
17. North Korea isn't talking to the South anymore. Experts say it could be trying to manufacture a crisis
CNN · by Joshua Berlinger and Jake Kwon · June 9, 2020
Manufacture a crisis? Say it ain't so. That is the essence of the regime's strategy of subversion, coercion/extortion (e.g., blackmail diplomacy) and use of force to dominate the peninsula. Blackmail diplomacy uses increased tensions (or manufactured crises or even the threat of crises) and provocations to obtain political and economic concessions. North Korean escapee's information and influence activities (balloon launches with leaflets, etc or plastic bottles filled with rice, leaflets, USB drives and money floated across the Han River) is the excuse to "manufacture a crisis." But information and influence activities are real crisis for the Kim family regime. These influence operations are having a positive effect on the Korean people in the North and thus a threat to the legitimacy and survival of the regime.
18. N. Korea's fury over leafleting shows it can never take mudslinging of Kim's leadership
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 9, 2020
The number one rule in North Korea is you do not insult the Supreme, Great, or Dear Leader (or boy general) Marshall Kim Jong-un. Please always show respect for his rotund heinousness (or is that highness?)
19. S. Korea 'closely communicating' with U.S. about N.K. decision to sever all inter-Korean phone lines
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 9, 2020
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"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
- Evelyn Beatrice Hall in The Friends of Voltaire (1906)
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